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We show how the maximum magnitude within a predefined future time horizon may be estimated from an earthquake catalog within the context of Gutenberg-Richter statistics. The aim is to carry out a rigorous uncertainty assessment, and calculate precise confidence intervals based on an imposed level of confidence a. In detail, we present a model for the estimation of the maximum magnitude to occur in a time interval T-f in the future, given a complete earthquake catalog for a time period T in the past and, if available, paleoseismic events. For this goal, we solely assume that earthquakes follow a stationary Poisson process in time with unknown productivity Lambda and obey the Gutenberg-Richter law in magnitude domain with unknown b-value. The random variables. and b are estimated by means of Bayes theorem with noninformative prior distributions. Results based on synthetic catalogs and on retrospective calculations of historic catalogs from the highly active area of Japan and the low-seismicity, but high-risk region lower Rhine embayment (LRE) in Germany indicate that the estimated magnitudes are close to the true values. Finally, we discuss whether the techniques can be extended to meet the safety requirements for critical facilities such as nuclear power plants. For this aim, the maximum magnitude for all times has to be considered. In agreement with earlier work, we find that this parameter is not a useful quantity from the viewpoint of statistical inference.
Humans have substantially altered the nitrogen cycle of ecosystems through the application of agricultural fertilizer. Fertilization may not only affect plant species diversity, but also insect dynamics by altering plant nitrogen supplies. We investigated the effect of experimental fertilization on the vegetation, with the ribwort plantain as the focal plant, and on higher trophic levels on differently managed grasslands throughout Germany. Over a period of 2 years, we examined two specialist herbivores and their parasitoid on Plantago lanceolata L., and the composition and structure of the surrounding vegetation. Over 70 sites in three geographic regions, within the large-scale project "German Biodiversity Exploratories", were included in the study. The model system consisted of the host plant P. lanceolata L., the monophagous weevils Mecinus labilis Herbst and M. pascuorum Gyllenhal, and their parasitoid Mesopolobus incultus Walker. Fertilization decreased plant species richness and host plant abundance, whereas it enhanced the total vegetation growth. The increased size and heigher leaf nitrogen content did not improve herbivore performance. On the contrary, the abundance of the two herbivores was decreased by fertilization. The parasitoid depended on the abundance of one of its hosts, M. pascuorum (positively density-dependent). Reduced herbivore abundance due to fertilization might be explained by a lower abundance of the host plant, a lower stalk number, and by changed patterns of host localization within higher vegetation. Fertilization negatively affected the third trophic level by cascading up via host abundance. The relationships between fertilization, surrounding vegetation and the tritrophic system were measured throughout the three regions and over the 2-year period. Our findings present consequences of intensification for a plant-herbivore-parasitoid system, and may have significant implications for the conservation of multitrophic systems in managed grasslands.
Individual-based models (IBMs) are increasingly used to link the dynamics of individuals to higher levels of biological organization. Still, many IBMs are data hungry, species specific, and time-consuming to develop and analyze. Many of these issues would be resolved by using general theories of individual dynamics as the basis for IBMs. While such theories have frequently been examined at the individual level, few cross-level tests exist that also try to predict population dynamics. Here we performed a cross-level test of dynamic energy budget (DEB) theory by parameterizing an individual-based model using individual-level data of the water flea, Daphnia magna, and comparing the emerging population dynamics to independent data from population experiments. We found that DEB theory successfully predicted population growth rates and peak densities but failed to capture the decline phase. Further assumptions on food-dependent mortality of juveniles were needed to capture the population dynamics after the initial population peak. The resulting model then predicted, without further calibration, characteristic switches between small-and large-amplitude cycles, which have been observed for Daphnia. We conclude that cross-level tests help detect gaps in current individual-level theories and ultimately will lead to theory development and the establishment of a generic basis for individual-based models and ecology.
Irradiating a ferromagnet with a femtosecond laser pulse is known to induce an ultrafast demagnetization within a few hundred femtoseconds. Here we demonstrate that direct laser irradiation is in fact not essential for ultrafast demagnetization, and that electron cascades caused by hot electron currents accomplish it very efficiently. We optically excite a Au/Ni layered structure in which the 30 nm Au capping layer absorbs the incident laser pump pulse and subsequently use the X-ray magnetic circular dichroism technique to probe the femtosecond demagnetization of the adjacent 15 nm Ni layer. A demagnetization effect corresponding to the scenario in which the laser directly excites the Ni film is observed, but with a slight temporal delay. We explain this unexpected observation by means of the demagnetizing effect of a superdiffusive current of non-equilibrium, non-spin-polarized electrons generated in the Au layer.
Value creation in scene-based music production - the case of electronic club music in Germany
(2013)
The focus of this article is on the variability of value creation in the popular music industry. Recent trends in electronic music have been based on both the valorization of global tastes and of local specialities in performance and production. Depending on musical styles and market niches, local scenes have become important forces behind heterogeneous globalocal markets. At the same time, technological change and the virtualization of music production and distribution contribute to increasingly differentiated configurations of value creation. It is therefore necessary to reconstruct theoretically and empirically the new interplay among the local music production, digital media markets, and virtual communities that are involved. On the basis of empirical explorations in a German hot spot of electronic club-music production (the city of Berlin), the article indentifies local interaction practice and constellations of stakeholders. The findings show that value creation in these rapidly changing production scenes has moved away from the large-scale distribution of producer-induced media to audience-induced live performance and interactive soundtrack production. This change involves the rising importance of cultural embeddings such as taste building, reputation building among artists and producers, and local community building. Starting from an open theoretical problematization of value creation with regard to fluid scenes and shifting modes of production, the results of first empirical reconstructions are taken as inputs to an evolving discussion on the configurations of value creation in consumer-based strands of music production.
We assessed the automaticity of spatial-numerical and spatial-musical associations by testing their intentionality and load sensitivity in a dual-task paradigm. In separate sessions, 16 healthy adults performed magnitude and pitch comparisons on sung numbers with variable pitch. Stimuli and response alternatives were identical, but the relevant stimulus attribute (pitch or number) differed between tasks. Concomitant tasks required retention of either color or location information. Results show that spatial associations of both magnitude and pitch are load sensitive and that the spatial association for pitch is more powerful than that for magnitude. These findings argue against the automaticity of spatial mappings in either stimulus dimension.
Parafoveal semantic processing has recently been well documented in reading Chinese sentences, presumably because of language-specific features. However, because of a large variation of fixation landing positions on pretarget words, some preview words actually were located in foveal vision when readers' eyes landed close to the end of the pretarget words. None of the previous studies has completely ruled out a possibility that the semantic preview effects might mainly arise from these foveally processed preview words. This case, whether previously observed positive evidence for parafoveal semantic processing can still hold, has been called into question. Using linear mixed models, we demonstrate in this study that semantic preview benefit from word N+1 decreased if fixation on pretarget word N was close to the preview. We argue that parafoveal semantic processing is not a consequence of foveally processed preview words.
Objective: To compare lateralized cerebral activations elicited during self-initiated movement mirroring and observation of movements.
Subjects: A total of 15 right-handed healthy subjects, age range 22-56 years.
Methods: Functional imaging study comparing movement mirroring with movement observation, in both hands, in an otherwise identical setting. Imaging data were analysed using statistical parametric mapping software, with significance threshold set at p<0.01 (false discovery rate) and a minimum cluster size of 20 voxels.
Results: Movement mirroring induced additional activation in primary and higher-order visual areas strictly contralateral to the limb seen by the subject. There was no significant difference of brain activity when comparing movement observation of somebody else's right hand with left hand.
Conclusion: Lateralized cerebral activations are elicited by inversion of visual feedback (movement mirroring), but not by movement observation.
In many hydrological applications, ground-wave velocity measurements are increasingly used to map and monitor shallow soil water content. In this study, we propose an automated spectral velocity analysis method to determine the direct ground-wave (DGW) velocity from common midpoint (CMP) or multi-offset ground-penetrating radar (GPR) data. The method introduced in this paper is a variation of the well-known spectral velocity analysis for seismic and GPR reflection events where velocity spectra are computed using different coherency measures along hyperbolas following the normal moveout model. Here, the unnormalized cross-correlation is computed between waveforms across data gathers that are corrected with a linear moveout equation using a predefined range of velocities. Peaks in the resulting velocity spectra identify linear events in the GPR data gathers like DGW events and allow for estimating the corresponding velocities. In addition to obtaining a DGW velocity measurement, we propose a robust method to estimate the associated velocity uncertainties based on the width of the peak in the calculated velocity spectrum. Our proposed method is tested on synthetic data examples to evaluate the influence of subsurface velocity, surveying geometry and signal frequency on the accuracy of estimated ground-wave velocities. In addition, we investigate the influence of such velocity uncertainties on subsequent soil water content estimates using an established petrophysical relationship. Furthermore, we apply our approach to analyse field data, which were collected across a test site in Canada to monitor a wide range of seasonal soil moisture variations. A comparison between our spectral velocity estimates and results derived from manually picked ground-wave arrivals shows good agreement, which illustrates that our spectral velocity analysis is a feasible tool to analyse DGW arrivals in multi-offset GPR data gathers in an objective and more automated manner.