Refine
Year of publication
- 2015 (95) (remove)
Document Type
- Article (80)
- Postprint (9)
- Review (3)
- Other (2)
- Conference Proceeding (1)
Language
- English (95)
Keywords
- ISM: clouds (3)
- ISM: supernova remnants (3)
- India-Asia collision (3)
- acceleration of particles (3)
- ancient DNA (3)
- galaxies: active (3)
- gamma rays: general (3)
- gamma rays: stars (3)
- radiation mechanisms: non-thermal (3)
- variability (3)
Institute
- Institut für Physik und Astronomie (40)
- Institut für Biochemie und Biologie (18)
- Institut für Geowissenschaften (17)
- Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Fakultät (6)
- Department Psychologie (4)
- Institut für Ernährungswissenschaft (4)
- Institut für Chemie (3)
- Department Sport- und Gesundheitswissenschaften (1)
- Interdisziplinäres Zentrum für Massenspektronomie von Biopolymeren (1)
- Zentrum für Umweltwissenschaften (1)
Re-observations with the HESS telescope array of the very high-energy (VHE) source HESS J1018-589A that is coincident with the Fermi-LAT gamma-ray binary 1FGL J1018.6-5856 have resulted in a source detection significance of more than 9 sigma and the detection of variability (chi(2)/nu of 238.3/155) in the emitted gamma-ray flux. This variability confirms the association of HESS J1018-589A with the high-energy gamma-ray binary detected Fermi-LAT and also confirms the point-like source as a new VHE binary system. The spectrum of HESS J1018-589A is best fit with a power-law function with photon index Gamma = 2.20 +/- 0.14(stat) +/- 0.2(sys). Emission is detected up to similar to 20 TeV. The mean differential flux level is (2.9 +/- 0.4) x 10(-13) TeV-1 cm(-2) s(-1) at 1 TeV, equivalent to similar to 1% of the flux from the Crab Nebula at the same energy. Variability is clearly detected the night-by-night light curve. When folded on the orbital period of 16.58 days, the rebinned light curve peaks in phase with the observed X-ray high-energy phaseograms. The fit of the HESS phaseogram to a constant flux provides evidence of periodicity at the level of N-sigma > 3 sigma. The of the VHE phaseogram and measured spectrum suggest a low-inclination, low-eccentricity system with a modest impact from VHE gamma-ray due to pair production (tau less than or similar to 1 at 300 GeV).
Aims. Previous observations with the High Energy Stereoscopic System (H.E.S.S.) have revealed an extended very-high-energy (VHE; E > 100 GeV) gamma-ray source, HESS J1834-087, coincident with the supernova remnant (SNR) W41. The origin of the gamma-ray emission was investigated in more detail with the H.E.S.S. array and the Large Area Telescope (LAT) onboard the Fermi Gamma-ray Space Telescope.
Methods. The gamma-ray data provided by 61 h of observations with H.E.S.S., and four years with the Fermi LAT were analyzed, covering over five decades in energy from 1.8 GeV up to 30 TeV. The morphology and spectrum of the TeV and GeV sources were studied and multiwavelength data were used to investigate the origin of the gamma-ray emission toward W41.
Results. The TeV source can be modeled with a sum of two components: one point-like and one significantly extended (sigma(TeV) = 0.17 degrees +/- 0.01 degrees), both centered on SNR W41 and exhibiting spectra described by a power law with index Gamma(TeV) similar or equal to 2.6. The GeV source detected with Fermi LAT is extended (sigma(GeV) = 0.15 degrees +/- 0.03 degrees) and morphologically matches the VHE emission. Its spectrum can be described by a power-law model with an index Gamma(GeV) = 2.15 +/- 0.12 and smoothly joins the spectrum of the whole TeV source. A break appears in the gamma-ray spectra around 100 GeV. No pulsations were found in the GeV range.
Conclusions. Two main scenarios are proposed to explain the observed emission: a pulsar wind nebula (PWN) or the interaction of SNR W41 with an associated molecular cloud. X-ray observations suggest the presence of a point-like source (a pulsar candidate) near the center of the remnant and nonthermal X-ray diffuse emission that could arise from the possibly associated PWN. The PWN scenario is supported by the compatible positions of the TeV and GeV sources with the putative pulsar. However, the spectral energy distribution from radio to gamma-rays is reproduced by a one-zone leptonic model only if an excess of low-energy electrons is injected following a Maxwellian distribution by a pulsar with a high spin-down power (> 10(37) erg s(-1)). This additional low-energy component is not needed if we consider that the point-like TeV source is unrelated to the extended GeV and TeV sources. The interacting SNR scenario is supported by the spatial coincidence between the gamma-ray sources, the detection of OH (1720 MHz) maser lines, and the hadronic modeling.
The gamma-ray spectrum of the low-frequency-peaked BL Lac (LBL) object AP Librae is studied, following the discovery of very-high-energy (VHE; E > 100 GeV) gamma-ray emission up to the TeV range by the H.E.S.S. experiment. Thismakes AP Librae one of the few VHE emitters of the LBL type. The measured spectrum yields a flux of (8.8 +/- 1.5(stat) +/- 1.8(sys)) x 10(-12) cm(-2) s(-1) above 130 GeV and a spectral index of Gamma = 2.65 +/- 0.19(stat) +/- 0.20(sys). This study also makes use of Fermi-LAT observations in the high energy (HE, E > 100 MeV) range, providing the longest continuous light curve (5 years) ever published on this source. The source underwent a flaring event between MJD 56 306-56 376 in the HE range, with a flux increase of a factor of 3.5 in the 14 day bin light curve and no significant variation in spectral shape with respect to the low-flux state. While the H.E.S.S. and (low state) Fermi-LAT fluxes are in good agreement where they overlap, a spectral curvature between the steep VHE spectrum and the Fermi-LAT spectrum is observed. The maximum of the gamma-ray emission in the spectral energy distribution is located below the GeV energy range.
An annihilation signal of dark matter is searched for from the central region of the Milky Way. Data acquired in dedicated on-off observations of the Galactic center region with H.E.S.S. are analyzed for this purpose. No significant signal is found in a total of similar to 9 h of on-off observations. Upper limits on the velocity averaged cross section, <sigma upsilon >, for the annihilation of dark matter particles with masses in the range of similar to 300 GeV to similar to 10 TeV are derived. In contrast to previous constraints derived from observations of the Galactic center region, the constraints that are derived here apply also under the assumption of a central core of constant dark matter density around the center of the Galaxy. Values of <sigma upsilon > that are larger than 3 x 10(-24) cm(3)/s are excluded for dark matter particles with masses between similar to 1 and similar to 4 TeV at 95% C.L. if the radius of the central dark matter density core does not exceed 500 pc. This is the strongest constraint that is derived on <sigma upsilon > for annihilating TeV mass dark matter without the assumption of a centrally cusped dark matter density distribution in the search region.
Context. Puppis A is an interesting similar to 4 kyr-old supernova remnant (SNR) that shows strong evidence of interaction between the forward shock and a molecular cloud. It has been studied in detail from radio frequencies to high-energy (HE, 0.1-100 GeV) gamma-rays. An analysis of the Fermi-LAT data has shown extended HE gamma-ray emission with a 0.2-100 GeV spectrum exhibiting no significant deviation from a power law, unlike most of the GeV-emitting SNRs known to be interacting with molecular clouds. This makes it a promising target for imaging atmospheric Cherenkov telescopes (IACTs) to probe the gamma-ray emission above 100 GeV.
Aims. Very-high-energy (VHE, E >= 0.1 TeV) gamma-ray emission from Puppis A has been, for the first time, searched for with the High Energy Stereoscopic System (HESS.).
Methods. Stereoscopic imaging of Cherenkov radiation from extensive air showers is used to reconstruct the direction and energy of the incident gamma-rays in order to produce sky images and source spectra. The profile likelihood method is applied to find constraints on the existence of a potential break or cutoff in the photon spectrum.
Results. The analysis of the HESS. data does not reveal any significant emission towards Puppis A. The derived upper limits on the differential photon flux imply that its broadband gamma-ray spectrum must exhibit a spectral break or cutoff. By combining Fermi-LAT and HESS. measurements, the 99% confidence-level upper limits on such a cutoff are found to be 450 and 280 GeV, assuming a power law with a simple exponential and a sub-exponential cutoff, respectively. It is concluded that none of the standard limitations (age, size, radiative losses) on the particle acceleration mechanism, assumed to be continuing at present, can explain the lack of VHE signal. The scenario in which particle acceleration has ceased some time ago is considered as an alternative explanation. The HE/VHE spectrum of Puppis A could then exhibit a break of non-radiative origin (as observed in several other interacting SNRs, albeit at somewhat higher energies), owing to the interaction with dense and neutral material, in particular towards the NE region.
Aims. We perform an extensive characterization of the broadband emission of Mrk 421, as well as its temporal evolution, during the non-flaring (low) state. The high brightness and nearby location (z = 0.031) of Mrk 421 make it an excellent laboratory to study blazar emission. The goal is to learn about the physical processes responsible for the typical emission of Mrk 421, which might also be extended to other blazars that are located farther away and hence are more difficult to study.
Methods. We performed a 4.5-month multi-instrument campaign on Mrk 421 between January 2009 and June 2009, which included VLBA, F-GAMMA, GASP-WEBT, Swift, RXTE, Fermi-LAT, MAGIC, and Whipple, among other instruments and collaborations. This extensive radio to very-high-energy (VHE; E > 100 GeV) gamma-ray dataset provides excellent temporal and energy coverage, which allows detailed studies of the evolution of the broadband spectral energy distribution.
Results. Mrk421 was found in its typical (non-flaring) activity state, with a VHE flux of about half that of the Crab Nebula, yet the light curves show significant variability at all wavelengths, the highest variability being in the X-rays. We determined the power spectral densities (PSD) at most wavelengths and found that all PSDs can be described by power-laws without a break, and with indices consistent with pink/red-noise behavior. We observed a harder-when-brighter behavior in the X-ray spectra and measured a positive correlation between VHE and X-ray fluxes with zero time lag. Such characteristics have been reported many times during flaring activity, but here they are reported for the first time in the non-flaring state. We also observed an overall anti-correlation between optical /UV and X-rays extending over the duration of the campaign.
Conclusions. The harder-when-brighter behavior in the X-ray spectra and the measured positive X-ray/VHE correlation during the 2009 multiwavelength campaign suggests that the physical processes dominating the emission during non-flaring states have similarities with those occurring during flaring activity. In particular, this observation supports leptonic scenarios as being responsible for the emission of Mrk 421 during non-flaring activity. Such a temporally extended X-ray /VHE correlation is not driven by any single flaring event, and hence is difficult to explain within the standard hadronic scenarios. The highest variability is observed in the X-ray band, which, within the one-zone synchrotron self-Compton scenario, indicates that the electron energy distribution is most variable at the highest energies.
G349.7+0.2 is a young Galactic supernova remnant (SNR) located at the distance of 11.5 kpc and observed across the entire electromagnetic spectrum from radio to high energy (HE; 0.1 GeV < E < 100 GeV) gamma-rays. Radio and infrared observations indicate that the remnant is interacting with a molecular cloud. In this paper, the detection of very high energy (VHE, E > 100 GeV) gamma-ray emission coincident with this SNR with the High Energy Stereoscopic System (HESS.) is reported. This makes it one of the farthest Galactic SNR ever detected in this domain. An integral flux F(E > 400 GeV) = (6.5 +/- 1.1(stat) +/- 1.3(syst)) x 10-11 ph cm(-2) s(-1) corresponding to similar to 0.7% of that of the Crab Nebula and to a luminosity of similar to 10(34) erg s(-1) above the same energy threshold, and a steep photon index Gamma(VHE) = 2.8 +/- 0.27(stat) +/- 0.20(syst) are measured. The analysis of more than 5 yr of Fermi-LAT data towards this source shows a power-law like spectrum with a best-fit photon index Gamma(HE) = 2.2 +/- 0.04.2(stat-0.31sys)(+0.13), The combined gamma-ray spectrum of 0349.7+0.2 can be described by either a broken power law (I3PL) or a power law with exponential (or sub exponential) cutoff (PLC). In the former case, the photon break energy is found at E-br,E-gamma = 551(-30)(+70) GeV, slightly higher than what is usually observed in the HE/VHE gamma-ray emitting middle-aged SNRs known to be interacting with molecular clouds. In the latter case. the exponential (respectively sub-exponential) cutoff energy is measured at E-cat,E-gamma = 1.4(-0.55)(+1.6) (respectively 0.35(-0.21)(+0.75)) TeV. A pion decay process resulting from the interaction of the accelerated protons and nuclei with the dense surrounding medium is clearly the preferred scenario to explain the gamma-ray emission. The BPL with a spectral steepening of 0.5-1 and the PLC provide equally good fits to the data. The product or the average gas density and the total energy content of accelerated protons and nuclei amounts to nu W-p similar to 5 x 10(51) erg cm(-3)
The Large Magellanic Cloud, a satellite galaxy of the Milky Way, has been observed with the High Energy Stereoscopic System (H.E.S.S.) above an energy of 100 billion electron volts for a deep exposure of 210 hours. Three sources of different types were detected: the pulsar wind nebula of the most energetic pulsar known, N 157B; the radio-loud supernova remnant N 132D; and the largest nonthermal x-ray shell, the superbubble 30 Dor C. The unique object SN 1987A is, unexpectedly, not detected, which constrains the theoretical framework of particle acceleration in very young supernova remnants. These detections reveal the most energetic tip of a g-ray source population in an external galaxy and provide via 30 Dor C the unambiguous detection of g-ray emission from a superbubble.
We report on simultaneous broadband observations of the TeV-emitting blazar Markarian 501 between 2013 April 1 and August 10, including the first detailed characterization of the synchrotron peak with Swift and NuSTAR. During the campaign, the nearby BL Lac object was observed in both a quiescent and an elevated state. The broadband campaign includes observations with NuSTAR, MAGIC, VERITAS, the Fermi Large Area Telescope, Swift X-ray Telescope and UV Optical Telescope, various ground-based optical instruments, including the GASP-WEBT program, as well as radio observations by OVRO, Metsahovi, and the F-Gamma consortium. Some of the MAGIC observations were affected by a sand layer from the Saharan desert, and had to be corrected using event-by-event corrections derived with a Light Detection and Ranging (LIDAR) facility. This is the first time that LIDAR information is used to produce a physics result with Cherenkov Telescope data taken during adverse atmospheric conditions, and hence sets a precedent for the current and future ground-based gamma-ray instruments. The NuSTAR instrument provides unprecedented sensitivity in hard X-rays, showing the source to display a spectral energy distribution (SED) between 3 and 79 keV consistent with a log-parabolic spectrum and hard X-ray variability on hour timescales. None (of the four extended NuSTAR observations) show evidence of the onset of inverse-Compton emission at hard X-ray energies. We apply a single-zone equilibrium synchrotron self-Compton (SSC) model to five simultaneous broadband SEDs. We find that the SSC model can reproduce the observed broadband states through a decrease in the magnetic field strength coinciding with an increase in the luminosity and hardness of the relativistic leptons responsible for the high-energy emission.
Unprecedented study of the broadband emission of Mrk 421 during flaring activity in March 2010
(2015)
Context. Because of its proximity, Mrk 421 is one of the best sources on which to study the nature of BL Lac objects. Its proximity allows us to characterize its broadband spectral energy distribution (SED).
Aims. The goal is to better understand the mechanisms responsible for the broadband emission and the temporal evolution of Mrk 421. These mechanisms may also apply to more distant blazars that cannot be studied with the same level of detail.
Methods. A flare occurring in March 2010 was observed for 13 consecutive days (from MJD 55 265 to MJD 55 277) with unprecedented wavelength coverage from radio to very high energy (VHE; E > 100 GeV) gamma-rays with MAGIC, VERITAS, Whipple, Fermi-LAT, MAXI, RXTE, Swift, GASP-WEBT, and several optical and radio telescopes. We modeled the day-scale SEDs with one-zone and two-zone synchrotron self-Compton (SSC) models, investigated the physical parameters, and evaluated whether the observed broadband SED variability can be associated with variations in the relativistic particle population.
Results. The activity of Mrk 421 initially was high and then slowly decreased during the 13-day period. The flux variability was remarkable at the X-ray and VHE bands, but it was minor or not significant at the other bands. The variability in optical polarization was also minor. These observations revealed an almost linear correlation between the X-ray flux at the 2-10 keV band and the VHE gamma-ray flux above 200 GeV, consistent with the gamma-rays being produced by inverse-Compton scattering in the Klein-Nishina regime in the framework of SSC models. The one-zone SSC model can describe the SED of each day for the 13 consecutive days reasonably well, which once more shows the success of this standard theoretical scenario to describe the SEDs of VHE BL Lacs such as Mrk 421. This flaring activity is also very well described by a two-zone SSC model, where one zone is responsible for the quiescent emission, while the other smaller zone, which is spatially separated from the first, contributes to the daily variable emission occurring at X-rays and VHE gamma-rays. The second blob is assumed to have a smaller volume and a narrow electron energy distribution with 3 x 10(4) < gamma < 6 x 10(5), where. is the Lorentz factor of the electrons. Such a two-zone scenario would naturally lead to the correlated variability at the X-ray and VHE bands without variability at the optical/UV band, as well as to shorter timescales for the variability at the X-ray and VHE bands with respect to the variability at the other bands.
Conclusions. Both the one-zone and the two-zone SSC models can describe the daily SEDs via the variation of only four or five model parameters, under the hypothesis that the variability is associated mostly with the underlying particle population. This shows that the particle acceleration and cooling mechanism that produces the radiating particles might be the main mechanism responsible for the broadband SED variations during the flaring episodes in blazars. The two-zone SSC model provides a better agreement with the observed SED at the narrow peaks of the low-and high-energy bumps during the highest activity, although the reported one-zone SSC model could be further improved by varying the parameters related to the emitting region itself (delta, B and R), in addition to the parameters related to the particle population.
Context. Blazars are variable sources on various timescales over a broad energy range spanning from radio to very high energy (>100 GeV, hereafter VHE). Mrk 501 is one of the brightest blazars at TeV energies and has been extensively studied since its first VHE detection in 1996. However, most of the gamma-ray studies performed on Mrk 501 during the past years relate to flaring activity, when the source detection and characterization with the available gamma-ray instrumentation was easier to perform.
Aims. Our goal is to characterize the source gamma-ray emission in detail, together with the radio-to-X-ray emission, during the non-flaring (low) activity, which is less often studied than the occasional flaring (high) activity.
Methods. We organized a multiwavelength (MW) campaign on Mrk 501 between March and May 2008. This multi-instrument effort included the most sensitive VHE gamma-ray instruments in the northern hemisphere, namely the imaging atmospheric Cherenkov telescopes MAGIC and VERITAS, as well as Swift, RXTE, the F-GAMMA, GASP-WEBT, and other collaborations and instruments. This provided extensive energy and temporal coverage of Mrk 501 throughout the entire campaign.
Results. Mrk 501 was found to be in a low state of activity during the campaign, with a VHE flux in the range of 10%-20% of the Crab nebula flux. Nevertheless, significant flux variations were detected with various instruments, with a trend of increasing variability with energy and a tentative correlation between the X-ray and VHE fluxes. The broadband spectral energy distribution during the two different emission states of the campaign can be adequately described within the homogeneous one-zone synchrotron self-Compton model, with the (slightly) higher state described by an increase in the electron number density.
Conclusions. The one-zone SSC model can adequately describe the broadband spectral energy distribution of the source during the two months covered by the MW campaign. This agrees with previous studies of the broadband emission of this source during flaring and non-flaring states. We report for the first time a tentative X-ray-to-VHE correlation during such a low VHE activity. Although marginally significant, this positive correlation between X-ray and VHE, which has been reported many times during flaring activity, suggests that the mechanisms that dominate the X-ray/VHE emission during non-flaring-activity are not substantially different from those that are responsible for the emission during flaring activity.
Very high energy (VHE, E > 100 GeV)gamma-ray flaring activity of the high-frequency peaked BL Lac object PG 1553 + 113 has been detected by the H.E.S.S. telescopes. The flux of the source increased by a factor of 3 during the nights of 2012 April 26 and 27 with respect to the archival measurements with a hint of intra-night variability. No counterpart of this event has been detected in the Fermi-Large Area Telescope data. This pattern is consistent with VHE gamma(-)ray flaring being caused by the injection of ultrarelativistic particles, emitting.-rays at the highest energies. The dataset offers a unique opportunity to constrain the redshift of this source at z = 0.49 +/- 0.04 using a novel method based on Bayesian statistics. The indication of intra-night variability is used to introduce a novel method to probe for a possible Lorentz invariance violation (LIV), and to set limits on the energy scale at which Quantum Gravity (QG) effects causing LIV may arise. For the subluminal case, the derived limits are E-QG,E- 1 > 4.10 x 10(17) GeV and E-QG,E- 2 > 2.10 x 10(10) GeV for linear and quadratic LIV effects, respectively.
Supernova remnants (SNRs) are among the most important targets for gamma-ray observatories. Being prominent non-thermal sources, they are very likely responsible for the acceleration of the bulk of Galactic cosmic rays (CRS). To firmly establish the SNR paradigm for the origin of cosmic rays, it should be confirmed that protons are indeed accelerated in, and released from, SNRs with the appropriate flux and spectrum. This can be done by detailed theoretical models which account for microphysics of acceleration and various radiation processes of hadrons and leptons. The current generation of Cherenkov telescopes has insufficient sensitivity to constrain theoretical models. A new facility, the Cherenkov Telescope Array (CTA), will have superior capabilities and may finally resolve this long standing issue of high-energy astrophysics. We want to assess the capabilities of CTA to reveal the physics of various types of SNRs in the initial 2000 years of their evolution. During this time, the efficiency to accelerate cosmic rays is highest. We perform time-dependent simulations of the hydrodynamics, the magnetic fields, the cosmic-ray acceleration, and the non-thermal emission for type Ia, Ic and IIP SNRs. We calculate the CTA response to the y-ray emission from these SNRs for various ages and distances, and we perform a realistic analysis of the simulated data. We derive distance limits for the detectability and resolvability of these SNR types at several ages. We test the ability of CTA to reconstruct their morphological and spectral parameters as a function of their distance. Finally, we estimate how well CTA data will constrain the theoretical models. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Reproducibility is a defining feature of science, but the extent to which it characterizes current research is unknown. We conducted replications of 100 experimental and correlational studies published in three psychology journals using high-powered designs and original materials when available. Replication effects were half the magnitude of original effects, representing a substantial decline. Ninety-seven percent of original studies had statistically significant results. Thirty-six percent of replications had statistically significant results; 47% of original effect sizes were in the 95% confidence interval of the replication effect size; 39% of effects were subjectively rated to have replicated the original result; and if no bias in original results is assumed, combining original and replication results left 68% with statistically significant effects. Correlational tests suggest that replication success was better predicted by the strength of original evidence than by characteristics of the original and replication teams.
Climate change and its impacts already pose considerable challenges for societies that will further increase with global warming (IPCC, 2014a, b). Uncertainties of the climatic response to greenhouse gas emissions include the potential passing of large-scale tipping points (e.g. Lenton et al., 2008; Levermann et al., 2012; Schellnhuber, 2010) and changes in extreme meteorological events (Field et al., 2012) with complex impacts on societies (Hallegatte et al., 2013). Thus climate change mitigation is considered a necessary societal response for avoiding uncontrollable impacts (Conference of the Parties, 2010). On the other hand, large-scale climate change mitigation itself implies fundamental changes in, for example, the global energy system. The associated challenges come on top of others that derive from equally important ethical imperatives like the fulfilment of increasing food demand that may draw on the same resources. For example, ensuring food security for a growing population may require an expansion of cropland, thereby reducing natural carbon sinks or the area available for bio-energy production. So far, available studies addressing this problem have relied on individual impact models, ignoring uncertainty in crop model and biome model projections. Here, we propose a probabilistic decision framework that allows for an evaluation of agricultural management and mitigation options in a multi-impact-model setting. Based on simulations generated within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP), we outline how cross-sectorally consistent multi-model impact simulations could be used to generate the information required for robust decision making.
Using an illustrative future land use pattern, we discuss the trade-off between potential gains in crop production and associated losses in natural carbon sinks in the new multiple crop-and biome-model setting. In addition, crop and water model simulations are combined to explore irrigation increases as one possible measure of agricultural intensification that could limit the expansion of cropland required in response to climate change and growing food demand. This example shows that current impact model uncertainties pose an important challenge to long-term mitigation planning and must not be ignored in long-term strategic decision making.
Climate change and its impacts already pose considerable challenges for societies that will further increase with global warming (IPCC, 2014a, b). Uncertainties of the climatic response to greenhouse gas emissions include the potential passing of large-scale tipping points (e.g. Lenton et al., 2008; Levermann et al., 2012; Schellnhuber, 2010) and changes in extreme meteorological events (Field et al., 2012) with complex impacts on societies (Hallegatte et al., 2013). Thus climate change mitigation is considered a necessary societal response for avoiding uncontrollable impacts (Conference of the Parties, 2010). On the other hand, large-scale climate change mitigation itself implies fundamental changes in, for example, the global energy system. The associated challenges come on top of others that derive from equally important ethical imperatives like the fulfilment of increasing food demand that may draw on the same resources. For example, ensuring food security for a growing population may require an expansion of cropland, thereby reducing natural carbon sinks or the area available for bio-energy production. So far, available studies addressing this problem have relied on individual impact models, ignoring uncertainty in crop model and biome model projections. Here, we propose a probabilistic decision framework that allows for an evaluation of agricultural management and mitigation options in a multi-impact-model setting. Based on simulations generated within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP), we outline how cross-sectorally consistent multi-model impact simulations could be used to generate the information required for robust decision making.
Using an illustrative future land use pattern, we discuss the trade-off between potential gains in crop production and associated losses in natural carbon sinks in the new multiple crop-and biome-model setting. In addition, crop and water model simulations are combined to explore irrigation increases as one possible measure of agricultural intensification that could limit the expansion of cropland required in response to climate change and growing food demand. This example shows that current impact model uncertainties pose an important challenge to long-term mitigation planning and must not be ignored in long-term strategic decision making.
IODP Expedition 340 successfully drilled a series of sites offshore Montserrat, Martinique and Dominica in the Lesser Antilles from March to April 2012. These are among the few drill sites gathered around volcanic islands, and the first scientific drilling of large and likely tsunamigenic volcanic island-arc landslide deposits. These cores provide evidence and tests of previous hypotheses for the composition and origin of those deposits. Sites U1394, U1399, and U1400 that penetrated landslide deposits recovered exclusively seafloor sediment, comprising mainly turbidites and hemipelagic deposits, and lacked debris avalanche deposits. This supports the concepts that i/ volcanic debris avalanches tend to stop at the slope break, and ii/ widespread and voluminous failures of preexisting low-gradient seafloor sediment can be triggered by initial emplacement of material from the volcano. Offshore Martinique (U1399 and 1400), the landslide deposits comprised blocks of parallel strata that were tilted or microfaulted, sometimes separated by intervals of homogenized sediment (intense shearing), while Site U1394 offshore Montserrat penetrated a flat-lying block of intact strata. The most likely mechanism for generating these large-scale seafloor sediment failures appears to be propagation of a decollement from proximal areas loaded and incised by a volcanic debris avalanche. These results have implications for the magnitude of tsunami generation. Under some conditions, volcanic island landslide deposits composed of mainly seafloor sediment will tend to form smaller magnitude tsunamis than equivalent volumes of subaerial block-rich mass flows rapidly entering water. Expedition 340 also successfully drilled sites to access the undisturbed record of eruption fallout layers intercalated with marine sediment which provide an outstanding high-resolution data set to analyze eruption and landslides cycles, improve understanding of magmatic evolution as well as offshore sedimentation processes.
We present the discovery of a new dwarf galaxy, Hydra II, found serendipitously within the data from the ongoing Survey of the Magellanic Stellar History conducted with the Dark Energy Camera on the Blanco 4 m Telescope. The new satellite is compact (r(h) = 68 +/- 11 pc) and faint (MV = -4.8 +/- 0.3), but well within the realm of dwarf galaxies. The stellar distribution of Hydra II in the color-magnitude diagram is well-described by a metal-poor ([Fe/H] = -2.2) and old (13 Gyr) isochrone and shows a distinct blue horizontal branch, some possible red clump stars, and faint stars that are suggestive of blue stragglers. At a heliocentric distance of 134 +/- 10 kpc, Hydra II is located in a region of the Galactic halo that models have suggested may host material from the leading arm of the Magellanic Stream. A comparison with N-body simulations hints that the new dwarf galaxy could be or could have been a satellite of the Magellanic Clouds.