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Efforts have been made in the past to enhance building exposure models on a regional scale with increasing spatial resolutions by integrating different data sources. This work follows a similar path and focuses on the downscaling of the existing SARA exposure model that was proposed for the residential building stock of the communes of Valparaiso and Vina del Mar (Chile). Although this model allowed great progress in harmonising building classes and characterising their differential physical vulnerabilities, it is now outdated, and in any case, it is spatially aggregated over large administrative units. Hence, to more accurately consider the impact of future earthquakes on these cities, it is necessary to employ more reliable exposure models. For such a purpose, we propose updating this existing model through a Bayesian approach by integrating ancillary data that has been made increasingly available from Volunteering Geo-Information (VGI) activities. Its spatial representation is also optimised in higher resolution aggregation units that avoid the inconvenience of having incomplete building-by-building footprints. A worst-case earthquake scenario is presented to calculate direct economic losses and highlight the degree of uncertainty imposed by exposure models in comparison with other parameters used to generate the seismic ground motions within a sensitivity analysis. This example study shows the great potential of using increasingly available VGI to update worldwide building exposure models as well as its importance in scenario-based seismic risk assessment.
Recently a multitude of empirically derived damage models have been applied to project future tropical cyclone (TC) losses for the United States. In their study (Geiger et al 2016 Environ. Res. Lett. 11 084012) compared two approaches that differ in the scaling of losses with socio-economic drivers: the commonly-used approach resulting in a sub-linear scaling of historical TC losses with a nation's affected gross domestic product (GDP), and the disentangled approach that shows a sub-linear increase with affected population and a super-linear scaling of relative losses with per capita income. Statistics cannot determine which approach is preferable but since process understanding demands that there is a dependence of the loss on both GDP per capita and population, an approach that accounts for both separately is preferable to one which assumes a specific relation between the two dependencies. In the accompanying comment, Rybski et al argued that there is no rigorous evidence to reach the conclusion that high-income does not protect against hurricane losses. Here we affirm that our conclusion is drawn correctly and reply to further remarks raised in the comment, highlighting the adequateness of our approach but also the potential for future extension of our research.
Damage due to tropical cyclones accounts for more than 50% of all meteorologically-induced economic losses worldwide. Their nominal impact is projected to increase substantially as the exposed population grows, per capita income increases, and anthropogenic climate change manifests. So far, historical losses due to tropical cyclones have been found to increase less than linearly with a nation's affected gross domestic product (GDP). Here we show that for the United States this scaling is caused by a sub-linear increase with affected population while relative losses scale super-linearly with per capita income. The finding is robust across a multitude of empirically derived damage models that link the storm's wind speed, exposed population, and per capita GDP to reported losses. The separation of both socio-economic predictors strongly affects the projection of potential future hurricane losses. Separating the effects of growth in population and per-capita income, per hurricane losses with respect to national GDP are projected to triple by the end of the century under unmitigated climate change, while they are estimated to decrease slightly without the separation.
The identification of vulnerabilities in IT infrastructures is a crucial problem in enhancing the security, because many incidents resulted from already known vulnerabilities, which could have been resolved. Thus, the initial identification of vulnerabilities has to be used to directly resolve the related weaknesses and mitigate attack possibilities. The nature of vulnerability information requires a collection and normalization of the information prior to any utilization, because the information is widely distributed in different sources with their unique formats. Therefore, the comprehensive vulnerability model was defined and different sources have been integrated into one database. Furthermore, different analytic approaches have been designed and implemented into the HPI-VDB, which directly benefit from the comprehensive vulnerability model and especially from the logical preconditions and postconditions.
Firstly, different approaches to detect vulnerabilities in both IT systems of average users and corporate networks of large companies are presented. Therefore, the approaches mainly focus on the identification of all installed applications, since it is a fundamental step in the detection. This detection is realized differently depending on the target use-case. Thus, the experience of the user, as well as the layout and possibilities of the target infrastructure are considered. Furthermore, a passive lightweight detection approach was invented that utilizes existing information on corporate networks to identify applications.
In addition, two different approaches to represent the results using attack graphs are illustrated in the comparison between traditional attack graphs and a simplistic graph version, which was integrated into the database as well. The implementation of those use-cases for vulnerability information especially considers the usability. Beside the analytic approaches, the high data quality of the vulnerability information had to be achieved and guaranteed. The different problems of receiving incomplete or unreliable information for the vulnerabilities are addressed with different correction mechanisms. The corrections can be carried out with correlation or lookup mechanisms in reliable sources or identifier dictionaries. Furthermore, a machine learning based verification procedure was presented that allows an automatic derivation of important characteristics from the textual description of the vulnerabilities.
In Vorbereitung der Allgemeinen Bemerkung Nr. 36 zum Recht auf Leben vollzieht der Menschenrechtsausschuss der Vereinten Nationen eine begriffliche Wendung: Fortan wird der Ausschuss nicht mehr von “vulnerable persons”, sondern von “persons in situations of vulnerability” sprechen. Zugleich scheint in der Wendung ein geändertes Verständnis von Vulnerabilität zu liegen, welches strukturelle Ungleichheiten und äußere Umstände, die Verwundbarkeit erzeugen, begrifflich erfasst. Das neue Verständnis scheint damit auch die Problematik der Zuschreibung von Verwundbarkeit zu entschärfen, die ihrerseits zu Marginalisierung betroffener Individuen führen kann. Der Beitrag vollzieht die Debatte um das neue Verständnis von Vulnerabilität im Menschenrechtsausschuss nach, und kontextualisiert diese innerhalb der aktuellen Spruchpraxis des Ausschusses. Besondere Aufmerksamkeit gilt dabei den Klimafällen, welche, so wird argumentiert, in besonderer Weise äußere, vulnerabilitätsproduzierende Umstände adressieren. Schließlich werden die potenziellen Stärken und Schwächen der begrifflichen Wendung reflektiert.
Preface
(2016)
Droughts in São Paulo
(2023)
Literature has suggested that droughts and societies are mutually shaped and, therefore, both require a better understanding of their coevolution on risk reduction and water adaptation. Although the Sao Paulo Metropolitan Region drew attention because of the 2013-2015 drought, this was not the first event. This paper revisits this event and the 1985-1986 drought to compare the evolution of drought risk management aspects. Documents and hydrological records are analyzed to evaluate the hazard intensity, preparedness, exposure, vulnerability, responses, and mitigation aspects of both events. Although the hazard intensity and exposure of the latter event were larger than the former one, the policy implementation delay and the dependency of service areas in a single reservoir exposed the region to higher vulnerability. In addition to the structural and non-structural tools implemented just after the events, this work raises the possibility of rainwater reuse for reducing the stress in reservoirs.