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Estimating global mean sea-level rise and its uncertainties by 2100 and 2300 from an expert survey
(2020)
Sea-level rise projections and knowledge of their uncertainties are vital to make informed mitigation and adaptation decisions. To elicit projections from members of the scientific community regarding future global mean sea-level (GMSL) rise, we repeated a survey originally conducted five years ago. Under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6, 106 experts projected a likely (central 66% probability) GMSL rise of 0.30-0.65 m by 2100, and 0.54-2.15 m by 2300, relative to 1986-2005. Under RCP 8.5, the same experts projected a likely GMSL rise of 0.63-1.32 m by 2100, and 1.67-5.61 m by 2300. Expert projections for 2100 are similar to those from the original survey, although the projection for 2300 has extended tails and is higher than the original survey. Experts give a likelihood of 42% (original survey) and 45% (current survey) that under the high-emissions scenario GMSL rise will exceed the upper bound (0.98 m) of the likely range estimated by the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which is considered to have an exceedance likelihood of 17%. Responses to open-ended questions suggest that the increases in upper-end estimates and uncertainties arose from recent influential studies about the impact of marine ice cliff instability on the meltwater contribution to GMSL rise from the Antarctic Ice Sheet.
The Cluster mission has produced a large data set of electron flux measurements in the Earth's magnetosphere since its launch in late 2000. Electron fluxes are measured using Research with Adaptive Particle Imaging Detector (RAPID)/Imaging Electron Spectrometer (IES) detector as a function of energy, pitch angle, spacecraft position, and time. However, no adiabatic invariants have been calculated for Cluster so far. In this paper we present a step-by-step guide to calculations of adiabatic invariants and conversion of the electron flux to phase space density (PSD) in these coordinates. The electron flux is measured in two RAPID/IES energy channels providing pitch angle distribution at energies 39.2-50.5 and 68.1-94.5 keV in nominal mode since 2004. A fitting method allows to expand the conversion of the differential fluxes to the range from 40 to 150 keV. Best data coverage for phase space density in adiabatic invariant coordinates can be obtained for values of second adiabatic invariant, K, similar to 10(2), and values of the first adiabatic invariant mu in the range approximate to 5-20 MeV/G. Furthermore, we describe the production of a new data product "LSTAR," equivalent to the third adiabatic invariant, available through the Cluster Science Archive for years 2001-2018 with 1-min resolution. The produced data set adds to the availability of observations in Earth's radiation belts region and can be used for long-term statistical purposes.
Monolithic perovskite silicon tandem solar cells can overcome the theoretical efficiency limit of silicon solar cells. This requires an optimum bandgap, high quantum efficiency, and high stability of the perovskite. Herein, a silicon heterojunction bottom cell is combined with a perovskite top cell, with an optimum bandgap of 1.68 eV in planar p-i-n tandem configuration. A methylammonium-free FA(0.75)Cs(0.25)Pb(I0.8Br0.2)(3) perovskite with high Cs content is investigated for improved stability. A 10% molarity increase to 1.1 m of the perovskite precursor solution results in approximate to 75 nm thicker absorber layers and 0.7 mA cm(-2) higher short-circuit current density. With the optimized absorber, tandem devices reach a high fill factor of 80% and up to 25.1% certified efficiency. The unencapsulated tandem device shows an efficiency improvement of 2.3% (absolute) over 5 months, showing the robustness of the absorber against degradation. Moreover, a photoluminescence quantum yield analysis reveals that with adapted charge transport materials and surface passivation, along with improved antireflection measures, the high bandgap perovskite absorber has the potential for 30% tandem efficiency in the near future.
We report on the detection of very high energy (VHE; E > 100 GeV) gamma-ray emission from the BL Lac objects KUV 00311-1938 and PKS 1440-389 with the High Energy Stereoscopic System (H.E.S.S.). H.E.S.S. observations were accompanied or preceded by multiwavelength observations with Fermi/LAT, XRT and UVOT onboard the Swift satellite, and ATOM. Based on an extrapolation of the Fermi/LAT spectrum towards the VHE gamma-ray regime, we deduce a 95 per cent confidence level upper limit on the unknown redshift of KUV 00311-1938 of z < 0.98 and of PKS 1440-389 of z < 0.53. When combined with previous spectroscopy results, the redshift of KUV 00311-1938 is constrained to 0.51 <= z < 0.98 and of PKS 1440-389 to 0.14 (sic) z < 0.53.