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This Letter reports the discovery of a remarkably hard spectrum source, HESS J1641-463, by the High Energy Stereoscopic System (H.E.S.S.) in the very high energy (VHE) domain. HESS J1641-463 remained unnoticed by the usual analysis techniques due to confusion with the bright nearby source HESS J1640-465. It emerged at a significance level of 8.5 standard deviations after restricting the analysis to events with energies above 4 TeV. It shows a moderate flux level of phi(E > 1TeV) = (3.64 +/- 0.44(stat)+/- 0.73(sys)) x 10(-13) cm(-2) s(-1), corresponding to 1.8% of the Crab Nebula flux above the same energy, and a hard spectrum with a photon index of Gamma = 2.07 +/- 0.11(stat)+/- 0.20(sys). It is a point-like source, although an extension up to a Gaussian width of sigma = 3 arcmin cannot be discounted due to uncertainties in the H.E.S.S. point-spread function. The VHE gamma-ray flux of HESS J1641-463 is found to be constant over the observed period when checking time binnings from the year-by-year to the 28 minute exposure timescales. HESS J1641-463 is positionally coincident with the radio supernova remnant SNR G338.5+0.1. No X-ray candidate stands out as a clear association; however, Chandra and XMM-Newton data reveal some potential weak counterparts. Various VHE gamma-ray production scenarios are discussed. If the emission from HESS J1641-463 is produced by cosmic ray protons colliding with the ambient gas, then their spectrum must extend close to 1 PeV. This object may represent a source population contributing significantly to the galactic cosmic ray flux around the knee.
Search for dark matter annihilation signatures in HESS observations of
dwarf spheroidal galaxies
(2014)
Dwarf spheroidal galaxies of the Local Group are close satellites of the Milky Way characterized by a large mass-to-light ratio and are not expected to be the site of nonthermal high-energy gamma-ray emission or intense star formation. Therefore they are among the most promising candidates for indirect dark matter searches. During the last years the High Energy Stereoscopic System (H.E.S.S.) of imaging atmospheric Cherenkov telescopes observed five of these dwarf galaxies for more than 140 hours in total, searching for TeV gamma-ray emission from annihilation of dark matter particles. The new results of the deep exposure of the Sagittarius dwarf spheroidal galaxy, the first observations of the Coma Berenices and Fornax dwarves and the reanalysis of two more dwarf spheroidal galaxies already published by the H.E.S.S. Collaboration, Carina and Sculptor, are presented. In the absence of a significant signal new constraints on the annihilation cross section applicable to weakly interacting massive particles (WIMPs) are derived by combining the observations of the five dwarf galaxies. The combined exclusion limit depends on the WIMP mass and the best constraint is reached at 1-2 TeV masses with a cross-section upper bound of similar to 3.9 x 10(-24) cm(3) s(-1) at a 95% confidence level.
Context. About 40% of the observation time of the High Energy Stereoscopic System (H.E.S.S.) is dedicated to studying active galactic nuclei (AGN), with the aim of increasing the sample of known extragalactic very-high-energy (VHE, E > 100 GeV) sources and constraining the physical processes at play in potential emitters.
Aims. H.E.S.S. observations of AGN, spanning a period from April 2004 to December 2011, are investigated to constrain their gamma-ray fluxes. Only the 47 sources without significant excess detected at the position of the targets are presented.
Methods. Upper limits on VHE fluxes of the targets were computed and a search for variability was performed on the nightly time scale.
Results. For 41 objects, the flux upper limits we derived are the most constraining reported to date. These constraints at VHE are compared with the flux level expected from extrapolations of Fermi-LAT measurements in the two-year catalog of AGN. The H.E.S.S. upper limits are at least a factor of two lower than the extrapolated Fermi-LAT fluxes for 11 objects Taking into account the attenuation by the extragalactic background light reduces the tension for all but two of them, suggesting intrinsic curvature in the high-energy spectra of these two AGN.
Conclusions. Compilation efforts led by current VHE instruments are of critical importance for target-selection strategies before the advent of the Cherenkov Telescope Array (CTA).
Context. On March 4, 2013 the Fermi-EAT and AGILE reported a flare from the direction of the Crab nebula in which the high-energy (HE; E > 100 MeV) flux was six times above its quiescent level. Simultaneous observations in other energy bands give us hints about the emission processes during the flare episode and the physics of pulsar wind nebulae in general.
Aims. We search for variability in the emission of the Crab nebula at very-high energies (VHF,; E > 100 GeV), using contemporaneous data taken with the H.E.S.S. array of Cherenkov telescopes.
Methods. Observational data taken with the H.E.S.S. instrument on five consecutive days during the flare were analysed for the flux and spectral shape of the emission from the Crab nebula. Night-wise light curves are presented with energy thresholds of 1 TeV and 5 TeV.
Results. The observations conducted with H.E.S.S. on March 6 to March 10, 2013 show no significant changes in the flux. They limit the variation in the integral flux above 1 TeV to less than 63% and the integral flux above 5 TeV to less than 78% at a 95% confidence level.
The results of follow-up observations of the TeV gamma-ray source HESS J1640-465 from 2004 to 2011 with the High Energy Stereoscopic System (HESS) are reported in this work. The spectrum is well described by an exponential cut-off power law with photon index Gamma = 2.11 +/- 0.09(stat) +/- 0.10(sys), and a cut-off energy of E-2 = 6.0(-1.2)(+2.0) TeV. The TeV emission is significantly extended and overlaps with the northwestern part of the shell of the SNR G338.3-0.0. The new HESS results, a re-analysis of archival XMM-Newton data and multiwavelength observations suggest that a significant part of the gamma-ray emission from HESS J1640-465 originates in the supernova remnant shell. In a hadronic scenario, as suggested by the smooth connection of the GeV and TeV spectra, the product of total proton energy and mean target density could be as high as W(p)n(H) similar to 4 x 10(52)(d/10kpc)(2) erg cm(-3).
Composite supernova remnants (SNRs) constitute a small subclass of the remnants of massive stellar explosions where non-thermal radiation is observed from both the expanding shell-like shock front and from a pulsar wind nebula (PWN) located inside of the SNR. These systems represent a unique evolutionary phase of SNRs where observations in the radio, X-ray, and gamma-ray regimes allow the study of the co-evolution of both these energetic phenomena. In this article, we report results from observations of the shell-type SNR G15.4+0.1 performed with the High Energy Stereoscopic System (H. E. S. S.) and XMM-Newton. A compact TeV gamma-ray source, HESS J1818-154, located in the center and contained within the shell of G15.4+0.1 is detected by H. E. S. S. and featurs a spectrum best represented by a power-law model with a spectral index of -2.3 +/- 0.3(stat) +/- 0.2(sys) and an integral flux of F(>0.42 TeV) = (0.9 +/- 0.3(stat) +/- 0.2(sys)) x 10(-12) cm(-2) s(-1). Furthermore, a recent observation with XMM-Newton reveals extended X-ray emission strongly peaked in the center of G15.4+0.1. The X-ray source shows indications of an energy-dependent morphology featuring a compact core at energies above 4 keV and more extended emission that fills the entire region within the SNR at lower energies. Together, the X-ray and VHE gamma-ray emission provide strong evidence of a PWN located inside the shell of G15.4+0.1 and this SNR can therefore be classified as a composite based on these observations. The radio, X-ray, and gamma-ray emission from the PWN is compatible with a one-zone leptonic model that requires a low average magnetic field inside the emission region. An unambiguous counterpart to the putative pulsar, which is thought to power the PWN, has been detected neither in radio nor in X-ray observations of G15.4+0.1.
Context. Very-high-energy (VHE; E > 100 GeV) gamma-ray emission from blazars inevitably gives rise to electron-positron pair production through the interaction of these gamma-rays with the extragalactic background light (EBL). Depending on the magnetic fields in the proximity of the source, the cascade initiated from pair production can result in either an isotropic halo around an initially- beamed source or a magnetically- broadened cascade :aux.
Aims. Both extended pair-halo (PH) and magnetically broadened cascade (MBC) emission from regions surrounding the blazars 1ES 1101-232, IRS 0229+200, and PKS 2155-304 were searched for using VHE y-ray data taken with the High Energy Stereoscopic System (HESS.) and high-energy (HE; 100 MeV < E < 100 GeV) gamma-ray data with the Fermi Large Area Telescope (LAT).
Methods. By comparing the angular distributions of the reconstructed gamma-ray events to the angular profiles calculated from detailed theoretical models, the presence of PH and MBC was investigated.
Results. Upper limits on the extended emission around lES 1101-232, lES 0229+200, and PKS 2155-304 are found to be at a level of a few per cent of the Crab nebula flux above 1 TeV, depending on the assumed photon index of the cascade emission. Assuming strong extra-Galactic magnetic field (EGME) values, >10(-12) G, this limits the production of pair haloes developing from electromagnetic cascades. For weaker magnetic fields, in which electromagnetic cascades would result in MBCs. EGMF strengths in the range (0.3-3) x 10(-15) G were excluded for PKS 2155-304 at the 99% confidence level, under the assumption of a 1 Mpc coherence length.
Search for TeV Gamma-ray emission from GRB 100621A, an extremely bright GRB in X-rays, with HESS
(2014)
The long gamma-ray burst (GRB) 100621A, at the time the brightest X-ray transient ever detected by Swift-XRT in the 0.3-10 keV range, has been observed with the H.E.S.S. imaging air Cherenkov telescope array, sensitive to gamma radiation in the very-high-energy (VHE, >100 GeV) regime. Due to its relatively small redshift of z similar to 0.5, the favourable position in the southern sky and the relatively short follow-up time (<700 s after the satellite trigger) of the H.E.S.S. observations, this GRB could be within the sensitivity reach of the HESS. instrument. The analysis of the HESS. data shows no indication of emission and yields an integral flux upper limit above similar to 380 GeV of 4.2 x 10(-12) cm(-2) s(-1) s (95% confidence level), assuming a simple Band function extension model. A comparison to a spectral-temporal model, normalised to the prompt flux at sub-MeV energies, constraints the existence of a temporally extended and strong additional hard power law, as has been observed in the other bright X-ray GRB 130427A. A comparison between the HESS. upper limit and the contemporaneous energy output in X-rays constrains the ratio between the X-ray and VHE gamma-ray fluxes to be greater than 0.4. This value is an important quantity for modelling the afterglow and can constrain leptonic emission scenarios, where leptons are responsible for the X-ray emission and might produce VHE gamma rays.
To support scientifically sound water management in dryland environments a modelling system has been developed for the quantitative assessment of water and sediment fluxes in catchments, transport in the river system, and retention in reservoirs. The spatial scale of interest is the mesoscale because this is the scale most relevant for management of water and land resources.
This modelling system comprises process-oriented hydrological components tailored for dryland characteristics coupled with components comprising hillslope erosion, sediment transport and reservoir deposition processes. The spatial discretization is hierarchically designed according to a multi-scale concept to account for particular relevant process scales. The non-linear and partly intermittent run-off generation and sediment dynamics are dealt with by accounting for connectivity phenomena at the intersections of landscape compartments. The modelling system has been developed by means of data from nested research catchments in NE-Spain and in NE-Brazil.
In the semi-arid NE of Brazil sediment retention along the topography is the main process for sediment retention at all scales, i.e. the sediment delivery is transport limited. This kind of deposition retains roughly 50 to 60 % of eroded sediment, maintaining a similar deposition proportion in all spatial scales investigated. On the other hand, the sediment retained in reservoirs is clearly related to the scale, increasing with catchment area. With increasing area, there are more reservoirs, increasing the possibility of deposition. Furthermore, the area increase also promotes an increase in flow volume, favouring the construction of larger reservoirs, which generally overflow less frequently and retain higher sediment fractions. The second example comprises a highly dynamic Mediterranean catchment in NE-Spain with nested sub-catchments and reveals the full dynamics of hydrological, erosion and deposition features. The run-off modelling performed well with only some overestimation during low-flow periods due to the neglect of water losses along the river. The simulated peaks in sediment flux are reproduced well, while low-flow sediment transport is less well captured, due to the disregard of sediment remobilization in the riverbed during low flow.
This combined observation and modelling study deepened the understanding of hydro-sedimentological systems characterized by flashy run-off generation and by erosion and sediment transport pulses through the different landscape compartments. The connectivity between the different landscape compartments plays a very relevant role, regarding both the total mass of water and sediment transport and the transport time through the catchment.
Background: Pavlovian processes are thought to play an important role in the development, maintenance and relapse of alcohol dependence, possibly by influencing and usurping ongoing thought and behavior. The influence of pavlovian stimuli on ongoing behavior is paradigmatically measured by pavlovian-to-instrumental transfer (PIT) tasks. These involve multiple stages and are complex. Whether increased PIT is involved in human alcohol dependence is uncertain. We therefore aimed to establish and validate a modified PIT paradigm that would be robust, consistent and tolerated by healthy controls as well as by patients suffering from alcohol dependence, and to explore whether alcohol dependence is associated with enhanced PIT. Methods: Thirty-two recently detoxified alcohol-dependent patients and 32 age- and gender-matched healthy controls performed a PIT task with instrumental go/no-go approach behaviors. The task involved both pavlovian stimuli associated with monetary rewards and losses, and images of drinks. Results: Both patients and healthy controls showed a robust and temporally stable PIT effect. Strengths of PIT effects to drug-related and monetary conditioned stimuli were highly correlated. Patients more frequently showed a PIT effect, and the effect was stronger in response to aversively conditioned CSs (conditioned suppression), but there was no group difference in response to appetitive CSs. Conclusion: The implementation of PIT has favorably robust properties in chronic alcohol-dependent patients and in healthy controls. It shows internal consistency between monetary and drug-related cues. The findings support an association of alcohol dependence with an increased propensity towards PIT.
Working memory load-dependent brain response predicts behavioral training gains in older adults
(2014)
In the domain of working memory (WM), a sigmoid-shaped relationship between WM load and brain activation patterns has been demonstrated in younger adults. It has been suggested that age-related alterations of this pattern are associated with changes in neural efficiency and capacity. At the same time, WM training studies have shown that some older adults are able to increase their WM performance through training. In this study, functional magnetic resonance imaging during an n-back WM task at different WM load levels was applied to compare blood oxygen level-dependent (BOLD) responses between younger and older participants and to predict gains in WM performance after a subsequent 12-session WM training procedure in older adults. We show that increased neural efficiency and capacity, as reflected by more "youth-like" brain response patterns in regions of interest of the frontoparietal WM network, were associated with better behavioral training outcome beyond the effects of age, sex, education, gray matter volume, and baseline WM performance. Furthermore, at low difficulty levels, decreases in BOLD response were found after WM training. Results indicate that both neural efficiency (i. e., decreased activation at comparable performance levels) and capacity (i. e., increasing activation with increasing WM load) of a WM-related network predict plasticity of the WM system, whereas WM training may specifically increase neural efficiency in older adults.
Background: Human and animal work suggests a shift from goal-directed to habitual decision-making in addiction. However, the evidence for this in human alcohol dependence is as yet inconclusive. Methods: Twenty-six healthy controls and 26 recently detoxified alcohol-dependent patients underwent behavioral testing with a 2-step task designed to disentangle goal-directed and habitual response patterns. Results: Alcohol-dependent patients showed less evidence of goal-directed choices than healthy controls, particularly after losses. There was no difference in the strength of the habitual component. The group differences did not survive controlling for performance on the Digit Symbol Substitution Task. Conclusion: Chronic alcohol use appears to selectively impair goal-directed function, rather than promoting habitual responding. It appears to do so particularly after nonrewards, and this may be mediated by the effects of alcohol on more general cognitive functions subserved by the prefrontal cortex.
Processing of reward is the basis of adaptive behavior of the human being. Neural correlates of reward processing seem to be influenced by developmental changes from adolescence to late adulthood. The aim of this study is to uncover these neural correlates during a slot machine gambling task across the lifespan. Therefore, we used functional magnetic resonance imaging to investigate 102 volunteers in three different age groups: 34 adolescents, 34 younger adults, and 34 older adults. We focused on the core reward areas ventral striatum (VS) and ventromedial prefrontal cortex (VMPFC), the valence processing associated areas, anterior cingulate cortex (ACC) and insula, as well as information integration associated areas, dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC), and inferior parietal lobule (IPL). Results showed that VS and VMPFC were characterized by a hyperactivation in adolescents compared with younger adults. Furthermore, the ACC and insula were characterized by a U-shape pattern (hypoactivation in younger adults compared with adolescents and older adults), whereas the DLPFC and IPL were characterized by a J-shaped form (hyperactivation in older adults compared with younger groups). Furthermore, a functional connectivity analysis revealed an elevated negative functional coupling between the inhibition-related area rIFG and VS in younger adults compared with adolescents. Results indicate that lifespan-related changes during reward anticipation are characterized by different trajectories in different reward network modules and support the hypothesis of an imbalance in maturation of striatal and prefrontal cortex in adolescents. Furthermore, these results suggest compensatory age-specific effects in fronto-parietal regions. Hum Brain Mapp 35:5153-5165, 2014. (c) 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.
Theories of decision-making and its neural substrates have long assumed the existence of two distinct and competing valuation systems, variously described as goal-directed vs. habitual, or, more recently and based on statistical arguments, as model-free vs. model-based reinforcement-learning. Though both have been shown to control choices, the cognitive abilities associated with these systems are under ongoing investigation. Here we examine the link to cognitive abilities, and find that individual differences in processing speed covary with a shift from model-free to model-based choice control in the presence of above-average working memory function. This suggests shared cognitive and neural processes; provides a bridge between literatures on intelligence and valuation; and may guide the development of process models of different valuation components. Furthermore, it provides a rationale for individual differences in the tendency to deploy valuation systems, which may be important for understanding the manifold neuropsychiatric diseases associated with malfunctions of valuation.
The strong present-day Asian monsoons are thought to have originated between 25 and 22 million years (Myr) ago, driven by Tibetan-Himalayan uplift. However, the existence of older Asian monsoons and their response to enhanced greenhouse conditions such as those in the Eocene period (55-34Myrago) are unknown because of the paucity of well-dated records. Here we show late Eocene climate records revealing marked monsoon-like patterns in rainfall and wind south and north of the Tibetan-Himalayan orogen. This is indicated by low oxygen isotope values with strong seasonality in gastropod shells and mammal teeth from Myanmar, and by aeolian dust deposition in northwest China. Our climate simulations support modern-like Eocene monsoonal rainfall and show that a reinforced hydrological cycle responding to enhanced greenhouse conditions counterbalanced the negative effect of lower Tibetan relief on precipitation. These strong monsoons later weakened with the global shift to icehouse conditions 34 Myr ago.
TeV gamma-ray observations of the young synchrotron-dominated SNRs G1.9+0.3 and G330.2+1.0 with HESS
(2014)
The non-thermal nature of the X-ray emission from the shell-type supernova remnants (SNRs) G1.9+0.3 and G330.2+1.0 is an indication of intense particle acceleration in the shock fronts of both objects. This suggests that the SNRs are prime candidates for very-high-energy (VHE; E > 0.1 TeV) gamma-ray observations. G1.9+0.3, recently established as the youngest known SNR in the Galaxy, also offers a unique opportunity to study the earliest stages of SNR evolution in the VHE domain. The purpose of this work is to probe the level of VHE gamma-ray emission from both SNRs and use this to constrain their physical properties. Observations were conducted with the H. E. S. S. (High Energy Stereoscopic System) Cherenkov Telescope Array over a more than six-year period spanning 2004-2010. The obtained data have effective livetimes of 67 h for G1.9+0.3 and 16 h for G330.2+1.0. The data are analysed in the context of the multiwavelength observations currently available and in the framework of both leptonic and hadronic particle acceleration scenarios. No significant gamma-ray signal from G1.9+0.3 or G330.2+1.0 was detected. Upper limits (99 per cent confidence level) to the TeV flux from G1.9+0.3 and G330.2+1.0 for the assumed spectral index Gamma = 2.5 were set at 5.6 x 10(-1)3 cm(-2) s(-1) above 0.26 TeV and 3.2 x 10(-12) cm(-2) s(-1) above 0.38 TeV, respectively. In a one-zone leptonic scenario, these upper limits imply lower limits on the interior magnetic field to B-G1.9 greater than or similar to 12 mu G for G1.9+0.3 and to B-G330 greater than or similar to 8 mu G for G330.2+1.0. In a hadronic scenario, the low ambient densities and the large distances to the SNRs result in very low predicted fluxes, for which the H.E.S.S. upper limits are not constraining.
Diffuse gamma-ray emission is the most prominent observable signature of celestial cosmic-ray interactions at high energies. While already being investigated at GeVenergies over several decades, assessments of diffuse gamma-ray emission at TeVenergies remain sparse. After completion of the systematic survey of the inner Galaxy, the H.E.S.S. experiment is in a prime position to observe large-scale diffuse emission at TeVenergies. Data of the H.E.S.S. Galactic Plane Survey are investigated in regions off known gamma-ray sources. Corresponding gamma-ray flux measurements were made over an extensive grid of celestial locations. Longitudinal and latitudinal profiles of the observed gamma-ray fluxes show characteristic excess emission not attributable to known gamma-ray sources. For the first time large-scale gamma-ray emission along the Galactic plane using imaging atmospheric Cherenkov telescopes has been observed. While the background subtraction technique limits the ability to recover modest variation on the scale of the H.E.S.S. field of view or larger, which is characteristic of the inverse Compton scatter-induced Galactic diffuse emission, contributions of neutral pion decay as well as emission from unresolved gamma-ray sources can be recovered in the observed signal to a large fraction. Calculations show that the minimum gamma-ray emission from pi(0) decay represents a significant contribution to the total signal. This detection is interpreted as a mix of diffuse Galactic gamma-ray emission and unresolved sources.
In this paper we report on the analysis of all the available optical and very high-energy gamma-ray (> 200 GeV) data for the BL Lac object PKS 2155-304, collected simultaneously with the ATOM and H.E.S.S. telescopes from 2007 until 2009. This study also includes X-ray (RXTE, Swift) and high-energy gamma-ray (Fermi-LAT) data. During the period analysed, the source was transitioning from its flaring to quiescent optical states, and was characterized by only moderate flux changes at different wavelengths on the timescales of days and months. A flattening of the optical continuum with an increasing optical flux can be noted in the collected dataset, but only occasionally and only at higher flux levels. We did not find any universal relation between the very high-energy gamma-ray and optical flux changes on the timescales from days and weeks up to several years. On the other hand, we noted that at higher flux levels the source can follow two distinct tracks in the optical flux-colour diagrams, which seem to be related to distinct gamma-ray states of the blazar. The obtained results therefore indicate a complex scaling between the optical and gamma-ray emission of PKS 2155 304, with different correlation patterns holding at different epochs, and a gamma-ray flux depending on the combination of an optical flux and colour rather than a flux alone.
Objectives. Recent work suggests that a genetic variation associated with increased dopamine metabolism in the prefrontal cortex (catechol-O-methyltransferase Val158Met; COMT) amplifies age-related changes in working memory performance. Research on younger adults indicates that the influence of dopamine-related genetic polymorphisms on working memory performance increases when testing the cognitive limits through training. To date, this has not been studied in older adults. Method. Here we investigate the effect of COMT genotype on plasticity in working memory in a sample of 14 younger (aged 24-30 years) and 25 older (aged 60-75 years) healthy adults. Participants underwent adaptive training in the n-back working memory task over 12 sessions under increasing difficulty conditions. Results. Both younger and older adults exhibited sizeable behavioral plasticity through training (P < .001), which was larger in younger as compared to older adults (P < .001). Age-related differences were qualified by an interaction with COMT genotype (P < .001), and this interaction was due to decreased behavioral plasticity in older adults carrying the Val/Val genotype, while there was no effect of genotype in younger adults. Discussion. Our findings indicate that age-related changes in plasticity in working memory are critically affected by genetic variation in prefrontal dopamine metabolism.
The largest uncertainty in projections of future sea-level change results from the potentially changing dynamical ice discharge from Antarctica. Basal ice-shelf melting induced by a warming ocean has been identified as a major cause for additional ice flow across the grounding line. Here we attempt to estimate the uncertainty range of future ice discharge from Antarctica by combining uncertainty in the climatic forcing, the oceanic response and the ice-sheet model response. The uncertainty in the global mean temperature increase is obtained from historically constrained emulations with the MAGICC-6.0 (Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse gas Induced Climate Change) model. The oceanic forcing is derived from scaling of the subsurface with the atmospheric warming from 19 comprehensive climate models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP-5) and two ocean models from the EU-project Ice2Sea. The dynamic ice-sheet response is derived from linear response functions for basal ice-shelf melting for four different Antarctic drainage regions using experiments from the Sea-level Response to Ice Sheet Evolution (SeaRISE) intercomparison project with five different Antarctic ice-sheet models. The resulting uncertainty range for the historic Antarctic contribution to global sea-level rise from 1992 to 2011 agrees with the observed contribution for this period if we use the three ice-sheet models with an explicit representation of ice-shelf dynamics and account for the time-delayed warming of the oceanic subsurface compared to the surface air temperature. The median of the additional ice loss for the 21st century is computed to 0.07 m (66% range: 0.02-0.14 m; 90% range: 0.0-0.23 m) of global sea-level equivalent for the low-emission RCP-2.6 (Representative Concentration Pathway) scenario and 0.09 m (66% range: 0.04-0.21 m; 90% range: 0.01-0.37 m) for the strongest RCP-8.5. Assuming no time delay between the atmospheric warming and the oceanic subsurface, these values increase to 0.09 m (66% range: 0.04-0.17 m; 90% range: 0.02-0.25 m) for RCP-2.6 and 0.15 m (66% range: 0.07-0.28 m; 90% range: 0.04-0.43 m) for RCP-8.5. All probability distributions are highly skewed towards high values. The applied ice-sheet models are coarse resolution with limitations in the representation of grounding-line motion. Within the constraints of the applied methods, the uncertainty induced from different ice-sheet models is smaller than that induced by the external forcing to the ice sheets.