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Towards the assimilation of tree-ring-width records using ensemble Kalman filtering techniques
(2015)
This paper investigates the applicability of the Vaganov–Shashkin–Lite (VSL) forward model for tree-ring-width chronologies as observation operator within a proxy data assimilation (DA) setting. Based on the principle of limiting factors, VSL combines temperature and moisture time series in a nonlinear fashion to obtain simulated TRW chronologies. When used as observation operator, this modelling approach implies three compounding, challenging features: (1) time averaging, (2) “switching recording” of 2 variables and (3) bounded response windows leading to “thresholded response”. We generate pseudo-TRW observations from a chaotic 2-scale dynamical system, used as a cartoon of the atmosphere-land system, and attempt to assimilate them via ensemble Kalman filtering techniques. Results within our simplified setting reveal that VSL’s nonlinearities may lead to considerable loss of assimilation skill, as compared to the utilization of a time-averaged (TA) linear observation operator. In order to understand this undesired effect, we embed VSL’s formulation into the framework of fuzzy logic (FL) theory, which thereby exposes multiple representations of the principle of limiting factors. DA experiments employing three alternative growth rate functions disclose a strong link between the lack of smoothness of the growth rate function and the loss of optimality in the estimate of the TA state. Accordingly, VSL’s performance as observation operator can be enhanced by resorting to smoother FL representations of the principle of limiting factors. This finding fosters new interpretations of tree-ring-growth limitation processes.
The role of knowledge in the policy process remains a central theoretical puzzle in policy analysis and political science. This article argues that an important yet missing piece of this puzzle is the systematic exploration of the political use of policy knowledge. While much of the recent debate has focused on the question of how the substantive use of knowledge can improve the quality of policy choices, our understanding of the political use of knowledge and its effects in the policy process has remained deficient in key respects. A revised conceptualization of the political use of knowledge is introduced that emphasizes how conflicting knowledge can be used to contest given structures of policy authority. This allows the analysis to differentiate between knowledge creep and knowledge shifts as two distinct types of knowledge effects in the policy process. While knowledge creep is associated with incremental policy change within existing policy structures, knowledge shifts are linked to more fundamental policy change in situations when the structures of policy authority undergo some level of transformation. The article concludes by identifying characteristics of the administrative structure of policy systems or sectors that make knowledge shifts more or less likely.
Background
The flowering plant Primula veris is a common spring blooming perennial that is widely cultivated throughout Europe. This species is an established model system in the study of the genetics, evolution, and ecology of heterostylous floral polymorphisms. Despite the long history of research focused on this and related species, the continued development of this system has been restricted due the absence of genomic and transcriptomic resources.
Results
We present here a de novo draft genome assembly of P. veris covering 301.8 Mb, or approximately 63% of the estimated 479.22 Mb genome, with an N50 contig size of 9.5 Kb, an N50 scaffold size of 164 Kb, and containing an estimated 19,507 genes. The results of a RADseq bulk segregant analysis allow for the confident identification of four genome scaffolds that are linked to the P. veris S-locus. RNAseq data from both P. veris and the closely related species P. vulgaris allow for the characterization of 113 candidate heterostyly genes that show significant floral morph-specific differential expression. One candidate gene of particular interest is a duplicated GLOBOSA homolog that may be unique to Primula (PveGLO2), and is completely silenced in L-morph flowers.
Conclusions
The P. veris genome represents the first genome assembled from a heterostylous species, and thus provides an immensely important resource for future studies focused on the evolution and genetic dissection of heterostyly. As the first genome assembled from the Primulaceae, the P. veris genome will also facilitate the expanded application of phylogenomic methods in this diverse family and the eudicots as a whole.
GEOMAGIA50.v3
(2015)
Background: GEOMAGIA50.v3 for sediments is a comprehensive online database providing access to published paleomagnetic, rock magnetic, and chronological data obtained from lake and marine sediments deposited over the past 50 ka. Its objective is to catalogue data that will improve our understanding of changes in the geomagnetic field, physical environments, and climate.
Findings: GEOMAGIA50.v3 for sediments builds upon the structure of the pre-existing GEOMAGIA50 database for magnetic data from archeological and volcanic materials. A strong emphasis has been placed on the storage of geochronological data, and it is the first magnetic archive that includes comprehensive radiocarbon age data from sediments. The database will be updated as new sediment data become available.
Conclusions: The web-based interface for the sediment database is located at http://geomagia.gfz-potsdam.de/geomagiav3/SDquery.php. This paper is a companion to Brown et al. (Earth Planets Space doi:10.1186/s40623-015-0232-0,2015) and describes the data types, structure, and functionality of the sediment database.
Height and skeletal morphology strongly relate to life style. Parallel to the decrease in physical activity and locomotion, modern people are slimmer in skeletal proportions. In German children and adolescents, elbow breadth and particularly relative pelvic breadth (50th centile of bicristal distance divided by body height) have significantly decreased in recent years. Even more evident than the changes in pelvic morphology are the rapid changes in body height in most modern countries since the end-19th and particularly since the mid-20th century. Modern Japanese mature earlier; the age at take-off (ATO, the age at which the adolescent growth spurt starts) decreases, and they are taller at all ages. Preece-Baines modelling of six national samples of Japanese children and adolescents, surveyed between 1955 and 2000, shows that this gain in height is largely an adolescent trend, whereas height at take-off (HTO) increased by less than 3 cm since 1955; adolescent growth (height gain between ATO and adult age) increased by 6 cm. The effect of globalization on the modern post-war Japanese society ("community effect in height") on adolescent growth is discussed.
State-dependent foraging
(2015)
Parental care often produces a trade-off between meeting nutritional demands of offspring and the duties of offspring protection, especially in altricial species. Parents have to leave their young unattended for foraging trips, during which nestlings are exposed to predators. We investigated how rodent mothers of altricial young respond to risk of nest predation in their foraging decisions. We studied foraging behavior of lactating bank voles (Myodes glareolus) exposed to a nest predator, the common shrew (Sorex araneus). We conducted the experiment in summer (high resource provisioning for both species) and autumn (less food available) in 12 replicates with fully crossed factors “shrew presence” and “season.” We monitored use of feeding stations near and far from the nest as measurement of foraging activity and strategic foraging behavior. Vole mothers adapted their strategies to shrew presence and optimized their foraging behavior according to seasonal constraints, resulting in an interaction of treatment and season. In summer, shrew presence reduced food intake from feeding stations, while it enhanced intake in autumn. Shrew presence decreased the number of visited feeding stations in autumn and concentrated mother’s foraging efforts to fewer stations. Independent of shrew presence or season, mothers foraged more in patches further away from the nest than near the nest. Results indicate that females are not investing in nest guarding but try to avoid the accumulation of olfactory cues near the nest leading a predator to the young. Additionally, our study shows how foraging strategies and nest attendance are influenced by seasonal food provision.
For a long time, the analysis of ancient human DNA represented one of the most controversial disciplines in an already controversial field of research. Scepticism in this field was only matched by the long-lasting controversy over the authenticity of ancient pathogen DNA. This ambiguous view on ancient human DNA had a dichotomous root. On the one hand, the interest in ancient human DNA is great because such studies touch on the history and evolution of our own species. On the other hand, because these studies are dealing with samples from our own species, results are easily compromised by contamination of the experiments with modern human DNA, which is ubiquitous in the environment. Consequently, some of the most disputed studies published - apart maybe from early reports on million year old dinosaur or amber DNA - reported DNA analyses from human subfossil remains. However, the development of so-called next- or second-generation sequencing (SGS) in 2005 and the technological advances associated with it have generated new confidence in the genetic study of ancient human remains. The ability to sequence shorter DNA fragments than with PCR amplification coupled to traditional Sanger sequencing, along with very high sequencing throughput have both reduced the risk of sequencing modern contamination and provided tools to evaluate the authenticity of DNA sequence data. The field is now rapidly developing, providing unprecedented insights into the evolution of our own species and past human population dynamics as well as the evolution and history of human pathogens and epidemics. Here, we review how recent technological improvements have rapidly transformed ancient human DNA research from a highly controversial subject to a central component of modern anthropological research. We also discuss potential future directions of ancient human DNA research.
The Net Reclassification Improvement (NRI) has become a popular metric for evaluating improvement in disease prediction models through the past years. The concept is relatively straightforward but usage and interpretation has been different across studies. While no thresholds exist for evaluating the degree of improvement, many studies have relied solely on the significance of the NRI estimate. However, recent studies recommend that statistical testing with the NRI should be avoided. We propose using confidence ellipses around the estimated values of event and non-event NRIs which might provide the best measure of variability around the point estimates. Our developments are illustrated using practical examples from EPIC-Potsdam study.
Background: Medical training is very demanding and associated with a high prevalence of psychological distress. Compared to the general population, medical students are at a greater risk of developing a psychological disorder. Various attempts of stress management training in medical school have achieved positive results on minimizing psychological distress; however, there are often limitations. Therefore, the use of a rigorous scientific method is needed. The present study protocol describes a randomized controlled trial to examine the effectiveness of a specifically developed mindfulness-based stress prevention training for medical students that includes selected elements of cognitive behavioral strategies (MediMind).
Methods/Design: This study protocol presents a prospective randomized controlled trial, involving four assessment time points: baseline, post-intervention, one-year follow-up and five-year follow-up. The aims include evaluating the effect on stress, coping, psychological morbidity and personality traits with validated measures. Participants are allocated randomly to one of three conditions: MediMind, Autogenic Training or control group. Eligible participants are medical or dental students in the second or eighth semester of a German university. They form a population of approximately 420 students in each academic term. A final total sample size of 126 (at five-year follow-up) is targeted. The trainings (MediMind and Autogenic Training) comprise five weekly sessions lasting 90 minutes each. MediMind will be offered to participants of the control group once the five-year follow-up is completed. The allotment is randomized with a stratified allocation ratio by course of studies, semester, and gender. After descriptive statistics have been evaluated, inferential statistical analysis will be carried out with a repeated measures ANOVA-design with interactions between time and group. Effect sizes will be calculated using partial η-square values.
Discussion: Potential limitations of this study are voluntary participation and the risk of attrition, especially concerning participants that are allocated to the control group. Strengths are the study design, namely random allocation, follow-up assessment, the use of control groups and inclusion of participants at different stages of medical training with the possibility of differential analysis.
A flexible approach to assess fluorescence decay functions in complex energy transfer systems
(2015)
Background: Time-correlated Forster resonance energy transfer (FRET) probes molecular distances with greater accuracy than intensity-based calculation of FRET efficiency and provides a powerful tool to study biomolecular structure and dynamics. Moreover, time-correlated photon count measurements bear additional information on the variety of donor surroundings allowing more detailed differentiation between distinct structural geometries which are typically inaccessible to general fitting solutions.
Results: Here we develop a new approach based on Monte Carlo simulations of time-correlated FRET events to estimate the time-correlated single photon counts (TCSPC) histograms in complex systems. This simulation solution assesses the full statistics of time-correlated photon counts and distance distributions of fluorescently labeled biomolecules. The simulations are consistent with the theoretical predictions of the dye behavior in FRET systems with defined dye distances and measurements of randomly distributed dye solutions. We validate the simulation results using a highly heterogeneous aggregation system and explore the conditions to use this tool in complex systems.
Conclusion: This approach is powerful in distinguishing distance distributions in a wide variety of experimental setups, thus providing a versatile tool to accurately distinguish between different structural assemblies in highly complex systems.