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Ongoing development of dynamical atmosphere-ocean general circulation models keep expectations high regarding seasonal predictions of Indian monsoon rainfall. This study compares past and present skill of four currently operating forecasting systems, CFSv2 from NCEP, ENSEMBLES, System 4 and the newest SEAS5 from ECMWF, by analysing correlations of respective hindcasts with observed all-India summer rainfall. For the common time period 1982-2005, only ENSEMBLES and CFSv2 give significantly skilful forecasts. It is shown that skill is highly dependent on the chosen time period. Especially the intense El Nino of 1997 seems to degrade the predictions, most notably for SEAS4 and SEAS5 which seem to be linked to El Nino too strongly. We show that by discarding that year, a regime shift in the 1990s is no longer visible. Overall, we observe a convergence of skill towards the present with correlations of about 0.4 for CFSv2 and of 0.6 for System 4 and SEAS5.
Isolated extreme habitats are ideally suited to investigate pivotal ecological processes such as niche use, local adaptation and dispersal. Extremophilic animals living in isolated habitats face the problem that dispersal is limited through the absence of suitable dispersal corridors, which in turn facilitates local adaptation. We used five rotifer isolates from extremely acidic mining lakes with a pH of below 3 as model organisms to test whether these isolates are acidotolerant or acidophilic, whether they survive and reproduce at their niche edges (here pH 2 and circum-neutral pH) and whether local adaptation has evolved. To evaluate potential dispersal limitation, we tested whether animals and their parthenogenetic eggs survive and remain reproductive or viable at unfavourable pH-conditions. All five isolates were acidophilic with a pH-optimum in the range of 4-6, which is well above the pH (< 3) of their lakes of origin. At unfavourable high pH, in four out of the five isolates parthenogenetic females produced a high number of non-viable eggs. Females and eggs produced at favourable pH (4) remained vital at an otherwise unfavourable pH of 7, indicating that for dispersal no acidic dispersal corridors are necessary. Common garden experiments revealed no clear evidence for local adaptation in any of the five isolates. Despite their acidophilic nature, all five isolates can potentially disperse via circum-neutral water bodies as long as their residence time is short, suggesting a broader dispersal niche than their realized niche. Local adaptation might have been hampered by the low population sizes of the rotifers in their isolated habitat and the short time span the mining lakes have existed.
Millennial-scale Dansgaard Oeschger (DO) variability at northern high latitudes has influenced climatic and environmental conditions in the Mediterranean during the last glacial period. There is evidence that the hemispheric transmission of the DO variability occurred at the end of DO event 25; however, the exact timing and the trigger that activated the environmental response in the Mediterranean remains incompletely understood. Here, we provide evidence that the clear millennial-scale teleconnection between Greenland and the Mediterranean started at similar to 111.4 ka BP and was initiated by a sub-millennial scale cooling in Greenland (GI-25b). High-resolution sediment proxies and the pollen record of Lago Grande di Monticchio (MON), Italy, reflect climatic instability during the last millennium of the last interglacial, which was characterised by a first and short cooling episode (MON 1) at 111.44 +/- 0.69 ka BP, coinciding with the Greenland cold sub-event GI-25b in duration and timing (within dating uncertainties). MON and Greenland (NorthGRIP ice core) also agree in recording a subsequent warm rebound phase that abruptly culminated in the stadial MON 2/GS-25, marking the transition into the last glacial period. Our results show that the GI-25b triggered an early environmental response at MON to centennial-scale climate change in Greenland as a prelude to the millennial-scale teleconnection that was maintained during the glacial period.
The Olorgesailie Drilling Project and the related Hominin Sites and Paleolakes Drilling Project in East Africa were initiated to test hypotheses and models linking environmental change to hominin evolution by drilling lake basin sediments adjacent to important archeological and paleoanthropological sites. Drill core OL012-1A recovered 139 m of sedimentary and volcaniclastic strata from the Koora paleolake basin, southern Kenya Rift, providing the opportunity to compare paleoenvironmental influences over the past million years with the parallel record exposed at the nearby Olorgesailie archeological site. To refine our ability to link core-to-outcrop paleoenvironmental records, we institute here a methodological framework for deriving a robust age model for the complex lithostratigraphy of OL012-1A. Firstly, chronostratigraphic control points for the core were established based on 4 Ar/39Ar ages from intercalated tephra deposits and a basal trachyte flow, as well as the stratigraphic position of the Brunhes-Matuyama geomagnetic reversal. This dataset was combined with the position and duration of paleosols, and analyzed using a new Bayesian algorithm for high-resolution age-depth modeling of hiatus-bearing stratigraphic sections. This model addresses three important aspects relevant to highly dynamic, nonlinear depositional environments: 1) correcting for variable rates of deposition, 2) accommodating hiatuses, and 3) quantifying realistic age uncertainty with centimetric resolution. Our method is applicable to typical depositional systems in extensional rifts as well as to drill cores from other dynamic terrestrial or aquatic environments. We use the core age model and lithostratigraphy to examine the inter connectivity of the Koora Basin to adjacent areas and sources of volcanism. (C) 2019 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Thermokarst results from the thawing of ice-rich permafrost and alters the biogeochemical cycling in the Arctic by reworking soil material and redistributing soil organic carbon (SOC) and total nitrogen (TN) along uplands, hillslopes, and lowlands. Understanding the impact of this redistribution is key to better estimating the storage of SOC in permafrost terrains. However, there are insufficient studies quantifying long-term impacts of thaw processes on the distribution of SOC and TN along hillslopes. We address this issue by providing estimates of SOC and TN stocks along the hillslopes of three valleys located on Herschel Island (Yukon, Canada), and by discussing the impact of hillslope thermokarst on the variability of SOC and TN stocks. We found that the average SOC and TN 0-100 cm stocks in the valleys were 26.4 +/- 8.9 kg C m(-2) and 2.1 +/- 0.6 kg N m(-2). We highlight the strong variability in the soils physical and geochemical properties within hillslope positions. High SOC stocks were found at the summits, essentially due to burial of organic matter by cryoturbation, and at the toeslopes due to impeded drainage which favored peat formation and SOC accumulation. The average carbon-to-nitrogen ratio in the valleys was 12.9, ranging from 9.7 to 18.9, and was significantly higher at the summits compared to the backslopes and footslopes (p < 0.05), suggesting a degradation of SOC downhill. Carbon and nitrogen contents and stocks were significantly lower on 16% of the sites that were previously affected by hillslope thermokarst (p < 0.05). Our results showed that lateral redistribution of SOC and TN due to hillslope thermokarst has a strong impact on the SOC storage in ice-rich permafrost terrains.
There is a shortage of sediment-routing monitoring worldwide, despite its relevance to environmental processes. In drylands, where water resources are more vulnerable to the sediment dynamics, this flaw is even more harmful. In the semi-arid Caatinga biome in the North-east of Brazil, rivers are almost all intermittent and hydro-sedimentological monitoring is scarce. In the biome, water supply derives from thousands of surface reservoirs, whose water availability is liable to be reduced by siltation and sediment-related pollution. The goal of this research was to evaluate the potential of multi-temporal high-resolution satellite imagery (RapidEye) to assess the suspended sediment concentration (SSC) in the medium-sized intermittent Jaguaribe River, Brazil, during a 5-year period. We validated 15 one-, two- and three-band indices for SSC estimation based on RapidEye spectral bands deduced in the context of the present investigation and nine indices proposed in the literature for other optical sensors, by comparing them with in-situ concentration data. The in-situ SSC data ranged from 67 mg.L-1 to 230 mg.L-1. We concluded that RapidEye images can assess moderate SSC of intermittent rivers, even when their discharge is low. The RapidEye indices performed better than those from literature. The spectral band that best represented SSC was the near infrared, whose performance improved when associated with the green band. This conclusion agrees with literature findings for diverse sedimentological contexts. The three-band spectral indices performed worse than those with only one or two spectral bands, showing that the use of a third band did not enhance the model ability. Besides, we show that the hydrological characteristics of semi-arid intermittent rivers generate difficulties to monitor SSC using optical satellite remote sensing, such as time-concentrated sediment yield; and its association with recent rainfall events and, therefore, with cloudy sky.
A wide variety of processes controls the time of occurrence, duration, extent, and severity of river floods. Classifying flood events by their causative processes may assist in enhancing the accuracy of local and regional flood frequency estimates and support the detection and interpretation of any changes in flood occurrence and magnitudes. This paper provides a critical review of existing causative classifications of instrumental and preinstrumental series of flood events, discusses their validity and applications, and identifies opportunities for moving toward more comprehensive approaches. So far no unified definition of causative mechanisms of flood events exists. Existing frameworks for classification of instrumental and preinstrumental series of flood events adopt different perspectives: hydroclimatic (large-scale circulation patterns and atmospheric state at the time of the event), hydrological (catchment scale precipitation patterns and antecedent catchment state), and hydrograph-based (indirectly considering generating mechanisms through their effects on hydrograph characteristics). All of these approaches intend to capture the flood generating mechanisms and are useful for characterizing the flood processes at various spatial and temporal scales. However, uncertainty analyses with respect to indicators, classification methods, and data to assess the robustness of the classification are rarely performed which limits the transferability across different geographic regions. It is argued that more rigorous testing is needed. There are opportunities for extending classification methods to include indicators of space-time dynamics of rainfall, antecedent wetness, and routing effects, which will make the classification schemes even more useful for understanding and estimating floods. This article is categorized under: Science of Water > Water Extremes Science of Water > Hydrological Processes Science of Water > Methods
The 2015 Paris Agreement (PA) has been widely hailed as a diplomatic triumph and a breakthrough in global climate cooperation. However, it is commonly accepted that the PA's collective goal—keeping global warming “well below” 2°C above preindustrial levels—remains ambitious. Making matters even more challenging, in 2017, global CO2 emissions resumed growth after 3 years of near standstill. In 2018, this growth accelerated. It is therefore extremely important that the PA's institutional architecture meet expectations concerning its ability to induce member countries to promise and deliver emissions reductions. This study offers a review of the rapidly growing literature on the PA, to assess its strengths and weaknesses, its significance, and its prospects. We focus on evaluations of its institutional structure and its ability to induce member countries to implement policies. We frame the issues as a trilemma: the challenge of simultaneously satisfying all three main conditions for effectiveness—broad participation, deep commitments, and satisfactory compliance rates. Based on our review, we conclude that the key challenge for the PA will likely be to facilitate sufficiently fast ratcheting‐up of nationally determined contributions, while keeping compliance rates high.
Flood risk perceptions and the willingness to pay for flood insurance in the Veneto region of Italy
(2019)
The floodplain of the Veneto region (north-east Italy) is one of the most inhabited and economically competitive urban landscapes in Europe. Moreover, recent flood events have caused millions of Euros in damage across the region. Due to the combined influence of climate change and socio-economic development, flood impacts are expected to grow. Therefore, it is important for all flood-prone individuals to actively manage and limit flood risk through property-level flood risk management as part of an integrated flood risk management strategy. This is in line with the calls for wider community engagement in risk management in the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction and the Sustainable Development Goals. Therefore, an online-survey of Veneto region residents was conducted asking questions regarding flood risk perceptions, preparedness, and preferences towards flood insurance via self-stated willingness to pay (WTP). Our analysis provides an initial indication that while flood risk knowledge is high, it may not be sufficient to encourage proactive risk management. From the WTP values provided people seem reluctant to buy insurance. However, many respondents expressed that a compulsory insurance system may be acceptable. In such a scheme the estimated insurance premium could fall to between (sic)26 and (sic)42 per year, as compared to, potentially, (sic)800 under risk-based premiums, which falls within the majority of WTP estimates provided ((sic)0-(sic)250). Overall, we identify areas of future research that are critical for the better design of risk management policies, supporting the insurance companies in risk management and for recommendations regarding property-level risk management.
Frequent and intense rainfall events demand innovative techniques to better predict the extreme rainfall dynamics. This task requires essentially the assessment of the basic types of atmospheric processes that trigger extreme rainfall, and then to examine the differences between those processes, which may help to identify key patterns to improve predictive algorithms. We employ tools from network theory to compare the spatial features of extreme rainfall over the Japanese archipelago and surrounding areas caused by two atmospheric processes: the Baiu front, which occurs mainly in June and July (JJ), and the tropical storms from August to November (ASON). We infer from complex networks of satellite-derived rainfall data, which are based on the nonlinear correlation measure of event synchronization. We compare the spatial scales involved in both systems and identify different regions which receive rainfall due to the large spatial scale of the Baiu and tropical storm systems. We observed that the spatial scales involved in the Baiu driven rainfall extremes, including the synoptic processes behind the frontal development, are larger than tropical storms, which even have long tracks during extratropical transitions. We further delineate regions of coherent rainfall during the two seasons based on network communities, identifying the horizontal (east-west) rainfall bands during JJ over the Japanese archipelago, while during ASON these bands align with the island arc of Japan.