Climate change and its impacts already pose considerable challenges for societies that will further increase with global warming (IPCC, 2014a, b). Uncertainties of the climatic response to greenhouse gas emissions include the potential passing of large-scale tipping points (e.g. Lenton et al., 2008; Levermann et al., 2012; Schellnhuber, 2010) and changes in extreme meteorological events (Field et al., 2012) with complex impacts on societies (Hallegatte et al., 2013). Thus climate change mitigation is considered a necessary societal response for avoiding uncontrollable impacts (Conference of the Parties, 2010). On the other hand, large-scale climate change mitigation itself implies fundamental changes in, for example, the global energy system. The associated challenges come on top of others that derive from equally important ethical imperatives like the fulfilment of increasing food demand that may draw on the same resources. For example, ensuring food security for a growing population may require an expansion of cropland, thereby reducing natural carbon sinks or the area available for bio-energy production. So far, available studies addressing this problem have relied on individual impact models, ignoring uncertainty in crop model and biome model projections. Here, we propose a probabilistic decision framework that allows for an evaluation of agricultural management and mitigation options in a multi-impact-model setting. Based on simulations generated within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP), we outline how cross-sectorally consistent multi-model impact simulations could be used to generate the information required for robust decision making.
Using an illustrative future land use pattern, we discuss the trade-off between potential gains in crop production and associated losses in natural carbon sinks in the new multiple crop-and biome-model setting. In addition, crop and water model simulations are combined to explore irrigation increases as one possible measure of agricultural intensification that could limit the expansion of cropland required in response to climate change and growing food demand. This example shows that current impact model uncertainties pose an important challenge to long-term mitigation planning and must not be ignored in long-term strategic decision making.
Glacial-interglacial variations in CO2 and methane in polar ice cores have been attributed, in part, to changes in global wetland extent, but the wetland distribution before the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 21 ka to 18 ka) remains virtually unknown. We present a study of global peatland extent and carbon (C) stocks through the last glacial cycle (130 ka to present) using a newly compiled database of 1,063 detailed stratigraphic records of peat deposits buried by mineral sediments, as well as a global peatland model. Quantitative agreement between modeling and observations shows extensive peat accumulation before the LGM in northern latitudes (> 40 degrees N), particularly during warmer periods including the last interglacial (130 ka to 116 ka, MIS 5e) and the interstadial (57 ka to 29 ka, MIS 3). During cooling periods of glacial advance and permafrost formation, the burial of northern peatlands by glaciers and mineral sediments decreased active peatland extent, thickness, and modeled C stocks by 70 to 90% from warmer times. Tropical peatland extent and C stocks show little temporal variation throughout the study period. While the increased burial of northern peats was correlated with cooling periods, the burial of tropical peat was predominately driven by changes in sea level and regional hydrology. Peat burial by mineral sediments represents a mechanism for long-term terrestrial C storage in the Earth system. These results show that northern peatlands accumulate significant C stocks during warmer times, indicating their potential for C sequestration during the warming Anthropocene.
Permafrost thaw subjects previously frozen organic carbon (OC) to microbial decomposition, generating the greenhouse gases (GHG) carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) and fueling a positive climate feedback. Over one quarter of permafrost OC is stored in deep, ice-rich Pleistocene-aged yedoma permafrost deposits. We used a combination of anaerobic incubations, microbial sequencing, and ultrahigh-resolution mass spectrometry to show yedoma OC biolability increases with depth along a 12-m yedoma profile. In incubations at 3 degrees C and 13 degrees C, GHG production per unit OC at 12-versus 1.3-m depth was 4.6 and 20.5 times greater, respectively. Bacterial diversity decreased with depth and we detected methanogens at all our sampled depths, suggesting that in situ microbial communities are equipped to metabolize thawed OC into CH4. We concurrently observed an increase in the relative abundance of reduced, saturated OC compounds, which corresponded to high proportions of C mineralization and positively correlated with anaerobic GHG production potentials and higher proportions of OC being mineralized as CH4. Taking into account the higher global warming potential (GWP) of CH4 compared to CO2, thawed yedoma sediments in our study had 2 times higher GWP at 12-versus 9.0-m depth at 3 degrees C and 15 times higher GWP at 13 degrees C. Considering that yedoma is vulnerable to processes that thaw deep OC, our findings imply that it is important to account for this increasing GHG production and GWP with depth to better understand the disproportionate impact of yedoma on the magnitude of the permafrost carbon feedback.