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In the present study, we summarize and evaluate the endeavors from recent years to estimate the maximum possible earthquake magnitude m(max) from observed data. In particular, we use basic and physically motivated assumptions to identify best cases and worst cases in terms of lowest and highest degree of uncertainty of m(max). In a general framework, we demonstrate that earthquake data and earthquake proxy data recorded in a fault zone provide almost no information about m(max) unless reliable and homogeneous data of a long time interval, including several earthquakes with magnitude close to m(max), are available. Even if detailed earthquake information from some centuries including historic and paleoearthquakes are given, only very few, namely the largest events, will contribute at all to the estimation of m(max), and this results in unacceptably high uncertainties. As a consequence, estimators of m(max) in a fault zone, which are based solely on earthquake-related information from this region, have to be dismissed.
We show how the maximum magnitude within a predefined future time horizon may be estimated from an earthquake catalog within the context of Gutenberg-Richter statistics. The aim is to carry out a rigorous uncertainty assessment, and calculate precise confidence intervals based on an imposed level of confidence a. In detail, we present a model for the estimation of the maximum magnitude to occur in a time interval T-f in the future, given a complete earthquake catalog for a time period T in the past and, if available, paleoseismic events. For this goal, we solely assume that earthquakes follow a stationary Poisson process in time with unknown productivity Lambda and obey the Gutenberg-Richter law in magnitude domain with unknown b-value. The random variables. and b are estimated by means of Bayes theorem with noninformative prior distributions. Results based on synthetic catalogs and on retrospective calculations of historic catalogs from the highly active area of Japan and the low-seismicity, but high-risk region lower Rhine embayment (LRE) in Germany indicate that the estimated magnitudes are close to the true values. Finally, we discuss whether the techniques can be extended to meet the safety requirements for critical facilities such as nuclear power plants. For this aim, the maximum magnitude for all times has to be considered. In agreement with earlier work, we find that this parameter is not a useful quantity from the viewpoint of statistical inference.
Earthquake catalogs are probably the most informative data source about spatiotemporal seismicity evolution. The catalog quality in one of the most active seismogenic zones in the world, Japan, is excellent, although changes in quality arising, for example, from an evolving network are clearly present. Here, we seek the best estimate for the largest expected earthquake in a given future time interval from a combination of historic and instrumental earthquake catalogs. We extend the technique introduced by Zoller et al. (2013) to estimate the maximum magnitude in a time window of length T-f for earthquake catalogs with varying level of completeness. In particular, we consider the case in which two types of catalogs are available: a historic catalog and an instrumental catalog. This leads to competing interests with respect to the estimation of the two parameters from the Gutenberg-Richter law, the b-value and the event rate lambda above a given lower-magnitude threshold (the a-value). The b-value is estimated most precisely from the frequently occurring small earthquakes; however, the tendency of small events to cluster in aftershocks, swarms, etc. violates the assumption of a Poisson process that is used for the estimation of lambda. We suggest addressing conflict by estimating b solely from instrumental seismicity and using large magnitude events from historic catalogs for the earthquake rate estimation. Applying the method to Japan, there is a probability of about 20% that the maximum expected magnitude during any future time interval of length T-f = 30 years is m >= 9.0. Studies of different subregions in Japan indicates high probabilities for M 8 earthquakes along the Tohoku arc and relatively low probabilities in the Tokai, Tonankai, and Nankai region. Finally, for scenarios related to long-time horizons and high-confidence levels, the maximum expected magnitude will be around 10.
The knowledge of the largest expected earthquake magnitude in a region is one of the key issues in probabilistic seismic hazard calculations and the estimation of worst-case scenarios. Earthquake catalogues are the most informative source of information for the inference of earthquake magnitudes. We analysed the earthquake catalogue for Central Asia with respect to the largest expected magnitudes m(T) in a pre-defined time horizon T-f using a recently developed statistical methodology, extended by the explicit probabilistic consideration of magnitude errors. For this aim, we assumed broad error distributions for historical events, whereas the magnitudes of recently recorded instrumental earthquakes had smaller errors. The results indicate high probabilities for the occurrence of large events (M >= 8), even in short time intervals of a few decades. The expected magnitudes relative to the assumed maximum possible magnitude are generally higher for intermediate-depth earthquakes (51-300 km) than for shallow events (0-50 km). For long future time horizons, for example, a few hundred years, earthquakes with M >= 8.5 have to be taken into account, although, apart from the 1889 Chilik earthquake, it is probable that no such event occurred during the observation period of the catalogue.
The increasing development of antibiotic resistance in bacteria has been a major problem for years, both in human and veterinary medicine. Prophylactic measures, such as the use of vaccines, are of great importance in reducing the use of antibiotics in livestock. These vaccines are mainly produced based on formaldehyde inactivation. However, the latter damages the recognition elements of the bacterial proteins and thus could reduce the immune response in the animal. An alternative inactivation method developed in this work is based on gentle photodynamic inactivation using carbon nanodots (CNDs) at excitation wavelengths λex > 290 nm. The photodynamic inactivation was characterized on the nonvirulent laboratory strain Escherichia coli K12 using synthesized CNDs. For a gentle inactivation, the CNDs must be absorbed into the cytoplasm of the E. coli cell. Thus, the inactivation through photoinduced formation of reactive oxygen species only takes place inside the bacterium, which means that the outer membrane is neither damaged nor altered. The loading of the CNDs into E. coli was examined using fluorescence microscopy. Complete loading of the bacterial cells could be achieved in less than 10 min. These studies revealed a reversible uptake process allowing the recovery and reuse of the CNDs after irradiation and before the administration of the vaccine. The success of photodynamic inactivation was verified by viability assays on agar. In a homemade flow photoreactor, the fastest successful irradiation of the bacteria could be carried out in 34 s. Therefore, the photodynamic inactivation based on CNDs is very effective. The membrane integrity of the bacteria after irradiation was verified by slide agglutination and atomic force microscopy. The method developed for the laboratory strain E. coli K12 could then be successfully applied to the important avian pathogens Bordetella avium and Ornithobacterium rhinotracheale to aid the development of novel vaccines.
The combination of high-performance liquid chromatography and electrospray ionization ion mobility spectrometry facilitates the two-dimensional separation of complex mixtures in the retention and drift time plane. The ion mobility spectrometer presented here was optimized for flow rates customarily used in high-performance liquid chromatography between 100 and 1500 mu L/min. The characterization of the system with respect to such parameters as the peak capacity of each time dimension and of the 2D spectrum was carried out based on a separation of a pesticide mixture containing 24 substances. While the total ion current chromatogram is coarsely resolved, exhibiting coelutions for a number of compounds, all substances can be separately detected in the 2D plane due to the orthogonality of the separations in retention and drift dimensions. Another major advantage of the ion mobility detector is the identification of substances based on their characteristic mobilities. Electrospray ionization allows the detection of substances lacking a chromophore. As an example, the separation of a mixture of 18 amino acids is presented. A software built upon the free mass spectrometry package OpenMS was developed for processing the extensive 2D data. The different processing steps are implemented as separate modules which can be arranged in a graphic workflow facilitating automated processing of data.