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TeV gamma-ray observations of the young synchrotron-dominated SNRs G1.9+0.3 and G330.2+1.0 with HESS
(2014)
The non-thermal nature of the X-ray emission from the shell-type supernova remnants (SNRs) G1.9+0.3 and G330.2+1.0 is an indication of intense particle acceleration in the shock fronts of both objects. This suggests that the SNRs are prime candidates for very-high-energy (VHE; E > 0.1 TeV) gamma-ray observations. G1.9+0.3, recently established as the youngest known SNR in the Galaxy, also offers a unique opportunity to study the earliest stages of SNR evolution in the VHE domain. The purpose of this work is to probe the level of VHE gamma-ray emission from both SNRs and use this to constrain their physical properties. Observations were conducted with the H. E. S. S. (High Energy Stereoscopic System) Cherenkov Telescope Array over a more than six-year period spanning 2004-2010. The obtained data have effective livetimes of 67 h for G1.9+0.3 and 16 h for G330.2+1.0. The data are analysed in the context of the multiwavelength observations currently available and in the framework of both leptonic and hadronic particle acceleration scenarios. No significant gamma-ray signal from G1.9+0.3 or G330.2+1.0 was detected. Upper limits (99 per cent confidence level) to the TeV flux from G1.9+0.3 and G330.2+1.0 for the assumed spectral index Gamma = 2.5 were set at 5.6 x 10(-1)3 cm(-2) s(-1) above 0.26 TeV and 3.2 x 10(-12) cm(-2) s(-1) above 0.38 TeV, respectively. In a one-zone leptonic scenario, these upper limits imply lower limits on the interior magnetic field to B-G1.9 greater than or similar to 12 mu G for G1.9+0.3 and to B-G330 greater than or similar to 8 mu G for G330.2+1.0. In a hadronic scenario, the low ambient densities and the large distances to the SNRs result in very low predicted fluxes, for which the H.E.S.S. upper limits are not constraining.
Diffuse gamma-ray emission is the most prominent observable signature of celestial cosmic-ray interactions at high energies. While already being investigated at GeVenergies over several decades, assessments of diffuse gamma-ray emission at TeVenergies remain sparse. After completion of the systematic survey of the inner Galaxy, the H.E.S.S. experiment is in a prime position to observe large-scale diffuse emission at TeVenergies. Data of the H.E.S.S. Galactic Plane Survey are investigated in regions off known gamma-ray sources. Corresponding gamma-ray flux measurements were made over an extensive grid of celestial locations. Longitudinal and latitudinal profiles of the observed gamma-ray fluxes show characteristic excess emission not attributable to known gamma-ray sources. For the first time large-scale gamma-ray emission along the Galactic plane using imaging atmospheric Cherenkov telescopes has been observed. While the background subtraction technique limits the ability to recover modest variation on the scale of the H.E.S.S. field of view or larger, which is characteristic of the inverse Compton scatter-induced Galactic diffuse emission, contributions of neutral pion decay as well as emission from unresolved gamma-ray sources can be recovered in the observed signal to a large fraction. Calculations show that the minimum gamma-ray emission from pi(0) decay represents a significant contribution to the total signal. This detection is interpreted as a mix of diffuse Galactic gamma-ray emission and unresolved sources.
In hydrology, the storage-discharge relationship is a fundamental catchment property. Understanding what controls this relationship is at the core of catchment science. To date, there are no direct methods to measure water storage at catchment scales (10(1)-10(3)km(2)). In this study, we use direct measurements of terrestrial water storage dynamics by means of superconducting gravimetry in a small headwater catchment of the Regen River, Germany, to derive empirical storage-discharge relationships in nested catchments of increasing scale. Our results show that the local storage measurements are strongly related to streamflow dynamics at larger scales (> 100km(2); correlation coefficient=0.78-0.81), but at small scale, no such relationship exists (similar to 1km(2); correlation coefficients=-0.11). The geologic setting in the region can explain both the disconnection between local water storage and headwater runoff, and the connectivity between headwater storage and streams draining larger catchment areas. More research is required to understand what controls the form of the observed storage-discharge relationships at the catchment scale. This study demonstrates that high-precision gravimetry can provide new insights into the complex relationship between state and response of hydrological systems.
Flood hazard projections under climate change are typically derived by applying model chains consisting of the following elements: "emission scenario - global climate model - downscaling, possibly including bias correction hydrological model - flood frequency analysis". To date, this approach yields very uncertain results, due to the difficulties of global and regional climate models to represent precipitation. The implementation of such model chains requires major efforts, and their complexity is high.
We propose for the Mekong River an alternative approach which is based on a shortened model chain: "emission scenario - global climate model - non-stationary flood frequency model". The underlying idea is to use a link between the Western Pacific monsoon and local flood characteristics: the variance of the monsoon drives a non-stationary flood frequency model, yielding a direct estimate of flood probabilities. This approach bypasses the uncertain precipitation, since the monsoon variance is derived from large-scale wind fields which are better represented by climate models. The simplicity of the monsoon-flood link allows deriving large ensembles of flood projections under climate change. We conclude that this is a worthwhile, complementary approach to the typical model chains in catchments where a substantial link between climate and floods is found.
We investigate the usefulness of complex flood damage models for predicting relative damage to residential buildings in a spatial and temporal transfer context. We apply eight different flood damage models to predict relative building damage for five historic flood events in two different regions of Germany. Model complexity is measured in terms of the number of explanatory variables which varies from 1 variable up to 10 variables which are singled out from 28 candidate variables. Model validation is based on empirical damage data, whereas observation uncertainty is taken into consideration. The comparison of model predictive performance shows that additional explanatory variables besides the water depth improve the predictive capability in a spatial and temporal transfer context, i.e., when the models are transferred to different regions and different flood events. Concerning the trade-off between predictive capability and reliability the model structure seem more important than the number of explanatory variables. Among the models considered, the reliability of Bayesian network-based predictions in space-time transfer is larger than for the remaining models, and the uncertainties associated with damage predictions are reflected more completely.
Flood estimation and flood management have traditionally been the domain of hydrologists, water resources engineers and statisticians, and disciplinary approaches abound. Dominant views have been shaped; one example is the catchment perspective: floods are formed and influenced by the interaction of local, catchment-specific characteristics, such as meteorology, topography and geology. These traditional views have been beneficial, but they have a narrow framing. In this paper we contrast traditional views with broader perspectives that are emerging from an improved understanding of the climatic context of floods. We come to the following conclusions: (1) extending the traditional system boundaries (local catchment, recent decades, hydrological/hydraulic processes) opens up exciting possibilities for better understanding and improved tools for flood risk assessment and management. (2) Statistical approaches in flood estimation need to be complemented by the search for the causal mechanisms and dominant processes in the atmosphere, catchment and river system that leave their fingerprints on flood characteristics. (3) Natural climate variability leads to time-varying flood characteristics, and this variation may be partially quantifiable and predictable, with the perspective of dynamic, climate-informed flood risk management. (4) Efforts are needed to fully account for factors that contribute to changes in all three risk components (hazard, exposure, vulnerability) and to better understand the interactions between society and floods. (5) Given the global scale and societal importance, we call for the organization of an international multidisciplinary collaboration and data-sharing initiative to further understand the links between climate and flooding and to advance flood research.
Sedimentation in the floodplains of the Mekong Delta, Vietnam Part II: deposition and erosion
(2014)
Deposition and erosion play a key role in the determination of the sediment budget of a river basin, as well as for floodplain sedimentation. Floodplain sedimentation, in turn, is a relevant factor for the design of flood protection measures, productivity of agro-ecosystems, and for ecological rehabilitation plans. In the Mekong Delta, erosion and deposition are important factors for geomorphological processes like the compensation of deltaic subsidence as well as for agricultural productivity. Floodplain deposition is also counteracting the increasing climate change induced hazard by sea level rise in the delta. Despite this importance, a sediment database of the Mekong Delta is lacking, and the knowledge about erosion and deposition processes is limited. In the Vietnamese part of the Delta, the annually flooded natural floodplains have been replaced by a dense system of channels, dikes, paddy fields, and aquaculture ponds, resulting in floodplain compartments protected by ring dikes. The agricultural productivity depends on the sediment and associated nutrient input to the floodplains by the annual floods. However, no quantitative information regarding their sediment trapping efficiency has been reported yet. The present study investigates deposition and erosion based on intensive field measurements in three consecutive years (2008, 2009, and 2010). Optical backscatter sensors are used in combination with sediment traps for interpreting deposition and erosion processes in different locations. In our study area, the mean calculated deposition rate is 6.86kg/m(2) (approximate to 6mm/year). The key parameters for calculating erosion and deposition are estimated, i.e. the critical bed shear stress for deposition and erosion and the surface constant erosion rate. The bulk of the floodplain sediment deposition is found to occur during the initial stage of floodplain inundation. This finding has direct implications on the operation of sluice gates in order to optimize sediment input and distribution in the floodplains.
Response spectra are of fundamental importance in earthquake engineering and represent a standard measure in seismic design for the assessment of structural performance. However, unlike Fourier spectral amplitudes, the relationship of response spectral amplitudes to seismological source, path, and site characteristics is not immediately obvious and might even be considered counterintuitive for high oscillator frequencies. The understanding of this relationship is nevertheless important for seismic-hazard analysis. The purpose of the present study is to comprehensively characterize the variation of response spectral amplitudes due to perturbations of the causative seismological parameters. This is done by calculating the absolute parameter sensitivities (sensitivity coefficients) defined as the partial derivatives of the model output with respect to its input parameters. To derive sensitivities, we apply algorithmic differentiation (AD). This powerful approach is extensively used for sensitivity analysis of complex models in meteorology or aerodynamics. To the best of our knowledge, AD has not been explored yet in the seismic-hazard context. Within the present study, AD was successfully implemented for a proven and extensively applied simulation program for response spectra (Stochastic Method SIMulation [SMSIM]) using the TAPENADE AD tool. We assess the effects and importance of input parameter perturbations on the shape of response spectra for different regional stochastic models in a quantitative way. Additionally, we perform sensitivity analysis regarding adjustment issues of groundmotion prediction equations.