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Climatic observables are often correlated across long spatial distances, and extreme events, such as heatwaves or floods, are typically assumed to be related to such teleconnections(1,2). Revealing atmospheric teleconnection patterns and understanding their underlying mechanisms is of great importance for weather forecasting in general and extreme-event prediction in particular(3,4), especially considering that the characteristics of extreme events have been suggested to change under ongoing anthropogenic climate change(5-8). Here we reveal the global coupling pattern of extreme-rainfall events by applying complex-network methodology to high-resolution satellite data and introducing a technique that corrects for multiple-comparison bias in functional networks. We find that the distance distribution of significant connections (P < 0.005) around the globe decays according to a power law up to distances of about 2,500 kilometres. For longer distances, the probability of significant connections is much higher than expected from the scaling of the power law. We attribute the shorter, power-law-distributed connections to regional weather systems. The longer, super-power-law-distributed connections form a global rainfall teleconnection pattern that is probably controlled by upper-level Rossby waves. We show that extreme-rainfall events in the monsoon systems of south-central Asia, east Asia and Africa are significantly synchronized. Moreover, we uncover concise links between south-central Asia and the European and North American extratropics, as well as the Southern Hemisphere extratropics. Analysis of the atmospheric conditions that lead to these teleconnections confirms Rossby waves as the physical mechanism underlying these global teleconnection patterns and emphasizes their crucial role in dynamical tropical-extratropical couplings. Our results provide insights into the function of Rossby waves in creating stable, global-scale dependencies of extreme-rainfall events, and into the potential predictability of associated natural hazards.
Water stable isotope signatures can provide valuable insights into the catchment internal runoff processes. However, the ability of the water isotope data to constrain the internal apportionments of runoff components in hydrological models for glacierized basins is not well understood. This study developed an approach to simultaneously model the water stable isotopic compositions and runoff processes in a glacierized basin in Central Asia. The fractionation and mixing processes of water stable isotopes in and from the various water sources were integrated into a glacio-hydrological model. The model parameters were calibrated on discharge, snow cover and glacier mass balance data, and additionally isotopic composition of streamflow. We investigated the value of water isotopic compositions for the calibration of model parameters, in comparison to calibration methods without using such measurements. Results indicate that: (1) The proposed isotope-hydrological integrated modeling approach was able to reproduce the isotopic composition of streamflow, and improved the model performance in the evaluation period; (2) Involving water isotopic composition for model calibration reduced the model parameter uncertainty, and helped to reduce the uncertainty in the quantification of runoff components; (3) The isotope-hydrological integrated modeling approach quantified the contributions of runoff components comparably to a three-component tracer-based end-member mixing analysis method for summer peak flows, and required less water tracer data. Our findings demonstrate the value of water isotopic compositions to improve the quantification of runoff components using hydrological models in glacierized basins.
The Schwarzenberg mining district in the western Erzgebirge hosts numerous skarn-hosted tin-polymetallic deposits, such as Breitenbrunn. The St. Christoph mine is located in the Breitenbrunn deposit and is the locus typicus of christophite, an iron-rich sphalerite variety, which can be associated with indium enrichment. This study presents a revision of the paragenetic scheme, a contribution to the indium behavior and potential, and discussion on the origin of the sulfur. This was achieved through reflected light microscopy, SEM-based MLA, EPMA, and bulk mineral sulfur isotope analysis on 37 sulfide-rich skarn samples from a mineral collection. The paragenetic scheme includes: a pre-mineralization stage of anhydrous calc-silicates and hydrous minerals; an oxide stage, dominated by magnetite; a sulfide stage of predominantly sphalerite, minor pyrite, chalcopyrite, arsenopyrite, and galena. Some sphalerite samples present elevated indium contents of up to 0.44 wt%. Elevated iron contents (4-10 wt%) in sphalerite can be tentatively linked to increased indium incorporation, but further analyses are required. Analyzed sulfides exhibit homogeneous delta S-34 values (-1 to +2 parts per thousand VCDT), assumed to be post-magmatic. They correlate with other Fe-Sn-Zn-Cu-In skarn deposits in the western Erzgebirge, and Permian vein-hosted associations throughout the Erzgebirge region.
We show that near-real-time seismic monitoring of fluid injection allowed control of induced earthquakes during the stimulation of a 6.1-km-deep geothermal well near Helsinki, Finland. A total of 18,160 m(3) of fresh water was pumped into crystalline rocks over 49 days in June to July 2018. Seismic monitoring was performed with a 24-station borehole seismometer network. Using near-real-time information on induced-earthquake rates, locations, magnitudes, and evolution of seismic and hydraulic energy, pumping was either stopped or varied-in the latter case, between well-head pressures of 60 and 90 MPa and flow rates of 400 and 800 liters/min. This procedure avoided the nucleation of a project-stopping magnitude M-W 2.0 induced earthquake, a limit set by local authorities. Our results suggest a possible physics-based approach to controlling stimulation-induced seismicity in geothermal projects.
Aquifer thermal energy storage (ATES) as a complement to fluctuating renewable energy systems is a reliable technology to guarantee continuous energy supply for heating and air conditioning. We investigated a high-temperature (HT) mono-well system (c. 100 degrees C), where the well screens are separated vertically within the aquifer, as an alternative to conventional doublet ATES systems for an underground storage in northern Oman. We analysed the impact of thermal inference between injection and extraction well screens on the heat recovery factor (HRF) in order to define the optimal screento-screen distance for best possible systems efficiency. Two controlling interference parameters were considered: the vertical screen-to-screen distance and aquifer heterogeneities. The sensitivity study shows that with decreasing screen-to-screen distances, thermal interference increases storage performance. A turning point is reached if the screen distance is too close, causing either water breakthrough or negative thermal interference between the screens. Our simulations show that a combined heat plume with spherical geometry results in the highest heat recovery factors due to the lowest surface area to volume ratios. Thick aquifers for mono-well HT-ATES are thus not mandatory Our study shows that a HT-ATES mono-well system is a feasible storage design with high heat recovery factors for continuous cooling or heating purposes.
Lateral movements of alluvial river channels control the extent and reworking rates of alluvial fans, floodplains, deltas, and alluvial sections of bedrock rivers. These lateral movements can occur by gradual channel migration or by sudden changes in channel position (avulsions). Whereas models exist for rates of river avulsion, we lack a detailed understanding of the rates of lateral channel migration on the scale of a channel belt. In a two-step process, we develop here an expression for the lateral migration rate of braided channel systems in coarse, non-cohesive sediment. On the basis of photographic and topographic data from laboratory experiments of braided channels performed under constant external boundary conditions, we first explore the impact of autogenic variations of the channel-system geometry (i.e. channel-bank heights, water depths, channel-system width, and channel slope) on channel-migration rates. In agreement with theoretical expectations, we find that, under such constant boundary conditions, the laterally reworked volume of sediment is constant and lateral channel-migration rates scale inversely with the channel-bank height. Furthermore, when channel-bank heights are accounted for, lateral migration rates are independent of the remaining channel geometry parameters. These constraints allow us, in a second step, to derive two alternative expressions for lateral channel-migration rates under different boundary conditions using dimensional analysis. Fits of a compilation of laboratory experiments to these expressions suggest that, for a given channel bank-height, migration rates are strongly sensitive to water discharges and more weakly sensitive to sediment discharges. In addition, external perturbations, such as changes in sediment and water discharges or base level fall, can indirectly affect lateral channel-migration rates by modulating channel-bank heights.
In response to collision and convergence between India and Asia during the Cenozoic, convergence took place between the Pamir and South Tian Shan. Here we present new detrital zircon U-Pb ages coupled with conglomerate clast counting and sedimentary data from the late Cenozoic Wuheshalu section in the convergence zone, to shed light on the convergence process of the Pamir and South Tian Shan. Large Triassic zircon U-Pb age populations in all seven samples suggest that Triassic igneous rocks from the North Pamir were the major source area for the late Cenozoic Wuheshalu section. In the Miocene, large populations of the North Pamir component supports rapid exhumation in the North Pamir and suggest that topography already existed there since the early Miocene. Exhumation of the South Tian Shan was relatively less important in the Miocene and its detritus could only reach a limited area in the foreland area. Gradually increasing sediment loading and convergence of the Pamir and South Tian Shan caused rapid subsidence in the convergence area. Since ca. 6-5.3 Ma, the combination of a major North Pamir component and a minor South Tian Shan component at the Wuheshalu section is consistent with active deformation of the South Tian Shan and the North Pamir. During deposition of the upper Atushi Formation, a larger proportion of North Pamir-derived sediments was deposited in the Wuheshalu section, maybe because faulting and northward propagation of the North Pamir caused northward displacement of the depocenter to north of the Wuheshalu section.
One commonly proposed method to limit flood risk is land-use or zoning policies which regulates construction in high-risk areas, in order to reduce economic exposure and its vulnerability to flood events. Although such zoning regulations can be effective in limiting trends in flood risk, they also have adverse impacts on society, for instance by limiting local development of areas near the water. In order to judge whether proposed land-use or zoning policies are a net benefit to society, they should be accepted or rejected based on a societal cost-benefit analysis (CBA). However, conducting a CBA of zoning regulation is complex and comprehensive guidelines of how to do such an analysis are lacking. We offer guidelines for good practice. In order to assess the costs and benefits of zoning as a climate change adaption strategy, they should be assessed at a societal level in order to account for public good features of flood risk reduction strategies, and because costs in one area can be benefits in another region. We propose a multistep process: first, determine the spatial extent of the zoning policy and how interconnected the zoned area is to other locations; second, conduct a CBA using monetary costs and benefits estimated from an integrated hydro-economic model to investigate if total benefits exceed total costs; third, conduct a sensitivity analysis regarding the main assumptions; fourth, conduct a multicriteria analysis (MCA) of the normative outcomes of a zoning policy. A desirable policy is preferred in both the CBA and MCA. This article is categorized under: Engineering Water > Planning Water Human Water > Value of Water Science of Water > Water Extremes Human Water > Methods
Garnet of eclogite (formerly termed garnet clinopyroxenite) hosted in lenses of orogenic garnet peridotite from the Granulitgebirge, NW Bohemian Massif, contains unique inclusions of granitic melt, now either glassy or crystallized. Analysed glasses and re‐homogenized inclusions are hydrous, peraluminous, and enriched in highly incompatible elements characteristic of the continental crust such as Cs, Li, B, Pb, Rb, Th, and U. The original melt thus represents a pristine, chemically evolved metasomatic agent, which infiltrated the mantle via deep continental subduction during the Variscan orogeny. The bulk chemical composition of the studied eclogites is similar to that of Fe‐rich basalt and the enrichment in LILE and U suggest a subduction‐related component. All these geochemical features confirm metasomatism. In comparison with many other garnet+clinopyroxene‐bearing lenses in peridotites of the Bohemian Massif, the studied samples from Rubinberg and Klatschmühle are more akin to eclogite than pyroxenites, as reflected in high jadeite content in clinopyroxene, relatively low Mg, Cr, and Ni but relatively high Ti. However, trace elements of both bulk rock and individual mineral phases show also important differences making these samples rather unique. Metasomatism involving a melt requiring a trace element pattern very similar to the composition reported here has been suggested for the source region of rocks of the so‐called durbachite suite, that is, ultrapotassic melanosyenites, which are found throughout the high‐grade Variscan basement. Moreover, the Th, U, Pb, Nb, Ta, and Ti patterns of these newly studied melt inclusions (MI) strongly resemble those observed for peridotite and its enclosed pyroxenite from the T‐7 borehole (Staré, České Středhoři Mountains) in N Bohemia. This suggests that a similar kind of crustal‐derived melt also occurred here. This study of granitic MI in eclogites from peridotites has provided the first direct characterization of a preserved metasomatic melt, possibly responsible for the metasomatism of several parts of the mantle in the Variscides.
Oceanic Anoxic Event-2 (OAE-2; Cenomanian-Turonian) is characterized by extensive deposition of organic carbon-rich deposits (black shales) in ocean basins worldwide as result of a major perturbation of the global carbon cycle. While the sedimentological, geochemical, and paleontological aspects of deep water expressions of OAE-2 have been intensively studied in the last few decades, much less attention has been given to the coeval shallow water deposits. In this study, we present the results of a detailed facies and petrographic (optical microscope and scanning electron microscopy) and geochemical studies (delta C-13(carb), delta C-13 (org), delta N-15(bulk), TOC, and Rock-Eval pyrolysis) on two key shallow marine sections from the Apennine Carbonate Platform (ACP; Italy). Here a continuous record of shallow water carbonates through the OAE-2 interval is preserved, offering the unique opportunity to document the archive of paleoenvironmental changes in a neritic setting, at a tropical latitude and far from the influence of a large continental block. Two conspicuous intervals are characterized by abundant and closely spaced dark microbial laminites found at correlative stratigraphic horizons in the two stratigraphic sections. These laminites contain elevated concentrations of TOC (up to 1%) relative to microbial capping cycles laminites stratigraphically above and below. The organic matter preserved in these fine-grained laminites is dominated by cyanobacteria remains, which accounted for most of the organic matter produced on the ACP in these intervals. Our study suggests that Tethyan carbonate platforms experienced significant biological changes during OAE-2, alternating, in few kiloyears, between eutrophic phases dominated by microbial communities and mesotrophic/oligotrophic conditions favoring normal carbonate production/sedimentation. The synchronous occurrence of microbialite facies at different locations across the ACP and on other platforms worldwide (e.g., Mexico and Croatia) suggests a causal link between Large Igneous Province volcanism and the environmental conditions necessary to trigger cyanobacterial proliferation on shallow carbonate platforms.
The occurrence of deep low-frequency (DLF) microearthquakes beneath volcanoes is commonly attributed to mass transport in the volcanic plumbing system and used to infer feeding channels from and into magma reservoirs. The key question is how magmas migrate from depth to the shallow crust and whether magma reservoirs are currently being recharged. For the first time since the improvement of the local seismic networks in the East Eifel region (Rhineland-Palatinate, Germany), we detect and locate recurrent DLF earthquakes in the lower crust and upper mantle beneath the Laacher See Volcano (LSV), using a joint data set of permanent sensors and a temporary deployment. So far, eight DLF earthquake sequences were observed in four distinct clusters between 10 and 40 km depth. These clusters of weak events (M-L< 2) align along an approximately 80. southeast dipping line south of the LSV. Moment tensor solutions of these events have large shear components, and the irregular dispersion and long coda of body waves indicate interaction processes between shear cracks and fluids. We find a rotation of P-axes orientation for shallow tectonic earthquakes compared to DLF events, indicating that the stress field in the depth interval of DLF events might favour a vertical migration of magma or magmatic fluids. The caldera of the LSV was formed by the last major eruption of the East Eifel Volcanic Field only 12.9 kyr ago, fed by a shallow magma chamber at 5-8 km depth and erupting a total magma volume of 6.7 km(3). The observed DLF earthquake activity and continuous volcanic gas emissions around the LSV indicate an active magmatic system, possibly connected with an upper mantle melt zone.
We investigated deep-seated gravitational slope deformation (DSGSD) and slow mass movements in the southern Tien Shan Mountains front using synthetic aperture radar (SAR) time-series data obtained by the ALOS/PALSAR satellite. DSGSD evolves with a variety of geomorphological changes (e.g. valley erosion, incision of slope drainage networks) over time that affect earth surfaces and, therefore, often remain unexplored. We analysed 118 interferograms generated from 20 SAR images that covered about 900 km(2). To understand the spatial pattern of the slope movements and to identify triggering parameters, we correlated surface dynamics with the tectono-geomorphic processes and lithologic conditions of the active front of the Alai Range. We observed spatially continuous, constant hillslope movements with a downslope speed of approximately 71 mm year(-1) velocity. Our findings suggest that the lithological and structural framework defined by protracted deformation was the main controlling factor for sustained relief and, consequently, downslope mass movements. The analysed structures revealed integration of a geological/structural setting with the superposition of Cretaceous-Paleogene alternating carbonatic and clastic sedimentary structures as the substratum for younger, less consolidated sediments. This type of structural setting causes the development of large-scale, gravity-driven DSGSD and slow mass movement. Surface deformations with clear scarps and multiple crest lines triggered planes for large-scale deep mass creeps, and these were related directly to active faults and folds in the geologic structures. Our study offers a new combination of InSAR techniques and structural field observations, along with morphometric and seismologic correlations, to identify and quantify slope instability phenomena along a tectonically active mountain front. These results contribute to an improved natural risk assessment in these structures.
Following the Middle Permian (Capitanian) mass extinction there was a global ‘reef eclipse’, and this event had an important role in the Paleozoic-Mesozoic transition of reef ecosystems. Furthermore, the recovery pattern of reef ecosystems in the Wuchiapingian of South China, before the radiation of Changhsingian reefs, is poorly understood. Here, we present a detailed sedimentological account of the Tieqiao section, South China, which records the only known Wuchiapingian reef setting from South China. Six reef growing phases were identified within six transgressive-regressive cycles. The cycles represent changes of deposition in a shallow basin to a subtidal outer platform setting, and the reefal build-ups are recorded in the shallowest part of the cycles above wave base in the euphotic zone. Our results show that the initial reef recovery started from the shallowing up part of the 1st cycle, within the Clarkina leveni conodont zone, which is two conodont zones earlier than previously recognized. In addition, even though metazoans, such as sponges, do become important in the development of the reef bodies, they are not a major component until later in the Wuchiapingian in the 5th and 6th transgressive-regressive cycles. This suggests a delayed recovery of metazoan reef ecosystems following the Middle Permian extinction. Furthermore, even though sponges do become abundant within the reefs, it is the presence and growth of the encrusters Archaeolithoporella and Tubiphytes and abundance of microbial micrites that play an important role in stabilizing the reef structures that form topographic highs.
The Alpine orogen formed as a result of the collision between the Adriatic and European plates. Significant crustal heterogeneity exists within the region due to the long history of interplay between these plates, other continental and oceanic blocks in the region, and inherited crustal features from earlier orogenies. Deformation relating to the collision continues to the present day. Here, a seismically constrained, 3-D structural and density model of the lithosphere of the Alps and their respective forelands, derived from integrating numerous geoscientific datasets, was adjusted to match the observed gravity field. It is shown that the distribution of seismicity and deformation within the region correlates well to thickness and density changes within the crust, and that the present-day Adriatic crust is both thinner and denser (22.5 km, 2800 kg m(-3) ) than the European crust (27.5 km, 2750 kg m(-3)). Alpine crust derived from each respective plate is found to show the same trend, with zones of Adriatic provenance (Austro-Alpine unit and Southern Alps) found to be denser and those of European provenance (Helvetic zone and Tauern Window) to be less dense. This suggests that the respective plates and related terranes had similar crustal properties to the present-day ones prior to orogenesis. The model generated here is available for open-access use to further discussions about the crust in the region.
Determining the optimal grid resolution for topographic analysis on an airborne lidar dataset
(2019)
Digital elevation models (DEMs) are a gridded representation of the surface of the Earth and typically contain uncertainties due to data collection and processing. Slope and aspect estimates on a DEM contain errors and uncertainties inherited from the representation of a continuous surface as a grid (referred to as truncation error; TE) and from any DEM uncertainty. We analyze in detail the impacts of TE and propagated elevation uncertainty (PEU) on slope and aspect.
Using synthetic data as a control, we define functions to quantify both TE and PEU for arbitrary grids. We then develop a quality metric which captures the combined impact of both TE and PEU on the calculation of topographic metrics. Our quality metric allows us to examine the spatial patterns of error and uncertainty in topographic metrics and to compare calculations on DEMs of different sizes and accuracies.
Using lidar data with point density of ∼10 pts m−2 covering Santa Cruz Island in southern California, we are able to generate DEMs and uncertainty estimates at several grid resolutions. Slope (aspect) errors on the 1 m dataset are on average 0.3∘ (0.9∘) from TE and 5.5∘ (14.5∘) from PEU. We calculate an optimal DEM resolution for our SCI lidar dataset of 4 m that minimizes the error bounds on topographic metric calculations due to the combined influence of TE and PEU for both slope and aspect calculations over the entire SCI. Average slope (aspect) errors from the 4 m DEM are 0.25∘ (0.75∘) from TE and 5∘ (12.5∘) from PEU. While the smallest grid resolution possible from the high-density SCI lidar is not necessarily optimal for calculating topographic metrics, high point-density data are essential for measuring DEM uncertainty across a range of resolutions.
Paleogeographic reconstructions of terranes can greatly benefit from the provenance analysis of sediments. A series of Cenozoic basins provide key sedimentary archives for investigating the growth of the Tibetan Plateau, yet the provenance of the sediments in these basins has never been constrained robustly. Here we report sedimentary petrological and detrital zircon geochronological data from the Paleocene-Eocene Nangqian-Xialaxiu and Gongjue basins. Sandstone detrital modes and zircon morphology suggest that the samples collected in these two basins were sourced from recycled orogen. Detrital zircon geochronology indicates that sediments in the Nangqian-Xialaxiu Basin are characterized by two distinct age populations at 220-280 Ma and 405-445 Ma. In contrast, three predominant age populations of 207-256 Ma, 423-445 Ma, and 1851-1868 Ma, and two subordinate age populations of similar to 50 Ma and similar to 2500 Ma, are recognized in the Gongjue Basin. Comparison with detrital zircon ages from the surrounding terranes suggests that sediments in the Nangqian-Xialaxiu Basin come from the neighboring thrust belts, whereas sediments from the Gongjue Basin are predominantly derived from the distant Songpan-Ganzi Terrane with minor contribution from the surrounding areas. A three-stage Cenozoic evolution of the eastern Tibetan Plateau is proposed. During the Paleocene, the Nangqian-Xialaxiu Basin appeared as a set of small intermontane sub-basins and received plentiful sediments from the neighboring mountain belts; during the Eocene, the Gongjue Basin kept a relatively low altitude and was a depression at the edge of a proto-Plateau; since the Oligocene, the Tibetan Plateau further uplifted and the marginal Gongjue Basin was involved in the Tibetan interior orogeny, indicating the eastward propagation of the Tibetan Plateau.
The 2-D distinct element method (DEM) code (PFC2D_V5) is used here to simulate the evolution of subsidence-related karst landforms, such as single and clustered sinkholes, and associated larger-scale depressions. Subsurface material in the DEM model is removed progressively to produce an array of cavities; this simulates a network of subsurface groundwater conduits growing by chemical/mechanical erosion. The growth of the cavity array is coupled mechanically to the gravitationally loaded surroundings, such that cavities can grow also in part by material failure at their margins, which in the limit can produce individual collapse sinkholes. Two end-member growth scenarios of the cavity array and their impact on surface subsidence were examined in the models: (1) cavity growth at the same depth level and growth rate; (2) cavity growth at progressively deepening levels with varying growth rates. These growth scenarios are characterised by differing stress patterns across the cavity array and its overburden, which are in turn an important factor for the formation of sinkholes and uvalalike depressions. For growth scenario (1), a stable compression arch is established around the entire cavity array, hindering sinkhole collapse into individual cavities and favouring block-wise, relatively even subsidence across the whole cavity array. In contrast, for growth scenario (2), the stress system is more heterogeneous, such that local stress concentrations exist around individual cavities, leading to stress interactions and local wall/overburden fractures. Consequently, sinkhole collapses occur in individual cavities, which results in uneven, differential subsidence within a larger-scale depression. Depending on material properties of the cavity-hosting material and the overburden, the larger-scale depression forms either by sinkhole coalescence or by widespread subsidence linked geometrically to the entire cavity array. The results from models with growth scenario (2) are in close agreement with surface morphological and subsurface geophysical observations from an evaporite karst area on the eastern shore of the Dead Sea.
Thermokarst results from the thawing of ice-rich permafrost and alters the biogeochemical cycling in the Arctic by reworking soil material and redistributing soil organic carbon (SOC) and total nitrogen (TN) along uplands, hillslopes, and lowlands. Understanding the impact of this redistribution is key to better estimating the storage of SOC in permafrost terrains. However, there are insufficient studies quantifying long-term impacts of thaw processes on the distribution of SOC and TN along hillslopes. We address this issue by providing estimates of SOC and TN stocks along the hillslopes of three valleys located on Herschel Island (Yukon, Canada), and by discussing the impact of hillslope thermokarst on the variability of SOC and TN stocks. We found that the average SOC and TN 0-100 cm stocks in the valleys were 26.4 +/- 8.9 kg C m(-2) and 2.1 +/- 0.6 kg N m(-2). We highlight the strong variability in the soils physical and geochemical properties within hillslope positions. High SOC stocks were found at the summits, essentially due to burial of organic matter by cryoturbation, and at the toeslopes due to impeded drainage which favored peat formation and SOC accumulation. The average carbon-to-nitrogen ratio in the valleys was 12.9, ranging from 9.7 to 18.9, and was significantly higher at the summits compared to the backslopes and footslopes (p < 0.05), suggesting a degradation of SOC downhill. Carbon and nitrogen contents and stocks were significantly lower on 16% of the sites that were previously affected by hillslope thermokarst (p < 0.05). Our results showed that lateral redistribution of SOC and TN due to hillslope thermokarst has a strong impact on the SOC storage in ice-rich permafrost terrains.
The one-dimensional (1-D) approach is still the dominant method to incorporate site effects in engineering applications. To bridge the 1-D to multidimensional site response analysis, we develop quantitative criteria and a reproducible method to identify KiK-net sites with significant deviations from 1-D behavior. We found that 158 out of 354 show two-dimensional (2-D) and three-dimensional (3-D) effects, extending the resonance toward shorter periods at which 2-D or 3-D site effects exceed those of the classic 1-D configurations and imposing an additional amplification to that caused by the impedance contrast alone. Such 2-D and 3-D effects go along with a large within-station ground motion variability. Remarkably, these effects are found to be more pronounced for small impedance contrasts. While it is hardly possible to identify common features in ground motion behavior for stations with similar topography typologies, it is not over-conservative to apply a safety factor to account for 2-D and 3-D site effects in ground motion modeling.
Ongoing development of dynamical atmosphere-ocean general circulation models keep expectations high regarding seasonal predictions of Indian monsoon rainfall. This study compares past and present skill of four currently operating forecasting systems, CFSv2 from NCEP, ENSEMBLES, System 4 and the newest SEAS5 from ECMWF, by analysing correlations of respective hindcasts with observed all-India summer rainfall. For the common time period 1982-2005, only ENSEMBLES and CFSv2 give significantly skilful forecasts. It is shown that skill is highly dependent on the chosen time period. Especially the intense El Nino of 1997 seems to degrade the predictions, most notably for SEAS4 and SEAS5 which seem to be linked to El Nino too strongly. We show that by discarding that year, a regime shift in the 1990s is no longer visible. Overall, we observe a convergence of skill towards the present with correlations of about 0.4 for CFSv2 and of 0.6 for System 4 and SEAS5.
Several hydraulic fracturing tests were performed in boreholes located in central Hungary in order to determine the in-situ stress for a geological site investigation. At a depth of about 540m, the observed pressure versus time curves in mica schist with low dip angle foliation shows atypical pressure versus time results. After each pressurization cycle, the fracture breakdown pressure in the first fracturing cycle is lower than the refracturing or reopening pressure in the subsequent pressurizations. It is assumed that the viscosity of the drilling mud and observed foliation of the mica schist have a significant influence on the pressure values. In order to study this problem, numerical modeling was performed using the distinct element code particle flow code, which has been proven to be a valuable tool to investigate rock engineering problems such as hydraulic fracturing. The two-dimensional version of the code applied in this study can simulate hydro-mechanically coupled fluid flow in crystalline rock with low porosity and pre-existing fractures. In this study, the effect of foliation angle and fluid viscosity on the peak pressure is tested. The atypical characteristics of the pressure behaviour are interpreted so that mud with higher viscosity penetrates the sub-horizontal foliation plane, blocks the plane of weakness and makes the partly opened fracture tight and increase the pore pressure which decreases slowly with time. We see this viscous blocking effect as one explanation for the observed increase in fracture reopening pressure in subsequent pressurization cycles.
The question of whether urbanization contributes to increasing carbon dioxide emissions has been mainly investigated via scaling relationships with population or population density. However, these approaches overlook the correlations between population and area, and ignore possible interactions between these quantities. Here, we propose a generalized framework that simultaneously considers the effects of population and area along with possible interactions between these urban metrics. Our results significantly improve the description of emissions and reveal the coupled role between population and density on emissions. These models show that variations in emissions associated with proportionate changes in population or density may not only depend on the magnitude of these changes but also on the initial values of these quantities. For US areas, the larger the city, the higher is the impact of changing its population or density on its emissions; but population changes always have a greater effect on emissions than population density.
The propagation of a seismic rupture on a fault introduces spatial variations in the seismic wave field surrounding the fault. This directivity effect results in larger shaking amplitudes in the rupture propagation direction. Its seismic radiation pattern also causes amplitude variations between the strike-normal and strike-parallel components of horizontal ground motion. We investigated the landslide response to these effects during the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake (M-w 7.1) in central Kyushu (Japan). Although the distribution of some 1500 earthquake-triggered landslides as a function of rupture distance is consistent with the observed Arias intensity, the landslides were more concentrated to the northeast of the southwest-northeast striking rupture. We examined several landslide susceptibility factors: hillslope inclination, the median amplification factor (MAF) of ground shaking, lithology, land cover, and topographic wetness. None of these factors sufficiently explains the landslide distribution or orientation (aspect), although the landslide head scarps have an elevated hillslope inclination and MAF. We propose a new physics-based ground-motion model (GMM) that accounts for the seismic rupture effects, and we demonstrate that the low-frequency seismic radiation pattern is consistent with the overall landslide distribution. Its spatial pattern is influenced by the rupture directivity effect, whereas landslide aspect is influenced by amplitude variations between the fault-normal and fault-parallel motion at frequencies < 2 Hz. This azimuth dependence implies that comparable landslide concentrations can occur at different distances from the rupture. This quantitative link between the prevalent landslide aspect and the low-frequency seismic radiation pattern can improve coseismic landslide hazard assessment.
The significance of phytoliths for the control of silicon (Si) fluxes from terrestrial to aquatic ecosystems has been recognized as a key factor. Humankind actively influences Si fluxes by intensified land use, i.e., agriculture and forestry, on a global scale. We hypothesized phytolith distribution and assemblages in soils of agricultural and forestry sites to be controlled by vegetation (which is directed by land use) with direct effects on extractable Si fractions driven mainly by phytolith characteristics, i.e., dissolution status (dissolution signs) and morphology (morphotype proportions). To test our hypothesis we combined different chemical extraction methods (calcium chloride, ammonium oxalate, Tiron) for the quantification of different Si fractions (plant available Si, Si adsorbed to/occluded in pedogenic oxides/hydroxides, amorphous Si) and microscopic techniques (light microscopy, confocal laser scanning microscopy, scanning electron microscopy) for detailed analyses of phytoliths extracted using gravimetric separation (physical extraction) from exemplary loess soils of agricultural (arable land and grassland/meadow) and forestry (beech and pine) sites in Poland. We found differences in dissolution signs, morphotype proportions, and vertical distribution of phytoliths in soil horizons per site. In general, dominant morphotypes of assignable phytoliths in the studied soil profiles were elongate phytoliths and short cells, both of which are typical for grass-dominated vegetation. However, the organic layers of forest soils were dominated by globular phytoliths, which are typical indicators for mosses. As expected soil horizons under different vegetation generally were characterized by differences in extractable Si fractions, especially in the upper soil horizons. However, phytogenic Si pools counter-intuitively showed no correlations with chemically extracted Si fractions and soil pH at all. Our findings indicate that it is necessary to combine microscopic analyses and Si extraction techniques for examinations of Si cycling in biogeosystems, because extractions of Si fractions alone do not allow drawing any conclusions about phytolith characteristics or interactions between phytolith pools and chemically extractable Si fractions and do not necessarily reflect phytogenic Si pool quantities in soils and vice versa.
Proxy records from climate archives provide evidence about past climate changes, but the recorded signal is affected by non-climate-related effects as well as time uncertainty. As proxy-based climate reconstructions are frequently used to test climate models and to quantitatively infer past climate, we need to improve our understanding of the proxy record signal content as well as the uncertainties involved. In this study, we empirically estimate signal-to-noise ratios (SNRs) of temperature proxy records used in global compilations of the middle to late Holocene (last 6000 years). This is achieved through a comparison of the correlation of proxy time series from nearby sites of three compilations and model time series extracted at the proxy sites from two transient climate model simulations: a Holocene simulation of the ECHAM5/MPI-OM model and the Holocene part of the TraCE-21ka simulation. In all comparisons, we found the mean correlations of the proxy time series on centennial to millennial timescales to be low (R < 0.2), even for nearby sites, which resulted in low SNR estimates. The estimated SNRs depend on the assumed time uncertainty of the proxy records, the timescale analysed, and the model simulation used. Using the spatial correlation structure of the ECHAM5/MPI-OM simulation, the estimated SNRs on centennial timescales ranged from 0.05 - assuming no time uncertainty - to 0.5 for a time uncertainty of 400 years. On millennial timescales, the estimated SNRs were generally higher. Use of the TraCE-21ka correlation structure generally resulted in lower SNR estimates than for ECHAM5/MPI-OM. As the number of available high-resolution proxy records continues to grow, a more detailed analysis of the signal content of specific proxy types should become feasible in the near future. The estimated low signal content of Holocene temperature compilations should caution against over-interpretation of these multi-proxy and multisite syntheses until further studies are able to facilitate a better characterisation of the signal content in paleoclimate records.
Shear-waves are the most energetic body-waves radiated from an earthquake, and are responsible for the destruction of engineered structures. In both short-term emergency response and long-term risk forecasting of disaster-resilient built environment, it is critical to predict spatially accurate distribution of shear-wave amplitudes. Although decades’ old theory proposes a deterministic, highly anisotropic, four-lobed shear-wave radiation pattern, from lack of convincing evidence, most empirical ground-shaking prediction models settled for an oversimplified stochastic radiation pattern that is isotropic on average. Today, using the large datasets of uniformly processed seismograms from several strike, normal, reverse, and oblique-slip earthquakes across the globe, compiled specifically for engineering applications, we could reveal, quantify, and calibrate the frequency-, distance-, and style-of-faulting dependent transition of shear-wave radiation between a stochastic-isotropic and a deterministic-anisotropic phenomenon. Consequent recalibration of empirical ground-shaking models dramatically improved their predictions: with isodistant anisotropic variations of ±40%, and 8% reduction in uncertainty. The outcomes presented here can potentially trigger a reappraisal of several practical issues in engineering seismology, particularly in seismic ground-shaking studies and seismic hazard and risk assessment.
Measuring (dis)similarity between ecosystem states is a key theme in ecology. Much of community and ecosystem ecology is devoted to searching for patterns in ecosystem similarity from an external observer's viewpoint, using variables such as species abundances, measures of diversity and complexity. However, from the point of view of organisms in the ecosystem, proportional population growth rates are the only relevant aspect of ecosystem state, because natural selection acts on groups of organisms with different proportional population growth rates. We therefore argue that two ecosystem states are equivalent if and only if, for each species they contain, the proportional population growth rate does not differ between the states. Based on this result, we develop species-level and aggregated summary measures of ecosystem state and discuss their ecological meaning. We illustrate our approach using a long-term dataset on the plankton community from the Central European Lake Constance. We show that the first three principal components of proportional population growth rates describe most of the variation in ecosystem state in Lake Constance. We strongly recommend using proportional population growth rates and the derived equivalence classes for comparative ecosystem studies. This opens up new perspectives on important existing topics such as alternative stable ecosystem states, community assembly, and the processes generating regularities in ecosystems.
Geysers are hot springs whose frequency of water eruptions remain poorly understood. We set up a local broadband seismic network for 1 year at Strokkur geyser, Iceland, and developed an unprecedented catalog of 73,466 eruptions. We detected 50,135 single eruptions but find that the geyser is also characterized by sets of up to six eruptions in quick succession. The number of single to sextuple eruptions exponentially decreased, while the mean waiting time after an eruption linearly increased (3.7 to 16.4 min). While secondary eruptions within double to sextuple eruptions have a smaller mean seismic amplitude, the amplitude of the first eruption is comparable for all eruption types. We statistically model the eruption frequency assuming discharges proportional to the eruption multiplicity and a constant probability for subsequent events within a multituple eruption. The waiting time after an eruption is predictable but not the type or amplitude of the next one. <br /> Plain Language Summary Geysers are springs that often erupt in hot water fountains. They erupt more often than volcanoes but are quite similar. Nevertheless, it is poorly understood how often volcanoes and also geysers erupt. We created a list of 73,466 eruption times of Strokkur geyser, Iceland, from 1 year of seismic data. The geyser erupted one to six times in quick succession. We found 50,135 single eruptions but only 1 sextuple eruption, while the mean waiting time increased from 3.7 min after single eruptions to 16.4 min after sextuple eruptions. Mean amplitudes of each eruption type were higher for single eruptions, but all first eruptions in a succession were similar in height. Assuming a constant heat inflow at depth, we can predict the waiting time after an eruption but not the type or amplitude of the next one.
Costs of adaptation in the developing world have been mostly equated to those of climate proofing infrastructure under the assumption of unconstrained knowledge and planning capacities. To correct this, we introduce a cost-scaling methodology estimating sectoral investments to enhance the knowledge and planning capacities of countries based on an empirical collection of 385 climate-related projects. We estimate that circa 9.2 billion USD are required for financing knowledge and planning activities in developing countries in 2015. The agricultural and water sectors demand the higher investments ? 3.8 and 3.5 billion USD, respectively. Average investments between 2015 and 2050 are projected at 7 billion USD per year ? the largest fraction of which (4 billion) in Africa. Investments in this study were found to constitute approximately 40%, 20?60% and 5?15% of previous cost estimates to climate-proof infrastructure in the agricultural, water, and coastal sectors, respectively. The effort to finance the knowledge and planning capacities in developing countries is therefore not marginal relative to the costs of adapting infrastructure. The findings underline the potential of using empirical collections of climate-related projects for adaptation cost assessments as complementary to process and economic models.
There is a shortage of sediment-routing monitoring worldwide, despite its relevance to environmental processes. In drylands, where water resources are more vulnerable to the sediment dynamics, this flaw is even more harmful. In the semi-arid Caatinga biome in the North-east of Brazil, rivers are almost all intermittent and hydro-sedimentological monitoring is scarce. In the biome, water supply derives from thousands of surface reservoirs, whose water availability is liable to be reduced by siltation and sediment-related pollution. The goal of this research was to evaluate the potential of multi-temporal high-resolution satellite imagery (RapidEye) to assess the suspended sediment concentration (SSC) in the medium-sized intermittent Jaguaribe River, Brazil, during a 5-year period. We validated 15 one-, two- and three-band indices for SSC estimation based on RapidEye spectral bands deduced in the context of the present investigation and nine indices proposed in the literature for other optical sensors, by comparing them with in-situ concentration data. The in-situ SSC data ranged from 67 mg.L-1 to 230 mg.L-1. We concluded that RapidEye images can assess moderate SSC of intermittent rivers, even when their discharge is low. The RapidEye indices performed better than those from literature. The spectral band that best represented SSC was the near infrared, whose performance improved when associated with the green band. This conclusion agrees with literature findings for diverse sedimentological contexts. The three-band spectral indices performed worse than those with only one or two spectral bands, showing that the use of a third band did not enhance the model ability. Besides, we show that the hydrological characteristics of semi-arid intermittent rivers generate difficulties to monitor SSC using optical satellite remote sensing, such as time-concentrated sediment yield; and its association with recent rainfall events and, therefore, with cloudy sky.
The novel space-borne Global Navigation Satellite System Reflectometry (GNSS-R) technique has recently shown promise in monitoring the ocean state and surface wind speed with high spatial coverage and unprecedented sampling rate. The L-band signals of GNSS are structurally able to provide a higher quality of observations from areas covered by dense clouds and under intense precipitation, compared to those signals at higher frequencies from conventional ocean scatterometers. As a result, studying the inner core of cyclones and improvement of severe weather forecasting and cyclone tracking have turned into the main objectives of GNSS-R satellite missions such as Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS). Nevertheless, the rain attenuation impact on GNSS-R wind speed products is not yet well documented. Evaluating the rain attenuation effects on this technique is significant since a small change in the GNSS-R can potentially cause a considerable bias in the resultant wind products at intense wind speeds. Based on both empirical evidence and theory, wind speed is inversely proportional to derived bistatic radar cross section with a natural logarithmic relation, which introduces high condition numbers (similar to ill-posed conditions) at the inversions to high wind speeds. This paper presents an evaluation of the rain signal attenuation impact on the bistatic radar cross section and the derived wind speed. This study is conducted simulating GNSS-R delay-Doppler maps at different rain rates and reflection geometries, considering that an empirical data analysis at extreme wind intensities and rain rates is impossible due to the insufficient number of observations from these severe conditions. Finally, the study demonstrates that at a wind speed of 30 m/s and incidence angle of 30 degrees, rain at rates of 10, 15, and 20 mm/h might cause overestimation as large as approximate to 0.65 m/s (2%), 1.00 m/s (3%), and 1.3 m/s (4%), respectively, which are still smaller than the CYGNSS required uncertainty threshold. The simulations are conducted in a pessimistic condition (severe continuous rainfall below the freezing height and over the entire glistening zone) and the bias is expected to be smaller in size in real environments.
Although quantitative isotope data from speleothems has been used to evaluate isotope-enabled model simulations, currently no consensus exists regarding the most appropriate methodology through which to achieve this. A number of modelling groups will be running isotope-enabled palaeoclimate simulations in the framework of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6, so it is timely to evaluate different approaches to using the speleothem data for data–model comparisons. Here, we illustrate this using 456 globally distributed speleothem δ18O records from an updated version of the Speleothem Isotopes Synthesis and Analysis (SISAL) database and palaeoclimate simulations generated using the ECHAM5-wiso isotope-enabled atmospheric circulation model. We show that the SISAL records reproduce the first-order spatial patterns of isotopic variability in the modern day, strongly supporting the application of this dataset for evaluating model-derived isotope variability into the past. However, the discontinuous nature of many speleothem records complicates the process of procuring large numbers of records if data–model comparisons are made using the traditional approach of comparing anomalies between a control period and a given palaeoclimate experiment. To circumvent this issue, we illustrate techniques through which the absolute isotope values during any time period could be used for model evaluation. Specifically, we show that speleothem isotope records allow an assessment of a model's ability to simulate spatial isotopic trends. Our analyses provide a protocol for using speleothem isotope data for model evaluation, including screening the observations to take into account the impact of speleothem mineralogy on δ18O values, the optimum period for the modern observational baseline and the selection of an appropriate time window for creating means of the isotope data for palaeo-time-slices.
Three small stalagmites from Zoolithencave (southern Germany) show visible laminae, which consist of a clear and a brownish, pigmented layer pair. This potentially provides the opportunity to construct precise chronologies by counting annual laminae. The growth period of the three stalagmites was constrained by the C-14 bomb peak in the youngest part of all three stalagmites and C-14-dating of a piece of charcoal in the consolidated base part of stalagmite Zoo-rez-2. These data suggest an age of AD 1970 for the top laminae and a lower age limit of AD 1973-1682 or AD 1735-1778. Laminae were counted and their thickness determined on scanned thin sections of all stalagmites. On stalagmites Zoo-rez-1 and -2, three tracks were measured near the growth axes, each separated into three sections at prominent anchor laminae (I, II, III). Each section was replicated three times (a, b, c). For Zoo-rez-3, only one track was measured. The total number of laminae counted for Zoo-rez-1 ranges from 138 to 177, for Zoo-rez-2 from 119 to 145, and for Zoo-rez-3 from 159 to 166. The numbers agree well with the range constrained by the bomb peak and the age of the charcoal, which supports the annual origin of the laminae. The replicated measurements of the different tracks as well as the three different tracks on the stalagmites Zoo-rez-1 and-2 were cross-dated using the TSAP-Win (R) tree-ring software. This software is very useful for cross-dating because it enables to insert or delete missing or false laminae as well as identifying common pattern by shifting the series back and forth in time. However, visual inspection of the thin sections was necessary to confirm detection of missing or false laminae by TSAP-Win (R). For all three Zoo-rez speleothems, crossdating of the mean lamina thickness series was not possible due to a missing common pattern. The cross-dating procedure results in three refined chronologies for the three Zoo-rez stalagmites of ranging from AD 1821-1970 (Zoo-rez-1), AD 1835-1970 (Zoo-rez-2), and AD 1808-1970 (Zoo-rez-3).
Evolution of Large-Scale Magnetic Fields From Near-Earth Space During the Last 11 Solar Cycles
(2019)
We use hourly mean magnetic field measurements from 34 midlatitude geomagnetic observatories between 1900 and 2015 to investigate the long-term evolution and driving mechanism of the large-scale external magnetic field at ground. The Hourly Magnetospheric Currents index (HMC) is derived as a refinement of the Annual Magnetospheric Currents index (HMC, Pick & Korte, 2017, https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggx367). HMC requires an extensive revision of the observatory hourly means. It depends on three third party geomagnetic field models used to eliminate the core, the crustal, and the ionospheric solar-quiet field contributions. We mitigate the dependency of HMC on the core field model by subtracting only nondipolar components of the model from the data. The separation of the residual (dipolar) signal into internal and external (HMC) parts is the main methodological challenge. Observatory crustal biases are updated with respect to AMC, and the solar-quiet field estimation is extended to the past based on a reconstruction of solar radio flux (F10.7). We find that HMC has more power at low frequencies (periods = 1 year) than the Dcx index, especially at periods relevant to the solar cycle. Most of the slow variations in HMC can be explained by the open solar magnetic flux. There is a weakly decreasing linear trend in absolute HMC from 1900 to present, which depends sensitively on the data rejection criteria at early years. HMC is well suited for studying long-term variations of the geomagnetic field.
Stochastic modeling is a common practice for modeling uncertainty in hydrogeology. In stochastic modeling, aquifer properties are characterized by their probability density functions (PDFs). The Bayesian approach for inverse modeling is often used to assimilate information from field measurements collected at a site into properties’ posterior PDFs. This necessitates the definition of a prior PDF, characterizing the knowledge of hydrological properties before undertaking any investigation at the site, and usually coming from previous studies at similar sites. In this paper, we introduce a Bayesian hierarchical algorithm capable of assimilating various information–like point measurements, bounds and moments–into a single, informative PDF that we call ex-situ prior. This informative PDF summarizes the ex-situ information available about a hydrogeological parameter at a site of interest, which can then be used as a prior PDF in future studies at the site. We demonstrate the behavior of the algorithm on several synthetic case studies, compare it to other methods described in the literature, and illustrate the approach by applying it to a public open-access hydrogeological dataset.
We studied FeCO3 using Fe K-edge X-ray absorption near-edge structure (XANES) spectroscopy at pressures up to 54 GPa and temperatures above 2000 K. First-principles calculations of Fe at the K-edge in FeCO3 were performed to support the interpretation of the XANES spectra. The variation of iron absorption edge features with pressure and temperature in FeCO3 matches well with recently reported observations on FeCO3 at extreme conditions, and provides new insight into the stability of Fe-carbonates in Earth's mantle. Here we show that at conditions of the mid-lower mantle, ~50 GPa and ~2200 K, FeCO3 melts and partially decomposes to high-pressure Fe3O4. Carbon (diamond) and oxygen are also inferred products of the reaction. We constrained the thermodynamic phase boundary between crystalline FeCO3 and melt to be at 51(1) GPa and ~1850 K. We observe that at 54(1) GPa, temperature-induced spin crossover of Fe2+ takes place from low to high spin such that at 1735(100) K, all iron in FeCO3 is in the high-spin state. A comparison between experiment and theory provides a more detailed understanding of FeCO3 decomposition observed in X-ray absorption spectra and helps to explain spectral changes due to pressure-induced spin crossover in FeCO3 at ambient temperature.
Anthropogenic pressures increasingly alter natural systems. Therefore, understanding the resilience of agent-based complex systems such as ecosystems, i.e. their ability to absorb these pressures and sustain their functioning and services, is a major challenge. However, the mechanisms underlying resilience are still poorly understood. A main reason for this is the multidimensionality of both resilience, embracing the three fundamental stability properties recovery, resistance and persistence, and of the specific situations for which stability properties can be assessed. Agent-based models (ABM) complement empirical research which is, for logistic reasons, limited in coping with these multiple dimensions. Besides their ability to integrate multidimensionality through extensive manipulation in a fully controlled system, ABMs can capture the emergence of system resilience from individual interactions and feedbacks across different levels of organization. To assess the extent to which this potential of ABMs has already been exploited, we reviewed the state of the art in exploring resilience and its multidimensionality in ecological and socio-ecological systems with ABMs. We found that the potential of ABMs is not utilized in most models, as they typically focus on a single dimension of resilience by using variability as a proxy for persistence, and are limited to one reference state, disturbance type and scale. Moreover, only few studies explicitly test the ability of different mechanisms to support resilience. To overcome these limitations, we recommend to simultaneously assess multiple stability properties for different situations and under consideration of the mechanisms that are hypothesised to render a system resilient. This will help us to better exploit the potential of ABMs to understand and quantify resilience mechanisms, and hence support solving real-world problems related to the resilience of agent-based complex systems.
Climate and weather conditions in the mid-latitudes are strongly driven by the large-scale atmosphere circulation. Observational data indicate that important components of the large-scale circulation have changed in recent decades, including the strength and the width of the Hadley cell, jets, storm tracks and planetary waves. Here, we use a new statistical-dynamical atmosphere model (SDAM) to test the individual sensitivities of the large-scale atmospheric circulation to changes in the zonal temperature gradient, meridional temperature gradient and global-mean temperature. We analyze the Northern Hemisphere Hadley circulation, jet streams, storm tracks and planetary waves by systematically altering the zonal temperature asymmetry, the meridional temperature gradient and the global-mean temperature. Our results show that the strength of the Hadley cell, storm tracks and jet streams depend, in terms of relative changes, almost linearly on both the global-mean temperature and the meridional temperature gradient, whereas the zonal temperature asymmetry has little or no influence. The magnitude of planetary waves is affected by all three temperature components, as expected from theoretical dynamical considerations. The width of the Hadley cell behaves nonlinearly with respect to all three temperature components in the SDAM. Moreover, some of these observed large-scale atmospheric changes are expected from dynamical equations and are therefore an important part of model validation.
Compound flooding, such as the co-occurrence of fluvial floods and extreme coastal water levels (CWL), may lead to significant impacts in densely-populated Low Elevation Coastal Zones. They may overstrain disaster management owing to the co-occurrence of inundation from rivers and the sea. Recent studies are limited by analyzing joint dependence between river discharge and either CWL or storm surges, and little is known about return levels of compound flooding, accounting for the covariance between drivers. Here, we assess the compound flood severity and identify hotspots for northwestern Europe during 1970–2014, using a newly developed Compound Hazard Ratio (CHR) that compares the severity of compound flooding associated with extreme CWL with the unconditional T-year fluvial peak discharge. We show that extreme CWL and stronger storms greatly amplify fluvial flood hazards. Our results, based on frequency analyses of observational records during 2013/2014’s winter storm Xaver, reveal that the river discharge of the 50-year compound flood is up to 70% larger, conditioned on the occurrence of extreme CWL, than that of the at-site peak discharge. For this event, nearly half of the stream gauges show increased flood hazards, demonstrating the importance of including the compounding effect of extreme CWL in river flood risk management.
Thrombolite and stromatolite habitats are becoming increasingly recognized as important refuges for invertebrates during Phanerozoic Oceanic Anoxic Events (OAEs); it is posited that oxygenic photosynthesis by cyanobacteria in these microbialites provided a refuge from anoxic conditions (i.e., the "microbialite refuge" hypothesis). Here, we test this hypothesis by investigating the distribution of ~34, 500 benthic invertebrate fossils found in ~100 samples from a microbialite succession that developed following the latest Permian mass extinction event on the Great Bank of Guizhou (South China), representing microbial (stromatolites and thrombolites) and non-microbial facies. The stromatolites were the least taxonomically diverse facies, and the thrombolites also recorded significantly lower diversities when compared to the non-microbial facies. Based on the distribution and ornamentation of the bioclasts within the thrombolites and stromatolites, the bioclasts are inferred to have been transported and concentrated in the non-microbial fabrics, that is, cavities around the microbial framework. Therefore, many of the identified metazoans from the post-extinction microbialites are not observed to have been living within a microbial mat. Furthermore, the lifestyle of many of the taxa identified from the microbialites was not suited for, or even amenable to, life within a benthic microbial mat. The high diversity of oxygen-dependent metazoans in the non-microbial facies on the Great Bank of Guizhou, and inferences from geochemical records, suggests that the microbialites and benthic communities developed in oxygenated environments, which disproves that the microbes were the source of the oxygenation. Instead, we posit that microbialite successions represent a taphonomic window for exceptional preservation of the biota, similar to a Konzentrat-Lagerstatte, which has allowed for diverse fossil assemblages to be preserved during intervals of poor preservation.
Ferns are among the most popular groups of plants in the tropics and subtropics, and their role as carbon sequestrators has been widely recognized. However, there is little understanding of the silicaceous structures (phytoliths) of ferns, rate of phytolith turnover, the consequences for organic matter sequestered in phytoliths and consequences for other soil properties. In the study reported here, high-resolution X-ray tomographic microscopy and chemical characterization were applied to examine the traits of phytoliths of the fern Dicranopteris linearis (Burm.f.) Underw. (D. linearis), with a focus on their dissolution properties and accumulation in northern Vietnamese soils in relation to soil properties. Tomographic images revealed an inter-embedding structure of silica and organic matter, especially in leaf-derived material. We propose that organic matter and silica can preserve each other against decomposition. In batch experiments, there was a relatively small rate of dissolution of phytoliths with dry ashing and subsequent H2O2 treatment. Silicon (Si) dissolution for D. linearis phytolith samples was much less than that for rice phytoliths. Despite the fact that the aluminum (Al) content was large in D. linearis leaves, batch dissolution data did not confirm a relation between Al and the slow rate of phytolith dissolution. The soil phytolith content varied from 0.9 to 7.5 g kg(-1) in the topsoil across the mountainous areas in northern Vietnam, whereas it tended to be smaller in the subsoil. The data indicate a relation between phytolith and soil organic matter, clay content, oxalate-soluble Al and electrical conductivity, suggesting that these soil properties are among the important factors affecting the size of the soil phytolith Si pool. Highlights
Large-magnitude fluid-injection induced seismic events are a potential risk for geothermal energy developments worldwide. One potential risk mitigation measure is the application of cyclic injection schemes. After validation at small (laboratory) and meso (mine) scale, the concept has now been applied for the first time at field scale at the Pohang Enhanced Geothermal System (EGS) site in Korea. From 7 August until 14 August 2017 a total of 1756 m(3) of surface water was injected into Pohang well PX-1 at flow rates between 1 and 10 l s(-1), with a maximum wellhead pressure (WHP) of 22.8 MPa, according to a site-specific cyclic soft stimulation schedule and traffic light system. A total of 52 induced microearthquakes were detected in real-time during and shortly after the injection, the largest of M-w 1.9. After that event a total of 1771 m(3) of water was produced back from the well over roughly 1 month, during which time no larger-magnitude seismic event was observed. The hydraulic data set exhibits pressure-dependent injectivity increase with fracture opening between 15 and 17 MPa WHP, but no significant permanent transmissivity increase was observed. The maximum magnitude of the induced seismicity during the stimulation period was below the target threshold of M-w 2.0 and additional knowledge about the stimulated reservoir was gained. Additionally, the technical feasibility of cyclic injection at field scale was evaluated. The major factors that limited the maximum earthquake magnitude are believed to be: limiting the injected net fluid volume, flowback after the occurrence of the largest induced seismic event, using a cyclic injection scheme, the application of a traffic light system, and including a priori information from previous investigations and operations in the treatment design.
Flood risk will increase in many areas around the world due to climate change and increase in economic exposure. This implies that adequate flood insurance schemes are needed to adapt to increasing flood risk and to minimise welfare losses for households in flood-prone areas. Flood insurance markets may need reform to offer sufficient and affordable financial protection and incentives for risk reduction. Here, we present the results of a study that aims to evaluate the ability of flood insurance arrangements in Europe to cope with trends in flood risk, using criteria that encompass common elements of the policy debate on flood insurance reform. We show that the average risk-based flood insurance premium could double between 2015 and 2055 in the absence of more risk reduction by households exposed to flooding. We show that part of the expected future increase in flood risk could be limited by flood insurance mechanisms that better incentivise risk reduction by policyholders, which lowers vulnerability. The affordability of flood insurance can be improved by introducing the key features of public-private partnerships (PPPs), which include public reinsurance, limited premium cross-subsidisation between low- and high-risk households, and incentives for policyholder-level risk reduction. These findings were evaluated in a comprehensive sensitivity analysis and support ongoing reforms in Europe and abroad that move towards risk-based premiums and link insurance with risk reduction, strengthen purchase requirements, and engage in multi-stakeholder partnerships.
Flood risk perceptions and the willingness to pay for flood insurance in the Veneto region of Italy
(2019)
The floodplain of the Veneto region (north-east Italy) is one of the most inhabited and economically competitive urban landscapes in Europe. Moreover, recent flood events have caused millions of Euros in damage across the region. Due to the combined influence of climate change and socio-economic development, flood impacts are expected to grow. Therefore, it is important for all flood-prone individuals to actively manage and limit flood risk through property-level flood risk management as part of an integrated flood risk management strategy. This is in line with the calls for wider community engagement in risk management in the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction and the Sustainable Development Goals. Therefore, an online-survey of Veneto region residents was conducted asking questions regarding flood risk perceptions, preparedness, and preferences towards flood insurance via self-stated willingness to pay (WTP). Our analysis provides an initial indication that while flood risk knowledge is high, it may not be sufficient to encourage proactive risk management. From the WTP values provided people seem reluctant to buy insurance. However, many respondents expressed that a compulsory insurance system may be acceptable. In such a scheme the estimated insurance premium could fall to between (sic)26 and (sic)42 per year, as compared to, potentially, (sic)800 under risk-based premiums, which falls within the majority of WTP estimates provided ((sic)0-(sic)250). Overall, we identify areas of future research that are critical for the better design of risk management policies, supporting the insurance companies in risk management and for recommendations regarding property-level risk management.
We present a model of the electrical resistivity structure of the lithosphere in the Central Andes between 20 degrees and 24 degrees S from 3-D inversion of 56 long-period magnetotelluric sites. Our model shows a complex resistivity structure with significant variability parallel and perpendicular to the trench direction. The continental forearc is characterized mainly by high electrical resistivity (>1,000m), suggesting overall low volumes of fluids. However, low resistivity zones (LRZs, <5m) were found in the continental forearc below areas where major trench-parallel faults systems intersect NW-SE transverse faults. Forearc LRZs indicate circulation and accumulation of fluids in highly permeable fault zones. The continental crust along the arc shows three distinctive resistivity domains, which coincide with segmentation in the distribution of volcanoes. The northern domain (20 degrees-20.5 degrees S) is characterized by resistivities >1,000m and the absence of active volcanism, suggesting the presence of a low-permeability block in the continental crust. The central domain (20.5 degrees-23 degrees S) exhibits a number of LRZs at varying depths, indicating different levels of a magmatic plumbing system. The southern domain (23 degrees-24 degrees S) is characterized by resistivities >1,000m, suggesting the absence of large magma reservoirs below the volcanic chain at crustal depths. Magma reservoirs located below the base of the crust or in the backarc may fed active volcanism in the southern domain. In the subcontinental mantle, the model exhibits LRZs in the forearc mantle wedge and above clusters of intermediate-depth seismicity, likely related to fluids produced by serpentinization of the mantle and eclogitization of the slab, respectively.
Foreword
(2019)
With the Late Cretaceous onset of Africa-Iberia-Europe convergence Central Europe experienced a pulse of intraplate shortening lasting some 15-20 Myr. This deformation event documents area-wide deviatoric compression of Europe and has been interpreted as a far-field response to Africa-Iberia-Europe convergence. However, the factors that governed the compression of Europe and conditioned the transient character of the deformation event have remained unclear. Based on mechanical considerations, numerical simulations, and geological reconstructions, we examine how the dynamics of intraplate deformation were governed by the formation of a convergent plate boundary fault between Iberia and Europe. During the Late Cretaceous, plate convergence was accommodated by the inversion of a young hyperextended rift system separating Iberia from Europe. Our analysis shows that the strength of the lithosphere beneath this rift was initially sufficient to transmit large compressive stresses far into Europe, though the lithosphere beneath the rift was thinned and thermally weakened. Continued convergence forced the formation of the plate boundary fault between Iberia and Europe. The fault evolved progressively and constituted a lithospheric-scale structure at the southern margin of Europe that weakened rheologically. This development caused a decrease in mechanical coupling between Iberia and Europe and a reduction of compressional far field stresses, which eventually terminated intraplate deformation in Central Europe. Taken together, our findings suggest that the Late Cretaceous intraplate deformation event records a high force transient that relates to the earliest strength evolution of a lithospheric-scale plate boundary fault.
The near-polar orbit satellites of Swarm mission provide a good opportunity to investigate the conjugacy of equatorial plasma irregularities (EPIs) since their trajectories at low latitudes are basically aligned with fixed geographical longitude. However, the Swarm in situ electron density occasionally shows EPIs at only one hemisphere at this longitude. In this study, we provide detailed analysis of such EPI events from the in situ electron densities and onboard global positioning system (GPS) measurements of Swarm low pair satellites, and simultaneous GPS data from two geomagnetically conjugate ground stations at the Africa longitudes. The result indicates that when Swam in situ electron density sometime shows EPIs at only one hemisphere, the GPS scintillations are still observed from the Swarm onboard receiver and by the two conjugate ground stations. It implies that the EPIs should generally elongate along the geomagnetic flux tube. More than two-year statistic results show that the onset time of scintillation in the northern station is on average 16 and 18 min earlier than that in the southern station for September equinox and December solstice in 2015, while for March equinox in 2016 the onset time of scintillation of northern station is about 11 min later than that of southern station, which indicates the asymmetry features of EPIs along the flux tube. Further analysis of nearly three-year GPS data from two conjugate stations at the Asia longitudes, we find that during solar maximum years the local sunset time plays an important role for causing the difference of onset time of scintillation between two conjugate stations.
Human mortality shows a pronounced temperature dependence. The minimum mortality temperature (MMT) as a characteristic point of the temperature-mortality relationship is influenced by many factors. As MMT estimates are based on case studies, they are sporadic, limited to data-rich regions, and their drivers have not yet been clearly identified across case studies. This impedes the elaboration of spatially comprehensive impact studies on heat-related mortality and hampers the temporal transfer required to assess climate change impacts. Using 400 MMTs from cities, we systematically establish a generalised model that is able to estimate MMTs (in daily apparent temperature) for cities, based on a set of climatic, topographic and socio-economic drivers. A sigmoid model prevailed against alternative model setups due to having the lowest Akaike Information Criterion (AICc) and the smallest RMSE. We find the long-term climate, the elevation, and the socio-economy to be relevant drivers of our MMT sample within the non-linear parametric regression model. A first model application estimated MMTs for 599 European cities ( >100 000 inhabitants) and reveals a pronounced decrease in MMTs (27.8-16 degrees C) from southern to northern cities. Disruptions of this pattern across regions of similar mean temperatures can be explained by socio-economic standards as noted for central eastern Europe. Our alternative method allows to approximate MMTs independently from the availability of daily mortality records. For the first time, a quantification of climatic and non-climatic MMT drivers has been achieved, which allows to consider changes in socio-economic conditions and climate. This work contributes to the comparability among MMTs beyond location-specific and regional limits and, hence, towards a spatially comprehensive impact assessment for heat-related mortality.