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The deciduous needle tree larch (Larix Mill.) covers more than 80% of the Asian boreal forests. Only a few Larix species constitute the vast forests and these species differ markedly in their ecological traits, most importantly in their ability to grow on and stabilize underlying permafrost. The pronounced dominance of the summergreen larches makes the Asian boreal forests unique, as the rest of the northern hemisphere boreal forests is almost exclusively dominated by evergreen needle-leaf forests. Global warming is impacting the whole world but is especially pronounced in the arctic and boreal regions. Although adapted to extreme climatic conditions, larch forests are sensitive to varying climatic conditions. By their sheer size, changes in Asian larch forests as range shifts or changes in species composition and the resulting vegetation-climate feedbacks are of global relevance. It is however still uncertain if larch forests will persist under the ongoing warming climate or if they will be replaced by evergreen forests. It is therefore of great importance to understand how these ecosystems will react to future climate warmings and if they will maintain their dominance. One step in the better understanding of larch dynamics is to study how the vast dominant forests developed and why they only established in northern Asia. A second step is to study how the species reacted to past changes in the climate.
The first objective of this thesis was to review and identify factors promoting Asian larch dominance. I achieved this by synthesizing and comparing reported larch occurrences and influencing components on the northern hemisphere continents in the present and in the past. The second objective was to find a possibility to directly study past Larix populations in Siberia and specifically their genetic variation, enabling the study of geographic movements. For this, I established chloroplast enrichment by hybridization capture from sedimentary ancient DNA (sedaDNA) isolated from lake sediment records. The third objective was to use the established method to track past larch populations, their glacial refugia during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) around 21,000 years before present (ka BP), and their post-glacial migration patterns.
To study larch promoting factors, I compared the present state of larch species ranges, areas of dominance, their bioclimatic niches, and the distribution on different extents and thaw depths of permafrost. The species comparison showed that the bioclimatic niches greatly overlap between the American and Asian species and that it is only in the extremely continental climates in which only the Asian larch species can persist. I revealed that the area of dominance is strongly connected to permafrost extent but less linked to permafrost seasonal thaw depths. Comparisons of the paleorecord of larch between the continents suggest differences in the recolonization history. Outside of northern Asia and Alaska, glacial refugial populations of larch were confined to the southern regions and thus recolonization could only occur as migration from south to north. Alaskan larch populations could not establish wide-range dominant forest which could be related to their own genetically depletion as separated refugial population. In Asia, it is still unclear whether or not the northern refugial populations contributed and enhanced the postglacial colonization or whether they were replaced by populations invading from the south in the course of climate warming. Asian larch dominance is thus promoted partly by adaptions to extremely continental climates and by adaptations to grow on continuous permafrost but could be also connected to differences in glacial survival and recolonization history of Larix species.
Except for extremely rare macrofossil findings of fossilized cones, traditional methods to study past vegetation are not able to distinguish between larch species or populations. Within the scope of this thesis, I therefore established a method to retrieve genetic information of past larch populations to distinguish between species. Using the Larix chloroplast genome as target, I successfully applied the method of DNA target enrichment by hybridization capture on sedaDNA samples from lake records and showed that it is able to distinguish between larch species. I then used the method on samples from lake records from across Siberia dating back up to 50 ka BP. The results allowed me to address the question of glacial survival and post-glacial recolonization mode in Siberian larch species. The analyzed pattern showed that LGM refugia were almost exclusively constituted by L. gmelinii, even in sites of current L. sibirica distribution. For included study sites, L. sibirica migrated into its extant northern distribution area only in the Holocene. Consequently, the post-glacial recolonization of L. sibirica was not enhanced by northern glacial refugia. In case of sites in extant distribution area of L. gmelinii, the absence of a genetic turn-over point to a continuous population rather than an invasion of southern refugia. The results suggest that climate has a strong influence on the distribution of Larix species and that species may also respond differently to future climate warming. Because species differ in their ecological characteristics, species distribution is also relevant with respect to further feedbacks between vegetation and climate.
With this thesis, I give an overview of present and past larch occurrences and evaluate which factors promote their dominance. Furthermore, I provide the tools to study past Larix species and give first important insights into the glacial history of Larix populations.
Vegetation change at high latitudes is one of the central issues nowadays with respect to ongoing climate changes and triggered potential feedback. At high latitude ecosystems, the expected changes include boreal treeline advance, compositional, phenological, physiological (plants), biomass (phytomass) and productivity changes. However, the rate and the extent of the changes under climate change are yet poorly understood and projections are necessary for effective adaptive strategies and forehanded minimisation of the possible negative feedbacks.
The vegetation itself and environmental conditions, which are playing a great role in its development and distribution are diverse throughout the Subarctic to the Arctic. Among the least investigated areas is central Chukotka in North-Eastern Siberia, Russia. Chukotka has mountainous terrain and a wide variety of vegetation types on the gradient from treeless tundra to northern taiga forests. The treeline there in contrast to subarctic North America and north-western and central Siberia is represented by a deciduous conifer, Larix cajanderi Mayr. The vegetation varies from prostrate lichen Dryas octopetala L. tundra to open graminoid (hummock and non-hummock) tundra to tall Pinus pumila (Pall.) Regel shrublands to sparse and dense larch forests.
Hence, this thesis presents investigations on recent compositional and above-ground biomass (AGB) changes, as well as potential future changes in AGB in central Chukotka. The aim is to assess how tundra-taiga vegetation develops under changing climate conditions particularly in Fareast Russia, central Chukotka. Therefore, three main research questions were considered:
1) What changes in vegetation composition have recently occurred in central Chukotka?
2) How have the above-ground biomass AGB rates and distribution changed in central Chukotka?
3) What are the spatial dynamics and rates of tree AGB change in the upcoming millennia in the northern tundra-taiga of central Chukotka?
Remote sensing provides information on the spatial and temporal variability of vegetation. I used Landsat satellite data together with field data (foliage projective cover and AGB) from two expeditions in 2016 and 2018 to Chukotka to upscale vegetation types and AGB for the study area. More specifically, I used Landsat spectral indices (Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Normalised Difference Water Index (NDWI) and Normalised Difference Snow Index (NDSI)) and constrained ordination (Redundancy analysis, RDA) for further k-means-based land-cover classification and general additive model (GAM)-based AGB maps for 2000/2001/2002 and 2016/2017. I also used Tandem-X DEM data for a topographical correction of the Landsat satellite data and to derive slope, aspect, and Topographical Wetness Index (TWI) data for forecasting AGB.
Firstly, in 2016, taxa-specific projective cover data were collected during a Russian-German expedition. I processed the field data and coupled them with Landsat spectral Indices in the RDA model that was used for k-means classification. I could establish four meaningful land-cover classes: (1) larch closed-canopy forest, (2) forest tundra and shrub tundra, (3) graminoid tundra and (4) prostrate herb tundra and barren areas, and accordingly, I produced the land cover maps for 2000/2001/2002 and 2016/20017. Changes in land-cover classes between the beginning of the century (2000/2001/2002) and the present time (2016/2017) were estimated and interpreted as recent compositional changes in central Chukotka. The transition from graminoid tundra to forest tundra and shrub tundra was interpreted as shrubification and amounts to a 20% area increase in the tundra-taiga zone and 40% area increase in the northern taiga. Major contributors of shrubification are alder, dwarf birch and some species of the heather family. Land-cover change from the forest tundra and shrub tundra class to the larch closed-canopy forest class is interpreted as tree infilling and is notable in the northern taiga. We find almost no land-cover changes in the present treeless tundra.
Secondly, total AGB state and change were investigated for the same areas. In addition to the total vegetation AGB, I provided estimations for the different taxa present at the field sites. As an outcome, AGB in the study region of central Chukotka ranged from 0 kg m-2 at barren areas to 16 kg m-2 in closed-canopy forests with the larch trees contributing the highest. A comparison of changes in AGB within the investigated period from 2000 to 2016 shows that the greatest changes (up to 1.25 kg m 2 yr 1) occurred in the northern taiga and in areas where land cover changed to larch closed-canopy forest. Our estimations indicate a general increase in total AGB throughout the investigated tundra-taiga and northern taiga, whereas the tundra showed no evidence of change in AGB within the 15 years from 2002 to 2017.
In the third manuscript, potential future AGB changes were estimated based on the results of simulations of the individual-based spatially explicit vegetation model LAVESI using different climate scenarios, depending on Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 with or without cooling after 2300 CE. LAVESI-based AGB was simulated for the current state until 3000 CE for the northern tundra-taiga study area for larch species because we expect the most notable changes to occur will be associated with forest expansion in the treeline ecotone. The spatial distribution and current state of tree AGB was validated against AGB field data, AGB extracted from Landsat satellite data and a high spatial resolution image with distinctive trees visible. The simulation results are indicating differences in tree AGB dynamics plot wise, depending on the distance to the current treeline. The simulated tree AGB dynamics are in concordance with fundamental ecological (emigrational and successional) processes: tree stand formation in simulated results starts with seed dispersion, tree stand establishment, tree stand densification and episodic thinning. Our results suggest mostly densification of existing tree stands in the study region within the current century in the study region and a lagged forest expansion (up to 39% of total area in the RCP 8.5) under all considered climate scenarios without cooling in different local areas depending on the closeness to the current treeline. In scenarios with cooling air temperature after 2300 CE, forests stopped expanding at 2300 CE (up to 10%, RCP 8.5) and then gradually retreated to their pre-21st century position. The average tree AGB rates of increase are the strongest in the first 300 years of the 21st century. The rates depend on the RCP scenario, where the highest are as expected under RCP 8.5.
Overall, this interdisciplinary thesis shows a successful integration of field data, satellite data and modelling for tracking recent and predicting future vegetation changes in mountainous subarctic regions. The obtained results are unique for the focus area in central Chukotka and overall, for mountainous high latitude ecosystems.