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The evolution of life on Earth has been driven by disturbances of different types and magnitudes over the 4.6 million years of Earth’s history (Raup, 1994, Alroy, 2008). One example for such disturbances are mass extinctions which are characterized by an exceptional increase in the extinction rate affecting a great number of taxa in a short interval of geologic time (Sepkoski, 1986). During the 541 million years of the Phanerozoic, life on Earth suffered five exceptionally severe mass extinctions named the “Big Five Extinctions”. Many mass extinctions are linked to changes in climate
(Feulner, 2009). Hence, the study of past mass extinctions is not only intriguing, but can also provide insights into the complex nature of the Earth system. This thesis aims at deepening our understanding of the triggers of mass extinctions and how they affected life. To accomplish this, I investigate changes in climate during two of the Big Five extinctions using a coupled climate model.
During the Devonian (419.2–358.9 million years ago) the first vascular plants and vertebrates evolved on land while extinction events occurred in the ocean (Algeo et al., 1995). The causes of these formative changes, their interactions and their links to changes in climate are still poorly understood. Therefore, we explore the sensitivity of the Devonian climate to various boundary conditions using an intermediate-complexity climate model (Brugger et al., 2019). In contrast to Le Hir et al. (2011), we find only a minor biogeophysical effect of changes in vegetation cover due to unrealistically high soil albedo values used in the earlier study. In addition, our results cannot support the strong influence of orbital parameters on the Devonian climate, as simulated with a climate model with a strongly simplified ocean model (De Vleeschouwer et al., 2013, 2014, 2017). We can only reproduce the changes in Devonian climate suggested by proxy data by decreasing atmospheric CO2. Still, finding agreement between the evolution of sea surface temperatures reconstructed from proxy data (Joachimski et al., 2009) and our simulations remains challenging and suggests a lower δ18O ratio of Devonian seawater. Furthermore, our study of the sensitivity of the Devonian climate reveals a prevailing mode of climate variability on a timescale of decades to centuries. The quasi-periodic ocean temperature fluctuations are linked to a physical mechanism of changing sea-ice cover, ocean convection and overturning in high northern latitudes.
In the second study of this thesis (Dahl et al., under review) a new reconstruction of atmospheric CO2 for the Devonian, which is based on CO2-sensitive carbon isotope fractionation in the earliest vascular plant fossils, suggests a much earlier drop of atmo- spheric CO2 concentration than previously reconstructed, followed by nearly constant CO2 concentrations during the Middle and Late Devonian. Our simulations for the Early Devonian with identical boundary conditions as in our Devonian sensitivity study (Brugger et al., 2019), but with a low atmospheric CO2 concentration of 500 ppm, show no direct conflict with available proxy and paleobotanical data and confirm that under the simulated climatic conditions carbon isotope fractionation represents a robust proxy for atmospheric CO2. To explain the earlier CO2 drop we suggest that early forms of vascular land plants have already strongly influenced weathering. This new perspective on the Devonian questions previous ideas about the climatic conditions and earlier explanations for the Devonian mass extinctions.
The second mass extinction investigated in this thesis is the end-Cretaceous mass extinction (66 million years ago) which differs from the Devonian mass extinctions in terms of the processes involved and the timescale on which the extinctions occurred. In the two studies presented here (Brugger et al., 2017, 2021), we model the climatic effects of the Chicxulub impact, one of the proposed causes of the end-Cretaceous extinction, for the first millennium after the impact. The light-dimming effect of stratospheric sulfate aerosols causes severe cooling, with a decrease of global annual mean surface air temperature of at least 26◦C and a recovery to pre-impact temperatures after more than 30 years. The sudden surface cooling of the ocean induces deep convection which brings nutrients from the deep ocean via upwelling to the surface ocean. Using an ocean biogeochemistry model we explore the combined effect of ocean mixing and iron-rich dust originating from the impactor on the marine biosphere. As soon as light levels have recovered, we find a short, but prominent peak in marine net primary productivity. This newly discovered mechanism could result in toxic effects for marine near-surface ecosystems. Comparison of our model results to proxy data (Vellekoop et al., 2014, 2016, Hull et al., 2020) suggests that carbon release from the terrestrial biosphere is required in addition to the carbon dioxide which can be attributed to the target material. Surface ocean acidification caused by the addition of carbon dioxide and sulfur is only moderate. Taken together, the results indicate a significant contribution of the Chicxulub impact to the end-Cretaceous mass extinction by triggering multiple stressors for the Earth system.
Although the sixth extinction we face today is characterized by human intervention in nature, this thesis shows that we can gain many insights into future extinctions from studying past mass extinctions, such as the importance of the rate of change (Rothman, 2017), the interplay of multiple stressors (Gunderson et al., 2016), and changes in the carbon cycle (Rothman, 2017, Tierney et al., 2020).
With ongoing anthropogenic global warming, some of the most vulnerable components of the Earth system might become unstable and undergo a critical transition. These subsystems are the so-called tipping elements. They are believed to exhibit threshold behaviour and would, if triggered, result in severe consequences for the biosphere and human societies. Furthermore, it has been shown that climate tipping elements are not isolated entities, but interact across the entire Earth system. Therefore, this thesis aims at mapping out the potential for tipping events and feedbacks in the Earth system mainly by the use of complex dynamical systems and network science approaches, but partially also by more detailed process-based models of the Earth system.
In the first part of this thesis, the theoretical foundations are laid by the investigation of networks of interacting tipping elements. For this purpose, the conditions for the emergence of global cascades are analysed against the structure of paradigmatic network types such as Erdös-Rényi, Barabási-Albert, Watts-Strogatz and explicitly spatially embedded networks. Furthermore, micro-scale structures are detected that are decisive for the transition of local to global cascades. These so-called motifs link the micro- to the macro-scale in the network of tipping elements. Alongside a model description paper, all these results are entered into the Python software package PyCascades, which is publicly available on github.
In the second part of this dissertation, the tipping element framework is first applied to components of the Earth system such as the cryosphere and to parts of the biosphere. Afterwards it is applied to a set of interacting climate tipping elements on a global scale. Using the Earth system Model of Intermediate Complexity (EMIC) CLIMBER-2, the temperature feedbacks are quantified, which would arise if some of the large cryosphere elements disintegrate over a long span of time. The cryosphere components that are investigated are the Arctic summer sea ice, the mountain glaciers, the Greenland and the West Antarctic Ice Sheets. The committed temperature increase, in case the ice masses disintegrate, is on the order of an additional half a degree on a global average (0.39-0.46 °C), while local to regional additional temperature increases can exceed 5 °C. This means that, once tipping has begun, additional reinforcing feedbacks are able to increase global warming and with that the risk of further tipping events.
This is also the case in the Amazon rainforest, whose parts are dependent on each other via the so-called moisture-recycling feedback. In this thesis, the importance of drought-induced tipping events in the Amazon rainforest is investigated in detail. Despite the Amazon rainforest is assumed to be adapted to past environmental conditions, it is found that tipping events sharply increase if the drought conditions become too intense in a too short amount of time, outpacing the adaptive capacity of the Amazon rainforest. In these cases, the frequency of tipping cascades also increases to 50% (or above) of all tipping events. In the model that was developed in this study, the southeastern region of the Amazon basin is hit hardest by the simulated drought patterns. This is also the region that already nowadays suffers a lot from extensive human-induced changes due to large-scale deforestation, cattle ranching or infrastructure projects.
Moreover, on the larger Earth system wide scale, a network of conceptualised climate tipping elements is constructed in this dissertation making use of a large literature review, expert knowledge and topological properties of the tipping elements. In global warming scenarios, tipping cascades are detected even under modest scenarios of climate change, limiting global warming to 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. In addition, the structural roles of the climate tipping elements in the network are revealed. While the large ice sheets on Greenland and Antarctica are the initiators of tipping cascades, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) acts as the transmitter of cascades. Furthermore, in our conceptual climate tipping element model, it is found that the ice sheets are of particular importance for the stability of the entire system of investigated climate tipping elements.
In the last part of this thesis, the results from the temperature feedback study with the EMIC CLIMBER-2 are combined with the conceptual model of climate tipping elements. There, it is observed that the likelihood of further tipping events slightly increases due to the temperature feedbacks even if no further CO$_2$ would be added to the atmosphere.
Although the developed network model is of conceptual nature, it is possible with this work for the first time to quantify the risk of tipping events between interacting components of the Earth system under global warming scenarios, by allowing for dynamic temperature feedbacks at the same time.
Today, the Mekong Delta in the southern of Vietnam is home for 18 million people. The delta also accounts for more than half of the country’s food production and 80% of the exported rice. Due to the low elevation, it is highly susceptible to the risk of fluvial and coastal flooding. Although extreme floods often result in excessive damages and economic losses, the annual flood pulse from the Mekong is vital to sustain agricultural cultivation and livelihoods of million delta inhabitants.
Delta-wise risk management and adaptation strategies are required to mitigate the adverse impacts from extreme events while capitalising benefits from floods. However, a proper flood risk management has not been implemented in the VMD, because the quantification of flood damage is often overlooked and the risks are thus not quantified. So far, flood management has been exclusively focused on engineering measures, i.e. high- and low- dyke systems, aiming at flood-free or partial inundation control without any consideration of the actual risks or a cost-benefit analysis. Therefore, an analysis of future delta flood dynamics driven these stressors is valuable to facilitate the transition from sole hazard control towards a risk management approach, which is more cost-effective and also robust against future changes in risk.
Built on these research gaps, this thesis investigates the current state and future projections of flood hazard, damage and risk to rice cultivation, the most important economic activity in the VMD. The study quantifies the changes in risk and hazard brought by the development of delta-based flood control measures in the last decades, and analyses the expected changes in risk driven by the changing climate, rising sea-level and deltaic land subsidence, and finally the development of hydropower projects in the Mekong Basin. For this purpose, flood trend analyses and comprehensive hydraulic modelling were performed, together with the development of a concept to quantify flood damage and risk to rice plantation.
The analysis of observed flood levels revealed strong and robust increasing trends of peak and duration downstream of the high-dyke areas with a step change in 2000/2001, i.e. after the disastrous flood which initiated the high-dyke development. These changes were in contrast to the negative trends detected upstream, suggested that high-dyke development has shifted flood hazard downstream. Findings of the trend’s analysis were later confirmed by hydraulic simulations of the two recent extreme floods in 2000 and 2011, where the hydrological boundaries and dyke system settings were interchanged.
However, the high-dyke system was not the only and often not the main cause for a shift of flood hazard, as a comparative analysis of these two extreme floods proved. The high-dyke development was responsible for 20–90% of the observed changes in flood level between 2000 and 2011, with large spatial variances. The particular flood hydrograph of the two events had the highest contribution in the northern part of the delta, while the tidal level had 2–3 times higher influence than the high-dyke in the lower-central and coastal areas downstream of high-dyke areas. The impact of the high-dyke development was highest in the areas closely downstream of the high-dyke area just south of the Cambodia-Vietnam border. The hydraulic simulations also validated that the concurrence of the flood peak with spring tides, i.e. high sea level along the coast, amplified the flood level and inundation in the central and coastal regions substantially.
The risk assessment quantified the economic losses of rice cultivation to USD 25.0 and 115 million (0.02–0.1% of the total GDP of Vietnam in 2011) corresponding to the 10-year and the 100-year floods, with an expected annual damage of about USD 4.5 million. A particular finding is that the flood damage was highly sensitive to flood timing. Here, a 10-year event with an early peak, i.e. late August-September, could cause as much damage as a 100-year event that peaked in October. This finding underlines the importance of a reliable early flood warning, which could substantially reduce the damage to rice crops and thus the risk.
The developed risk assessment concept was furthermore applied to investigate two high-dyke development alternatives, which are currently under discussion among the administrative bodies in Vietnam, but also in the public. The first option favouring the utilization of the current high-dyke compartments as flood retention areas instead for rice cropping during the flood season could reduce flood hazard and expected losses by 5–40%, depending on the region of the delta. On the contrary, the second option promoting the further extension of the areas protected by high-dyke to facilitate third rice crop planting on a larger area, tripled the current expected annual flood damage. This finding challenges the expected economic benefit of triple rice cultivation, in addition to the already known reducing of nutrient supply by floodplain sedimentation and thus higher costs for fertilizers.
The economic benefits of the high-dyke and triple rice cropping system is further challenged by the changes in the flood dynamics to be expected in future. For the middle of the 21st century (2036-2065) the effective sea-level rise an increase of the inundation extent by 20–27% was projected. This corresponds to an increase of flood damage to rice crops in dry, normal and wet year by USD 26.0, 40.0 and 82.0 million in dry, normal and wet year compared to the baseline period 1971-2000.
Hydraulic simulations indicated that the planned massive development of hydropower dams in the Mekong Basin could potentially compensate the increase in flood hazard and agriculture losses stemming from climate change. However, the benefits of dams as mitigation of flood losses are highly uncertain, because a) the actual development of the dams is highly disputed, b) the operation of the dams is primarily targeted at power generation, not flood control, and c) this would require international agreements and cooperation, which is difficult to achieve in South-East Asia. The theoretical flood mitigation benefit is additionally challenged by a number of negative impacts of the dam development, e.g. disruption of floodplain inundation in normal, non-extreme flood years. Adding to the certain reduction of sediment and nutrient load to the floodplains, hydropower dams will drastically impair rice and agriculture production, the basis livelihoods of million delta inhabitants.
In conclusion, the VMD is expected to face increasing threats of tidal induced floods in the coming decades. Protection of the entire delta coastline solely with “hard” engineering flood protection structures is neither technically nor economically feasible, adaptation and mitigation actions are urgently required. Better control and reduction of groundwater abstraction is thus strongly recommended as an immediate and high priority action to reduce the land subsidence and thus tidal flooding and salinity intrusion in the delta. Hydropower development in the Mekong basin might offer some theoretical flood protection for the Mekong delta, but due to uncertainties in the operation of the dams and a number of negative effects, the dam development cannot be recommended as a strategy for flood management. For the Vietnamese authorities, it is advisable to properly maintain the existing flood protection structures and to develop flexible risk-based flood management plans. In this context the study showed that the high-dyke compartments can be utilized for emergency flood management in extreme events. For this purpose, a reliable flood forecast is essential, and the action plan should be materialised in official documents and legislation to assure commitment and consistency in the implementation and operation.
The Arctic environments constitute rich and dynamic ecosystems, dominated by microorganisms extremely well adapted to survive and function under severe conditions. A range of physiological adaptations allow the microbiota in these habitats to withstand low temperatures, low water and nutrient availability, high levels of UV radiation, etc. In addition, other adaptations of clear competitive nature are directed at not only surviving but thriving in these environments, by disrupting the metabolism of neighboring cells and affecting intermicrobial communication. Since Arctic microbes are bioindicators which amplify climate alterations in the environment, the Arctic region presents the opportunity to study local microbiota and carry out research about interesting, potentially virulent phenotypes that could be dispersed into other habitats around the globe as a consequence of accelerating climate change. In this context, exploration of Arctic habitats as well as descriptions of the microbes inhabiting them are abundant but microbial competitive strategies commonly associated with virulence and pathogens are rarely reported. In this project, environmental samples from the Arctic region were collected and microorganisms (bacteria and fungi) were isolated. The clinical relevance of these microorganisms was assessed by observing the following virulence markers: ability to grow at a range of temperatures, expression of antimicrobial resistance and production of hemolysins. The aim of this project is to determine the frequency and relevance of these characteristics in an effort to understand microbial adaptations in habitats threatened by climate change. The isolates obtained and described here were able to grow at a range of temperatures, in some cases more than 30 °C higher than their original isolation temperature. A considerable number of them consistently expressed compounds capable of lysing sheep and bovine erythrocytes on blood agar at different incubation temperatures. Ethanolic extracts of these bacteria were able to cause rapid and complete lysis of erythrocyte suspensions and might even be hemolytic when assayed on human blood. In silico analyses showed a variety of resistance elements, some of them novel, against natural and synthetic antimicrobial compounds. In vitro experiments against a number of antimicrobial compounds showed resistance phenotypes belonging to wild-type populations and some non-wild type which clearly denote human influence in the acquisition of antimicrobial resistance. The results of this project demonstrate the presence of virulence-associated factors expressed by microorganisms of natural, non-clinical environments. This study contains some of the first reports, to the best of our knowledge, of hemolytic microbes isolated from the Arctic region. In addition, it provides additional information about the presence and expression of intrinsic and acquired antimicrobial resistance in environmental isolates, contributing to the understanding of the evolution of relevant pathogenic species and opportunistic pathogens. Finally, this study highlights some of the potential risks associated with changes in the polar regions (habitat melting and destruction, ecosystem transition and re-colonization) as important indirect consequences of global warming and altered climatic conditions around the planet.
The forcing from the anthropogenic heat flux (AHF), i.e. the dissipation of primary energy consumed by the human civilisation, produces a direct climate warming. Today, the globally averaged AHF is negligibly small compared to the indirect forcing from greenhouse gas emissions. Locally or regionally, though, it has a significant impact. Historical observations show a constant exponential growth of worldwide energy production. A continuation of this trend might be fueled or even amplified by the exploration of new carbon-free energy sources like fusion power. In such a scenario, the impacts of the AHF become a relevant factor for anthropogenic post-greenhouse gas climate change on the global scale, as well.
This master thesis aims at estimating the climate impacts of such a growing AHF forcing. In the first part of this work, the AHF is built into simple and conceptual, zero- and one-dimensional Energy Balance Models (EBMs), providing quick order of magnitude estimations of the temperature impact. In the one-dimensional EBM, the ice-albedo feedback from enhanced ice melting due to the AHF increases the temperature impact significantly compared to the zero-dimensional EBM.
Additionally, the forcing is built into a climate model of intermediate complexity, CLIMBER-3α. This allows for the investigation of the effect of localised AHF and gives further insights into the impact of the AHF on processes like the ocean heat uptake, sea ice and snow pattern changes
and the ocean circulation.
The global mean temperature response from the AHF today is of the order of 0.010 − 0.016 K in all reasonable model configurations tested. A transient tenfold increase of this forcing heats up the Earth System additionally by roughly 0.1 − 0.2 K in the presented models. Further growth
can also affect the tipping probability of certain climate elements.
Most renewable energy sources do not or only partially contribute to the AHF forcing as the energy from these sources dissipates anyway. Hence, the transition to a (carbon-free) renewable energy mix, which, in particular, does not rely on nuclear power, eliminates the local and global climate impacts from the increasing AHF forcing, independent of the growth of energy production.
This dissertation investigates the impact of the economic and fiscal crisis starting in 2008 on EU climate policy-making. While the overall number of adopted greenhouse gas emission reduction policies declined in the crisis aftermath, EU lawmakers decided to introduce new or tighten existing regulations in some important policy domains. Existing knowledge about the crisis impact on EU legislative decision-making cannot explain these inconsistencies. In response, this study develops an actor-centred conceptual framework based on rational choice institutionalism that provides a micro-level link to explain how economic crises translate into altered policy-making patterns. The core theoretical argument draws on redistributive conflicts, arguing that tensions between ‘beneficiaries’ and ‘losers’ of a regulatory initiative intensify during economic crises and spill over to the policy domain. To test this hypothesis and using social network analysis, this study analyses policy processes in three case studies: The introduction of carbon dioxide emission limits for passenger cars, the expansion of the EU Emissions Trading System to aviation, and the introduction of a regulatory framework for biofuels. The key finding is that an economic shock causes EU policy domains to polarise politically, resulting in intensified conflict and more difficult decision-making. The results also show that this process of political polarisation roots in the industry that is the subject of the regulation, and that intergovernmental bargaining among member states becomes more important, but also more difficult in times of crisis.
The Himalayas are a region that is most dependent, but also frequently prone to hazards from changing meltwater resources. This mountain belt hosts the highest mountain peaks on earth, has the largest reserve of ice outside the polar regions, and is home to a rapidly growing population in recent decades. One source of hazard has attracted scientific research in particular in the past two decades: glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) occurred rarely, but mostly with fatal and catastrophic consequences for downstream communities and infrastructure. Such GLOFs can suddenly release several million cubic meters of water from naturally impounded meltwater lakes. Glacial lakes have grown in number and size by ongoing glacial mass losses in the Himalayas. Theory holds that enhanced meltwater production may increase GLOF frequency, but has never been tested so far. The key challenge to test this notion are the high altitudes of >4000 m, at which lakes occur, making field work impractical. Moreover, flood waves can attenuate rapidly in mountain channels downstream, so that many GLOFs have likely gone unnoticed in past decades. Our knowledge on GLOFs is hence likely biased towards larger, destructive cases, which challenges a detailed quantification of their frequency and their response to atmospheric warming. Robustly quantifying the magnitude and frequency of GLOFs is essential for risk assessment and management along mountain rivers, not least to implement their return periods in building design codes.
Motivated by this limited knowledge of GLOF frequency and hazard, I developed an algorithm that efficiently detects GLOFs from satellite images. In essence, this algorithm classifies land cover in 30 years (~1988–2017) of continuously recorded Landsat images over the Himalayas, and calculates likelihoods for rapidly shrinking water bodies in the stack of land cover images. I visually assessed such detected tell-tale sites for sediment fans in the river channel downstream, a second key diagnostic of GLOFs. Rigorous tests and validation with known cases from roughly 10% of the Himalayas suggested that this algorithm is robust against frequent image noise, and hence capable to identify previously unknown GLOFs. Extending the search radius to the entire Himalayan mountain range revealed some 22 newly detected GLOFs. I thus more than doubled the existing GLOF count from 16 previously known cases since 1988, and found a dominant cluster of GLOFs in the Central and Eastern Himalayas (Bhutan and Eastern Nepal), compared to the rarer affected ranges in the North. Yet, the total of 38 GLOFs showed no change in the annual frequency, so that the activity of GLOFs per unit glacial lake area has decreased in the past 30 years. I discussed possible drivers for this finding, but left a further attribution to distinct GLOF-triggering mechanisms open to future research.
This updated GLOF frequency was the key input for assessing GLOF hazard for the entire Himalayan mountain belt and several subregions. I used standard definitions in flood hydrology, describing hazard as the annual exceedance probability of a given flood peak discharge [m3 s-1] or larger at the breach location. I coupled the empirical frequency of GLOFs per region to simulations of physically plausible peak discharges from all existing ~5,000 lakes in the Himalayas. Using an extreme-value model, I could hence calculate flood return periods. I found that the contemporary 100-year GLOF discharge (the flood level that is reached or exceeded on average once in 100 years) is 20,600+2,200/–2,300 m3 s-1 for the entire Himalayas. Given the spatial and temporal distribution of historic GLOFs, contemporary GLOF hazard is highest in the Eastern Himalayas, and lower for regions with rarer GLOF abundance. I also calculated GLOF hazard for some 9,500 overdeepenings, which could expose and fill with water, if all Himalayan glaciers have melted eventually. Assuming that the current GLOF rate remains unchanged, the 100-year GLOF discharge could double (41,700+5,500/–4,700 m3 s-1), while the regional GLOF hazard may increase largest in the Karakoram.
To conclude, these three stages–from GLOF detection, to analysing their frequency and estimating regional GLOF hazard–provide a framework for modern GLOF hazard assessment. Given the rapidly growing population, infrastructure, and hydropower projects in the Himalayas, this thesis assists in quantifying the purely climate-driven contribution to hazard and risk from GLOFs.
A contemporary challenge in Ecology and Evolutionary Biology is to anticipate the fate of populations of organisms in the context of a changing world. Climate change and landscape changes due to anthropic activities have been of major concern in the contemporary history. Organisms facing these threats are expected to respond by local adaptation (i.e., genetic changes or phenotypic plasticity) or by shifting their distributional range (migration). However, there are limits to their responses. For example, isolated populations will have more difficulties in developing adaptive innovations by means of genetic changes than interconnected metapopulations. Similarly, the topography of the environment can limit dispersal opportunities for crawling organisms as compared to those that rely on wind. Thus, populations of species with different life history strategy may differ in their ability to cope with changing environmental conditions. However, depending on the taxon, empirical studies investigating organisms’ responses to environmental change may become too complex, long and expensive; plus, complications arising from dealing with endangered species. In consequence, eco-evolutionary modeling offers an opportunity to overcome these limitations and complement empirical studies, understand the action and limitations of underlying mechanisms, and project into possible future scenarios. In this work I take a modeling approach and investigate the effect and relative importance of evolutionary mechanisms (including phenotypic plasticity) on the ability for local adaptation of populations with different life strategy experiencing climate change scenarios. For this, I performed a review on the state of the art of eco-evolutionary Individual-Based Models (IBMs) and identify gaps for future research. Then, I used the results from the review to develop an eco-evolutionary individual-based modeling tool to study the role of genetic and plastic mechanisms in promoting local adaption of populations of organisms with different life strategies experiencing scenarios of climate change and environmental stochasticity. The environment was simulated through a climate variable (e.g., temperature) defining a phenotypic optimum moving at a given rate of change. The rate of change was changed to simulate different scenarios of climate change (no change, slow, medium, rapid climate change). Several scenarios of stochastic noise color resembling different climatic conditions were explored. Results show that populations of sexual species will rely mainly on standing genetic variation and phenotypic plasticity for local adaptation. Population of species with relatively slow growth rate (e.g., large mammals) – especially those of small size – are the most vulnerable, particularly if their plasticity is limited (i.e., specialist species). In addition, whenever organisms from these populations are capable of adaptive plasticity, they can buffer fitness losses in reddish climatic conditions. Likewise, whenever they can adjust their plastic response (e.g., bed-hedging strategy) they will cope with bluish environmental conditions as well. In contrast, life strategies of high fecundity can rely on non-adaptive plasticity for their local adaptation to novel environmental conditions, unless the rate of change is too rapid. A recommended management measure is to guarantee interconnection of isolated populations into metapopulations, such that the supply of useful genetic variation can be increased, and, at the same time, provide them with movement opportunities to follow their preferred niche, when local adaptation becomes problematic. This is particularly important for bluish and reddish climatic conditions, when the rate of change is slow, or for any climatic condition when the level of stress (rate of change) is relatively high.
The unprecedented increase in atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gases (GHG) by anthropogenic activities since the Industrial Revolution impacts on various earth system processes, commonly referred to as `climate change´ (CC). CC faces aquatic ecosystems with extreme abiotic perturbations that potentially alter the interrelations between functional autotrophic and heterotrophic plankton groups. These relations, however, modulate biogeochemical cycling and mediate the functioning of aquatic ecosystems as C sources or sinks to the atmosphere. The aim of this thesis was therefore to investigate how different aspects of CC influence community composition and functioning of pelagic heterotrophic bacteria. These organisms constitute a major component of biogeochemical cycling and largely determine the balance between autotrophic and heterotrophic processes.
Due to the vast amount of potential CC impacts, this thesis focuses on the following two aspects: (1) Increased exchange of CO2 across the atmosphere-water interface and reaction of CO2 with seawater leads to profound shifts in seawater carbonate chemistry, commonly termed as `ocean acidification´ (OA), with consequences for organism physiology and the availability of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) in seawater. (2) The increase in atmospheric GHG concentration impacts on the efficiency with which the Earth cools to space, affecting global surface temperature and climate. With ongoing CC, shifts in frequency and severity of episodic weather events, such as storms, are expected that in particular might affect lake ecosystems by disrupting thermal summer stratification. Both aspects of CC were studied at the ecosystem-level in large-volume mesocosm experiments by using the Kiel Off-shore Mesocosms for Future Ocean Simulations (KOSMOS) deployed at different coastal marine locations, and the LakeLab facility in Lake Stechlin.
We evaluated the impact of OA on heterotrophic bacterial metabolism in a brackish coastal ecosystem during low-nutrient summer months in the Baltic Sea. There are several in situ experiments that already assessed potential OA-induced changes in natural plankton communities at diverse spatial and seasonal conditions. However, most studies were performed at high phytoplankton biomass conditions, partly provoked by nutrient amendments. Our study highlights potential OA effects at low-nutrient conditions that are representative for most parts of the ocean and of particular interest in current OA research. The results suggest that during extended periods at low-nutrient concentrations, increasing pCO2 levels indirectly impact the growth balance of heterotrophic bacteria via trophic bacteria-phytoplankton interactions and shift the ecosystem to a more autotrophic system.
Further work investigated how OA affects heterotrophic bacterial dissolved organic matter (DOM) transformation in two mesocsom studies, performed at different nutrient conditions. We observed similar succession patterns for individual compound pools during a phytoplankton bloom and subsequent accumulation of these compounds irrespective of the pCO2 treatment. Our results indicate that OA-induced changes in the dynamics of bacterial DOM transformation and potential impacts on DOM quality are unlikely. In addition, there have been no indications that in dependence of nutrient conditions, different amounts of photosynthetic organic matter are channelled into the more recalcitrant DOM pool. This provides novel insights into the general dynamics of the marine DOM pool.
A fourth enclosure experiment in oligo-mesotrophic Lake Stechlin assessed the impact of a severe summer storm on lake bacterial communities during thermal stratification by artificially mixing. Mixing disrupted and lowered the thermocline, increasing the upper mixed layer and substantially changed water physical-chemical variables. Deep water entrainment and associated changes in water physical-chemical variables significantly affected relative bacterial abundances for about one week. Afterwards a pronounced cyanobacterial bloom developed in response to mixing which affected community assembly of heterotrophic bacteria. Colonization and mineralization of senescent phytoplankton cells by heterotrophic bacteria largely determined C-sequestration to the sediment. About six weeks after mixing, bacterial communities and measured activity parameters converged to control conditions. As such, summer storms have the potential to affect bacterial communities for a prolonged period during summer stratification. The results highlight effects on community assembly and heterotrophic bacterial metabolism that are associated to entrainment of deep water into the mixed water layer and assess consequences of an episodic disturbance event for the coupling between bacterial metabolism and autochthonous DOM production in large volume clear-water lakes.
Altogether, this doctoral thesis reveales substantial sensitivities of heterotrophic bacterial metabolism and community structure in response to OA and a simulated summer storm event, which should be considered when assessing the impact of climate change on marine and lake ecosystems.
Climate change affects societies across the globe in various ways. In addition to gradual changes in temperature and other climatic variables, global warming is likely to increase intensity and frequency of extreme weather events.
Beyond biophysical impacts, these also directly affect societal and economic activity. Additionally, indirect effects can occur; spatially, economic losses can spread along global supply-chains; temporally, climate impacts can change the economic development trajectory of countries.
This thesis first examines how climate change alters river flood risk and its local socio-economic implications. Then, it studies the global economic response to river floods in particular, and to climate change in general.
Changes in high-end river flood risk are calculated for the next three decades on a global scale with high spatial resolution. In order to account for uncertainties, this assessment makes use of an ensemble of climate and hydrological models as well as a river routing model, that is found to perform well regarding peak river discharge. The results show an increase in high-end flood risk in many parts of the world, which require profound adaptation efforts. This pressure to adapt is measured as the enhancement in protection level necessary to stay at historical high-end risk. In developing countries as well as in industrialized regions, a high pressure to adapt is observed - the former to increase low protection levels, the latter to maintain the low risk levels perceived in the past.
Further in this thesis, the global agent-based dynamic supply-chain model acclimate is developed. It models the cascading of indirect losses in the global supply network. As an anomaly model its agents - firms and consumers - maximize their profit locally to respond optimally to local perturbations. Incorporating quantities as well as prices on a daily basis, it is suitable to dynamically resolve the impacts of unanticipated climate extremes.
The model is further complemented by a static measure, which captures the inter-dependencies between sectors across regions that are only connected indirectly. These higher-order dependencies are shown to be important for a comprehensive assessment of loss-propagation and overall costs of local disasters.
In order to study the economic response to river floods, the acclimate model is driven by flood simulations. Within the next two decades, the increase in direct losses can only partially be compensated by market adjustments, and total losses are projected to increase by 17% without further adaptation efforts. The US and the EU are both shown to receive indirect losses from China, which is strongly affected directly. However, recent trends in the trade relations leave the EU in a better position to compensate for these losses.
Finally, this thesis takes a broader perspective when determining the investment response to the climate change damages employing the integrated assessment model DICE. On an optimal economic development path, the increase in damages is anticipated as emissions and consequently temperatures increase. This leads to a significant devaluation of investment returns and the income losses from climate damages almost double.
Overall, the results highlight the need to adapt to extreme weather events - local physical adaptation measures have to be combined with regional and global policy measures to prepare the global supply-chain network to climate change.