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Robustness analysis: Deconstructing computational models for ecological theory and applications
(2016)
The design of computational models is path-dependent: the choices made in each step during model development constrain the choices that are available in the subsequent steps. The actual path of model development can be extremely different, even for the same system, because the path depends on the question addressed, the availability of data, and the consideration of specific expert knowledge, in addition to the experience, background, and modelling preferences of the modellers. Thus, insights from different models are practically impossible to integrate, which hinders the development of general theory. We therefore suggest augmenting the current culture of communicating models as working just fine with a culture of presenting analyses in which we try to break models, i.e., model mechanisms explaining certain observations break down. We refer to the systematic attempts to break a model as “robustness analysis” (RA). RA is the systematic deconstruction of a model by forcefully changing the model's parameters, structure, and representation of processes. We discuss the nature and elements of RA and provide brief examples. RA cannot be completely formalized into specific techniques and instead corresponds to detective work that is driven by general questions and specific hypotheses, with strong attention focused on unusual behaviours. Both individual modellers and ecological modelling in general will benefit from RA because RA helps with understanding models and identifying “robust theories”, which are general principles that are independent of the idiosyncrasies of specific models. Integrating the results of RAs from different models to address certain systems or questions will then provide a comprehensive overview of when certain mechanisms control system behaviour and when and why this control ceases. This approach can provide insights into the mechanisms that lead to regime shifts in actual ecological systems.
Climate change and land use management practices are major drivers of biodiversity in terrestrial ecosystems. To understand and predict resulting changes in community structures, individual-based and spatially explicit population models are a useful tool but require detailed data sets for each species. More generic approaches are thus needed. Here we present a trait-based functional type approach to model savanna birds. The aim of our model is to explore the response of different bird functional types to modifications in habitat structure. The functional types are characterized by different traits, in particular body mass, which is related to life-history traits (reproduction and mortality) and spatial scales (home range area and dispersal ability), as well as the use of vegetation structures for foraging and nesting, which is related to habitat quality and suitability. We tested the performance of the functional types in artificial landscapes varying in shrub:grass ratio and clumping intensity of shrub patches. We found that an increase in shrub encroachment and a decrease in habitat quality caused by land use mismanagement and climate change endangered all simulated bird functional types. The strength of this effect was related to the preferred habitat. Furthermore, larger-bodied insectivores and omnivores were more prone to extinction due to shrub encroachment compared to small-bodied species. Insectivorous and omnivorous birds were more sensitive to clumping intensity of shrubs whereas herbivorous and carnivorous birds were most affected by a decreasing amount of grass cover. From an applied point of view, our findings emphasize that policies such as woody plant removal and a reduction in livestock stocking rates to prevent shrub encroachment should prioritize the enlargement of existing grassland patches. Overall, our results show that the combination of an individual-based modelling approach with carefully defined functional types can provide a powerful tool for exploring biodiversity responses to environmental changes. Furthermore, the increasing accumulation of worldwide data sets on species’ core and soft traits (surrogates to determine core traits indirectly) on one side and the refinement of conceptual frameworks for animal functional types on the other side will further improve functional type approaches which consider the sensitivities of multiple species to climate change, habitat loss, and fragmentation.
Current rates of environmental change are exceeding the capacity of many populations to adapt to new conditions and thus avoid demographic collapse and ultimate extinction. In particular, cold-water freshwater fish species are predicted to experience strong selective pressure from climate change and a wide range of interacting anthropogenic stressors in the near future. To implement effective management and conservation measures, it is crucial to quantify the maximum rate of change that cold-water freshwater fish populations can withstand. Here, we present a spatially explicit eco-genetic individual-based model, inSTREAM-Gen, to predict the eco-evolutionary dynamics of stream-dwelling trout under anthropogenic environmental change. The model builds on a well-tested demographic model, which includes submodels of river dynamics, bioenergetics, and adaptive habitat selection, with a new genetic module that allows exploration of genetic and life-history adaptations to new environments. The genetic module models the transmission of two key traits, size at emergence and maturity size threshold. We parameterized the model for a brown trout (Salmo trutta L.) population at the warmest edge of its range to validate it and analyze its sensitivity to parameters under contrasting thermal profiles. To illustrate potential applications of the model, we analyzed the population's demographic and evolutionary dynamics under scenarios of (1) climate change-induced warming, and (2) warming plus flow reduction resulting from climate and land use change, compared to (3) a baseline of no environmental change. The model predicted severe declines in density and biomass under climate warming. These declines were lower than expected at range margins because of evolution towards smaller size at both emergence and maturation compared to the natural evolution under the baseline conditions. Despite stronger evolutionary responses, declining rates were substantially larger under the combined warming and flow reduction scenario, leading to a high probability of population extinction over contemporary time frames. Therefore, adaptive responses could not prevent extinction under high rates of environmental change. Our model demonstrates critical elements of next generation ecological modelling aiming at predictions in a changing world as it accounts for spatial and temporal resource heterogeneity, while merging individual behaviour and bioenergetics with microevolutionary adaptations.
Results: Here, an RNA-guided Cas9 system was optimized to enable efficient multiplex editing in Arabidopsis thaliana. We demonstrate the flexibility of our system for knockout of multiple genes, and to generate heritable large-fragment deletions in the genome. As a proof of concept, the function of part of the second intron of the flower development gene AGAMOUS in Arabidopsis was studied by generating a Cas9-free mutant plant line in which part of this intron was removed from the genome. Further analysis revealed that deletion of this intron fragment results 40 % decrease of AGAMOUS gene expression without changing the splicing of the gene which indicates that this regulatory region functions as an activator of AGAMOUS gene expression. Conclusions: Our modified RNA-guided Cas9 system offers a versatile tool for the functional dissection of coding and non-coding DNA sequences in plants.
Formate dehydrogenases (FDHs) are capable of performing the reversible oxidation of formate and are enzymes of great interest for fuel cell applications and for the production of reduced carbon compounds as energy sources from CO2. Metal containing FDHs in general contain a highly conserved active site, comprising a molybdenum (or tungsten) center coordinated by two molybdopterin guanine dinucleotide molecules, a sulfido and a (seleno-)cysteine ligand, in addition to a histidine and arginine residue in the second coordination sphere. So far, the role of these amino acids in catalysis has not been studied in detail, because of the lack of suitable expression systems and the lability or oxygen sensitivity of the enzymes. Here, the roles of these active site residues is revealed using the Mo-containing FDH from Rhodobacter capsulatus. Our results show that the cysteine ligand at the Mo ion is displaced by the formate substrate during the reaction, the arginine has a direct role in substrate binding and stabilization, and the histidine elevates the pK(a) of the active site cysteine. We further found that in addition to reversible formate oxidation, the enzyme is further capable of reducing nitrate to nitrite. We propose a mechanistic scheme that combines both functionalities and provides important insights into the distinct mechanisms of C-H bond cleavage and oxygen atom transfer catalyzed by formate dehydrogenase.
Recently pharmaceuticals have become significant environmental pollutants in aquatic ecosystems, that could affect primary producers such as microalgae. Here we analyzed the effect of pharmaceuticals on the photosynthesis of microalgae commonly found in freshwater-two species of Chlorophyceae and a member of the Eustigmatophyceae, via PAM fluorometry. As pharmaceuticals, three medicines often consumed in households were chosen: (i) fluoxetine, an antidepressant, (ii) propranolol, a beta-blocker and (iii) ibuprofen, an anti-inflammatory and analgesic medicine. The EC50 for the quantum yield of photosystem II in phytoplankton acclimated to inorganic phosphorus (P-i)-replete and P-i-limited conditions was estimated. Acute toxicity experiments over a 5 h exposure revealed that Nannochloropsis limnetica was the least sensitive to pharmaceuticals in its photosynthetic yield out of all species tested. Although the estimation of sub-lethal effects can be vital in contrast to that of LC(50)s, the EC50 values in all species and for all medicines were orders of magnitude higher than concentrations found in polluted surface water. Chlamydomonas reinhardtii was the most sensitive to fluoxetine (EC50 of 1.6 mg L-1), and propranolol (EC50 of 3 mg L-1). Acutodesmus obliquus was most sensitive to ibuprofen (EC50 of 288 mg L-1). Additionally, the sensitivity to the pharmaceuticals changed under a P-i-limitation; the green algae became less sensitive to fluoxetine and propranolol. In contrast, P-i-limited algal species were more sensitive to ibuprofen. Our results suggest that the sensitivity of algae to pharmaceuticals is (i) highly compound- and species-specific and (ii) dependent on the cellular P status.
Recruitment of European eels (Anguilla anguilla) has declined to the extent that they have been added to the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species. Therefore, it is critical to ensure that eels complete their outward river migration in order to contribute to the available spawning stock. We conducted a 4-year (2007-2011) telemetry study to understand the migratory behaviour and potential impact of environmental factors on the eel during this critical life stage. Out of 399 female eels tagged with acoustic transmitters, only 28% demonstrated clear downstream migratory behaviour. Fifty-five percent were detected exhibiting no downstream migration behaviour and 17% were not detected at any monitoring station. Movement patterns of downstream-migrating (silver) eels were characterized by nocturnal activity and seasonal migration, with distinct peaks in autumn and spring. Migration was often discontinuous and exhibited phases of active locomotion and expanded stopovers. The most important determinants of movement activity were water temperature, cumulative precipitation and moonlight, although the significance varied by season and location in the river basin. Our results evidence a discontinuous, stepwise migration over an extended period. Furthermore, our findings indicate that migration success depends on holding duration prior to tagging and environmental predictors with varying importance depending on the season, as well as the locations of capture, tagging and release. Copyright (c) 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Transposable elements (TEs) make up a large proportion of eukaryotic genomes. As their mobilization creates genetic variation that threatens genome integrity, TEs are epigenetically silenced through several pathways, and this may spread to neighboring sequences. JUMONJI (JMJ) proteins can function as antisilencing factors and prevent silencing of genes next to TEs. Whether TE silencing is counterbalanced by the activity of antisilencing factors is still unclear. Here, we characterize JMJ24 as a regulator of TE silencing. We show that loss of JMJ24 results in increased silencing of the DNA transposon AtMu1c, while overexpression of JMJ24 reduces silencing. JMJ24 has a JumonjiC (JmjC) domain and two RING domains. JMJ24 autoubiquitinates in vitro, demonstrating E3 ligase activity of the RING domain(s). JMJ24-JmjC binds the N-terminal tail of histone H3, and full-length JMJ24 binds histone H3 in vivo. JMJ24 activity is anticorrelated with histone H3 Lys 9 dimethylation (H3K9me2) levels at AtMu1c. Double mutant analyses with epigenetic silencing mutants suggest that JMJ24 antagonizes histone H3K9me2 and requires H3K9 methyltransferases for its activity on AtMu1c. Genome-wide transcriptome analysis indicates that JMJ24 affects silencing at additional TEs. Our results suggest that the JmjC domain of JMJ24 has lost demethylase activity but has been retained as a binding domain for histone H3. This is in line with phylogenetic analyses indicating that JMJ24 (with the mutated JmjC domain) is widely conserved in angiosperms. Taken together, this study assigns a role in TE silencing to a conserved JmjC-domain protein with E3 ligase activity, but no demethylase activity.
Both dispersal and local demographic processes determine a population's distribution among habitats of varying quality, yet most theory, experiments, and field studies have focused on the former. We use a generic model to show how both processes contribute to a population's distribution, and how the relative importance of each mechanism depends on scale. In contrast to studies only considering habitat-dependent dispersal, we show that predictions of ideal free distribution (IFD) theory are relevant even at landscape scales, where the assumptions of IFD theory are violated. This is because scales that inhibit one process, promote the other's ability to drive populations to the IFD. Furthermore, because multiple processes can generate IFDs, the pattern alone does not specify a causal mechanism. This is important because populations with IFDs generated by dispersal or demography respond much differently to shifts in resource distributions.
Tula virus (TULV) is a vole-associated hantavirus with low or no pathogenicity to humans. In the present study, 686 common voles (Microtus arvalis), 249 field voles (Microtus agrestis) and 30 water voles (Arvicola spec.) were collected at 79 sites in Germany, Luxembourg and France and screened by RT-PCR and TULV-IgG ELISA. TULV-specific RNA and/or antibodies were detected at 43 of the sites, demonstrating a geographically widespread distribution of the virus in the studied area. The TULV prevalence in common voles (16.7 %) was higher than that in field voles (9.2 %) and water voles (10.0 %). Time series data at ten trapping sites showed evidence of a lasting presence of TULV RNA within common vole populations for up to 34 months, although usually at low prevalence. Phylogenetic analysis demonstrated a strong genetic structuring of TULV sequences according to geography and independent of the rodent species, confirming the common vole as the preferential host, with spillover infections to co-occurring field and water voles. TULV phylogenetic clades showed a general association with evolutionary lineages in the common vole as assessed by mitochondrial DNA sequences on a large geographical scale, but with local-scale discrepancies in the contact areas.