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Using a novel agent-based model, we study how US withdrawal might influence the political process established by the Paris Agreement, and hence the prospects for reaching the collective goal to limit warming below 2 degrees C. Our model enables us to analyze to what extent reaching this goal despite US withdrawal would place more stringent requirements on other core elements of the Paris cooperation process. We find, first, that the effect of a US withdrawal depends critically on the extent to which member countries reciprocate others' promises and contributions. Second, while the 2 degrees C goal will likely be reached only under a very small set of conditions in any event, even temporary US withdrawal will further narrow this set significantly. Reaching this goal will then require other countries to step up their ambition at the first opportunity and to comply nearly 100% with their pledges, while maintaining high confidence in the Paris Agreements institutions. Third, although a US withdrawal will first primarily affect the United States' own emissions, it will eventually prove even more detrimental to other countries' emissions.
Dieser Beitrag in der Zeitschrift GIO schlägt eine äquivalenzfunktionalistische Perspektive auf postbürokratische Reformen vor, die Teile der Unsicherheitsabsorption von Organisationen in Interaktionssysteme verlagern. Postbürokratie versucht, organisationale und gesellschaftliche Entwicklungen in der zweiten Hälfte des 20. Jahrhunderts auf den Begriff zu bringen. Auch aktuelle agile Managementkonzepte lassen sich der Postbürokratie zuordnen und zeichnen sich unter anderem durch eine Multiplikation von Interaktionen aus. Mithilfe der Theorie sozialer Systeme untersuchen wir wie neue Unsicherheiten in Organisationen durch postbürokratische Reformen entstehen und von agilen Managementkonzepten bearbeitet werden. An den agilen Konzepten Scrum und Holacracy wird gezeigt, dass diese Verlagerung neuen Formalisierungsbedarf produziert. Im Fokus stehen dabei die Zentrierungen kommunikativer Interdependenzen in Interaktionen in der Sach‑, Zeit- und Sozialdimension. Der Beitrag plädiert für eine äquivalenzfunktionalistische Perspektive auf Postbürokratie, die den Zusammenhang von Formalisierungsverzicht in Organisationen und neuen Formalisierungsbedarfen als funktionalen Leistungszusammenhang begreift.
Organisation und Algorithmus
(2021)
Der vorliegende Beitrag analysiert, wie Organisationen Algorithmen, die wir als digitale Beobachtungsformate verstehen, mit Handlungsfähigkeit ausstatten und damit actionable machen. Das zentrale Argument lautet, dass die soziale Relevanz digitaler Beobachtungsformate sich daraus ergibt, dass und wie sie in organisationale Entscheidungsarchitekturen eingebettet sind. Diesen Zusammenhang illustrieren wir am Beispiel des österreichischen Arbeitsmarktservice (AMS), der 2018 einen Algorithmus einführte, um die Integrationschancen arbeitsuchender Personen zu bewerten. Der AMS steht dabei stellvertretend für aktuelle Bestrebungen vieler Organisationen, algorithmische Systeme einzusetzen, um knappe öffentliche Ressourcen vermeintlich effizienter zu distribuieren. Um zu rekonstruieren, wie dies geschieht, zeigen wir, welche Operationen des Kategorisierens, Vergleichens und Bewertens das algorithmische Modell vollzieht. Darauf aufbauend demonstrieren wir, wie das algorithmische Modell in die organisationale Entscheidungsarchitektur eingebunden ist. Erst durch diese Einbindung – die Möglichkeit, Unterschiede für andere, relativ stabil erzeugte Entscheidungen zu machen – entfaltet das digitale Beobachtungsformat soziale Relevanz. Abschließend argumentieren wir, dass algorithmische Modelle, wie sie am Fall des AMS beobachtet werden können, dazu tendieren, sich in Organisationen zu stabilisieren. Dies begründen wir damit, dass die organisationalen Lernchancen im Umgang mit dem Algorithmus dadurch reduziert sind, dass dieser in einem Bereich zum Einsatz kommt, der durch Technologiedefizit und koproduktive Leistungserstellung geprägt ist.
Focusing on forest policy and urban climate politics in Brazil and Indonesia, the primary objective of this chapter is to identify domestic pioneers and leaders who, compared to other sectors, governmental levels or jurisdictions within the same nation-state, move ‘ahead of the troops’ (Liefferink and Wurzel, 2017: 2-3). The chapter focuses especially on the role of multilevel governance in bringing about pioneership and leadership and on the different types of that have emerged. It also explores whether and, if so, to what extent domestic pioneers and leaders attract followers and whether there are signs of sustained domestic leadership. The chapter identifies the actors that constitute pioneers and leaders and assesses the processes which lead to their emergence. The chapter authors take up Wurzel et al.’s (2019) call to open up the black box of the nation-state. But instead of stressing the role of non-state actors, the chapter authors focus on vertical interactions among different governmental levels within nation states. The main argument put forward is that international and transnational processes, incentives, and ideas often trigger the development of domestic pioneership and leadership. Such processes, however, cannot be understood properly if domestic politics and dynamics across governmental levels within the nation-state are not taken into account.
Vorwort
(2021)
This study examines how public policies affect parents' preferences for a more egalitarian division of paid and unpaid work. Based on the assumption that individuals develop their preferences within a specific policy context, we examine how changes in three policies affect mothers' and fathers' work-family preferences: the availability of high-quality, affordable childcare; the right to return to a full-time job after having reduced hours to part-time and an increase in the number of 'partner months' in parental leave schemes. Analysing a unique probability sample of parents with young children in Germany from 2015 (N = 1756), we find that fathers would want to work slightly fewer hours if they had the right to return to a full-time position after working part-time, and mothers would want to work slightly more hours if childcare opportunities were improved. Full-time working parents, moreover, are found to prefer fewer hours independent of the policy setting, while non-employed parents would like to work at least some hours. Last but not least, our analyses show that increasing the number of partner months in the parental leave scheme considerably increases fathers' preferences for longer and mothers' preferences for shorter leave. Increasing the number of partner months in parental schemes hence has the greatest potential to increase gender equality.
Understanding and accounting for the effect of exchange rate fluctuations on global learning rates
(2020)
Learning rates are a central concept in energy system models and integrated assessment models, as they allow researchers to project the future costs of new technologies and to optimize energy system costs. Here we argue that exchange rate fluctuations are an important, but thus far overlooked, determinant of the learning-rate variance observed in the literature. We explore how empirically observed global learning rates depend on where technologies are installed and which currency is used to calculate the learning rate. Using global data of large-scale photovoltaic (>= 5 MW) plants, we show that the currency choice can result in learning-rate differences of up to 16 percentage points. We then introduce an adjustment factor to correct for the effect of exchange rate and market focus fluctuations and discuss the implications of our findings for innovation scholars, energy modellers and decision makers. <br /> Learning rates are a measure of reduction in costs of energy from technologies such as solar photovoltaics. These are often estimated internationally with all monetary figures converted to a single currency, often US dollars. Lilliestam et al. show that such conversions can significantly affect the learning rate estimates.
The European potential for renewable electricity is sufficient to enable fully renewable supply on different scales, from self-sufficient, subnational regions to an interconnected continent. We not only show that a continental-scale system is the cheapest, but also that systems on the national scale and below are possible at cost penalties of 20% or less. Transmission is key to low cost, but it is not necessary to vastly expand the transmission system. When electricity is transmitted only to balance fluctuations, the transmission grid size is comparable to today's, albeit with expanded cross-border capacities. The largest differences across scales concern land use and thus social acceptance: in the continental system, generation capacity is concentrated on the European periphery, where the best resources are. Regional systems, in contrast, have more dispersed generation. The key trade-off is therefore not between geographic scale and cost, but between scale and the spatial distribution of required generation and transmission infrastructure.
The economic context for renewable power in Europe is shifting: feed-in tariffs are replaced by auctioned premiums as the main support schemes. As renewables approach competitiveness, political pressure mounts to phase out support, whereas some other actors perceive a need for continued fixed-price support. We investigate how the phase-out of support or the reintroduction of feed-in tariffs would affect investors' choices for renewables through a conjoint analysis. In particular, we analyse the impact of coordination - the simultaneousness - of policy changes across countries and technologies. We find that investment choices are not strongly affected if policy changes are coordinated and returns unaffected. However, if policy changes are uncoordinated, investments shift to still supported - less mature and costlier - technologies or countries where support remains or is reintroduced. This shift is particularly strong for large investors and could potentially skew the European power mix towards an over-reliance on a single, less mature technology or specific generation region, resulting in a more expensive power system. If European countries want to change their renewable power support policies, and especially if they phase out support and expose renewables to market competition, it is important that they coordinate their actions.