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Rapid decline of glomerular filtration rate estimated from creatinine (eGFRcrea) is associated with severe clinical endpoints. In contrast to cross-sectionally assessed eGFRcrea, the genetic basis for rapid eGFRcrea decline is largely unknown. To help define this, we meta-analyzed 42 genome-wide association studies from the Chronic Kidney Diseases Genetics Consortium and United Kingdom Biobank to identify genetic loci for rapid eGFRcrea decline. Two definitions of eGFRcrea decline were used: 3 mL/min/1.73m(2)/year or more ("Rapid3"; encompassing 34,874 cases, 107,090 controls) and eGFRcrea decline 25% or more and eGFRcrea under 60 mL/min/1.73m(2) at follow-up among those with eGFRcrea 60 mL/min/1.73m(2) or more at baseline ("CKDi25"; encompassing 19,901 cases, 175,244 controls). Seven independent variants were identified across six loci for Rapid3 and/or CKDi25: consisting of five variants at four loci with genome-wide significance (near UMOD-PDILT (2), PRKAG2, WDR72, OR2S2) and two variants among 265 known eGFRcrea variants (near GATM, LARP4B). All these loci were novel for Rapid3 and/or CKDi25 and our bioinformatic follow-up prioritized variants and genes underneath these loci. The OR2S2 locus is novel for any eGFRcrea trait including interesting candidates. For the five genome-wide significant lead variants, we found supporting effects for annual change in blood urea nitrogen or cystatin-based eGFR, but not for GATM or (LARP4B). Individuals at high compared to those at low genetic risk (8-14 vs. 0-5 adverse alleles) had a 1.20-fold increased risk of acute kidney injury (95% confidence interval 1.08-1.33). Thus, our identified loci for rapid kidney function decline may help prioritize therapeutic targets and identify mechanisms and individuals at risk for sustained deterioration of kidney function.
Better land stewardship is needed to achieve the Paris Agreement's temperature goal, particularly in the tropics, where greenhouse gas emissions from the destruction of ecosystems are largest, and where the potential for additional land carbon storage is greatest. As countries enhance their nationally determined contributions (NDCs) to the Paris Agreement, confusion persists about the potential contribution of better land stewardship to meeting the Agreement's goal to hold global warming below 2 degrees C. We assess cost-effective tropical country-level potential of natural climate solutions (NCS)-protection, improved management and restoration of ecosystems-to deliver climate mitigation linked with sustainable development goals (SDGs). We identify groups of countries with distinctive NCS portfolios, and we explore factors (governance, financial capacity) influencing the feasibility of unlocking national NCS potential. Cost-effective tropical NCS offers globally significant climate mitigation in the coming decades (6.56 Pg CO(2)e yr(-1) at less than 100 US$ per Mg CO(2)e). In half of the tropical countries, cost-effective NCS could mitigate over half of national emissions. In more than a quarter of tropical countries, cost-effective NCS potential is greater than national emissions. We identify countries where, with international financing and political will, NCS can cost-effectively deliver the majority of enhanced NDCs while transforming national economies and contributing to SDGs. This article is part of the theme issue 'Climate change and ecosystems: threats, opportunities and solutions'.
Estimating global mean sea-level rise and its uncertainties by 2100 and 2300 from an expert survey
(2020)
Sea-level rise projections and knowledge of their uncertainties are vital to make informed mitigation and adaptation decisions. To elicit projections from members of the scientific community regarding future global mean sea-level (GMSL) rise, we repeated a survey originally conducted five years ago. Under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6, 106 experts projected a likely (central 66% probability) GMSL rise of 0.30-0.65 m by 2100, and 0.54-2.15 m by 2300, relative to 1986-2005. Under RCP 8.5, the same experts projected a likely GMSL rise of 0.63-1.32 m by 2100, and 1.67-5.61 m by 2300. Expert projections for 2100 are similar to those from the original survey, although the projection for 2300 has extended tails and is higher than the original survey. Experts give a likelihood of 42% (original survey) and 45% (current survey) that under the high-emissions scenario GMSL rise will exceed the upper bound (0.98 m) of the likely range estimated by the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which is considered to have an exceedance likelihood of 17%. Responses to open-ended questions suggest that the increases in upper-end estimates and uncertainties arose from recent influential studies about the impact of marine ice cliff instability on the meltwater contribution to GMSL rise from the Antarctic Ice Sheet.
Background: Dietary protein restriction is emerging as an alternative approach to treat obesity and glucose intolerance because it markedly increases plasma fibroblast growth factor 21 (FGF21) concentrations. Similarly, dietary restriction of methionine is known to mimic metabolic effects of energy and protein restriction with FGF21 as a required mechanism. However, dietary protein has been shown to be required for normal bone growth, though there is conflicting evidence as to the influence of dietary protein restriction on bone remodeling. The purpose of the current study was to evaluate the effect of dietary protein and methionine restriction on bone in lean and obese mice, and clarify whether FGF21 and general control nonderepressible 2 (GCN2) kinase, that are part of a novel endocrine pathway implicated in the detection of protein restriction, influence the effect of dietary protein restriction on bone.
Methods: Adult wild-type (WT) or Fgf21 KO mice were fed a normal protein (18 kcal%; CON) or low protein (4 kcal%; LP) diet for 2 or 27 weeks. In addition, adult WT or Gcn2 KO mice were fed a CON or LP diet for 27 weeks. Young New Zealand obese (NZO) mice were placed on high-fat diets that provided protein at control (16 kcal%; CON), low levels (4 kcal%) in a high-carbohydrate (LP/HC) or high-fat (LP/HF) regimen, or on high-fat diets (protein, 16 kcal%) that provided methionine at control (0.86%; CON-MR) or low levels (0.17%; MR) for up to 9 weeks. Long bones from the hind limbs of these mice were collected and evaluated with micro-computed tomography (mu CT) for changes in trabecular and cortical architecture and mass.
Results: In WT mice the 27-week LP diet significantly reduced cortical bone, and this effect was enhanced by deletion of Fgf21 but not Gcn2. This decrease in bone did not appear after 2 weeks on the LP diet. In addition, Fgf21 KO mice had significantly less bone than their WT counterparts. In obese NZO mice dietary protein and methionine restriction altered bone architecture. The changes were mediated by FGF21 due to methionine restriction in the presence of cystine, which did not increase plasma FGF21 levels and did not affect bone architecture.
Conclusions: This study provides direct evidence of a reduction in bone following long-term dietary protein restriction in a mouse model, effects that appear to be mediated by FGF21.
Accurately quantifying species' area requirements is a prerequisite for effective area-based conservation. This typically involves collecting tracking data on species of interest and then conducting home-range analyses. Problematically, autocorrelation in tracking data can result in space needs being severely underestimated. Based on the previous work, we hypothesized the magnitude of underestimation varies with body mass, a relationship that could have serious conservation implications. To evaluate this hypothesis for terrestrial mammals, we estimated home-range areas with global positioning system (GPS) locations from 757 individuals across 61 globally distributed mammalian species with body masses ranging from 0.4 to 4000 kg. We then applied block cross-validation to quantify bias in empirical home-range estimates. Area requirements of mammals <10 kg were underestimated by a mean approximately15%, and species weighing approximately100 kg were underestimated by approximately50% on average. Thus, we found area estimation was subject to autocorrelation-induced bias that was worse for large species. Combined with the fact that extinction risk increases as body mass increases, the allometric scaling of bias we observed suggests the most threatened species are also likely to be those with the least accurate home-range estimates. As a correction, we tested whether data thinning or autocorrelation-informed home-range estimation minimized the scaling effect of autocorrelation on area estimates. Data thinning required an approximately93% data loss to achieve statistical independence with 95% confidence and was, therefore, not a viable solution. In contrast, autocorrelation-informed home-range estimation resulted in consistently accurate estimates irrespective of mass. When relating body mass to home range size, we detected that correcting for autocorrelation resulted in a scaling exponent significantly >1, meaning the scaling of the relationship changed substantially at the upper end of the mass spectrum.
Sprint and jump performances in highly trained young soccer players of different chronological age
(2020)
Objective
The aim of this study was to examine the effects of two different sprint-training regimes on sprint and jump performances according to age in elite young male soccer players over the course of one soccer season.
Methods
Players were randomly assigned to two training groups. Group 1 performed systematic change-of-direction sprints (CODST, U19 [n = 9], U17 [n = 9], U15 [n = 10]) while group 2 conducted systematic linear sprints (LST, U19 [n = 9], U17 [n = 9], U15 [n = 9]). Training volumes were similar between groups (40 sprints per week x 30 weeks = 1200 sprints per season). Pre and post training, all players performed tests for the assessment of linear and slalom sprint speed (5-m and 10-m), countermovement jump, and maximal aerobic speed performance.
Results
For all physical fitness measures, the baseline-adjusted means data (ANCOVA) across the age groups showed no significant differences between LST and CODST at post (0.061 < p < 0.995; 0.0017 < d < 1.01). The analyses of baseline-adjusted means for all physical fitness measures for U15, U17, and U19 (LST vs. CODST) revealed no significant differences between LST and CODST for U15 (0.213 < p < 0.917; 0.001 < d < 0.087), U17 (0.132 < p < 0.976; 0.001 < d < 0.310), and U19 (0.300 < p < 0.999; 0.001 < d < 0.049) at post.
Conclusions
The results from this study showed that both, LST and CODST induced significant changes in the sprint, lower limbs power, and aerobic performances in young elite soccer players. Since no significant differences were observed between LST and CODST, the observed changes are most likely due to training and/or maturation. Therefore, more research is needed to elucidate whether CODST, LST or a combination of both is beneficial for youth soccer athletes’ performance development.
This meta-analysis aimed to assess the effects of plyometric jump training (PJT) on volleyball players’ vertical jump height (VJH), comparing changes with those observed in a matched control group. A literature search in the databases of PubMed, MEDLINE, Web of Science, and SCOPUS was conducted. Only randomized-controlled trials and studies that included a pre-to-post intervention assessment of VJH were included. They involved only healthy volleyball players with no restrictions on age or sex. Data were independently extracted from the included studies by two authors. The Physiotherapy Evidence Database scale was used to assess the risk of bias, and methodological quality, of eligible studies included in the review. From 7,081 records, 14 studies were meta-analysed. A moderate Cohen’s d effect size (ES = 0.82, p <0.001) was observed for VJH, with moderate heterogeneity (I2 = 34.4%, p = 0.09) and no publication bias (Egger’s test, p = 0.59). Analyses of moderator variables revealed no significant differences for PJT program duration (≤8 vs. >8 weeks, ES = 0.79 vs. 0.87, respectively), frequency (≤2 vs. >2 sessions/week, ES = 0.83 vs. 0.78, respectively), total number of sessions (≤16 vs. >16 sessions, ES = 0.73 vs. 0.92, respectively), sex (female vs. male, ES = 1.3 vs. 0.5, respectively), age (≥19 vs. <19 years of age, ES = 0.89 vs. 0.70, respectively), and volume (>2,000 vs. <2,000 jumps, ES = 0.76 vs. 0.79, respectively). In conclusion, PJT appears to be effective in inducing improvements in volleyball players’ VJH. Improvements in VJH may be achieved by both male and female volleyball players, in different age groups, with programs of relatively low volume and frequency. Though PJT seems to be safe for volleyball players, it is recommended that an individualized approach, according to player position, is adopted with some players (e.g. libero) less prepared to sustain PJT loads.
Research synthesis on simple yet general hypotheses and ideas is challenging in scientific disciplines studying highly context-dependent systems such as medical, social, and biological sciences. This study shows that machine learning, equation-free statistical modeling of artificial intelligence, is a promising synthesis tool for discovering novel patterns and the source of controversy in a general hypothesis. We apply a decision tree algorithm, assuming that evidence from various contexts can be adequately integrated in a hierarchically nested structure. As a case study, we analyzed 163 articles that studied a prominent hypothesis in invasion biology, the enemy release hypothesis. We explored if any of the nine attributes that classify each study can differentiate conclusions as classification problem. Results corroborated that machine learning can be useful for research synthesis, as the algorithm could detect patterns that had been already focused in previous narrative reviews. Compared with the previous synthesis study that assessed the same evidence collection based on experts' judgement, the algorithm has newly proposed that the studies focusing on Asian regions mostly supported the hypothesis, suggesting that more detailed investigations in these regions can enhance our understanding of the hypothesis. We suggest that machine learning algorithms can be a promising synthesis tool especially where studies (a) reformulate a general hypothesis from different perspectives, (b) use different methods or variables, or (c) report insufficient information for conducting meta-analyses.
Background: The regular assessment of hormonal and mood state parameters in professional soccer are proposed as good indicators during periods of intense training and/or competition to avoid overtraining.
Objective: The aim of this study was to analyze hormonal, psychological, workload and physical fitness parameters in elite soccer players in relation to changes in training and match exposure during a congested period of match play.
Methods: Sixteen elite soccer players from a team playing in the first Tunisian soccer league were evaluated three times (T1, T2, and T3) over 12 weeks. The non-congested period of match play was from T1 to T2, when the players played 6 games over 6 weeks. The congested period was from T2 to T3, when the players played 10 games over 6 weeks. From T1 to T3, players performed the Yo-Yo intermittent recovery test level 1 (YYIR1), the repeated shuttle sprint ability test (RSSA), the countermovement jump test (CMJ), and the squat jump test (SJ). Plasma Cortisol (C), Testosterone (T), and the T/C ratio were analyzed at T1, T2, and T3. Players had their mood dimensions (tension, depression, anger, vigor, fatigue, confusion, and a Total Mood Disturbance) assessed through the Profile of Mood State questionnaire (POMS). Training session rating of perceived exertion (sRPE) was also recorded on a daily basis in order to quantify internal training load and elements of monotony and strain.
Results: Significant performance declines (T1 < T2 < T3) were found for SJ performance (p = 0.04, effect size [ES] ES₁₋₂ = 0.15−0.06, ES₂₋₃ = 0.24) from T1 to T3. YYIR1 performance improved significantly from T1 to T2 and declined significantly from T2 to T3 (p = 0.001, ES₁₋₂ = 0.24, ES₂₋₃ = −2.54). Mean RSSA performance was significantly higher (p = 0.019, ES₁₋₂ = −0.47, ES₂₋₃ = 1.15) in T3 compared with T2 and T1. Best RSSA performance was significantly higher in T3 when compared with T2 and T1 (p = 0.006, ES₂₋₃ = 0.47, ES₁₋₂ = −0.56), but significantly lower in T2 when compared with to T1. T and T/C were significantly lower in T3 when compared with T2 and T1 (T: p = 0.03, ES₃₋₂ = −0.51, ES₃₋₁ = −0.51, T/C: p = 0.017, ES₃₋₂ = −1.1, ES₃₋₁ = −1.07). Significant decreases were found for the vigor scores in T3 when compared to T2 and T1 (p = 0.002, ES₁₋₂ = 0.31, ES₃₋₂ = −1.25). A significant increase was found in fatigue scores in T3 as compared to T1 and T2 (p = 0.002, ES₁₋₂ = 0.43, ES₂₋₃ = 0.81). A significant increase was found from T1 < T2 < T3 intension score (p = 0.002, ES₁₋₂ = 1.1, ES₂₋₃ = 0.2) and anger score (p = 0.03, ES₁₋₂ = 0.47, ES₂₋₃ = 0.33) over the study period. Total mood disturbance increased significantly (p = 0.02, ES₁₋₂ = 0.91, ES₂₋₃ = 1.1) from T1 to T3. Between T1-T2, significant relationships were observed between workload and changes in T (r = 0.66, p = 0.003), and T/C ratio (r = 0.62, p = 0.01). There were significant relationships between performance in RSSAbest and training load parameters (workload: r = 0.52, p = 0.03; monotony: r = 0.62, p = 0.01; strain: r = 0.62, p = 0.009). Between T2-T3, there was a significant relationship between Δ% of total mood disturbance and Δ% of YYIR1 (r = −0.54; p = 0.04), RSSAbest (r = 0.58, p = 0.01), SJ (r = −0,55, p = 0.01), T (r = 0.53; p = 0.03), and T/C (r = 0.5; p = 0.04).
Conclusion: An intensive period of congested match play significantly compromised elite soccer players’ physical and mental fitness. These changes were related to psychological but not hormonal parameters; even though significant alterations were detected for selected measures. Mood monitoring could be a simple and useful tool to determine the degree of preparedness for match play during a congested period in professional soccer.