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Active and passive source data from two seismic experiments within the interdisciplinary project TIPTEQ (from The Incoming Plate to mega Thrust EarthQuake processes) were used to image and identify the structural and petrophysical properties (such as P- and S-velocities, Poisson's ratios, pore pressure, density and amount of fluids) within the Chilean seismogenic coupling zone at 38.25°S, where in 1960 the largest earthquake ever recorded (Mw 9.5) occurred. Two S-wave velocity models calculated using traveltime and noise tomography techniques were merged with an existing velocity model to obtain a 2D S-wave velocity model, which gathered the advantages of each individual model. In a following step, P- and S-reflectivity images of the subduction zone were obtained using different pre stack and post-stack depth migration techniques. Among them, the recent prestack line-drawing depth migration scheme yielded revealing results. Next, synthetic seismograms modelled using the reflectivity method allowed, through their input 1D synthetic P- and S-velocities, to infer the composition and rocks within the subduction zone. Finally, an image of the subduction zone is given, jointly interpreting the results from this work with results from other studies. The Chilean seismogenic coupling zone at 38.25°S shows a continental crust with highly reflective horizontal, as well as (steep) dipping events. Among them, the Lanalhue Fault Zone (LFZ), which is interpreted to be east-dipping, is imaged to very shallow depths. Some steep reflectors are observed for the first time, for example one near the coast, related to high seismicity and another one near the LFZ. Steep shallow reflectivity towards the volcanic arc could be related to a steep west-dipping reflector interpreted as fluids and/or melts, migrating upwards due to material recycling in the continental mantle wedge. The high resolution of the S-velocity model in the first kilometres allowed to identify several sedimentary basins, characterized by very low P- and S-velocities, high Poisson's ratios and possible steep reflectivity. Such high Poisson's ratios are also observed within the oceanic crust, which reaches the seismogenic zone hydrated due to bending-related faulting. It is interpreted to release water until reaching the coast and under the continental mantle wedge. In terms of seismic velocities, the inferred composition and rocks in the continental crust is in agreement with field geology observations at the surface along the proflle. Furthermore, there is no requirement to call on the existence of measurable amounts of present-day fluids above the plate interface in the continental crust of the Coastal Cordillera and the Central Valley in this part of the Chilean convergent margin. A large-scale anisotropy in the continental crust and upper mantle, previously proposed from magnetotelluric studies, is proposed from seismic velocities. However, quantitative studies on this topic in the continental crust of the Chilean seismogenic zone at 38.25°S do not exist to date.
Amorphous calcium carbonate(ACC) is a wide spread biological material found in many organisms, such as sea Urchins and mollusks, where it serves as either a precursor phase for the crystalline biominerals or is stabilized and used in the amorphous state. As ACC readily crystallizes, stabilizers such as anions, cations or macromolecules are often present to avoid or delay unwanted crystallization. Furthermore, additives often control the properties of the materials to suit the specific function needed for the organism. E.g. cystoliths in leaves that scatter light to optimize energy uptake from the sun or calcite/aragonite crystals used in protective shells in mussels and gastropods. Lifetime of the amorphous phase is controlled by the kinetic stability against crystallization. This has often been linked to water which plays a role in the mobility of ions and hence the probability of forming crystalline nuclei to initiate crystallization. However, it is unclear how the water molecules are incorporated within the amorphous phase, either as liquid confined in pores, as structural water binding to the ions or as a mixture of both. It is also unclear how this is perturbed when additives are added, especially Mg2+, one the most common additives found in biogenic samples. Mg2+ are expected to have a strong influence on the water incorporated into ACC, given the high energy barrier to dehydration of magnesium ions compared to calcium ions in solution.
During the last 10-15 years, there has been a large effort to understand the local environment of the ions/molecules and how this affects the properties of the amorphous phase. But only a few aspects of the structure have so far been well-described in literature. The reason for this is partly caused by the low stability of ACC if exposed to air, where it tends to crystallize within minutes and by the limited quantities of ACC produced in traditional synthesis routes. A further obstacle has been the difficulty in modeling the local structure based on experimental data. To solve the problem of stability and sample size, a few studies have used stabilizers such as Mg2+ or OH- and severely dehydrated samples so as to stabilize the amorphous state, allowing for combined neutron and x-ray analysis to be performed. However, so far, a clear description of the local environments of water present in the structure has not been reported.
In this study we show that ACC can be synthesized without any stabilizing additives in quantities necessary for neutron measurements and that accurate models can be derived with the help of empirical-potential structural refinement. These analyses have shown that there is a wide range of local environments for all of the components in the system suggesting that the amorphous phase is highly inhomogeneous, without any phase separation between ions and water. We also showed that the water in ACC is mainly structural and that there is no confined or liquid-like water present in the system. Analysis of amorphous magnesium carbonate also showed that there is a large difference in the local structure of the two cations and that Mg2+ surprisingly interacts with significantly less water molecules then Ca2+ despite the higher dehydration energy. All in all, this shows that the role of water molecules as a structural component of ACC, with a strong binding to cat- and anions probably retard or prevents the crystallization of the amorphous phase.
The interaction between surfaces displaying end-grafted hydrophilic polymer brushes plays important roles in biology and in many wet-technological applications. The outer surfaces of Gram-negative bacteria, for example, are composed of lipopolysaccharide (LPS) molecules exposing oligo- and polysaccharides to the aqueous environment. This unique, structurally complex biological interface is of great scientific interest as it mediates the interaction of bacteria with neighboring bacteria in colonies and biofilms. The interaction between polymer-decorated surfaces is generally coupled to the distance-dependent conformation of the polymer chains. Therefore, structural insight into the interacting surfaces is a prerequisite to understand the interaction characteristics as well as the underlying physical mechanisms. This problem has been addressed by theory, but accurate experimental data on polymer conformations under confinement are rare, because obtaining perturbation-free structural insight into buried soft interfaces is inherently difficult.
In this thesis, lipid membrane surfaces decorated with hydrophilic polymers of technological and biological relevance are investigated under controlled interaction conditions, i.e., at defined surface separations. For this purpose, dedicated sample architectures and experimental tools are developed. Via ellipsometry and neutron reflectometry pressure-distance curves and distance-dependent polymer conformations in terms of brush compression and reciprocative interpenetration are determined. Additional element-specific structural insight into the end-point distribution of interacting brushes is obtained by standing-wave x-ray fluorescence (SWXF).
The methodology is first established for poly[ethylene glycol] (PEG) brushes of defined length and grafting density. For this system, neutron reflectometry revealed pronounced brush interpenetration, which is not captured in common brush theories and therefore motivates rigorous simulation-based treatments. In the second step the same approach is applied to realistic mimics of the outer surfaces of Gram-negative bacteria: monolayers of wild type LPSs extracted from E. Coli O55:B5 displaying strain-specific O-side chains. The neutron reflectometry experiments yield unprecedented structural insight into bacterial interactions, which are of great relevance for the properties of biofilms.
Die Frage nach dem Zusammenhalt einer ganzen Gesellschaft ist eine der zentralen Fragen der Sozialwissenschaften und Soziologie. Seit dem Übergang in die Moderne bildet das Problem des Zusammenhalts von sich differenzierenden Gesellschaften den Gegenstand des wissenschaftlichen und gesellschaftlichen Diskurses. In der vorliegenden Studie stellt soziale Integration eine Form der gelungenen Vergesellschaftung dar, die sich in der Reproduktion von symbolischen und nicht-symbolischen Ressourcen artikuliert. Das Resultat dieser Reproduktion sind pluralistische Vergesellschaftungen, die, bezogen auf politische Präferenzen, konfligierende Interessen verursachen. Diese Präferenzen kommen in unterschiedlichen Formen, in ihrer Intensität und Wahrnehmung der politischen Partizipation zum Ausdruck. Da moderne politische Herrschaft aufgrund der rechtlichen und institutionellen Ausstattung einen bedeutsamen Einfluss auf soziale Reproduktion ausüben kann (z.B. durch Sozialpolitik), stellt direkte Beeinflussung politischer Entscheidungen, als Artikulation von sich aus den Konfliktlinien etablierenden, unterschiedlichen Präferenzen, das einzige legitime Mittel zwecks Umverteilung von Ressourcen auf der Ebene des Politischen dar. Somit wird die Konnotation zwischen Integration und politischer Partizipation sichtbar. In die Gesellschaft gut integrierte Mitglieder sind aufgrund einer breiten Teilnahme an Reproduktionsprozessen in der Lage, eigene Interessen zu erkennen und durch politische Aktivitäten zum Ausdruck zu bringen. Die empirischen Befunde scheinen den Eindruck zu vermitteln, dass der demokratische Konflikt in der modernen Gesellschaft nicht mehr direkt von Klassenzugehörigkeit und Klasseninteressen geprägt wird, sondern durch den Zugang zu und die Verfügbarkeit von symbolischen und nicht-symbolischen Ressourcen geformt wird. In der Konsequenz lautet die Fragestellung der vorliegenden Arbeit, ob integrierte Gesellschaften politisch aktiver sind.
Die Fragestellung der Arbeit wird mithilfe von Aggregatdaten demokratisch-verfasster politischer Systemen untersucht, die als etablierte Demokratien gelten und unterschiedlich Breite wohlfahrtstaatlichen Maßnahmen aufweisen. Die empirische Überprüfung der Hypothesen erfolgte mithilfe von bivariaten und multivariaten Regressionsanalysen. Die überprüften Hypothesen lassen sich folgend in einer Hypothese zusammenfassen: Je stärker die soziale Integration einer Gesellschaft, desto größer ist die konventionelle bzw. unkonventionelle politische Partizipation. Verallgemeinert ist die Aussage zulässig, dass soziale Integration einer Gesellschaft positive Effekte auf die Häufigkeit politischer Partizipation innerhalb dieser Gesellschaft hat. Stärker integrierte Gesellschaften sind politisch aktiver und dies unabhängig von der Form (konventionelle oder unkonventionelle) politischer Beteiligung. Dabei ist der direkte Effekt der gesamtgesellschaftlichen Integration auf die konventionellen Formen stärker als auf unkonventionellen. Diese Aussage ist nur zulässig, wenn die Elemente des Wahlsystems, wie z.B. Verhältniswahlrecht, und das BIP nicht berücksichtigt werden. Auf der Grundlage der Ergebnisse mit Kontrollvariablen erlauben die Daten die auf die Makroebene bezogene Aussage, dass neben einem hohen Niveau sozialer Integration auch ein durch (Mit-)Beteiligung bestimmtes Wahlsystem und ein hoher wirtschaftlicher Entwicklungsgrad begünstigend für ein hohes Niveau politischer Partizipation sind.
The solar activity and its consequences affect space weather and Earth’s climate. The solar activity exhibits a cyclic behaviour with a period of about 11 years. The solar cycle properties are governed by the dynamo taking place in the interior of the Sun, and they are distinctive. Extending the knowledge about solar cycle properties into the past is essential for understanding the solar dynamo and forecasting space weather. It can be acquired through the analysis of historical sunspot drawings. Sunspots are the dark areas, which are associated with strong magnetic fields, on the solar surface. Sunspots are the oldest and longest available observed features of solar activity.
One of the longest available records of sunspot drawings is the collection by Samuel Heinrich Schwabe during 1825–1867. The sunspot sizes measured from digitized Schwabe drawings are not to scale and need to be converted into physical sunspot areas. We employed a statistical approach assuming that the area distribution of sunspots was the same in the 19th century as it was in the 20th century. Umbral areas for about 130 000 sunspots observed by Schwabe were obtained. The annually averaged sunspot areas correlate reasonably well with the sunspot number. Tilt angles and polarity separations of sunspot groups were calculated assuming them to be bipolar. There is, of course, no polarity information in the observations. We derived an average tilt angle by attempting to exclude unipolar groups with a minimum separation of the two surmised polarities and an outlier rejection method, which follows the evolution of each group and detects the moment, when it turns unipolar as it decays. As a result, the tilt angles, although displaying considerable natural scatter, are on average 5.85° ± 0.25°, with the leading
polarity located closer to the equator, in good agreement with tilt angles obtained from 20th century data sets. Sources of uncertainties in the tilt angle determination are discussed and need to be addressed whenever different data sets are combined.
Digital images of observations printed in the books Rosa Ursina and Prodromus pro sole mobili by Christoph Scheiner, as well as the drawings from Scheiner’s letters to Marcus Welser, are analyzed to obtain information on the positions and sizes of sunspots that appeared before the Maunder minimum. In most cases, the given orientation of the ecliptic is used to set up the heliographic coordinate system for the drawings. Positions and sizes are measured manually displaying the drawings on a computer screen. Very early drawings have no indication of the solar orientation. A rotational matching using common spots of adjacent days is used in some cases, while in other cases, the assumption that images were aligned with a zenith–horizon coordinate system appeared to be the most likely. In total, 8167 sunspots were measured. A distribution of sunspot latitudes versus time (butterfly diagram) is obtained for Scheiner’s observations. The observations of 1611 are very inaccurate, but the drawings of 1612 have at least an indication of the solar orientation, while the remaining part of the spot positions from 1618–1631 have good to very good accuracy. We also computed 697 tilt angles of apparent bipolar sunspot groups, which were observed in the period 1618–1631. We find that the average tilt angle of nearly 4° does not significantly differ from the 20th century values.
The solar cycle properties seem to be related to the tilt angles of sunspot groups, and it is an important parameter in the surface flux transport models. The tilt angles of bipolar sunspot groups from various historical sets of solar drawings including from Schwabe and Scheiner are analyzed. Data by Scheiner, Hevelius, Staudacher, Zucconi, Schwabe, and Spörer deliver a series of average tilt angles spanning a period of 270 years, in addition to previously found values for 20th-century data obtained by other authors. We find that the average tilt angles before the Maunder minimum were not significantly different from modern values. However, the average tilt angles of a period 50 years after the Maunder minimum, namely for cycles 0 and 1, were much lower and near zero. The typical tilt angles before the Maunder minimum suggest that abnormally low tilt angles were not responsible for driving the solar cycle into a grand minimum.
With the Schwabe (1826–1867) and Spörer (1866–1880) sunspot data, the butterfly diagram of sunspot groups extends back till 1826. A recently developed method, which separates the wings of the butterfly diagram based on the long gaps present in sunspot group occurrences at different latitudinal bands, is used to separate the wings of the butterfly diagram. The cycle-to-cycle variation in the start (F), end (L), and highest (H) latitudes of the wings with respect to the strength of the wings are analyzed. On the whole, the wings of the stronger cycles tend to start at higher latitudes and have a greater extent. The time spans of the wings and the time difference between the wings in the northern hemisphere display a quasi-periodicity of 5–6 cycles. The average wing overlap is zero in the southern hemisphere, whereas it is 2–3 months in the north. A marginally significant oscillation of about 10 solar cycles is found in the asymmetry of the L latitudes. This latest, extended database of butterfly wings provides new observational constraints, regarding the spatio-temporal distribution of sunspot occurrences over the solar cycle, to solar dynamo models.
Signals stored in sediment
(2018)
Tectonic and climatic boundary conditions determine the amount and the characteristics (size distribution and composition) of sediment that is generated and exported from mountain regions. On millennial timescales, rivers adjust their morphology such that the incoming sediment (Qs,in) can be transported downstream by the available water discharge (Qw). Changes in climatic and tectonic boundary conditions thus trigger an adjustment of the downstream river morphology. Understanding the sensitivity of river morphology to perturbations in boundary conditions is therefore of major importance, for example, for flood assessments, infrastructure and habitats. Although we have a general understanding of how rivers evolve over longer timescales, the prediction of channel response to changes in boundary conditions on a more local scale and over shorter timescales remains a major challenge. To better predict morphological channel evolution, we need to test (i) how channels respond to perturbations in boundary conditions and (ii) how signals reflecting the persisting conditions are preserved in sediment characteristics. This information can then be applied to reconstruct how local river systems have evolved over time.
In this thesis, I address those questions by combining targeted field data collection in the Quebrada del Toro (Southern Central Andes of NW Argentina) with cosmogenic nuclide analysis and remote sensing data. In particular, I (1) investigate how information on hillslope processes is preserved in the 10Be concentration (geochemical composition) of fluvial sediments and how those signals are altered during downstream transport. I complement the field-based approach with physical experiments in the laboratory, in which I (2) explore how changes in sediment supply (Qs,in) or water discharge (Qw) generate distinct signals in the amount of sediment discharge at the basin outlet (Qs,out). With the same set of experiments, I (3) study the adjustments of alluvial channel morphology to changes in Qw and Qs,in, with a particular focus in fill-terrace formation. I transfer the findings from the experiments to the field to (4) reconstruct the evolution of a several-hundred meter thick fluvial fill-terrace sequence in the Quebrada del Toro. I create a detailed terrace chronology and perform reconstructions of paleo-Qs and Qw from the terrace deposits. In the following paragraphs, I summarize my findings on each of these four topics.
First, I sampled detrital sediment at the outlet of tributaries and along the main stem in the Quebrada del Toro, analyzed their 10Be concentration ([10Be]) and compared the data to a detailed hillslope-process inventory. The often observed non-linear increase in catchment-mean denudation rate (inferred from [10Be] in fluvial sediment) with catchment-median slope, which has commonly been explained by an adjustment in landslide-frequency, coincided with a shift in the main type of hillslope processes. In addition, the [10Be] in fluvial sediments varied with grain-size. I defined the normalized sand-gravel-index (NSGI) as the 10Be-concentration difference between sand and gravel fractions divided by their summed concentrations. The NSGI increased with median catchment slope and coincided with a shift in the prevailing hillslope processes active in the catchments, thus making the NSGI a potential proxy for the evolution of hillslope processes over time from sedimentary deposits. However, the NSGI recorded hillslope-processes less well in regions of reduced hillslope-channel connectivity and, in addition, has the potential to be altered during downstream transport due to lateral sediment input, size-selective sediment transport and abrasion.
Second, my physical experiments revealed that sediment discharge at the basin outlet (Qs,out) varied in response to changes in Qs,in or Qw. While changes in Qw caused a distinct signal in Qs,out during the transient adjustment phase of the channel to new boundary conditions, signals related to changes in Qs,in were buffered during the transient phase and likely only become apparent once the channel is adjusted to the new conditions. The temporal buffering is related to the negative feedback between Qs,in and channel-slope adjustments. In addition, I inferred from this result that signals extracted from the geochemical composition of sediments (e.g., [10Be]) are more likely to represent modern-day conditions during times of aggradation, whereas the signal will be temporally buffered due to mixing with older, remobilized sediment during times of channel incision.
Third, the same set of experiments revealed that river incision, channel-width narrowing and terrace cutting were initiated by either an increase in Qw, a decrease in Qs,in or a drop in base level. The lag-time between the external perturbation and the terrace cutting determined (1) how well terrace surfaces preserved the channel profile prior to perturbation and (2) the degree of reworking of terrace-surface material. Short lag-times and well preserved profiles occurred in cases with a rapid onset of incision. Also, lag-times were synchronous along the entire channel after upstream perturbations (Qw, Qs,in), whereas base-level fall triggered an upstream migrating knickzone, such that lag-times increased with distance upstream. Terraces formed after upstream perturbations (Qw, Qs,in) were always steeper when compared to the active channel in new equilibrium conditions. In the base-level fall experiment, the slope of the terrace-surfaces and the modern channel were similar. Hence, slope comparisons between the terrace surface and the modern channel can give insights into the mechanism of terrace formation.
Fourth, my detailed terrace-formation chronology indicated that cut-and-fill episodes in the Quebrada del Toro followed a ~100-kyr cyclicity, with the oldest terraces ~ 500 kyr old. The terraces were formed due to variability in upstream Qw and Qs. Reconstructions of paleo-Qs over the last 500 kyr, which were restricted to times of sediment deposition, indicated only minor (up to four-fold) variations in paleo-denudation rates. Reconstructions of paleo-Qw were limited to the times around the onset of river incision and revealed enhanced discharge from 10 to 85% compared to today. Such increases in Qw are in agreement with other quantitative paleo-hydrological reconstructions from the Eastern Andes, but have the advantage of dating further back in time.
Deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA) is the carrier of human genetic information and is exposed to environmental influences such as the ultraviolet (UV) fraction of sunlight every day. The photostability of the DNA against UV light is astonishing. Even if the DNA bases have a strong absorption maximum at around 260 nm/4.77 eV, their quantum yield of photoproducts remains very low 1. If the photon energies exceed the ionization energy (IE) of the nucleobases ( ̴ 8-9 eV) 2, the DNA can be severely damaged. Photoexcitation and -ionization reactions occur, which can induce strand breaks in the DNA. The efficiency of the excitation and ionization induced strand breaks in the target DNA sequences are represented by cross sections. If Si as a substrate material is used in the VUV irradiation experiments, secondary electrons with an energy below 3.6 eV are generated from the substrate. This low energy electrons (LEE) are known to induce dissociative electron attachment (DEA) in DNA and with it DNA strand breakage very efficiently. LEEs play an important role in cancer radiation therapy, since they are generated secondarily along the radiation track of ionizing radiation.
In the framework of this thesis, different single stranded DNA sequences were irradiated with 8.44 eV vacuum UV (VUV) light and cross sections for single strand breaks (SSB) were determined. Several sequences were also exposed to secondary LEEs, which additionally contributed to the SSBs. First, the cross sections for SSBs depending on the type of nucleobases were determined. Both types of DNA sequences, mono-nucleobase and mixed sequences showed very similar results upon VUV radiation. The additional influence of secondarily generated LEEs resulted in contrast in a clear trend for the SSB cross sections. In this, the polythymine sequence had the highest cross section for SSBs, which can be explained by strong anionic resonances in this energy range. Furthermore, SSB cross sections were determined as a function of sequence length. This resulted in an increase in the strand breaks to the same extent as the increase in the geometrical cross section. The longest DNA sequence (20 nucleotides) investigated in this series, however, showed smaller cross section values for SSBs, which can be explained by conformational changes in the DNA. Moreover, several DNA sequences that included the radiosensitizers 5-Bromouracil (5BrU) and 8-Bromoadenine (8BrA) were investigated and the corresponding SSB cross sections were determined. It was shown that 5BrU reacts very strongly to VUV radiation leading to high strand break yields, which showed in turn a strong sequence-dependency. 8BrA, on the other hand, showed no sensitization to the applied VUV radiation, since almost no increase in strand breakage yield was observed in comparison to non-modified DNA sequences.
In order to be able to identify the mechanisms of radiation damage by photons, the IEs of certain DNA sequences were further explored using photoionization tandem mass spectrometry. By varying the DNA sequence, both the IEs depending on the type of nucleobase as well as on the DNA strand length could be identified and correlated to the SSB cross sections. The influence of the IE on the photoinduced reaction in the brominated DNA sequences could be excluded.
Scalable data profiling
(2018)
Data profiling is the act of extracting structural metadata from datasets. Structural metadata, such as data dependencies and statistics, can support data management operations, such as data integration and data cleaning. Data management often is the most time-consuming activity in any data-related project. Its support is extremely valuable in our data-driven world, so that more time can be spent on the actual utilization of the data, e. g., building analytical models. In most scenarios, however, structural metadata is not given and must be extracted first. Therefore, efficient data profiling methods are highly desirable.
Data profiling is a computationally expensive problem; in fact, most dependency discovery problems entail search spaces that grow exponentially in the number of attributes. To this end, this thesis introduces novel discovery algorithms for various types of data dependencies – namely inclusion dependencies, conditional inclusion dependencies, partial functional dependencies, and partial unique column combinations – that considerably improve over state-of-the-art algorithms in terms of efficiency and that scale to datasets that cannot be processed by existing algorithms. The key to those improvements are not only algorithmic innovations, such as novel pruning rules or traversal strategies, but also algorithm designs tailored for distributed execution. While distributed data profiling has been mostly neglected by previous works, it is a logical consequence on the face of recent hardware trends and the computational hardness of dependency discovery.
To demonstrate the utility of data profiling for data management, this thesis furthermore presents Metacrate, a database for structural metadata. Its salient features are its flexible data model, the capability to integrate various kinds of structural metadata, and its rich metadata analytics library. We show how to perform a data anamnesis of unknown, complex datasets based on this technology. In particular, we describe in detail how to reconstruct the schemata and assess their quality as part of the data anamnesis.
The data profiling algorithms and Metacrate have been carefully implemented, integrated with the Metanome data profiling tool, and are available as free software. In that way, we intend to allow for easy repeatability of our research results and also provide them for actual usage in real-world data-related projects.
The formation and breaching of natural dammed lakes have formed the landscapes, especially in seismically active high-mountain regions. Dammed lakes pose both, potential water resources, and hazard in case of dam breaching. Central Asia has mostly arid and semi-arid climates. Rock glaciers already store more water than ice-glaciers in some semi-arid regions of the world, but their distribution and advance mechanisms are still under debate in recent research. Their impact on the water availability in Central Asia will likely increase as temperatures rise and glaciers diminish.
This thesis provides insight to the relative age distribution of selected Kyrgyz and Kazakh rock glaciers and their single lobes derived from lichenometric dating. The size of roughly 8000 different lichen specimens was used to approximate an exposure age of the underlying debris surface. We showed that rock-glacier movement differs signifcantly on small scales. This has several implications for climatic inferences from rock glaciers. First, reactivation of their lobes does not necessarily point to climatic changes, or at least at out-of-equilibrium conditions. Second, the elevations of rock-glacier toes can no longer be considered as general indicators of the limit of sporadic mountain permafrost as they have been used traditionally.
In the mountainous and seismically active region of Central Asia, natural dams, besides rock glaciers, also play a key role in controlling water and sediment infux into river valleys. However, rock glaciers advancing into valleys seem to be capable of infuencing the stream network, to dam rivers, or to impound lakes. This influence has not previously been addressed. We quantitatively explored these controls using a new inventory of 1300 Central Asian rock glaciers. Elevation, potential incoming solar radiation, and the size of rock glaciers and their feeder basins played key roles in predicting dam appearance. Bayesian techniques were used to credibly distinguish between lichen sizes on rock glaciers and their lobes, and to find those parameters of a rock-glacier system that are most credibly expressing the potential to build natural dams.
To place these studies in the region's history of natural dams, a combination of dating of former lake levels and outburst flood modelling addresses the history and possible outburst flood hypotheses of the second largest mountain lake of the world, Issyk Kul in Kyrgyzstan. Megafoods from breached earthen or glacial dams were found to be a likely explanation for some of the lake's highly fluctuating water levels. However, our detailed analysis of candidate lake sediments and outburst-flood deposits also showed that more localised dam breaks to the west of Issyk Kul could have left similar geomorphic and sedimentary evidence in this Central Asian mountain landscape. We thus caution against readily invoking megafloods as the main cause of lake-level drops of Issyk Kul. In summary, this thesis addresses some new pathways for studying rock glaciers and natural dams with several practical implications for studies on mountain permafrost and natural hazards.
Natural extreme events are an integral part of nature on planet earth. Usually these events are only considered hazardous to humans, in case they are exposed. In this case, however, natural hazards can have devastating impacts on human societies. Especially hydro-meteorological hazards have a high damage potential in form of e.g. riverine and pluvial floods, winter storms, hurricanes and tornadoes, which can occur all over the globe. Along with an increasingly warm climate also an increase in extreme weather which potentially triggers natural hazards can be expected. Yet, not only changing natural systems, but also changing societal systems contribute to an increasing risk associated with these hazards. These can comprise increasing exposure and possibly also increasing vulnerability to the impacts of natural events. Thus, appropriate risk management is required to adapt all parts of society to existing and upcoming risks at various spatial scales. One essential part of risk management is the risk assessment including the estimation of the economic impacts. However, reliable methods for the estimation of economic impacts due to hydro-meteorological hazards are still missing. Therefore, this thesis deals with the question of how the reliability of hazard damage estimates can be improved, represented and propagated across all spatial scales. This question is investigated using the specific example of economic impacts to companies as a result of riverine floods in Germany.
Flood damage models aim to describe the damage processes during a given flood event. In other words they describe the vulnerability of a specific object to a flood. The models can be based on empirical data sets collected after flood events. In this thesis tree-based models trained with survey data are used for the estimation of direct economic flood impacts on the objects. It is found that these machine learning models, in conjunction with increasing sizes of data sets used to derive the models, outperform state-of-the-art damage models. However, despite the performance improvements induced by using multiple variables and more data points, large prediction errors remain at the object level. The occurrence of the high errors was explained by a further investigation using distributions derived from tree-based models. The investigation showed that direct economic impacts to individual objects cannot be modeled by a normal distribution. Yet, most state-of-the-art approaches assume a normal distribution and take mean values as point estimators. Subsequently, the predictions are unlikely values within the distributions resulting in high errors. At larger spatial scales more objects are considered for the damage estimation. This leads to a better fit of the damage estimates to a normal distribution. Consequently, also the performance of the point estimators get better, although large errors can still occur due to the variance of the normal distribution. It is recommended to use distributions instead of point estimates in order to represent the reliability of damage estimates.
In addition current approaches also mostly ignore the uncertainty associated with the characteristics of the hazard and the exposed objects. For a given flood event e.g. the estimation of the water level at a certain building is prone to uncertainties. Current approaches define exposed objects mostly by the use of land use data sets. These data sets often show inconsistencies, which introduce additional uncertainties. Furthermore, state-of-the-art approaches also imply problems of missing consistency when predicting the damage at different spatial scales. This is due to the use of different types of exposure data sets for model derivation and application. In order to face these issues a novel object-based method was developed in this thesis. The method enables a seamless estimation of hydro-meteorological hazard damage across spatial scales including uncertainty quantification. The application and validation of the method resulted in plausible estimations at all spatial scales without overestimating the uncertainty.
Mainly newly available data sets containing individual buildings make the application of the method possible as they allow for the identification of flood affected objects by overlaying the data sets with water masks. However, the identification of affected objects with two different water masks revealed huge differences in the number of identified objects. Thus, more effort is needed for their identification, since the number of objects affected determines the order of magnitude of the economic flood impacts to a large extent.
In general the method represents the uncertainties associated with the three components of risk namely hazard, exposure and vulnerability, in form of probability distributions. The object-based approach enables a consistent propagation of these uncertainties in space. Aside from the propagation of damage estimates and their uncertainties across spatial scales, a propagation between models estimating direct and indirect economic impacts was demonstrated. This enables the inclusion of uncertainties associated with the direct economic impacts within the estimation of the indirect economic impacts. Consequently, the modeling procedure facilitates the representation of the reliability of estimated total economic impacts. The representation of the estimates' reliability prevents reasoning based on a false certainty, which might be attributed to point estimates. Therefore, the developed approach facilitates a meaningful flood risk management and adaptation planning.
The successful post-event application and the representation of the uncertainties qualifies the method also for the use for future risk assessments. Thus, the developed method enables the representation of the assumptions made for the future risk assessments, which is crucial information for future risk management. This is an important step forward, since the representation of reliability associated with all components of risk is currently lacking in all state-of-the-art methods assessing future risk.
In conclusion, the use of object-based methods giving results in the form of distributions instead of point estimations is recommended. The improvement of the model performance by the means of multi-variable models and additional data points is possible, but small. Uncertainties associated with all components of damage estimation should be included and represented within the results. Furthermore, the findings of the thesis suggest that, at larger scales, the influence of the uncertainty associated with the vulnerability is smaller than those associated with the hazard and exposure. This leads to the conclusion that for an increased reliability of flood damage estimations and risk assessments, the improvement and active inclusion of hazard and exposure, including their uncertainties, is needed in addition to the improvements of the models describing the vulnerability of the objects.