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Reproducibility is a defining feature of science, but the extent to which it characterizes current research is unknown. We conducted replications of 100 experimental and correlational studies published in three psychology journals using high-powered designs and original materials when available. Replication effects were half the magnitude of original effects, representing a substantial decline. Ninety-seven percent of original studies had statistically significant results. Thirty-six percent of replications had statistically significant results; 47% of original effect sizes were in the 95% confidence interval of the replication effect size; 39% of effects were subjectively rated to have replicated the original result; and if no bias in original results is assumed, combining original and replication results left 68% with statistically significant effects. Correlational tests suggest that replication success was better predicted by the strength of original evidence than by characteristics of the original and replication teams.
According to coherence-based models of legal judgment, individuals form coherent mental representations to make sense of the available evidence. In this process, evidence supporting the emerging assessment is accentuated, resulting in coherence effects. Dependent on specific implementations of coherence-based models, in legal tasks both overweighting of evidence that is presented early (a primacy effect) or late (a recency effect) can be predicted. In two studies (N-1 = 221, N-2 = 332), we investigate coherence effects, order effects, and their interrelation in a mock legal case. We manipulate the order in which the evidence is presented, and whether or not individuals are induced to assess provisionally whether they deem the defendant guilty after seeing half of the evidence (leaning). This leaning manipulation should increase primacy effects. We consistently observed recency effects and no stronger influence of primacy effects when people indicate a leaning. Order and leaning did not influence the magnitude of coherence effects. In contrast to previous findings in consumer research and risky choice tasks, coherence effects did not mediate the effect of the order in which the evidence in legal judgments is presented. If our results hold more generally, coherence-based models of legal judgment might have to be revised to give more weight to recency effects as compared to the typically predicted primacy effects. This revision would have implications for the design of criminal procedure.