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Within the framework of the international DESIRE (DEad Sea Integrated REsearch) project, a dense temporary local seismological network was operated in the southern Dead Sea area. During 18 recording months, 648 events were detected. Based on an already published tomography study clustering, focal mechanisms, statistics and the distribution of the microseismicity in relation to the velocity models from the tomography are analysed. The determined b value of 0.74 leads to a relatively high risk of large earthquakes compared to the moderate microseismic activity. The distribution of the seismicity indicates an asymmetric basin with a vertical strike-slip fault forming the eastern boundary of the basin, and an inclined western boundary, made up of strike-slip and normal faults. Furthermore, significant differences between the area north and south of the Bokek fault were observed. South of the Bokek fault, the western boundary is inactive while the entire seismicity occurs on the eastern boundary and below the basin-fill sediments. The largest events occurred here, and their focal mechanisms represent the northwards transform motion of the Arabian plate along the Dead Sea Transform. The vertical extension of the spatial and temporal cluster from February 2007 is interpreted as being related to the locking of the region around the Bokek fault. North of the Bokek fault similar seismic activity occurs on both boundaries most notably within the basin-fill sediments, displaying mainly small events with strike-slip mechanism and normal faulting in EW direction. Therefore, we suggest that the Bokek fault forms the border between the single transform fault and the pull-apart basin with two active border faults.
AimFossil pollen spectra from lake sediments in central and western Mongolia have been used to interpret past climatic variations, but hitherto no suitable modern pollen-climate calibration set has been available to infer past climate changes quantitatively. We established such a modern pollen dataset and used it to develop a transfer function model that we applied to a fossil pollen record in order to investigate: (1) whether there was a significant moisture response to the Younger Dryas event in north-western Mongolia; and (2) whether the early Holocene was characterized by dry or wet climatic conditions.
LocationCentral and western Mongolia.
MethodsWe analysed pollen data from surface sediments from 90 lakes. A transfer function for mean annual precipitation (P-ann) was developed with weighted averaging partial least squares regression (WA-PLS) and applied to a fossil pollen record from Lake Bayan Nuur (49.98 degrees N, 93.95 degrees E, 932m a.s.l.). Statistical approaches were used to investigate the modern pollen-climate relationships and assess model performance and reconstruction output.
ResultsRedundancy analysis shows that the modern pollen spectra are characteristic of their respective vegetation types and local climate. Spatial autocorrelation and significance tests of environmental variables show that the WA-PLS model for P-ann is the most valid function for our dataset, and possesses the lowest root mean squared error of prediction.
Main conclusionsPrecipitation is the most important predictor of pollen and vegetation distributions in our study area. Our quantitative climate reconstruction indicates a dry Younger Dryas, a relatively dry early Holocene, a wet mid-Holocene and a dry late Holocene.
Our study presents the results of a moment tensor inversion of 19 microseismic events with M-L between 2.0 and 3.4, associated with the stimulation operation of an enhanced geothermal reservoir in Basel, Switzerland, in 2006. We adopt a three-step procedure to retrieve point source solution parameters based on full waveform inversion. The inversion is performed by fitting displacement amplitude spectra and displacement seismograms in the first and second step, respectively, assuming a double couple source model and thus obtaining focal solutions for all 19 events. Our results are in agreement with focal mechanisms from a previous study, which employed P wave first-motion polarities from more than 40 stations, whereas our solutions are achieved using full waveform data recorded by less than 10 surface stations. In the last step, a full moment tensor inversion is performed. The results from the moment tensor inversion show an improvement on the waveform fitting compared to the double couple models, which is verified by an F-test. We investigate the stability of the moment tensor solutions by employing different velocity models. The isotropic components of the moment tensor solutions of some events are not negligible, suggesting source volume changes due to fluid injection. Events with significant isotropic components occurred mainly during the stimulation phase and close to the injection well. On the other hand, events that occurred in the post-stimulation phase are predominantly pure shear failure and located further away from the well bore. These spatio-temporal patterns can be explained by the influence of pore pressure variations during and after the hydraulic stimulation at the geothermal site. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Trees and shrubs in tropical Africa use the C-3 cycle as a carbon fixation pathway during photosynthesis, while grasses and sedges mostly use the C-4 cycle. Leaf-wax lipids from sedimentary archives such as the long-chain n-alkanes (e.g., n-C-27 to n-C-33) inherit carbon isotope ratios that are representative of the carbon fixation pathway. Therefore, n-alkane delta C-13 values are often used to reconstruct past C-3/C-4 composition of vegetation, assuming that the relative proportions of C-3 and C-4 leaf waxes reflect the relative proportions of C-3 and C-4 plants. We have compared the delta C-13 values of n-alkanes from modern C-3 and C-4 plants with previously published values from recent lake sediments and provide a framework for estimating the fractional contribution (areal-based) of C-3 vegetation cover (f(C3)) represented by these sedimentary archives. Samples were collected in Cameroon, across a latitudinal transect that accommodates a wide range of climate zones and vegetation types, as reflected in the progressive northward replacement of C-3-dominated rain forest by C-4-dominated savanna. The C-3 plants analysed were characterised by substantially higher abundances of n-C-29 alkanes and by substantially lower abundances of n-C-33 alkanes than the C-4 plants. Furthermore, the sedimentary delta C-13 values of n-C-29 and n-C-31 alkanes from recent lake sediments in Cameroon (-37.4%) to 26.5%) were generally within the range of delta C-13 values for C-3 plants, even when from sites where C-4 plants dominated the catchment vegetation. In such cases simple linear mixing models fail to accurately reconstruct the relative proportions of C-3 and C-4 vegetation cover when using the delta C-13 values of sedimentary n-alkanes, overestimating the proportion of C-3 vegetation, likely as a consequence of the differences in plant wax production, preservation, transport, and/or deposition between C-3 and C-4 plants. We therefore tested a set of non-linear binary mixing models using delta C-13 values from both C-3 and C-4 vegetation as end-members. The non-linear models included a sigmoid function (sine-squared) that describes small variations in the f(C3) values as the minimum and maximum delta C-13 values are approached, and a hyperbolic function that takes into account the differences between C-3 and C-4 plants discussed above. Model fitting and the estimation of uncertainties were completed using the Monte Carlo algorithm and can be improved by future data addition. Models that provided the best fit with the observed delta C-13 values of sedimentary n-alkanes were either hyperbolic functions or a combination of hyperbolic and sine-squared functions. Such non-linear models may be used to convert delta C-13 measurements on sedimentary n-alkanes directly into reconstructions of C-3 vegetation cover. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Current evidence suggests that all of the major events in hominin evolution have occurred in East Africa. Over the last two decades, there has been intensive work undertaken to understand African palaeoclimate and tectonics in order to put together a coherent picture of how the environment of East Africa has varied in the past. The landscape of East Africa has altered dramatically over the last 10 million years. It has changed from a relatively flat, homogenous region covered with mixed tropical forest, to a varied and heterogeneous environment, with mountains over 4 km high and vegetation ranging from desert to cloud forest. The progressive rifting of East Africa has also generated numerous lake basins, which are highly sensitive to changes in the local precipitation-evaporation regime. There is now evidence that the presence of precession-driven, ephemeral deep-water lakes in East Africa were concurrent with major events in hominin evolution. It seems the unusual geology and climate of East Africa created periods of highly variable local climate, which, it has been suggested could have driven hominin speciation, encephalisation and dispersal out of Africa. One example is the significant hominin speciation and brain expansion event at -1.8 Ma that seems to have been coeval with the occurrence of highly variable, extensive, deep-water lakes. This complex, climatically very variable setting inspired first the variability selection hypothesis, which was then the basis for the pulsed climate variability hypothesis. The newer of the two suggests that the long-term drying trend in East Africa was punctuated by episodes of short, alternating periods of extreme humidity and aridity. Both hypotheses, together with other key theories of climate-evolution linkages, are discussed in this paper. Though useful the actual evolution mechanisms, which led to early hominins are still unclear and continue to be debated. However, it is clear that an understanding of East African lakes and their palaeoclimate history is required to understand the context within which humans evolved and eventually left East Africa. (C) 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.
This study examines the course and driving forces of recent vegetation change in the Mongolian steppe. A sediment core covering the last 55years from a small closed-basin lake in central Mongolia was analyzed for its multi-proxy record at annual resolution. Pollen analysis shows that highest abundances of planted Poaceae and highest vegetation diversity occurred during 1977-1992, reflecting agricultural development in the lake area. A decrease in diversity and an increase in Artemisia abundance after 1992 indicate enhanced vegetation degradation in recent times, most probably because of overgrazing and farmland abandonment. Human impact is the main factor for the vegetation degradation within the past decades as revealed by a series of redundancy analyses, while climate change and soil erosion play subordinate roles. High Pediastrum (a green algae) influx, high atomic total organic carbon/total nitrogen (TOC/TN) ratios, abundant coarse detrital grains, and the decrease of C-13(org) and N-15 since about 1977 but particularly after 1992 indicate that abundant terrestrial organic matter and nutrients were transported into the lake and caused lake eutrophication, presumably because of intensified land use. Thus, we infer that the transition to a market economy in Mongolia since the early 1990s not only caused dramatic vegetation degradation but also affected the lake ecosystem through anthropogenic changes in the catchment area.
After more than a decade of multidisciplinary studies of the Central American subduction zone mainly in the framework of two large research programmes, the US MARGINS program and the German Collaborative Research Center SFB 574, we here review and interpret the data pertinent to quantify the cycling of mineral-bound volatiles (H2O, CO2, Cl, S) through this subduction system. For input-flux calculations, we divide the Middle America Trench into four segments differing in convergence rate and slab lithological profiles, use the latest evidence for mantle serpentinization of the Cocos slab approaching the trench, and for the first time explicitly include subduction erosion of forearc basement. Resulting input fluxes are 40-62 (53) Tg/Ma/m H2O, 7.8-11.4 (9.3) Tg/Ma/m CO2, 1.3-1.9 (1.6) Tg/Ma/m Cl, and 1.3-2.1 (1.6) Tg/Ma/m S (bracketed are mean values for entire trench length). Output by cold seeps on the forearc amounts to 0.625-1.25 Tg/Ma/m H2O partly derived from the slab sediments as determined by geochemical analyses of fluids and carbonates. The major volatile output occurs at the Central American volcanic arc that is divided into ten arc segments by dextral strike-slip tectonics. Based on volcanic edifice and widespread tephra volumes as well as calculated parental magma masses needed to form observed evolved compositions, we determine long-term (10(5) years) average magma and K2O fluxes for each of the ten segments as 32-242 (106) Tg/Ma/m magma and 0.28-2.91 (1.38) Tg/Ma/m K2O (bracketed are mean values for entire Central American volcanic arc length). Volatile/K2O concentration ratios derived from melt inclusion analyses and petrologic modelling then allow to calculate volatile fluxes as 1.02-14.3 (6.2) Tg/Ma/m H2O, 0.02-0.45 (0.17) Tg/Ma/m CO2, and 0.07-0.34 (0.22) Tg/Ma/m Cl. The same approach yields long-term sulfur fluxes of 0.12-1.08 (0.54) Tg/Ma/m while present-day open-vent SO2-flux monitoring yields 0.06-2.37 (0.83) Tg/Ma/m S. Input-output comparisons show that the arc water fluxes only account for up to 40 % of the input even if we include an "invisible" plutonic component constrained by crustal growth. With 20-30 % of the H2O input transferred into the deeper mantle as suggested by petrologic modeling, there remains a deficiency of, say, 30-40 % in the water budget. At least some of this water is transferred into two upper-plate regions of low seismic velocity and electrical resistivity whose sizes vary along arc: one region widely envelopes the melt ascent paths from slab top to arc and the other extends obliquely from the slab below the forearc to below the arc. Whether these reservoirs are transient or steady remains unknown.
Response spectra are of fundamental importance in earthquake engineering and represent a standard measure in seismic design for the assessment of structural performance. However, unlike Fourier spectral amplitudes, the relationship of response spectral amplitudes to seismological source, path, and site characteristics is not immediately obvious and might even be considered counterintuitive for high oscillator frequencies. The understanding of this relationship is nevertheless important for seismic-hazard analysis. The purpose of the present study is to comprehensively characterize the variation of response spectral amplitudes due to perturbations of the causative seismological parameters. This is done by calculating the absolute parameter sensitivities (sensitivity coefficients) defined as the partial derivatives of the model output with respect to its input parameters. To derive sensitivities, we apply algorithmic differentiation (AD). This powerful approach is extensively used for sensitivity analysis of complex models in meteorology or aerodynamics. To the best of our knowledge, AD has not been explored yet in the seismic-hazard context. Within the present study, AD was successfully implemented for a proven and extensively applied simulation program for response spectra (Stochastic Method SIMulation [SMSIM]) using the TAPENADE AD tool. We assess the effects and importance of input parameter perturbations on the shape of response spectra for different regional stochastic models in a quantitative way. Additionally, we perform sensitivity analysis regarding adjustment issues of groundmotion prediction equations.
Shallow inland water bodies in Malawi continue to be threatened by various environmental challenges despite their importance to the fisheries industry. Due to the complex interaction between natural and anthropogenic disturbances, disentangling the effect of the two may be a complicated process. The littoral zone of most water bodies is important in environmental reconstructions including pollution and lake level monitoring. This study used a littoral zone, transect-based approach employing multi-proxy palaeolimnological techniques to reconstruct recent environmental change (ca. 100 yrs.) in Lake Malombe in the Malawi Rift, East Africa. The results of the study could inform fisheries management in Lake Malombe, which experienced a catastrophic decline in fish stocks. Results support documentary evidence for the complete desiccation of the lake less than 100 years ago. Subsequently, there is evidence for accelerated eutrophication in the recent past. In light of these results, it is concluded that transect sampling approaches rather than relying on single core measurements, and the need for careful consideration of the types of proxy, are significant considerations in palaeoenvironmental reconstructions.