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Flooding is an imminent natural hazard threatening most river deltas, e.g. the Mekong Delta. An appropriate flood management is thus required for a sustainable development of the often densely populated regions. Recently, the traditional event-based hazard control shifted towards a risk management approach in many regions, driven by intensive research leading to new legal regulation on flood management. However, a large-scale flood risk assessment does not exist for the Mekong Delta. Particularly, flood risk to paddy rice cultivation, the most important economic activity in the delta, has not been performed yet. Therefore, the present study was developed to provide the very first insight into delta-scale flood damages and risks to rice cultivation. The flood hazard was quantified by probabilistic flood hazard maps of the whole delta using a bivariate extreme value statistics, synthetic flood hydrographs, and a large-scale hydraulic model. The flood risk to paddy rice was then quantified considering cropping calendars, rice phenology, and harvest times based on a time series of enhanced vegetation index (EVI) derived from MODIS satellite data, and a published rice flood damage function. The proposed concept provided flood risk maps to paddy rice for the Mekong Delta in terms of expected annual damage. The presented concept can be used as a blueprint for regions facing similar problems due to its generic approach. Furthermore, the changes in flood risk to paddy rice caused by changes in land use currently under discussion in the Mekong Delta were estimated. Two land-use scenarios either intensifying or reducing rice cropping were considered, and the changes in risk were presented in spatially explicit flood risk maps. The basic risk maps could serve as guidance for the authorities to develop spatially explicit flood management and mitigation plans for the delta. The land-use change risk maps could further be used for adaptive risk management plans and as a basis for a cost-benefit of the discussed land-use change scenarios. Additionally, the damage and risks maps may support the recently initiated agricultural insurance programme in Vietnam.
While the role of and consequences of being a bystander to face-to-face bullying has received some attention in the literature, to date, little is known about the effects of being a bystander to cyberbullying. It is also unknown how empathy might impact the negative consequences associated with being a bystander of cyberbullying. The present study focused on examining the longitudinal association between bystander of cyberbullying depression, and anxiety, and the moderating role of empathy in the relationship between bystander of cyberbullying and subsequent depression and anxiety. There were 1,090 adolescents (M-age = 12.19; 50% female) from the United States included at Time 1, and they completed questionnaires on empathy, cyberbullying roles (bystander, perpetrator, victim), depression, and anxiety. One year later, at Time 2, 1,067 adolescents (M-age = 13.76; 51% female) completed questionnaires on depression and anxiety. Results revealed a positive association between bystander of cyberbullying and depression and anxiety. Further, empathy moderated the positive relationship between bystander of cyberbullying and depression, but not for anxiety. Implications for intervention and prevention programs are discussed.
Although school climate and self-efficacy have received some attention in the literature, as correlates of students’ willingness to intervene in bullying, to date, very little is known about the potential mediating role of self-efficacy in the relationship between classroom climate and students’ willingness to intervene in bullying. To this end, the present study analyzes whether the relationship between classroom cohesion (as one facet of classroom climate) and students’ willingness to intervene in bullying situations is mediated by self-efficacy in social conflicts. This study is based on a representative stratified random sample of two thousand and seventy-one students (51.3% male), between the ages of twelve and seventeen, from twenty-four schools in Germany. Results showed that between 43% and 48% of students reported that they would not intervene in bullying. A mediation test using the structural equation modeling framework revealed that classroom cohesion and self-efficacy in social conflicts were directly associated with students’ willingness to intervene in bullying situations. Furthermore, classroom cohesion was indirectly associated with higher levels of students’ willingness to intervene in bullying situations, due to self-efficacy in social conflicts. We thus conclude that: (1) It is crucial to increase students’ willingness to intervene in bullying; (2) efforts to increase students’ willingness to intervene in bullying should promote students’ confidence in dealing with social conflicts and interpersonal relationships; and (3) self-efficacy plays an important role in understanding the relationship between classroom cohesion and students’ willingness to intervene in bullying. Recommendations are provided to help increase adolescents’ willingness to intervene in bullying and for future research.
The current study was designed to assess early adolescents’ response evaluation and decision for hypothetical peer victimization vignettes. Participants were 336 (59% girls; X¯¯¯ age = 12.55) seventh and eighth graders from one school in the Midwestern United States. Adolescents read a hypothetical online or offline social situation and answered questions designed to access internal congruence, response evaluation, response efficacy, emotional outcome expectancy, and social outcome expectancy. Girls were more likely to believe that aggressive responses online and offline would lead to positive social and emotional outcome expectancies when compared with boys. Adolescents were more likely to believe that offline and online aggressive responses were legitimate responses to face-to-face victimization, feel that aggressive responses online or offline were easier to execute in response to face-to-face victimization, and that aggressive responses online or offline would lead to positive emotions and better social outcomes.
Hatred directed at members of groups due to their origin, race, gender, religion, or sexual orientation is not new, but it has taken on a new dimension in the online world. To date, very little is known about online hate among adolescents. It is also unknown how online disinhibition might influence the association between being bystanders and being perpetrators of online hate. Thus, the present study focused on examining the associations among being bystanders of online hate, being perpetrators of online hate, and the moderating role of toxic online disinhibition in the relationship between being bystanders and perpetrators of online hate. In total, 1480 students aged between 12 and 17 years old were included in this study. Results revealed positive associations between being online hate bystanders and perpetrators, regardless of whether adolescents had or had not been victims of online hate themselves. The results also showed an association between toxic online disinhibition and online hate perpetration. Further, toxic online disinhibition moderated the relationship between being bystanders of online hate and being perpetrators of online hate. Implications for prevention programs and future research are discussed.
Flood risk is impacted by a range of physical and socio-economic processes. Hence, the quantification of flood risk ideally considers the complete flood risk chain, from atmospheric processes through catchment and river system processes to damage mechanisms in the affected areas. Although it is generally accepted that a multitude of changes along the risk chain can occur and impact flood risk, there is a lack of knowledge of how and to what extent changes in influencing factors propagate through the chain and finally affect flood risk. To fill this gap, we present a comprehensive sensitivity analysis which considers changes in all risk components, i.e. changes in climate, catchment, river system, land use, assets, and vulnerability. The application of this framework to the mesoscale Mulde catchment in Germany shows that flood risk can vary dramatically as a consequence of plausible change scenarios. It further reveals that components that have not received much attention, such as changes in dike systems or in vulnerability, may outweigh changes in often investigated components, such as climate. Although the specific results are conditional on the case study area and the selected assumptions, they emphasize the need for a broader consideration of potential drivers of change in a comprehensive way. Hence, our approach contributes to a better understanding of how the different risk components influence the overall flood risk.
To date, little has been known about teachers’ success in bullying interventions. Thus, the present study analyzes how successfully teachers intervene in real bullying situations, based on an analysis of 1,996 reports by German students aged between 12 and 15 (49.2% female) from 24 schools. Predictors of success included intervention strategy (authoritarian-punitive, supportive-individual, supportive-cooperative intervention), bullying form (physical, verbal, relational, cyber), and the student’s bullying role (bully, victim, bystander) in the particular situation. Multilevel analyses showed that supportive-cooperative intervention strategies were the most successful in dealing with bullying in both the short and long term. In the long term, students evaluated teachers as being more successful in dealing with cyberbullying compared with physical bullying. Compared with students who observed bullying, students who perpetrated it were less likely to report that teachers’ interventions were successful in the short term. Implications for bullying intervention, preservice teacher-training, and future research are discussed.
This study analyzes the influence of local and regional climatic factors on the stable isotopic composition of rainfall in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta (VMD) as part of the Asian monsoon region. It is based on 1.5 years of weekly rainfall samples. In the first step, the isotopic composition of the samples is analyzed by local meteoric water lines (LMWLs) and single-factor linear correlations. Additionally, the contribution of several regional and local factors is quantified by multiple linear regression (MLR) of all possible factor combinations and by relative importance analysis. This approach is novel for the interpretation of isotopic records and enables an objective quantification of the explained variance in isotopic records for individual factors. In this study, the local factors are extracted from local climate records, while the regional factors are derived from atmospheric backward trajectories of water particles. The regional factors, i.e., precipitation, temperature, relative humidity and the length of backward trajectories, are combined with equivalent local climatic parameters to explain the response variables delta O-18, delta H-2, and d-excess of precipitation at the station of measurement. The results indicate that (i) MLR can better explain the isotopic variation in precipitation (R-2 = 0.8) compared to single-factor linear regression (R-2 = 0.3); (ii) the isotopic variation in precipitation is controlled dominantly by regional moisture regimes (similar to 70 %) compared to local climatic conditions (similar to 30 %); (iii) the most important climatic parameter during the rainy season is the precipitation amount along the trajectories of air mass movement; (iv) the influence of local precipitation amount and temperature is not sig-nificant during the rainy season, unlike the regional precipitation amount effect; (v) secondary fractionation processes (e.g., sub-cloud evaporation) can be identified through the d-excess and take place mainly in the dry season, either locally for delta O-18 and delta H-2, or along the air mass trajectories for d-excess. The analysis shows that regional and local factors vary in importance over the seasons and that the source regions and transport pathways, and particularly the climatic conditions along the pathways, have a large influence on the isotopic composition of rainfall. Although the general results have been reported qualitatively in previous studies (proving the validity of the approach), the proposed method provides quantitative estimates of the controlling factors, both for the whole data set and for distinct seasons. Therefore, it is argued that the approach constitutes an advancement in the statistical analysis of isotopic records in rainfall that can supplement or precede more complex studies utilizing atmospheric models. Due to its relative simplicity, the method can be easily transferred to other regions, or extended with other factors. The results illustrate that the interpretation of the isotopic composition of precipitation as a recorder of local climatic conditions, as for example performed for paleorecords of water isotopes, may not be adequate in the southern part of the Indochinese Peninsula, and likely neither in other regions affected by monsoon processes. However, the presented approach could open a pathway towards better and seasonally differentiated reconstruction of paleoclimates based on isotopic records.
For attributing hydrological changes to anthropogenic climate change, catchment models are driven by climate model output. A widespread approach to bridge the spatial gap between global climate and hydrological catchment models is to use a weather generator conditioned on weather patterns (WPs). This approach assumes that changes in local climate are characterized by between-type changes of patterns. In this study we test this assumption by analyzing a previously developed WP classification for the Rhine basin, which is based on dynamic and thermodynamic variables. We quantify changes in pattern characteristics and associated climatic properties. The amount of between- and within-type changes is investigated by comparing observed trends to trends resulting solely from WP occurrence. To overcome uncertainties in trend detection resulting from the selected time period, all possible periods in 1901-2010 with a minimum length of 31 years are analyzed. Increasing frequency is found for some patterns associated with high precipitation, although the trend sign highly depends on the considered period. Trends and interannual variations of WP frequencies are related to the long-term variability of large-scale circulation modes. Long-term WP internal warming is evident for summer patterns and enhanced warming for spring/autumn patterns since the 1970s. Observed trends in temperature and partly in precipitation are mainly associated with frequency changes of specific WPs, but some amount of within-type changes remains. The classification can be used for downscaling of past changes considering this limitation, but the inclusion of thermodynamic variables into the classification impedes the downscaling of future climate projections.
Today's adolescents grow up using information and communication technologies as an integral part of their everyday life. This affords them with extensive opportunities, but also exposes them to online risks, such as cybergrooming and cyberbullying victimization. The aims of this study were to investigate correlates of cybergrooming and cyberbullying victimization and examine whether victims of both cybergrooming and cyberbullying (dual-cybervictims) show higher involvement in compulsive Internet use (CIU) and troubled offline behavior (TOB) compared to victims of either cybergrooming or cyberbullying (mono-cybervictims). The sample consisted of 2,042 Dutch, German, Thai, and U.S. adolescents (age = 11–17 years; M = 14.2; SD = 1.4). About every ninth adolescent (10.9 percent) reported either mono- or dual-cybervictimization. Second, both CIU and TOB were associated with all three types of cybervictimization, and finally, both CIU and TOB were more strongly linked to dual-cybervictimization than to both forms of mono-cybervictimization. These findings contribute to a better understanding of the associations between different forms of cybervictimization and psychological health and behavior problems among adolescents.