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Large-scale transitions in societies are associated with both individual behavioural change and restructuring of the social network. These two factors have often been considered independently, yet recent advances in social network research challenge this view. Here we show that common features of societal marginalization and clustering emerge naturally during transitions in a co-evolutionary adaptive network model. This is achieved by explicitly considering the interplay between individual interaction and a dynamic network structure in behavioural selection. We exemplify this mechanism by simulating how smoking behaviour and the network structure get reconfigured by changing social norms. Our results are consistent with empirical findings: The prevalence of smoking was reduced, remaining smokers were preferentially connected among each other and formed increasingly marginalized clusters. We propose that self-amplifying feedbacks between individual behaviour and dynamic restructuring of the network are main drivers of the transition. This generative mechanism for co-evolution of individual behaviour and social network structure may apply to a wide range of examples beyond smoking.
Using Causal Effect Networks to Analyze Different Arctic Drivers of Midlatitude Winter Circulation
(2016)
In recent years, the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes have suffered from severe winters like the extreme 2012/13 winter in the eastern United States. These cold spells were linked to a meandering upper-tropospheric jet stream pattern and a negative Arctic Oscillation index (AO). However, the nature of the drivers behind these circulation patterns remains controversial. Various studies have proposed different mechanisms related to changes in the Arctic, most of them related to a reduction in sea ice concentrations or increasing Eurasian snow cover. Here, a novel type of time series analysis, called causal effect networks (CEN), based on graphical models is introduced to assess causal relationships and their time delays between different processes. The effect of different Arctic actors on winter circulation on weekly to monthly time scales is studied, and robust network patterns are found. Barents and Kara sea ice concentrations are detected to be important external drivers of the midlatitude circulation, influencing winter AO via tropospheric mechanisms and through processes involving the stratosphere. Eurasia snow cover is also detected to have a causal effect on sea level pressure in Asia, but its exact role on AO remains unclear. The CEN approach presented in this study overcomes some difficulties in interpreting correlation analyses, complements model experiments for testing hypotheses involving teleconnections, and can be used to assess their validity. The findings confirm that sea ice concentrations in autumn in the Barents and Kara Seas are an important driver of winter circulation in the midlatitudes.
Event coincidence analysis for quantifying statistical interrelationships between event time series
(2016)
Studying event time series is a powerful approach for analyzing the dynamics of complex dynamical systems in many fields of science. In this paper, we describe the method of event coincidence analysis to provide a framework for quantifying the strength, directionality and time lag of statistical interrelationships between event series. Event coincidence analysis allows to formulate and test null hypotheses on the origin of the observed interrelationships including tests based on Poisson processes or, more generally, stochastic point processes with a prescribed inter-event time distribution and other higher-order properties. Applying the framework to country-level observational data yields evidence that flood events have acted as triggers of epidemic outbreaks globally since the 1950s. Facing projected future changes in the statistics of climatic extreme events, statistical techniques such as event coincidence analysis will be relevant for investigating the impacts of anthropogenic climate change on human societies and ecosystems worldwide.
On 16 September 2015, the M-W = 8.2 Illapel megathrust earthquake ruptured the Central Chilean margin. Combining inversions of displacement measurements and seismic waveforms with high frequency (HF) teleseismic backprojection, we derive a comprehensive description of the rupture, which also predicts deep ocean tsunami wave heights. We further determine moment tensors and obtain accurate depth estimates for the aftershock sequence. The earthquake nucleated near the coast but then propagated to the north and updip, attaining a peak slip of 5-6 m. In contrast, HF seismic radiation is mostly emitted downdip of the region of intense slip and arrests earlier than the long period rupture, indicating smooth slip along the shallow plate interface in the final phase. A superficially similar earthquake in 1943 with a similar aftershock zone had a much shorter source time function, which matches the duration of HF seismic radiation in the recent event, indicating that the 1943 event lacked the shallow slip.
Metal nanoparticle mediated space charge and its optical control in an organic hole-only device
(2016)
We reveal the role of localized space charges in hole-only devices based on an organic semiconductor with embedded metal nanoparticles (MNPs). MNPs act as deep traps for holes and reduce the current density compared to a device without MNPs by a factor of 10(4) due to the build-up of localized space charge. Dynamic MNPs charged neutrality can be realized during operation by electron transfer from excitons created in the organic matrix, enabling light sensing independent of device bias. In contrast to the previous speculations, electrical bistability in such devices was not observed. (C) 2016 AIP Publishing LLC.
In this paper two new methods for the design of fault-tolerant pipelined sequential and combinational circuits, called Error Detection and Partial Error Correction (EDPEC) and Full Error Detection and Correction (FEDC), are described. The proposed methods are based on an Error Detection Logic (EDC) in the combinational circuit part combined with fault tolerant memory elements implemented using fault tolerant master-slave flip-flops. If a transient error, due to a transient fault in the combinational circuit part is detected by the EDC, the error signal controls the latching stage of the flip-flops such that the previous correct state of the register stage is retained until the transient error disappears. The system can continue to work in its previous correct state and no additional recovery procedure (with typically reduced clock frequency) is necessary. The target applications are dataflow processing blocks, for which software-based recovery methods cannot be easily applied. The presented architectures address both single events as well as timing faults of arbitrarily long duration. An example of this architecture is developed and described, based on the carry look-ahead adder. The timing conditions are carefully investigated and simulated up to the layout level. The enhancement of the baseline architecture is demonstrated with respect to the achieved fault tolerance for the single event and timing faults. It is observed that the number of uncorrected single events is reduced by the EDPEC architecture by 2.36 times compared with previous solution. The FEDC architecture further reduces the number of uncorrected events to zero and outperforms the Triple Modular Redundancy (TMR) with respect to correction of timing faults. The power overhead of both new architectures is about 26-28% lower than the TMR. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Die Rezeption des Propheten Jona im Koran setzt dessen biblischen Narrativ im Wesentlichen voraus und deutet diesen vor allem dort aus, wo man um eine Korrektur seines Prophetenbildes bemüht ist. Im Fokus stehen dabei die Buße, Umkehr und Erlösung Yūnus’ und seines Volkes. Nachkoranische Prophetenerzählungen (qisas alanbiyā’) füllen die narrativen Leerstellen der ‚Jona-Suren‘ wiederum mit erklärendem Erzählmaterial auf und schöpfen dafür auch aus dem umfangreichen Fundus biblischer und rabbinischer Traditionen, die sie sich im äußeren Rahmen der koranischen Yūnus Überlieferung schöpferisch zu eigen machen. So entstehen Erzählkompositionen, die sich als dialogische Auseinandersetzung mit religiösen Themen von gemeinsamer Relevanz lesen lassen. Der Artikel reflektiert gezielt Entwicklung und Verhältnis der Rezeptionen Jonas im Koran sowie in den Prophetenerzählungen von Ibn-Muhammad at-Ta‛labī und Muhammad ibn ‛Abd Allāh al-Kisā’i, in stetiger Auseinandersetzung mit der jüdischen Jona-Tradition.