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Surface displacement at volcanic edifices is related to subsurface processes associated with magma movements, fluid transfers within the volcano edifice and gravity-driven deformation processes. Understanding of associated ground displacements is of importance for assessment of volcanic hazards. For example, volcanic unrest is often preceded by surface uplift, caused by magma intrusion and followed by subsidence, after the withdrawal of magma. Continuous monitoring of the surface displacement at volcanoes therefore might allow the forecasting of upcoming eruptions to some extent. In geophysics, the measured surface displacements allow the parameters of possible deformation sources to be estimated through analytical or numerical modeling. This is one way to improve the understanding of subsurface processes acting at volcanoes. Although the monitoring of volcanoes has significantly improved in the last decades (in terms of technical advancements and number of monitored volcanoes), the forecasting of volcanic eruptions remains puzzling. In this work I contribute towards the understanding of the subsurface processes at volcanoes and thus to the improvement of volcano eruption forecasting. I have investigated the displacement field of Llaima volcano in Chile and of Tendürek volcano in East Turkey by using synthetic aperture radar interferometry (InSAR). Through modeling of the deformation sources with the extracted displacement data, it was possible to gain insights into potential subsurface processes occurring at these two volcanoes that had been barely studied before. The two volcanoes, although of very different origin, composition and geometry, both show a complexity of interacting deformation sources. At Llaima volcano, the InSAR technique was difficult to apply, due to the large decorrelation of the radar signal between the acquisition of images. I developed a model-based unwrapping scheme, which allows the production of reliable displacement maps at the volcano that I used for deformation source modeling. The modeling results show significant differences in pre- and post-eruptive magmatic deformation source parameters. Therefore, I conjecture that two magma chambers exist below Llaima volcano: a post-eruptive deep one and a shallow one possibly due to the pre-eruptive ascent of magma. Similar reservoir depths at Llaima have been confirmed by independent petrologic studies. These reservoirs are interpreted to be temporally coupled. At Tendürek volcano I have found long-term subsidence of the volcanic edifice, which can be described by a large, magmatic, sill-like source that is subject to cooling contraction. The displacement data in conjunction with high-resolution optical images, however, reveal arcuate fractures at the eastern and western flank of the volcano. These are most likely the surface expressions of concentric ring-faults around the volcanic edifice that show low magnitudes of slip over a long time. This might be an alternative mechanism for the development of large caldera structures, which are so far assumed to be generated during large catastrophic collapse events. To investigate the potential subsurface geometry and relation of the two proposed interacting sources at Tendürek, a sill-like magmatic source and ring-faults, I have performed a more sophisticated numerical modeling approach. The optimum source geometries show, that the size of the sill-like source was overestimated in the simple models and that it is difficult to determine the dip angle of the ring-faults with surface displacement data only. However, considering physical and geological criteria a combination of outward-dipping reverse faults in the west and inward-dipping normal faults in the east seem to be the most likely. Consequently, the underground structure at the Tendürek volcano consists of a small, sill-like, contracting, magmatic source below the western summit crater that causes a trapdoor-like faulting along the ring-faults around the volcanic edifice. Therefore, the magmatic source and the ring-faults are also interpreted to be temporally coupled. In addition, a method for data reduction has been improved. The modeling of subsurface deformation sources requires only a relatively small number of well distributed InSAR observations at the earth’s surface. Satellite radar images, however, consist of several millions of these observations. Therefore, the large amount of data needs to be reduced by several orders of magnitude for source modeling, to save computation time and increase model flexibility. I have introduced a model-based subsampling approach in particular for heterogeneously-distributed observations. It allows a fast calculation of the data error variance-covariance matrix, also supports the modeling of time dependent displacement data and is, therefore, an alternative to existing methods.
Changes in the Atlantic overturning circulation have a strong influence on European temperatures, North American sea level and other climate phenomena worldwide. A meaningful assessment of associated societal impacts needs to be based on the full range of its possible future evolution. This requires capturing both the uncertainty in future warming pathways and the inherently long-term response of the ocean circulation. While probabilistic projections of the global mean and regional temperatures exist, process-based probabilistic assessments of large-scale dynamical systems such as the Atlantic overturning are still missing. Here we present such an assessment and find that a reduction of more than 50 % in Atlantic overturning strength by the end of the 21 (s t) century is within the likely range under an unmitigated climate change scenario (RCP8.5). By combining linear response functions derived from comprehensive climate simulations with the full range of possible future warming pathways, we provide probability estimates of overturning changes by the year 2100. A weakening of more than 25 % is found to be very unlikely under a climate protection scenario (RCP2.6), but likely for unmitigated climate change. The method is able to reproduce the modelled recovery caused by climatic equilibration under climate protection scenarios which provides confidence in the approach. Within this century, a reduction of the Atlantic overturning is a robust climatic phenomena that intensifies with global warming and needs to be accounted for in global adaptation strategies.
Coastal flood damage and adaptation costs under 21st century sea-level rise are assessed on a global scale taking into account a wide range of uncertainties in continental topography data, population data, protection strategies, socioeconomic development and sea-level rise. Uncertainty in global mean and regional sea level was derived from four different climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5, each combined with three land-ice scenarios based on the published range of contributions from ice sheets and glaciers. Without adaptation, 0.2-4.6% of global population is expected to be flooded annually in 2100 under 25-123 cm of global mean sea-level rise, with expected annual losses of 0.3-9.3% of global gross domestic product. Damages of this magnitude are very unlikely to be tolerated by society and adaptation will be widespread. The global costs of protecting the coast with dikes are significant with annual investment and maintenance costs of US$ 12-71 billion in 2100, but much smaller than the global cost of avoided damages even without accounting for indirect costs of damage to regional production supply. Flood damages by the end of this century are much more sensitive to the applied protection strategy than to variations in climate and socioeconomic scenarios as well as in physical data sources (topography and climate model). Our results emphasize the central role of long-term coastal adaptation strategies. These should also take into account that protecting large parts of the developed coast increases the risk of catastrophic consequences in the case of defense failure.
Making confident statements about the evolution of an ice-sheet shelf system with a numerical model requires the capability to reproduce the migration of the grounding line. Here we show that the shallow-ice approximation/shallow-shelf approximation hybrid-type Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM), with its recent improvements, is capable of modeling the grounding line motion in a perturbed ice-sheet shelf system. The model is set up according to the three-dimensional Marine Ice-Sheet Model Intercomparison Project (MISMIP3d), and simulations are carried out across a broad range of spatial resolutions. Using (1) a linear interpolation of the grounding line with locally interpolated basal friction and (2) an improved driving-stress computation across the grounding line, the reversibility of the grounding line (i.e. its retreat after an advance forced by a local perturbation of basal resistance) is captured by the model even at medium and low resolutions (Delta x > 10 km). The transient model response is qualitatively similar to that of higher-order models but reveals a higher initial sensitivity to perturbations on very short timescales. Our findings support the application of PISM to the Antarctic ice sheet from regional up to continental scales and on relatively low spatial resolutions.
The Isabena catchment (445 km(2)), Spain, features highly diverse spatial heterogeneity in land use, lithology and rainfall. Consequently, the relative contribution in terms of water and sediment yield varies immensely between its subcatchments, and also temporally. This study presents the synthesis of similar to 2.5 years of monitoring rainfall, discharge and suspended sediment concentration (SSC) in the five main subcatchments of the Isabena and its outlet.
Continuous discharge at the subcatchment outlets, nine tipping bucket rainfall and automatic SSC samplers (complemented by manual samples), were collected from June 2011 until November 2013. The water stage records were converted to discharge using a rating curve derived with Bayesian regression. For reconstructing sediment yields, the data from the intermittent SSC sampling needed to be interpolated. We employed non-parametric multivariate regression (Quantile Regression Forests, QRF) using the discharge and rainfall data plus different aggregation levels of these as ancillary predictors. The subsequent Monte Carlo simulations allowed the determination of monthly sediment yields and their uncertainty.
The Isabena catchment shows high erosion dynamics with great variability in space and time, with stark contrasts even between adjacent subcatchments. The natural conditions make water and sediment monitoring and instrumentation very challenging; the measurement of discharge is particularly prone to considerable uncertainties. The QRF method employed for reconstructing sedigraphs and monthly yields proved well suited for the task.
The southern foreland basin of the Alborz Mountains of northern Iran is characterized by an approximately 7.3-km-thick sequence of Miocene sedimentary rocks, constituting three basin-wde coarsening-upward units spanning a period of 10(6)years. We assess available magnetostratigraphy, paleoclimatic reconstructions, stratal architecture, records of depositional environments, and sediment-provenance data to characterize the relationships between tectonically-generated accommodation space (A) and sediment supply (S). Our analysis allows an inversion of the stratigraphy for particular forcing mechanisms, documenting causal relationships, and providing a basis to decipher the relative contributions of tectonics and climate (inferred changes in precipitation) in controlling sediment supply to the foreland basin. Specifically, A/S>1, typical of each basal unit (17.5-16.0, 13.8-13.1 and 10.3-9.6Ma), is associated with sharp facies retrogradation and reflects substantial tectonic subsidence. Within these time intervals, arid climatic conditions, changes in sediment provenance, and accelerated exhumation in the orogen suggest that sediment supply was most likely driven by high uplift rates. Conversely, A/S<1 (13.8 and 13.8-11Ma, units 1, and 2) reflects facies progradation during a sharp decline in tectonic subsidence caused by localized intra-basinal uplift. During these time intervals, climate continued to be arid and exhumation active, suggesting that sediment supply was again controlled by tectonics. A/S<1, at 11-10.3Ma and 9-6-7.6Ma (and possibly 6.2; top of units 2 and 3), is also associated with two episodes of extensive progradation, but during wetter phases. The first episode appears to have been linked to a pulse in sediment supply driven by an increase in precipitation. The second episode reflects a balance between a climatically-induced increase in sediment supply and a reduction of subsidence through the incorporation of the proximal foreland into the orogenic wedge. This in turn caused an expansion of the catchment and a consequent further increase in sediment supply.
Some of the largest and most erosive floods on Earth result from the failure of glacial dams. While potentially cataclysmic ice dams are recognized to have repeatedly formed along ice-sheet margins, much less is known about the frequency and longevity of ice dams caused by mountain glaciers, and their impact on landscape evolution. Here we present field observations and results from cosmogenic nuclide dating that allow reconstructing a > 100-k.y.-long history of glacial damming in the Shyok Valley, eastern Karakoram (South Asia). Our field observations provide evidence that Asia's second-longest glacier, the Siachen, once extended for over 180 km and blocked the Shyok River during the penultimate glacial period, leading to upstream deposition of a more than 400-m-thick fluvio-lacustrine valley fill. Be-10-depth profile modeling indicates that glacial damming ended with the onset of the Eemian interglacial and that the Shyok River subsequently incised the valley fill at an average rate of similar to 4-7 m k.y.(-1). Comparison with contemporary ice-dammed lakes in the Karakoram and elsewhere suggests recurring outburst floods during the aggradation period, while over 25 cycles of fining-upward lake deposits within the valley fill indicate impounding of floods from farther upstream. Despite prolonged damming, the net effect of this and probably earlier damming episodes by the Siachen Glacier is dominated by glacial erosion in excess of fluvial incision, as evidenced by a pronounced overdeepening that follows the glaciated valley reach. Strikingly similar overdeepened valleys at all major confluences of the Shyok and Indus Rivers with Karakoram tributaries indicate that glacial dams and subsequent outburst floods have been widespread and frequent in this region during the Quaternary. Our study suggests that the interaction of Karakoram glaciers with the Shyok and Indus Rivers promoted valley incision and headward erosion into the western margin of the Tibetan Plateau.
Sr isotope records from marginal marine basins track the mixing between seawater and local continental runoff, potentially recording the effects of sea level, tectonic, and climate forcing in marine fossils and sediments. Our 110 new Sr-87/Sr-86 analyses on oyster and foraminifera samples from six late Miocene stratigraphic sections in southern Turkey, Crete, and Sicily show that Sr-87/Sr-86 fell below global seawater values in the basins several million years before the Messinian Salinity Crisis, coinciding with tectonic uplift and basin shallowing. 87Sr/86Sr from more centrally located basins (away from the Mediterranean coast) drop below global seawater values only during the Messinian Salinity Crisis. In addition to this general trend, 55 new Sr-87/Sr-86 analyses from the astronomically tuned Lower Evaporites in the central Apennines (Italy) allow us to explore the effect of glacio-eustatic sea level and precipitation changes on Sr-87/Sr-86. Most variation in our data can be explained by changes in sea level, with greatest negative excursions from global seawater values occurring during relative sea level lowstands, which generally coincided with arid conditions in the Mediterranean realm. We suggest that this greater sensitivity to lowered sea level compared with higher runoff could relate to the inverse relationship between Sr concentration and river discharge. Variations in the residence time of groundwater within the karst terrain of the circum-Mediterranean region during arid and wet phases may help to explain the single (robust) occurrence of a negative excursion during a sea level highstand, but this explanation remains speculative without more detailed paleoclimatic data for the region.
Erosion in the Himalaya is responsible for one of the greatest mass redistributions on Earth and has fueled models of feedback loops between climate and tectonics. Although the general trends of erosion across the Himalaya are reasonably well known, the relative importance of factors controlling erosion is less well constrained. Here we present 25 Be-10-derived catchment-averaged erosion rates from the Yamuna catchment in the Garhwal Himalaya, northern India. Tributary erosion rates range between similar to 0.1 and 0.5mmyr(-1) in the Lesser Himalaya and similar to 1 and 2mmyr(-1) in the High Himalaya, despite uniform hillslope angles. The erosion-rate data correlate with catchment-averaged values of 5 km radius relief, channel steepness indices, and specific stream power but to varying degrees of nonlinearity. Similar nonlinear relationships and coefficients of determination suggest that topographic steepness is the major control on the spatial variability of erosion and that twofold to threefold differences in annual runoff are of minor importance in this area. Instead, the spatial distribution of erosion in the study area is consistent with a tectonic model in which the rock uplift pattern is largely controlled by the shortening rate and the geometry of the Main Himalayan Thrust fault (MHT). Our data support a shallow dip of the MHT underneath the Lesser Himalaya, followed by a midcrustal ramp underneath the High Himalaya, as indicated by geophysical data. Finally, analysis of sample results from larger main stem rivers indicates significant variability of Be-10-derived erosion rates, possibly related to nonproportional sediment supply from different tributaries and incomplete mixing in main stem channels.