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Aggregate and individual replication probability within an explicit model of the research process
(2011)
We study a model of the research process in which the true effect size, the replication jitter due to changes in experimental procedure, and the statistical error of effect size measurement are all normally distributed random variables. Within this model, we analyze the probability of successfully replicating an initial experimental result by obtaining either a statistically significant result in the same direction or any effect in that direction. We analyze both the probability of successfully replicating a particular experimental effect (i.e., the individual replication probability) and the average probability of successful replication across different studies within some research context (i.e., the aggregate replication probability), and we identify the conditions under which the latter can be approximated using the formulas of Killeen (2005a, 2007). We show how both of these probabilities depend on parameters of the research context that would rarely be known in practice. In addition, we show that the statistical uncertainty associated with the size of an initial observed effect would often prevent accurate estimation of the desired individual replication probability even if these research context parameters were known exactly. We conclude that accurate estimates of replication probability are generally unattainable.
Background:
Recent evidence from animal experiments and studies in humans suggests that early age at first drink (AFD) may lead to higher stress-induced drinking. The present study aimed to extend these findings by examining whether AFD interacted with stressful life events (SLE) and/or with daily hassles regarding the impact on drinking patterns among young adults.
Method:
In 306 participants of an epidemiological cohort study, AFD was assessed together with SLE during the past 3 years, daily hassles in the last month, and drinking behavior at age 22. As outcome variables, 2 variables were derived, reflecting different aspects of alcohol use: the amount of alcohol consumed in the last month and the drinking frequency, indicated by the number of drinking days in the last month.
Results:
Linear regression models revealed an interaction effect between the continuous measures of AFD and SLE on the amount of alcohol consumed. The earlier young adults had their first alcoholic drink and the higher the levels of SLE they were exposed to, the disproportionately more alcohol they consumed. Drinking frequency was not affected by an interaction of these variables, while daily hassles and their interaction with AFD were unrelated to drinking behavior.
Conclusions:
These findings highlight the importance of early age at drinking onset as a risk factor for later heavy drinking under high load of SLE. Prevention programs should aim to raise age at first contact with alcohol. Additionally, support in stressful life situations and the acquisition of effective coping strategies might prevent heavy drinking in those with earlier drinking onset.
The paper presents the implementation of Business Process Management in a large international company. The business case illustrates the main objectives and approach taken with the BPM initiative. Central element of the BPM implementation was the development of a process framework which consists of a reference process house (RPH) and common methods for process management across the company. In order to assess the implementation of Business Process Management and the achievements a process management maturity assessment was developed and implemented. The maturity model is based on nine categories which comprehensively cover all aspects which impact the success of Business Process Management. Some findings of the first assessment cycle are pinpointed to illustrate the benefits and best practice exchange as a result of the assessment.
Following up on research suggesting an age-related reduction in the rightward extent of the perceptual span during reading (Rayner, Castelhano, & Yang, 2009), we compared old and young adults in an N + 2-boundary paradigm in which a nonword preview of word N + 2 or word N + 2 itself is replaced by the target word once the eyes cross an invisible boundary located after word N. The intermediate word N + I was always three letters long. Gaze durations on word N + 2 were significantly shorter for identical than nonword N + 2 preview both for young and for old adults, with no significant difference in this preview benefit. Young adults, however, did modulate their gaze duration on word N more strongly than old adults in response to the difficulty of the parafoveal word N + I. Taken together, the results suggest a dissociation of preview benefit and parafoveal-on-foveal effect. Results are discussed in terms of age-related decline in resilience towards distributed processing while simultaneously preserving the ability to integrate parafoveal information into foveal processing. As such, the present results relate to proposals of regulatory compensation strategies older adults use to secure an overall reading speed very similar to that of young adults.
Following up on research suggesting an age-related reduction in the rightward extent of the perceptual span during reading (Rayner, Castelhano, & Yang, 2009), we compared old and young adults in an N + 2-boundary paradigm in which a nonword preview of word N + 2 or word N + 2 itself is replaced by the target word once the eyes cross an invisible boundary located after word N. The intermediate word N + 1 was always three letters long. Gaze durations on word N + 2 were significantly shorter for identical than nonword N + 2 preview both for young and for old adults, with no significant difference in this preview benefit. Young adults, however, did modulate their gaze duration on word N more strongly than old adults in response to the difficulty of the parafoveal word N + 1. Taken together, the results suggest a dissociation of preview benefit and parafoveal-on-foveal effect. Results are discussed in terms of age-related decline in resilience towards distributed processing while simultaneously preserving the ability to integrate parafoveal information into foveal processing. As such, the present results relate to proposals of regulatory compensation strategies older adults use to secure an overall reading speed very similar to that of young adults. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2011 APA, all rights reserved)
In this work, the adsorption and splitting of the water molecule by light and/or an external potential is investigated in the frame of (photo-) electrochemical cells using a rutile ruthenium dioxide anode. With the help of periodic density functional calculations, the adsorbed structures of H(2)O and some radicals involved in the splitting process (O, OH, OOH) are obtained and compared with the available experimental results. On the basis of these electronic-structure calculations, we use a method to calculate the stability of the reaction intermediates and conclude on the thermodynamical possibility of the water splitting reaction at the surface. We demonstrate that a moderate overpotential of 0.64 V is required for the reaction to take place at the RuO(2)(110) surface.