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Thematic role assignment and word order preferences in the child language acquisition of Tagalog
(2018)
A critical task in daily communications is identifying who did what to whom in an utterance, or assigning the thematic roles agent and patient in a sentence. This dissertation is concerned with Tagalog-speaking children’s use of word order and morphosyntactic markers for thematic role assignment. It aims to explain children’s difficulties in interpreting sentences with a non-canonical order of arguments (i.e., patient-before-agent) by testing the predictions of the following accounts: the frequency account (Demuth, 1989), the Competition model (MacWhinney & Bates, 1989), and the incremental processing account (Trueswell & Gleitman, 2004). Moreover, the experiments in this dissertation test the influence of a word order strategy in a language like Tagalog, where the thematic roles are always unambiguous in a sentence, due to its verb-initial order and its voice-marking system. In Tagalog’s voice-marking system, the inflection on the verb indicates the thematic role of the noun marked by 'ang.' First, the possible basis for a word order strategy in Tagalog was established using a sentence completion experiment given to adults and 5- and 7-year-old children (Chapter 2) and a child-directed speech corpus analysis (Chapter 3). In general, adults and children showed an agent-before-patient preference, although adults’ preference was also affected by sentence voice. Children’s comprehension was then examined through a self-paced listening and picture verification task (Chapter 3) and an eye-tracking and picture selection task (Chapter 4), where word order (agent-initial or patient-initial) and voice (agent voice or patient voice) were manipulated. Offline (i.e., accuracy) and online (i.e., listening times, looks to the target) measures revealed that 5- and 7-year-old Tagalog-speaking children had a bias to interpret the first noun as the agent. Additionally, the use of word order and morphosyntactic markers was found to be modulated by voice. In the agent voice, children relied more on a word order strategy; while in the patient voice, they relied on the morphosyntactic markers. These results are only partially explained by the accounts being tested in this dissertation. Instead, the findings support computational accounts of incremental word prediction and learning such as Chang, Dell, & Bock’s (2006) model.
In the here presented work we discuss a series of results that are all in one way or another connected to the phenomenon of trapping in black hole spacetimes.
First we present a comprehensive review of the Kerr-Newman-Taub-NUT-de-Sitter family of black hole spacetimes and their most important properties. From there we go into a detailed analysis of the bahaviour of null geodesics in the exterior region of a sub-extremal Kerr spacetime. We show that most well known fundamental properties of null geodesics can be represented in one plot. In particular, one can see immediately that the ergoregion and trapping are separated in phase space.
We then consider the sets of future/past trapped null geodesics in the exterior region of a sub-extremal Kerr-Newman-Taub-NUT spacetime. We show that from the point of view of any timelike observer outside of such a black hole, trapping can be understood as two smooth sets of spacelike directions on the celestial sphere of the observer. Therefore the topological structure of the trapped set on the celestial sphere of any observer is identical to that in Schwarzschild.
We discuss how this is relevant to the black hole stability problem.
In a further development of these observations we introduce the notion of what it means for the shadow of two observers to be degenerate. We show that, away from the axis of symmetry, no continuous degeneration exists between the shadows of observers at any point in the exterior region of any Kerr-Newman black hole spacetime of unit mass. Therefore, except possibly for discrete changes, an observer can, by measuring the black holes shadow, determine the angular momentum and the charge of the black hole under observation, as well as the observer's radial position and angle of elevation above the equatorial plane. Furthermore, his/her relative velocity compared to a standard observer can also be measured. On the other hand, the black hole shadow does not allow for a full parameter resolution in the case of a Kerr-Newman-Taub-NUT black hole, as a continuous degeneration relating specific angular momentum, electric charge, NUT charge and elevation angle exists in this case.
We then use the celestial sphere to show that trapping is a generic feature of any black hole spacetime.
In the last chapter we then prove a generalization of the mode stability result of Whiting (1989) for the Teukolsky equation for the case of real frequencies. The main result of the last chapter states that a separated solution of the Teukolsky equation governing massless test fields on the Kerr spacetime, which is purely outgoing at infinity, and purely ingoing at the horizon, must vanish. This has the consequence, that for real frequencies, there are linearly independent fundamental solutions of the radial Teukolsky equation which are purely ingoing at the horizon, and purely outgoing at infinity, respectively. This fact yields a representation formula for solutions of the inhomogenous Teukolsky equation, and was recently used by Shlapentokh-Rothman (2015) for the scalar wave equation.
This thesis investigates the comprehension of the passive voice in three distinct populations. First, the comprehension of passives by adult German speakers was studied, followed by an examination of how German-speaking children comprehend the structure. Finally, bilingual Mandarin-English speakers were tested on their comprehension of the passive voice in English, which is their L2. An integral part of testing the comprehension in all three populations is the use of structural priming. In each of the three distinct parts of the research, structural priming was used for a specific reason. In the study involving adult German speakers, productive and receptive structural priming was directly compared. The goal was to see the effect the two priming modalities have on language comprehension. In the study on German-acquiring children, structural priming was an important tool in answering the question regarding the delayed acquisition of the passive voice. Finally, in the study on the bilingual population, cross-linguistic priming was used to investigate the importance of word order in the priming effect, since Mandarin and English have different word orders in passive voice sentences.
Von einer Säkularisierung in einem Land wie Israel zu sprechen, wo die Religion offensichtlich einen wichtigen Teil des öffentlichen Lebens darstellt, scheint widersprüchlich zu sein. Doch Israel befindet sich bedingt durch Globalisierung, Pluralisierung und Modernisierung an einem Scheideweg. Teile der israelischen Gesellschaft säkularisieren sich bereits. Die religiöse orthodoxe Vorherrschaft scheint zu bröckeln. Kann jedoch deswegen von einem Mentalitätswandel oder einer Säkularisierung des Staates gesprochen werden? Kann ein Säkularisierungsprozess in Israel erfolgreich sein? Wie muss ein säkularer Staat beschaffen sein, um den unterschiedlichen religiösen Denominationen die gleichen Möglichkeiten zu bieten? Welche Rolle spielen dabei die jüdische Diaspora, Einwanderungen und gesellschaftliche Minderheiten? Ziel der vorliegenden Arbeit ist es diese Fragen zu erörtern. Auch wenn die enge Verknüpfung von Nation und Religion im Judentum eine Säkularisierung scheinbar unmöglich macht, so erlaubt unter Bezugnahme der Konzepte von Säkularismus und Nationalismus im Kontext der historischen Entwicklungen des Judentums eine differenziertere Betrachtung dieser Verknüpfung. Durch die Nutzung von unterschiedlichen qualitativen Methoden, wie der hermeneutischen Methode zur Betrachtung der verschiedenen theoretischen Begriffe und der Analyse des Verhältnisses von Nation und Religion im Judentum; der Nutzung von Zeitungsartikel zur Aufarbeitung der aktuellen Debatten in der israelischen Gesellschaft; der Auswertung von Statistiken; sowie der Durchführung von Experteninterviews erlauben einen vielseitigen Zugang zum Forschungsgegenstand. Letztendlich soll aufgezeigt werden, dass sich Israel zwar zunehmend säkularisiert, aber vor verschiedenen Herausforderungen, wie dem gesellschaftlichen Pluralismus, der instabilen Sicherheitslage, sowie einem zunehmenden religiösen Nationalismus steht.
Synthesis, assembly and thermo-responsivity of polymer-functionalized magnetic cobalt nanoparticles
(2018)
This thesis mainly covers the synthesis, surface modification, magnetic-field-induced assembly and thermo-responsive functionalization of superparamagnetic Co NPs initially stabilized by hydrophobic small molecules oleic acid (OA) and trioctylphosphine oxide (TOPO), as well as the synthesis of both superparamagnetic and ferromagnetic Co NPs by using end-functionalized-polystyrene as stabilizer.
Co NPs, due to their excellent magnetic and catalytic properties, have great potential application in various fields, such as ferrofluids, catalysis, and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). Superparamagnetic Co NPs are especially interesting, since they exhibit zero coercivity. They get magnetized in an external magnetic field and reach their saturation magnetization rapidly, but no magnetic moment remains after removal of the applied magnetic field. Therefore, they do not agglomerate in the body when they are used in biomedical applications. Normally, decomposition of metallic precursors at high temperature is one of the most important methods in preparation of monodisperse magnetic NPs, providing tunability in size and shape. Hydrophobic ligands like OA, TOPO and oleylamine are often used to both control the growth of NPs and protect them from agglomeration. The as-prepared magnetic NPs can be used in biological applications as long as they are transferred into water. Moreover, their supercrystal assemblies have the potential for high density data storage and electronic devices. In addition to small molecules, polymers can also be used as surfactants for the synthesis of ferromagnetic and superparamagnetic NPs by changing the reaction conditions. Therefore, chapter 2 gives an overview on the basic concept of synthesis, surface modification and self-assembly of magnetic nanoparticles. Various examples were used to illustrate the recent work.
The hydrophobic Co NPs synthesized with small molecules as surfactants limit their biological applications, which require a hydrophilic or aqueous environment. Surface modification (e.g., ligand exchange) is a general idea for either phase transition or surface-functionalization. Therefore, in chapter 3, a ligand exchange process was conducted to functionalize the surface of Co NPs. PNIPAM is one of the most popular smart polymers and its lower critical solution temperature (LCST) is around 32 °C, with a reversible change in the conformation structure between hydrophobic and hydrophilic. The novel nanocomposites of superparamagnetic Co NPs and thermo-responsive PNIPAM are of great interest. Thus, well-defined superparamagnetic Co NPs were firstly synthesized through the thermolysis of cobalt carbonyl by using OA and TOPO as surfactants. A functional ATRP initiator, containing an amine (as anchoring group) and a 2-bromopropionate group (SI-ATRP initiator), was used to replace the original ligands. This process is rapid and facial for efficient surface functionalization and afterwards the Co NPs can be dispersed into polar solvent DMF without aggregation. FT-IR spectroscopy showed that the TOPO was completely replaced, but a small amount of OA remained on the surface. A TGA measurement allowed the calculation of the grafting density of the initiator as around 3.2 initiator/nm2. Then, the surface-initiated ATRP was conducted for the polymerization of NIPAM on the surface of Co NPs and rendered the nanocomposites water-dispersible. A temperature-dependent dynamic light scattering study showed the aggregation behavior of PNIPAM-coated Co NPs upon heating and this process was proven to be reversible. The combination of superparamagnetic and thermo-responsive properties in these hybrid nanoparticles is promising for future applications e.g. in biomedicine.
In chapter 4, the magnetic-field-induced assembly of superparamagnetic cobalt nanoparticles both on solid substrates and at liquid-air interface was investigated. OA- and TOPO-coated Co NPs were synthesized via the thermolysis of cobalt carbonyl and dispersed into either hexane or toluene. The Co NP dispersion was dropped onto substrates (e.g., TEM grid, silicon wafer) and at liquid-air (water-air or ethylene glycol-air) interface. Due to the attractive dipolar interaction, 1-D chains formed in the presence of an external magnetic field. It is known that the concentration and the strength of the magnetic field can affect the assembly behavior of superparamagnetic Co NPs. Therefore, the influence of these two parameters on the morphology of the assemblies was studied. The formed 1-D chains were shorter and flexible at either lower concentration of the Co NP dispersion or lower strength of the external magnetic field due to thermal fluctuation. However, by increasing either the concentration of the NP dispersion or the strength of the applied magnetic field, these chains became longer, thicker and straighter. The reason could be that a high concentration led to a high fraction of short dipolar chains, and their interaction resulted in longer and thicker chains under applied magnetic field. On the other hand, when the magnetic field increased, the induced moments of the magnetic nanoparticles became larger, which dominated over the thermal fluctuation. Thus, the formed short chains connected to each other and grew in length. Thicker chains were also observed through chain-chain interaction. Furthermore, the induced moments of the NPs tended to direct into one direction with increased magnetic field, thus the chains were straighter. In comparison between the assembly on substrates, at water-air interface and at ethylene glycol-air interface, the assembly of Co NPs in hexane dispersion at ethylene glycol-air interface showed the most regular and homogeneous chain structures due to the better spreading of the dispersion on ethylene glycol subphase than on water subphase and substrates. The magnetic-field-induced assembly of superparamagnetic nanoparticles could provide a powerful approach for applications in data storage and electronic devices.
Chapter 5 presented the synthesis of superparamagnetic and ferromagnetic cobalt nanoparticles through a dual-stage thermolysis of cobalt carbonyl (Co2(CO)8) by using polystyrene as surfactant. The amine end-functionalized polystyrene surfactants with different molecular weight were prepared via atom transfer radical polymerization technique. The molecular weight determination of polystyrene was conducted by gel permeation chromatography (GPC) and matrix-assisted laser desorption/ionization time-of-flight (MALDI-ToF) mass spectrometry techniques. The results showed that, when the molecular weight distribution is low (Mw/Mn < 1.2), the measurement by GPC and MALDI-ToF MS provided nearly similar results. For example, the molecular weight of 10600 Da was obtained by MALDI-ToF MS, while GPC gave 10500 g/mol (Mw/Mn = 1.17). However, if the polymer is poly distributed, MALDI-ToF MS cannot provide an accurate value. This was exemplified for a polymer with a molecular weight of 3130 Da measured by MALDI-TOF MS, while GPC showed 2300 g/mol (Mw/Mn = 1.38). The size, size distribution and magnetic properties of the hybrid particles were different by changing either the molecular weight or concentration of the polymer surfactants. The analysis from TEM characterization showed that the size of cobalt nanoparticles stabilized with polystyrene of lower molecular weight (Mn = 2300 g/mol) varied from 12–22 nm, while the size with middle (Mn = 4500 g/mol) and higher molecular weight (Mn = 10500 g/mol) of polystyrene-coated cobalt nanoparticles showed little change. Magnetic measurements exhibited that the small cobalt particles (12 nm) were superparamagnetic, while larger particles (21 nm) were ferromagnetic and assembled into 1-D chains. The grafting density calculated from thermogravimetric analysis showed that a higher grafting density of polystyrene was obtained with lower molecular weight (Mn = 2300 g/mol) than those with higher molecular weight (Mn = 10500 g/mol). Due to the larger steric hindrance, polystyrene with higher molecular weight cannot form a dense shell on the surface of the nanoparticles, which resulted in a lower grafting density. Wide angle X-ray scattering measurements revealed the epsilon cobalt crystalline phases of both superparamagnetic Co NPs coated with polystyrene (Mn = 2300 g/mol) and ferromagnetic Co NPs coated with polystyrene (Mn = 10500 g/mol). Furthermore, a stability study showed that PS-Co NPs prepared with higher polymer concentration and polymer molecular weight exhibited a better stability.
Various ways of preparing enantiomerically pure 2-amino[6]helicene derivatives were explored. Ni(0) mediated cyclotrimerization of enantiopure triynes provided (M)- and (P)-7,8-bis(p-tolyl)hexahelicene-2-amine in >99% ee as well as its benzoderivative in >99% ee. The stereocontrol was found to be inefficient for a 2- aminobenzo[6]helicene congener with an embedded five-membered ring. Helically chiral imidazolium salts bearing one or two helicene moieties have been synthesized and applied in enantioselective [2+2+2] cyclotrimerization catalyzed by an in situ formed Ni(0)-NHC complex. The synthesis of the first helically chiral Pd- and Ru-NHC complexes and their application in enantioselective catalysis was demonstrated. The latter shows promising results in enantioselective olefin metathesis reactions. A mechanistic proposal for asymmetric ring closing metathesis is provided.
Synthesis of artificial building blocks for sortase-mediated ligation and their enzymatic linkage
(2018)
The enzyme Sortase A catalyzes the formation of a peptide bond between the recognition sequence LPXTG and an oligoglycine. While manifold ligations between proteins and various biomolecules, proteins and small synthetic molecules as well as proteins and surfaces have been reported, the aim of this thesis was to investigate the sortase-catalyzed linkage between artificial building blocks. Hence, this could pave the way for the use of sortase A for tasks from a chemical point of view and maybe even materials science.
For the proof of concept, the studied systems were kept as simple as possible at first by choosing easily accessible silica NPs and commercially available polymers. These building blocks were functionalized with peptide motifs for sortase-mediated ligation. Silica nanoparticles were synthesized with diameters of 60 and 200 nm and surface modified with C=C functionalities. Then, peptides bearing a terminal cysteine were covalently linked by means of a thiol-ene reaction. 60 nm SiO2 NPs were functionalized with pentaglycines, while peptides with LPETG motif were linked to 200 nm silica particles. Polyethyleneglycol (PEG) and poly(N isopropylacrylamide) (PNIPAM) were likewise functionalized with peptides by thiol-ene reaction between cysteine residues and C=C units in the polymer end groups. Hence, G5-PEG and PNIPAM-LPETG conjugates were obtained. With this set of building blocks, NP–polymer hybrids, NP–NP, and polymer–polymer structures were generated by sortase-mediated ligation and the product formation shown by transmission electron microscopy, MALDI-ToF mass spectrometry and dynamic light scatting, among others. Thus, the linkage of these artificial building blocks by the enzyme sortase A could be demonstrated.
However, when using commercially available polymers, the purification of the polymer–peptide conjugates was impossible and resulted in a mixture containing unmodified polymer. Therefore, strategies were developed for the own synthesis of pure peptide-polymer and polymer-peptide conjugates as building blocks for sortase-mediated ligation. The designed routes are based on preparing polymer blocks via RAFT polymerization from CTAs that are attached to N- or C-terminus, respectively, of a peptide. GG-PNIPAM was synthesized through attachment of a suitable RAFT CTA to Fmoc-GG in an esterification reaction, followed by polymerization of NIPAM and cleavage of the Fmoc protection group. Furthermore, several peptides were synthesized by solid-phase peptide synthesis. The linkage of a RAFT CTA (or
polymerization initiator) to the N-terminus of a peptide can be conducted in an automated fashion as last step in a peptide synthesizer. The synthesis of such a conjugate couldn’t be realized in the time frame of this thesis, but many promising strategies exist to continue this strategy using different coupling reagents. Such polymer building blocks can be used to synthesize protein-polymer conjugates catalyzed by sortase A and the approach can be carried on to the synthesis of block copolymers by using polymer blocks with peptide motifs on both ends.
Although the proof of concept demonstrated in this thesis only shows examples that can be also synthesized by exclusively chemical techniques, a toolbox of such building blocks will enable the future formation of new materials and pave the way for the application of enzymes in materials science. In addition to nanoparticle systems and block copolymers, this also includes combination with protein-based building blocks to form hybrid materials. Hence, sortase could become an enzymatic tool that complements established chemical linking technologies and provides specific peptide motifs that are orthogonal to all existing chemical functional groups.
In the present work, we use symbolic regression for automated modeling of dynamical systems. Symbolic regression is a powerful and general method suitable for data-driven identification of mathematical expressions. In particular, the structure and parameters of those expressions are identified simultaneously.
We consider two main variants of symbolic regression: sparse regression-based and genetic programming-based symbolic regression. Both are applied to identification, prediction and control of dynamical systems.
We introduce a new methodology for the data-driven identification of nonlinear dynamics for systems undergoing abrupt changes. Building on a sparse regression algorithm derived earlier, the model after the change is defined as a minimum update with respect to a reference model of the system identified prior to the change. The technique is successfully exemplified on the chaotic Lorenz system and the van der Pol oscillator. Issues such as computational complexity, robustness against noise and requirements with respect to data volume are investigated.
We show how symbolic regression can be used for time series prediction. Again, issues such as robustness against noise and convergence rate are investigated us- ing the harmonic oscillator as a toy problem. In combination with embedding, we demonstrate the prediction of a propagating front in coupled FitzHugh-Nagumo oscillators. Additionally, we show how we can enhance numerical weather predictions to commercially forecast power production of green energy power plants.
We employ symbolic regression for synchronization control in coupled van der Pol oscillators. Different coupling topologies are investigated. We address issues such as plausibility and stability of the control laws found. The toolkit has been made open source and is used in turbulence control applications.
Genetic programming based symbolic regression is very versatile and can be adapted to many optimization problems. The heuristic-based algorithm allows for cost efficient optimization of complex tasks.
We emphasize the ability of symbolic regression to yield white-box models. In contrast to black-box models, such models are accessible and interpretable which allows the usage of established tool chains.
The utilization of lignin as renewable electrode material for electrochemical energy storage is a sustainable approach for future batteries and supercapacitors. The composite electrode was fabricated from Kraft lignin and conductive carbon and the charge storage contribution was determined in terms of electrical double layer (EDL) and redox reactions. The important factors at play for achieving high faradaic charge storage capacity contribute to high surface area, accessibility of redox sites in lignin and their interaction with conductive additives. A thinner layer of lignin covering the high surface area of carbon facilitates the electron transfer process with a shorter pathway from the active sites of nonconductive lignin to the current collector leading to the improvement of faradaic charge storage capacity.
Composite electrodes from lignin and carbon would be even more sustainable if the fluorinated binder can be omitted. A new route to fabricate a binder-free composite electrode from Kraft lignin and high surface area carbon has been proposed by crosslinking lignin with glyoxal. A high molecular weight of lignin is obtained to enhance both electroactivity and binder capability in composite electrodes. The order of the processing step of crosslinking lignin on the composite electrode plays a crucial role in achieving a stable electrode and high charge storage capacity. The crosslinked lignin based electrodes are promising since they allow for more stable, sustainable, halogen-free and environmentally benign devices for energy storage applications. Furthermore, improvement of the amount of redox active groups (quinone groups) in lignin is useful to enhance the capacity in lithium battery applications. Direct oxidative demethylation by cerium ammonium nitrate has been carried out under mild conditions. This proves that an increase of quinone groups is able to enhance the performance of lithium battery. Thus, lignin is a promising material and could be a good candidate for application in sustainable energy storage devices.
Numbers are omnipresent in daily life. They vary in display format and in their meaning so that it does not seem self-evident that our brains process them more or less easily and flexibly. The present thesis addresses mental number representations in general, and specifically the impact of finger counting on mental number representations. Finger postures that result from finger counting experience are one of many ways to convey numerical information. They are, however, probably the one where the numerical content becomes most tangible. By investigating the role of fingers in adults’ mental number representations the four presented studies also tested the Embodied Cognition hypothesis which predicts that bodily experience (e.g., finger counting) during concept acquisition (e.g., number concepts) stays an immanent part of these concepts. The studies focussed on different aspects of finger counting experience. First, consistency and further details of spontaneously used finger configurations were investigated when participants repeatedly produced finger postures according to specific numbers (Study 1). Furthermore, finger counting postures (Study 2), different finger configurations (Study 2 and 4), finger movements (Study 3), and tactile finger perception (Study 4) were investigated regarding their capability to affect number processing. Results indicated that active production of finger counting postures and single finger movements as well as passive perception of tactile stimulation of specific fingers co-activated associated number knowledge and facilitated responses towards corresponding magnitudes and number symbols. Overall, finger counting experience was reflected in specific effects in mental number processing of adult participants. This indicates that finger counting experience is an immanent part of mental number representations.
Findings are discussed in the light of a novel model. The MASC (Model of Analogue and Symbolic Codes) combines and extends two established models of number and magnitude processing. Especially a symbolic motor code is introduced as an essential part of the model. It comprises canonical finger postures (i.e., postures that are habitually used to represent numbers) and finger-number associations. The present findings indicate that finger counting functions both as a sensorimotor magnitude and as a symbolic representational format and that it thereby directly mediates between physical and symbolic size. The implications are relevant both for basic research regarding mental number representations and for pedagogic practices regarding the effectiveness of finger counting as a means to acquire a fundamental grasp of numbers.
Active and passive source data from two seismic experiments within the interdisciplinary project TIPTEQ (from The Incoming Plate to mega Thrust EarthQuake processes) were used to image and identify the structural and petrophysical properties (such as P- and S-velocities, Poisson's ratios, pore pressure, density and amount of fluids) within the Chilean seismogenic coupling zone at 38.25°S, where in 1960 the largest earthquake ever recorded (Mw 9.5) occurred. Two S-wave velocity models calculated using traveltime and noise tomography techniques were merged with an existing velocity model to obtain a 2D S-wave velocity model, which gathered the advantages of each individual model. In a following step, P- and S-reflectivity images of the subduction zone were obtained using different pre stack and post-stack depth migration techniques. Among them, the recent prestack line-drawing depth migration scheme yielded revealing results. Next, synthetic seismograms modelled using the reflectivity method allowed, through their input 1D synthetic P- and S-velocities, to infer the composition and rocks within the subduction zone. Finally, an image of the subduction zone is given, jointly interpreting the results from this work with results from other studies. The Chilean seismogenic coupling zone at 38.25°S shows a continental crust with highly reflective horizontal, as well as (steep) dipping events. Among them, the Lanalhue Fault Zone (LFZ), which is interpreted to be east-dipping, is imaged to very shallow depths. Some steep reflectors are observed for the first time, for example one near the coast, related to high seismicity and another one near the LFZ. Steep shallow reflectivity towards the volcanic arc could be related to a steep west-dipping reflector interpreted as fluids and/or melts, migrating upwards due to material recycling in the continental mantle wedge. The high resolution of the S-velocity model in the first kilometres allowed to identify several sedimentary basins, characterized by very low P- and S-velocities, high Poisson's ratios and possible steep reflectivity. Such high Poisson's ratios are also observed within the oceanic crust, which reaches the seismogenic zone hydrated due to bending-related faulting. It is interpreted to release water until reaching the coast and under the continental mantle wedge. In terms of seismic velocities, the inferred composition and rocks in the continental crust is in agreement with field geology observations at the surface along the proflle. Furthermore, there is no requirement to call on the existence of measurable amounts of present-day fluids above the plate interface in the continental crust of the Coastal Cordillera and the Central Valley in this part of the Chilean convergent margin. A large-scale anisotropy in the continental crust and upper mantle, previously proposed from magnetotelluric studies, is proposed from seismic velocities. However, quantitative studies on this topic in the continental crust of the Chilean seismogenic zone at 38.25°S do not exist to date.
Amorphous calcium carbonate(ACC) is a wide spread biological material found in many organisms, such as sea Urchins and mollusks, where it serves as either a precursor phase for the crystalline biominerals or is stabilized and used in the amorphous state. As ACC readily crystallizes, stabilizers such as anions, cations or macromolecules are often present to avoid or delay unwanted crystallization. Furthermore, additives often control the properties of the materials to suit the specific function needed for the organism. E.g. cystoliths in leaves that scatter light to optimize energy uptake from the sun or calcite/aragonite crystals used in protective shells in mussels and gastropods. Lifetime of the amorphous phase is controlled by the kinetic stability against crystallization. This has often been linked to water which plays a role in the mobility of ions and hence the probability of forming crystalline nuclei to initiate crystallization. However, it is unclear how the water molecules are incorporated within the amorphous phase, either as liquid confined in pores, as structural water binding to the ions or as a mixture of both. It is also unclear how this is perturbed when additives are added, especially Mg2+, one the most common additives found in biogenic samples. Mg2+ are expected to have a strong influence on the water incorporated into ACC, given the high energy barrier to dehydration of magnesium ions compared to calcium ions in solution.
During the last 10-15 years, there has been a large effort to understand the local environment of the ions/molecules and how this affects the properties of the amorphous phase. But only a few aspects of the structure have so far been well-described in literature. The reason for this is partly caused by the low stability of ACC if exposed to air, where it tends to crystallize within minutes and by the limited quantities of ACC produced in traditional synthesis routes. A further obstacle has been the difficulty in modeling the local structure based on experimental data. To solve the problem of stability and sample size, a few studies have used stabilizers such as Mg2+ or OH- and severely dehydrated samples so as to stabilize the amorphous state, allowing for combined neutron and x-ray analysis to be performed. However, so far, a clear description of the local environments of water present in the structure has not been reported.
In this study we show that ACC can be synthesized without any stabilizing additives in quantities necessary for neutron measurements and that accurate models can be derived with the help of empirical-potential structural refinement. These analyses have shown that there is a wide range of local environments for all of the components in the system suggesting that the amorphous phase is highly inhomogeneous, without any phase separation between ions and water. We also showed that the water in ACC is mainly structural and that there is no confined or liquid-like water present in the system. Analysis of amorphous magnesium carbonate also showed that there is a large difference in the local structure of the two cations and that Mg2+ surprisingly interacts with significantly less water molecules then Ca2+ despite the higher dehydration energy. All in all, this shows that the role of water molecules as a structural component of ACC, with a strong binding to cat- and anions probably retard or prevents the crystallization of the amorphous phase.
The interaction between surfaces displaying end-grafted hydrophilic polymer brushes plays important roles in biology and in many wet-technological applications. The outer surfaces of Gram-negative bacteria, for example, are composed of lipopolysaccharide (LPS) molecules exposing oligo- and polysaccharides to the aqueous environment. This unique, structurally complex biological interface is of great scientific interest as it mediates the interaction of bacteria with neighboring bacteria in colonies and biofilms. The interaction between polymer-decorated surfaces is generally coupled to the distance-dependent conformation of the polymer chains. Therefore, structural insight into the interacting surfaces is a prerequisite to understand the interaction characteristics as well as the underlying physical mechanisms. This problem has been addressed by theory, but accurate experimental data on polymer conformations under confinement are rare, because obtaining perturbation-free structural insight into buried soft interfaces is inherently difficult.
In this thesis, lipid membrane surfaces decorated with hydrophilic polymers of technological and biological relevance are investigated under controlled interaction conditions, i.e., at defined surface separations. For this purpose, dedicated sample architectures and experimental tools are developed. Via ellipsometry and neutron reflectometry pressure-distance curves and distance-dependent polymer conformations in terms of brush compression and reciprocative interpenetration are determined. Additional element-specific structural insight into the end-point distribution of interacting brushes is obtained by standing-wave x-ray fluorescence (SWXF).
The methodology is first established for poly[ethylene glycol] (PEG) brushes of defined length and grafting density. For this system, neutron reflectometry revealed pronounced brush interpenetration, which is not captured in common brush theories and therefore motivates rigorous simulation-based treatments. In the second step the same approach is applied to realistic mimics of the outer surfaces of Gram-negative bacteria: monolayers of wild type LPSs extracted from E. Coli O55:B5 displaying strain-specific O-side chains. The neutron reflectometry experiments yield unprecedented structural insight into bacterial interactions, which are of great relevance for the properties of biofilms.
Die Frage nach dem Zusammenhalt einer ganzen Gesellschaft ist eine der zentralen Fragen der Sozialwissenschaften und Soziologie. Seit dem Übergang in die Moderne bildet das Problem des Zusammenhalts von sich differenzierenden Gesellschaften den Gegenstand des wissenschaftlichen und gesellschaftlichen Diskurses. In der vorliegenden Studie stellt soziale Integration eine Form der gelungenen Vergesellschaftung dar, die sich in der Reproduktion von symbolischen und nicht-symbolischen Ressourcen artikuliert. Das Resultat dieser Reproduktion sind pluralistische Vergesellschaftungen, die, bezogen auf politische Präferenzen, konfligierende Interessen verursachen. Diese Präferenzen kommen in unterschiedlichen Formen, in ihrer Intensität und Wahrnehmung der politischen Partizipation zum Ausdruck. Da moderne politische Herrschaft aufgrund der rechtlichen und institutionellen Ausstattung einen bedeutsamen Einfluss auf soziale Reproduktion ausüben kann (z.B. durch Sozialpolitik), stellt direkte Beeinflussung politischer Entscheidungen, als Artikulation von sich aus den Konfliktlinien etablierenden, unterschiedlichen Präferenzen, das einzige legitime Mittel zwecks Umverteilung von Ressourcen auf der Ebene des Politischen dar. Somit wird die Konnotation zwischen Integration und politischer Partizipation sichtbar. In die Gesellschaft gut integrierte Mitglieder sind aufgrund einer breiten Teilnahme an Reproduktionsprozessen in der Lage, eigene Interessen zu erkennen und durch politische Aktivitäten zum Ausdruck zu bringen. Die empirischen Befunde scheinen den Eindruck zu vermitteln, dass der demokratische Konflikt in der modernen Gesellschaft nicht mehr direkt von Klassenzugehörigkeit und Klasseninteressen geprägt wird, sondern durch den Zugang zu und die Verfügbarkeit von symbolischen und nicht-symbolischen Ressourcen geformt wird. In der Konsequenz lautet die Fragestellung der vorliegenden Arbeit, ob integrierte Gesellschaften politisch aktiver sind.
Die Fragestellung der Arbeit wird mithilfe von Aggregatdaten demokratisch-verfasster politischer Systemen untersucht, die als etablierte Demokratien gelten und unterschiedlich Breite wohlfahrtstaatlichen Maßnahmen aufweisen. Die empirische Überprüfung der Hypothesen erfolgte mithilfe von bivariaten und multivariaten Regressionsanalysen. Die überprüften Hypothesen lassen sich folgend in einer Hypothese zusammenfassen: Je stärker die soziale Integration einer Gesellschaft, desto größer ist die konventionelle bzw. unkonventionelle politische Partizipation. Verallgemeinert ist die Aussage zulässig, dass soziale Integration einer Gesellschaft positive Effekte auf die Häufigkeit politischer Partizipation innerhalb dieser Gesellschaft hat. Stärker integrierte Gesellschaften sind politisch aktiver und dies unabhängig von der Form (konventionelle oder unkonventionelle) politischer Beteiligung. Dabei ist der direkte Effekt der gesamtgesellschaftlichen Integration auf die konventionellen Formen stärker als auf unkonventionellen. Diese Aussage ist nur zulässig, wenn die Elemente des Wahlsystems, wie z.B. Verhältniswahlrecht, und das BIP nicht berücksichtigt werden. Auf der Grundlage der Ergebnisse mit Kontrollvariablen erlauben die Daten die auf die Makroebene bezogene Aussage, dass neben einem hohen Niveau sozialer Integration auch ein durch (Mit-)Beteiligung bestimmtes Wahlsystem und ein hoher wirtschaftlicher Entwicklungsgrad begünstigend für ein hohes Niveau politischer Partizipation sind.
The solar activity and its consequences affect space weather and Earth’s climate. The solar activity exhibits a cyclic behaviour with a period of about 11 years. The solar cycle properties are governed by the dynamo taking place in the interior of the Sun, and they are distinctive. Extending the knowledge about solar cycle properties into the past is essential for understanding the solar dynamo and forecasting space weather. It can be acquired through the analysis of historical sunspot drawings. Sunspots are the dark areas, which are associated with strong magnetic fields, on the solar surface. Sunspots are the oldest and longest available observed features of solar activity.
One of the longest available records of sunspot drawings is the collection by Samuel Heinrich Schwabe during 1825–1867. The sunspot sizes measured from digitized Schwabe drawings are not to scale and need to be converted into physical sunspot areas. We employed a statistical approach assuming that the area distribution of sunspots was the same in the 19th century as it was in the 20th century. Umbral areas for about 130 000 sunspots observed by Schwabe were obtained. The annually averaged sunspot areas correlate reasonably well with the sunspot number. Tilt angles and polarity separations of sunspot groups were calculated assuming them to be bipolar. There is, of course, no polarity information in the observations. We derived an average tilt angle by attempting to exclude unipolar groups with a minimum separation of the two surmised polarities and an outlier rejection method, which follows the evolution of each group and detects the moment, when it turns unipolar as it decays. As a result, the tilt angles, although displaying considerable natural scatter, are on average 5.85° ± 0.25°, with the leading
polarity located closer to the equator, in good agreement with tilt angles obtained from 20th century data sets. Sources of uncertainties in the tilt angle determination are discussed and need to be addressed whenever different data sets are combined.
Digital images of observations printed in the books Rosa Ursina and Prodromus pro sole mobili by Christoph Scheiner, as well as the drawings from Scheiner’s letters to Marcus Welser, are analyzed to obtain information on the positions and sizes of sunspots that appeared before the Maunder minimum. In most cases, the given orientation of the ecliptic is used to set up the heliographic coordinate system for the drawings. Positions and sizes are measured manually displaying the drawings on a computer screen. Very early drawings have no indication of the solar orientation. A rotational matching using common spots of adjacent days is used in some cases, while in other cases, the assumption that images were aligned with a zenith–horizon coordinate system appeared to be the most likely. In total, 8167 sunspots were measured. A distribution of sunspot latitudes versus time (butterfly diagram) is obtained for Scheiner’s observations. The observations of 1611 are very inaccurate, but the drawings of 1612 have at least an indication of the solar orientation, while the remaining part of the spot positions from 1618–1631 have good to very good accuracy. We also computed 697 tilt angles of apparent bipolar sunspot groups, which were observed in the period 1618–1631. We find that the average tilt angle of nearly 4° does not significantly differ from the 20th century values.
The solar cycle properties seem to be related to the tilt angles of sunspot groups, and it is an important parameter in the surface flux transport models. The tilt angles of bipolar sunspot groups from various historical sets of solar drawings including from Schwabe and Scheiner are analyzed. Data by Scheiner, Hevelius, Staudacher, Zucconi, Schwabe, and Spörer deliver a series of average tilt angles spanning a period of 270 years, in addition to previously found values for 20th-century data obtained by other authors. We find that the average tilt angles before the Maunder minimum were not significantly different from modern values. However, the average tilt angles of a period 50 years after the Maunder minimum, namely for cycles 0 and 1, were much lower and near zero. The typical tilt angles before the Maunder minimum suggest that abnormally low tilt angles were not responsible for driving the solar cycle into a grand minimum.
With the Schwabe (1826–1867) and Spörer (1866–1880) sunspot data, the butterfly diagram of sunspot groups extends back till 1826. A recently developed method, which separates the wings of the butterfly diagram based on the long gaps present in sunspot group occurrences at different latitudinal bands, is used to separate the wings of the butterfly diagram. The cycle-to-cycle variation in the start (F), end (L), and highest (H) latitudes of the wings with respect to the strength of the wings are analyzed. On the whole, the wings of the stronger cycles tend to start at higher latitudes and have a greater extent. The time spans of the wings and the time difference between the wings in the northern hemisphere display a quasi-periodicity of 5–6 cycles. The average wing overlap is zero in the southern hemisphere, whereas it is 2–3 months in the north. A marginally significant oscillation of about 10 solar cycles is found in the asymmetry of the L latitudes. This latest, extended database of butterfly wings provides new observational constraints, regarding the spatio-temporal distribution of sunspot occurrences over the solar cycle, to solar dynamo models.
Signals stored in sediment
(2018)
Tectonic and climatic boundary conditions determine the amount and the characteristics (size distribution and composition) of sediment that is generated and exported from mountain regions. On millennial timescales, rivers adjust their morphology such that the incoming sediment (Qs,in) can be transported downstream by the available water discharge (Qw). Changes in climatic and tectonic boundary conditions thus trigger an adjustment of the downstream river morphology. Understanding the sensitivity of river morphology to perturbations in boundary conditions is therefore of major importance, for example, for flood assessments, infrastructure and habitats. Although we have a general understanding of how rivers evolve over longer timescales, the prediction of channel response to changes in boundary conditions on a more local scale and over shorter timescales remains a major challenge. To better predict morphological channel evolution, we need to test (i) how channels respond to perturbations in boundary conditions and (ii) how signals reflecting the persisting conditions are preserved in sediment characteristics. This information can then be applied to reconstruct how local river systems have evolved over time.
In this thesis, I address those questions by combining targeted field data collection in the Quebrada del Toro (Southern Central Andes of NW Argentina) with cosmogenic nuclide analysis and remote sensing data. In particular, I (1) investigate how information on hillslope processes is preserved in the 10Be concentration (geochemical composition) of fluvial sediments and how those signals are altered during downstream transport. I complement the field-based approach with physical experiments in the laboratory, in which I (2) explore how changes in sediment supply (Qs,in) or water discharge (Qw) generate distinct signals in the amount of sediment discharge at the basin outlet (Qs,out). With the same set of experiments, I (3) study the adjustments of alluvial channel morphology to changes in Qw and Qs,in, with a particular focus in fill-terrace formation. I transfer the findings from the experiments to the field to (4) reconstruct the evolution of a several-hundred meter thick fluvial fill-terrace sequence in the Quebrada del Toro. I create a detailed terrace chronology and perform reconstructions of paleo-Qs and Qw from the terrace deposits. In the following paragraphs, I summarize my findings on each of these four topics.
First, I sampled detrital sediment at the outlet of tributaries and along the main stem in the Quebrada del Toro, analyzed their 10Be concentration ([10Be]) and compared the data to a detailed hillslope-process inventory. The often observed non-linear increase in catchment-mean denudation rate (inferred from [10Be] in fluvial sediment) with catchment-median slope, which has commonly been explained by an adjustment in landslide-frequency, coincided with a shift in the main type of hillslope processes. In addition, the [10Be] in fluvial sediments varied with grain-size. I defined the normalized sand-gravel-index (NSGI) as the 10Be-concentration difference between sand and gravel fractions divided by their summed concentrations. The NSGI increased with median catchment slope and coincided with a shift in the prevailing hillslope processes active in the catchments, thus making the NSGI a potential proxy for the evolution of hillslope processes over time from sedimentary deposits. However, the NSGI recorded hillslope-processes less well in regions of reduced hillslope-channel connectivity and, in addition, has the potential to be altered during downstream transport due to lateral sediment input, size-selective sediment transport and abrasion.
Second, my physical experiments revealed that sediment discharge at the basin outlet (Qs,out) varied in response to changes in Qs,in or Qw. While changes in Qw caused a distinct signal in Qs,out during the transient adjustment phase of the channel to new boundary conditions, signals related to changes in Qs,in were buffered during the transient phase and likely only become apparent once the channel is adjusted to the new conditions. The temporal buffering is related to the negative feedback between Qs,in and channel-slope adjustments. In addition, I inferred from this result that signals extracted from the geochemical composition of sediments (e.g., [10Be]) are more likely to represent modern-day conditions during times of aggradation, whereas the signal will be temporally buffered due to mixing with older, remobilized sediment during times of channel incision.
Third, the same set of experiments revealed that river incision, channel-width narrowing and terrace cutting were initiated by either an increase in Qw, a decrease in Qs,in or a drop in base level. The lag-time between the external perturbation and the terrace cutting determined (1) how well terrace surfaces preserved the channel profile prior to perturbation and (2) the degree of reworking of terrace-surface material. Short lag-times and well preserved profiles occurred in cases with a rapid onset of incision. Also, lag-times were synchronous along the entire channel after upstream perturbations (Qw, Qs,in), whereas base-level fall triggered an upstream migrating knickzone, such that lag-times increased with distance upstream. Terraces formed after upstream perturbations (Qw, Qs,in) were always steeper when compared to the active channel in new equilibrium conditions. In the base-level fall experiment, the slope of the terrace-surfaces and the modern channel were similar. Hence, slope comparisons between the terrace surface and the modern channel can give insights into the mechanism of terrace formation.
Fourth, my detailed terrace-formation chronology indicated that cut-and-fill episodes in the Quebrada del Toro followed a ~100-kyr cyclicity, with the oldest terraces ~ 500 kyr old. The terraces were formed due to variability in upstream Qw and Qs. Reconstructions of paleo-Qs over the last 500 kyr, which were restricted to times of sediment deposition, indicated only minor (up to four-fold) variations in paleo-denudation rates. Reconstructions of paleo-Qw were limited to the times around the onset of river incision and revealed enhanced discharge from 10 to 85% compared to today. Such increases in Qw are in agreement with other quantitative paleo-hydrological reconstructions from the Eastern Andes, but have the advantage of dating further back in time.
Deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA) is the carrier of human genetic information and is exposed to environmental influences such as the ultraviolet (UV) fraction of sunlight every day. The photostability of the DNA against UV light is astonishing. Even if the DNA bases have a strong absorption maximum at around 260 nm/4.77 eV, their quantum yield of photoproducts remains very low 1. If the photon energies exceed the ionization energy (IE) of the nucleobases ( ̴ 8-9 eV) 2, the DNA can be severely damaged. Photoexcitation and -ionization reactions occur, which can induce strand breaks in the DNA. The efficiency of the excitation and ionization induced strand breaks in the target DNA sequences are represented by cross sections. If Si as a substrate material is used in the VUV irradiation experiments, secondary electrons with an energy below 3.6 eV are generated from the substrate. This low energy electrons (LEE) are known to induce dissociative electron attachment (DEA) in DNA and with it DNA strand breakage very efficiently. LEEs play an important role in cancer radiation therapy, since they are generated secondarily along the radiation track of ionizing radiation.
In the framework of this thesis, different single stranded DNA sequences were irradiated with 8.44 eV vacuum UV (VUV) light and cross sections for single strand breaks (SSB) were determined. Several sequences were also exposed to secondary LEEs, which additionally contributed to the SSBs. First, the cross sections for SSBs depending on the type of nucleobases were determined. Both types of DNA sequences, mono-nucleobase and mixed sequences showed very similar results upon VUV radiation. The additional influence of secondarily generated LEEs resulted in contrast in a clear trend for the SSB cross sections. In this, the polythymine sequence had the highest cross section for SSBs, which can be explained by strong anionic resonances in this energy range. Furthermore, SSB cross sections were determined as a function of sequence length. This resulted in an increase in the strand breaks to the same extent as the increase in the geometrical cross section. The longest DNA sequence (20 nucleotides) investigated in this series, however, showed smaller cross section values for SSBs, which can be explained by conformational changes in the DNA. Moreover, several DNA sequences that included the radiosensitizers 5-Bromouracil (5BrU) and 8-Bromoadenine (8BrA) were investigated and the corresponding SSB cross sections were determined. It was shown that 5BrU reacts very strongly to VUV radiation leading to high strand break yields, which showed in turn a strong sequence-dependency. 8BrA, on the other hand, showed no sensitization to the applied VUV radiation, since almost no increase in strand breakage yield was observed in comparison to non-modified DNA sequences.
In order to be able to identify the mechanisms of radiation damage by photons, the IEs of certain DNA sequences were further explored using photoionization tandem mass spectrometry. By varying the DNA sequence, both the IEs depending on the type of nucleobase as well as on the DNA strand length could be identified and correlated to the SSB cross sections. The influence of the IE on the photoinduced reaction in the brominated DNA sequences could be excluded.
Scalable data profiling
(2018)
Data profiling is the act of extracting structural metadata from datasets. Structural metadata, such as data dependencies and statistics, can support data management operations, such as data integration and data cleaning. Data management often is the most time-consuming activity in any data-related project. Its support is extremely valuable in our data-driven world, so that more time can be spent on the actual utilization of the data, e. g., building analytical models. In most scenarios, however, structural metadata is not given and must be extracted first. Therefore, efficient data profiling methods are highly desirable.
Data profiling is a computationally expensive problem; in fact, most dependency discovery problems entail search spaces that grow exponentially in the number of attributes. To this end, this thesis introduces novel discovery algorithms for various types of data dependencies – namely inclusion dependencies, conditional inclusion dependencies, partial functional dependencies, and partial unique column combinations – that considerably improve over state-of-the-art algorithms in terms of efficiency and that scale to datasets that cannot be processed by existing algorithms. The key to those improvements are not only algorithmic innovations, such as novel pruning rules or traversal strategies, but also algorithm designs tailored for distributed execution. While distributed data profiling has been mostly neglected by previous works, it is a logical consequence on the face of recent hardware trends and the computational hardness of dependency discovery.
To demonstrate the utility of data profiling for data management, this thesis furthermore presents Metacrate, a database for structural metadata. Its salient features are its flexible data model, the capability to integrate various kinds of structural metadata, and its rich metadata analytics library. We show how to perform a data anamnesis of unknown, complex datasets based on this technology. In particular, we describe in detail how to reconstruct the schemata and assess their quality as part of the data anamnesis.
The data profiling algorithms and Metacrate have been carefully implemented, integrated with the Metanome data profiling tool, and are available as free software. In that way, we intend to allow for easy repeatability of our research results and also provide them for actual usage in real-world data-related projects.
The formation and breaching of natural dammed lakes have formed the landscapes, especially in seismically active high-mountain regions. Dammed lakes pose both, potential water resources, and hazard in case of dam breaching. Central Asia has mostly arid and semi-arid climates. Rock glaciers already store more water than ice-glaciers in some semi-arid regions of the world, but their distribution and advance mechanisms are still under debate in recent research. Their impact on the water availability in Central Asia will likely increase as temperatures rise and glaciers diminish.
This thesis provides insight to the relative age distribution of selected Kyrgyz and Kazakh rock glaciers and their single lobes derived from lichenometric dating. The size of roughly 8000 different lichen specimens was used to approximate an exposure age of the underlying debris surface. We showed that rock-glacier movement differs signifcantly on small scales. This has several implications for climatic inferences from rock glaciers. First, reactivation of their lobes does not necessarily point to climatic changes, or at least at out-of-equilibrium conditions. Second, the elevations of rock-glacier toes can no longer be considered as general indicators of the limit of sporadic mountain permafrost as they have been used traditionally.
In the mountainous and seismically active region of Central Asia, natural dams, besides rock glaciers, also play a key role in controlling water and sediment infux into river valleys. However, rock glaciers advancing into valleys seem to be capable of infuencing the stream network, to dam rivers, or to impound lakes. This influence has not previously been addressed. We quantitatively explored these controls using a new inventory of 1300 Central Asian rock glaciers. Elevation, potential incoming solar radiation, and the size of rock glaciers and their feeder basins played key roles in predicting dam appearance. Bayesian techniques were used to credibly distinguish between lichen sizes on rock glaciers and their lobes, and to find those parameters of a rock-glacier system that are most credibly expressing the potential to build natural dams.
To place these studies in the region's history of natural dams, a combination of dating of former lake levels and outburst flood modelling addresses the history and possible outburst flood hypotheses of the second largest mountain lake of the world, Issyk Kul in Kyrgyzstan. Megafoods from breached earthen or glacial dams were found to be a likely explanation for some of the lake's highly fluctuating water levels. However, our detailed analysis of candidate lake sediments and outburst-flood deposits also showed that more localised dam breaks to the west of Issyk Kul could have left similar geomorphic and sedimentary evidence in this Central Asian mountain landscape. We thus caution against readily invoking megafloods as the main cause of lake-level drops of Issyk Kul. In summary, this thesis addresses some new pathways for studying rock glaciers and natural dams with several practical implications for studies on mountain permafrost and natural hazards.
Natural extreme events are an integral part of nature on planet earth. Usually these events are only considered hazardous to humans, in case they are exposed. In this case, however, natural hazards can have devastating impacts on human societies. Especially hydro-meteorological hazards have a high damage potential in form of e.g. riverine and pluvial floods, winter storms, hurricanes and tornadoes, which can occur all over the globe. Along with an increasingly warm climate also an increase in extreme weather which potentially triggers natural hazards can be expected. Yet, not only changing natural systems, but also changing societal systems contribute to an increasing risk associated with these hazards. These can comprise increasing exposure and possibly also increasing vulnerability to the impacts of natural events. Thus, appropriate risk management is required to adapt all parts of society to existing and upcoming risks at various spatial scales. One essential part of risk management is the risk assessment including the estimation of the economic impacts. However, reliable methods for the estimation of economic impacts due to hydro-meteorological hazards are still missing. Therefore, this thesis deals with the question of how the reliability of hazard damage estimates can be improved, represented and propagated across all spatial scales. This question is investigated using the specific example of economic impacts to companies as a result of riverine floods in Germany.
Flood damage models aim to describe the damage processes during a given flood event. In other words they describe the vulnerability of a specific object to a flood. The models can be based on empirical data sets collected after flood events. In this thesis tree-based models trained with survey data are used for the estimation of direct economic flood impacts on the objects. It is found that these machine learning models, in conjunction with increasing sizes of data sets used to derive the models, outperform state-of-the-art damage models. However, despite the performance improvements induced by using multiple variables and more data points, large prediction errors remain at the object level. The occurrence of the high errors was explained by a further investigation using distributions derived from tree-based models. The investigation showed that direct economic impacts to individual objects cannot be modeled by a normal distribution. Yet, most state-of-the-art approaches assume a normal distribution and take mean values as point estimators. Subsequently, the predictions are unlikely values within the distributions resulting in high errors. At larger spatial scales more objects are considered for the damage estimation. This leads to a better fit of the damage estimates to a normal distribution. Consequently, also the performance of the point estimators get better, although large errors can still occur due to the variance of the normal distribution. It is recommended to use distributions instead of point estimates in order to represent the reliability of damage estimates.
In addition current approaches also mostly ignore the uncertainty associated with the characteristics of the hazard and the exposed objects. For a given flood event e.g. the estimation of the water level at a certain building is prone to uncertainties. Current approaches define exposed objects mostly by the use of land use data sets. These data sets often show inconsistencies, which introduce additional uncertainties. Furthermore, state-of-the-art approaches also imply problems of missing consistency when predicting the damage at different spatial scales. This is due to the use of different types of exposure data sets for model derivation and application. In order to face these issues a novel object-based method was developed in this thesis. The method enables a seamless estimation of hydro-meteorological hazard damage across spatial scales including uncertainty quantification. The application and validation of the method resulted in plausible estimations at all spatial scales without overestimating the uncertainty.
Mainly newly available data sets containing individual buildings make the application of the method possible as they allow for the identification of flood affected objects by overlaying the data sets with water masks. However, the identification of affected objects with two different water masks revealed huge differences in the number of identified objects. Thus, more effort is needed for their identification, since the number of objects affected determines the order of magnitude of the economic flood impacts to a large extent.
In general the method represents the uncertainties associated with the three components of risk namely hazard, exposure and vulnerability, in form of probability distributions. The object-based approach enables a consistent propagation of these uncertainties in space. Aside from the propagation of damage estimates and their uncertainties across spatial scales, a propagation between models estimating direct and indirect economic impacts was demonstrated. This enables the inclusion of uncertainties associated with the direct economic impacts within the estimation of the indirect economic impacts. Consequently, the modeling procedure facilitates the representation of the reliability of estimated total economic impacts. The representation of the estimates' reliability prevents reasoning based on a false certainty, which might be attributed to point estimates. Therefore, the developed approach facilitates a meaningful flood risk management and adaptation planning.
The successful post-event application and the representation of the uncertainties qualifies the method also for the use for future risk assessments. Thus, the developed method enables the representation of the assumptions made for the future risk assessments, which is crucial information for future risk management. This is an important step forward, since the representation of reliability associated with all components of risk is currently lacking in all state-of-the-art methods assessing future risk.
In conclusion, the use of object-based methods giving results in the form of distributions instead of point estimations is recommended. The improvement of the model performance by the means of multi-variable models and additional data points is possible, but small. Uncertainties associated with all components of damage estimation should be included and represented within the results. Furthermore, the findings of the thesis suggest that, at larger scales, the influence of the uncertainty associated with the vulnerability is smaller than those associated with the hazard and exposure. This leads to the conclusion that for an increased reliability of flood damage estimations and risk assessments, the improvement and active inclusion of hazard and exposure, including their uncertainties, is needed in addition to the improvements of the models describing the vulnerability of the objects.