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Proxy-based reconstructions and modeling of Holocene spatiotemporal precipitation patterns for China and Mongolia have hitherto yielded contradictory results indicating that the basic mechanisms behind the East Asian Summer Monsoon and its interaction with the westerly jet stream remain poorly understood. We present quantitative reconstructions of Holocene precipitation derived from 101 fossil pollen records and analyse them with the help of a minimal empirical model. We show that the westerly jet-stream axis shifted gradually southward and became less tilted since the middle Holocene. This was tracked by the summer monsoon rain band resulting in an early-Holocene precipitation maximum over most of western China, a mid-Holocene maximum in north-central and northeastern China, and a late-Holocene maximum in southeastern China. Our results suggest that a correct simulation of the orientation and position of the westerly jet stream is crucial to the reliable prediction of precipitation patterns in China and Mongolia.
Variations in regional temperature have widespread implications for society, but our understanding of the amplitude and origin of long-term natural variability is insufficient for accurate regional projections. This is especially the case for terrestrial temperature variability, which is currently thought to be weak over long timescales. By performing spectral analysis on climate reconstructions, produced using sedimentary pollen records from the Northern Hemisphere over the last 8,000 years, coupled with instrumental data, we provide a comprehensive estimate of regional temperature variability from annual to millennial timescales. We show that short-term random variations are overprinted by strong ocean-driven climate variability on multi-decadal and longer timescales. This may cause substantial and potentially unpredictable regional climatic shifts in the coming century, in contrast to the relatively muted and homogeneous warming projected by climate models. Due to the marine influence, regions characterized by stable oceanic climate at sub-decadal timescales experience stronger long-term variability, and continental regions with higher sub-decadal variability show weaker long-term variability. This fundamental relationship between the timescales provides a unique insight into the emergence of a marine-driven low-frequency regime governing terrestrial climate variability and sets the basis to project the amplitude of temperature fluctuations on multi-decadal timescales and longer.
Temperature variability over land is enhanced by ocean temperature fluctuations on millennial timescales, with implications for regional-scale climate change, according to an analysis of Northern Hemisphere proxy records and observations.
Glacial legacies on interglacial vegetation at the Pliocene-Pleistocene transition in NE Asia
(2016)
Broad-scale climate control of vegetation is widely assumed. Vegetation-climate lags are generally thought to have lasted no more than a few centuries. Here our palaeoecological study challenges this concept over glacial–interglacial timescales. Through multivariate analyses of pollen assemblages from Lake El’gygytgyn, Russian Far East and other data we show that interglacial vegetation during the Plio-Pleistocene transition mainly reflects conditions of the preceding glacial instead of contemporary interglacial climate. Vegetation–climate disequilibrium may persist for several millennia, related to the combined effects of permafrost persistence, distant glacial refugia and fire. In contrast, no effects from the preceding interglacial on glacial vegetation are detected. We propose that disequilibrium was stronger during the Plio-Pleistocene transition than during the Mid-Pliocene Warm Period when, in addition to climate, herbivory was important. By analogy to the past, we suggest today’s widespread larch ecosystem on permafrost is not in climate equilibrium. Vegetation-based reconstructions of interglacial climates used to assess atmospheric CO2–temperature relationships may thus yield misleading simulations of past global climate sensitivity.