The radiocarbon record that has been extended from 7199 BC to 1891 AD is of fundamental importance to understand century-scale variations of solar activity. We have, therefore, studied how to extract information from dynamic reconstructions of this observational record. Using some rather unusual methods of nonlinear dynamics, we have found that the data are significantly different from linear colored noise and that there is some evidence of nonlinear behavior. The method of recurrence plots exhibits that the grand minima of solar activity are quite different in their recurrence. Most remarkably, it suggests that the recent epoch seems to be similar to the Medieval maximum.
Using a special technique of data analysis, we have found out 34 grand minima of solar activity obtained from a 7,700 years long Δ14C record. The method used rests on a proper filtering of the Δ14C record and the extrapolation of verifiable results for the later history back in time. Additionally, we use a method of nonlinear dynamics, the recurrence rate, to back up the results. Our findings are not contradictory to the record of solar maxima resp. minima by Eddy [5], but constitute a considerable extension. Hence, it has become possible to look closer at the validity of models. This way, we have tested several models for solar activity, esp. the model of Barnes et al. [1]. There are hints for that the grand minima might solely be driven by the 209 year period found in the Δ14C record.
In the last decade, there has been an increasing interest in compensating thermally induced errors to improve the manufacturing accuracy of modular tool systems. These modular tool systems are interfaces between spindle and workpiece and consist of several complicatedly formed parts. Their thermal behavior is dominated by nonlinearities, delay and hysteresis effects even in tools with simpler geometry and it is difficult to describe it theoretically. Due to the dominant nonlinear nature of this behavior the so far used linear regression between the temperatures and the displacements is insufficient. Therefore, in this study we test the hypothesis whether we can reliably predict such thermal displacements via nonlinear temperature-displacement regression functions. These functions are estimated firstly from learning measurements using the alternating conditional expectation (ACE) algorithm and then tested on independent data sets. First, we analyze data that were generated by a finite element spindle model. We find that our approach is a powerful tool to describe the relation between temperatures and displacements for simulated data. Next, we analyze the temperature-displacement relationship in a silent real experimental setup, where the tool system is thermally forced. Again, the ACE-algorithm is powerful to estimate the deformation with high precision. The corresponding errors obtained by using the nonlinear regression approach are 10-fold lower in comparison to multiple linear regression analysis. Finally, we investigate the thermal behavior of a modular tool system in a working milling machine and get again promising results. The thermally induced errors can be estimated with 1-2${mu m}$ accuracy using this nonlinear regression analysis. Therefore, this approach seems to be very useful for the development of new modular tool systems.
A new globally uniform Lagrangian transport scheme for large ensembles of passive tracer particles is presented and applied to wind data from a coupled atmosphere-ocean climate model that includes interactive dynamical feedback with stratospheric chemistry. This feedback from the chemistry is found to enhance large-scale meridional air mass exchange in the northern winter stratosphere as well as intrusion of stratospheric air into the troposphere, where both effects are due to a weakened polar vortex.
The structure of time series and letter sequences is investigated using the concepts of entropy and complexity. First conditional entropy and transinformation are introduced and several generalizations are discussed. Further several measures of complexity are introduced and discussed. The capability of these concepts to describe the structure of time series and letter sequences generated by nonlinear maps, data series from meteorology, astrophysics, cardiology, cognitive psychology and finance is investigated. The relation between the complexity and the predictability of informational strings is discussed. The relation between local order and the predictability of time series is investigated.
Estimation of parameters and unobserved components for nonlinear systems from noisy time series
(2002)
We study the problem of simultaneous estimation of parameters and unobserved states from noisy data of nonlinear time-continuous systems, including the case of additive stochastic forcing. We propose a solution by adapting the recently developed statistical method of unscented Kalman filtering to this problem. Due to its recursive and derivative-free structure, this method minimizes the cost function in a computationally efficient and robust way. It is found that parameters as well as unobserved components can be estimated with high accuracy, including confidence bands, from heavily noise-corrupted data.
Acoustic emission signals generated during high speed cutting of steel are investigated. The data are represen ted in time-folded form. Several methods from linear and nonlinear data analysis based on time- and frequency- domain are applied to the data and reveal signatures of the observed acoustic emission signal. These investiga tions are necessary for modeling the cutting process by means of differential equations.
We analyse the X-ray light curves of compact objects using linear and nonlinear time series analysis methods. A Power Density Spectrum (PDS) describes the overall second order properties of the observed data well. To look beyond we propose the nonlinear Q-statistic to detect an asymmetry of the time series. This allows us to find relevant time scales. This method even grants a subclassification of the known states of X-ray sources.