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Climate change and its impacts already pose considerable challenges for societies that will further increase with global warming (IPCC, 2014a, b). Uncertainties of the climatic response to greenhouse gas emissions include the potential passing of large-scale tipping points (e.g. Lenton et al., 2008; Levermann et al., 2012; Schellnhuber, 2010) and changes in extreme meteorological events (Field et al., 2012) with complex impacts on societies (Hallegatte et al., 2013). Thus climate change mitigation is considered a necessary societal response for avoiding uncontrollable impacts (Conference of the Parties, 2010). On the other hand, large-scale climate change mitigation itself implies fundamental changes in, for example, the global energy system. The associated challenges come on top of others that derive from equally important ethical imperatives like the fulfilment of increasing food demand that may draw on the same resources. For example, ensuring food security for a growing population may require an expansion of cropland, thereby reducing natural carbon sinks or the area available for bio-energy production. So far, available studies addressing this problem have relied on individual impact models, ignoring uncertainty in crop model and biome model projections. Here, we propose a probabilistic decision framework that allows for an evaluation of agricultural management and mitigation options in a multi-impact-model setting. Based on simulations generated within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP), we outline how cross-sectorally consistent multi-model impact simulations could be used to generate the information required for robust decision making.
Using an illustrative future land use pattern, we discuss the trade-off between potential gains in crop production and associated losses in natural carbon sinks in the new multiple crop-and biome-model setting. In addition, crop and water model simulations are combined to explore irrigation increases as one possible measure of agricultural intensification that could limit the expansion of cropland required in response to climate change and growing food demand. This example shows that current impact model uncertainties pose an important challenge to long-term mitigation planning and must not be ignored in long-term strategic decision making.
Liverwort Blasia pusilla L. recruits soil nitrogen-fixing cyanobacteria of genus Nostoc as symbiotic partners. In this work we compared Nostoc community composition inside the plants and in the soil around them from two distant locations in Northern Norway. STRR fingerprinting and 16S rDNA phylogeny reconstruction showed a remarkable local diversity among isolates assigned to several Nostoc clades. An extensive web of negative allelopathic interactions was recorded at an agricultural site, but not at the undisturbed natural site. The cell extracts of the cyanobacteria did not show antimicrobial activities, but four isolates were shown to be cytotoxic to human cells. The secondary metabolite profiles of the isolates were mapped by MALDI-TOF MS, and the most prominent ions were further analyzed by Q-TOF for MS/MS aided identification. Symbiotic isolates produced a great variety of small peptide-like substances, most of which lack any record in the databases. Among identified compounds we found microcystin and nodularin variants toxic to eukaryotic cells. Microcystin producing chemotypes were dominating as symbiotic recruits but not in the free-living community. In addition, we were able to identify several novel aeruginosins and banyaside-like compounds, as well as nostocyclopeptides and nosperin.
A comprehensive hydrometeorological dataset is presented spanning the period 1 January 201131 December 2014 to improve the understanding of the hydrological processes leading to flash floods and the relation between rainfall, runoff, erosion and sediment transport in a mesoscale catchment (Auzon, 116 km(2)) of the Mediterranean region. Badlands are present in the Auzon catchment and well connected to high-gradient channels of bedrock rivers which promotes the transfer of suspended solids downstream. The number of observed variables, the various sensors involved (both in situ and remote) and the space-time resolution (similar to km(2), similar to min) of this comprehensive dataset make it a unique contribution to research communities focused on hydrometeorology, surface hydrology and erosion. Given that rainfall is highly variable in space and time in this region, the observation system enables assessment of the hydrological response to rainfall fields. Indeed, (i) rainfall data are provided by rain gauges (both a research network of 21 rain gauges with a 5 min time step and an operational network of 10 rain gauges with a 5 min or 1 h time step), S-band Doppler dual-polarization radars (1 km(2), 5 min resolution), disdrometers (16 sensors working at 30 s or 1 min time step) and Micro Rain Radars (5 sensors, 100m height resolution). Additionally, during the special observation period (SOP-1) of the HyMeX (Hydrological Cycle in the Mediterranean Experiment) project, two X-band radars provided precipitation measurements at very fine spatial and temporal scales (1 ha, 5 min). (ii) Other meteorological data are taken from the operational surface weather observation stations of Meteo-France (including 2m air temperature, atmospheric pressure, 2 m relative humidity, 10m wind speed and direction, global radiation) at the hourly time resolution (six stations in the region of interest). (iii) The monitoring of surface hydrology and suspended sediment is multi-scale and based on nested catchments. Three hydrometric stations estimate water discharge at a 2-10 min time resolution. Two of these stations also measure additional physico-chemical variables (turbidity, temperature, conductivity) and water samples are collected automatically during floods, allowing further geochemical characterization of water and suspended solids. Two experimental plots monitor overland flow and erosion at 1 min time resolution on a hillslope with vineyard. A network of 11 sensors installed in the intermittent hydrographic network continuously measures water level and water temperature in headwater subcatchments (from 0.17 to 116 km(2)) at a time resolution of 2-5 min. A network of soil moisture sensors enables the continuous measurement of soil volumetric water content at 20 min time resolution at 9 sites. Additionally, concomitant observations (soil moisture measurements and stream gauging) were performed during floods between 2012 and 2014. Finally, this dataset is considered appropriate for understanding the rainfall variability in time and space at fine scales, improving areal rainfall estimations and progressing in distributed hydrological and erosion modelling.
In a recent paper, the Lefschetz number for endomorphisms (modulo trace class operators) of sequences of trace class curvature was introduced. We show that this is a well defined, canonical extension of the classical Lefschetz number and establish the homotopy invariance of this number. Moreover, we apply the results to show that the Lefschetz fixed point formula holds for geometric quasiendomorphisms of elliptic quasicomplexes.
Background: Medical training is very demanding and associated with a high prevalence of psychological distress. Compared to the general population, medical students are at a greater risk of developing a psychological disorder. Various attempts of stress management training in medical school have achieved positive results on minimizing psychological distress; however, there are often limitations. Therefore, the use of a rigorous scientific method is needed. The present study protocol describes a randomized controlled trial to examine the effectiveness of a specifically developed mindfulness-based stress prevention training for medical students that includes selected elements of cognitive behavioral strategies (MediMind).
Methods/Design: This study protocol presents a prospective randomized controlled trial, involving four assessment time points: baseline, post-intervention, one-year follow-up and five-year follow-up. The aims include evaluating the effect on stress, coping, psychological morbidity and personality traits with validated measures. Participants are allocated randomly to one of three conditions: MediMind, Autogenic Training or control group. Eligible participants are medical or dental students in the second or eighth semester of a German university. They form a population of approximately 420 students in each academic term. A final total sample size of 126 (at five-year follow-up) is targeted. The trainings (MediMind and Autogenic Training) comprise five weekly sessions lasting 90 minutes each. MediMind will be offered to participants of the control group once the five-year follow-up is completed. The allotment is randomized with a stratified allocation ratio by course of studies, semester, and gender. After descriptive statistics have been evaluated, inferential statistical analysis will be carried out with a repeated measures ANOVA-design with interactions between time and group. Effect sizes will be calculated using partial η-square values.
Discussion: Potential limitations of this study are voluntary participation and the risk of attrition, especially concerning participants that are allocated to the control group. Strengths are the study design, namely random allocation, follow-up assessment, the use of control groups and inclusion of participants at different stages of medical training with the possibility of differential analysis.
We show that self-consistent partial synchrony in globally coupled oscillatory ensembles is a general phenomenon. We analyze in detail appearance and stability properties of this state in possibly the simplest setup of a biharmonic Kuramoto-Daido phase model as well as demonstrate the effect in limit-cycle relaxational Rayleigh oscillators. Such a regime extends the notion of splay state from a uniform distribution of phases to an oscillating one. Suitable collective observables such as the Kuramoto order parameter allow detecting the presence of an inhomogeneous distribution. The characteristic and most peculiar property of self-consistent partial synchrony is the difference between the frequency of single units and that of the macroscopic field.
The unusual mix of morphological traits displayed by extinct South American native ungulates (SANUs) confounded both Charles Darwin, who first discovered them, and Richard Owen, who tried to resolve their relationships. Here we report an almost complete mitochondrial genome for the litoptern Macrauchenia. Our dated phylogenetic tree places Macrauchenia as sister to Perissodactyla, but close to the radiation of major lineages within Laurasiatheria. This position is consistent with a divergence estimate of B66Ma (95% credibility interval, 56.64-77.83 Ma) obtained for the split between Macrauchenia and other Panperissodactyla. Combined with their morphological distinctiveness, this evidence supports the positioning of Litopterna (possibly in company with other SANU groups) as a separate order within Laurasiatheria. We also show that, when using strict criteria, extinct taxa marked by deep divergence times and a lack of close living relatives may still be amenable to palaeogenomic analysis through iterative mapping against more distant relatives.
A model analysis of mechanisms for radial microtubular patterns at root hair initiation sites
(2016)
Plant cells have two main modes of growth generating anisotropic structures. Diffuse growth where whole cell walls extend in specific directions, guided by anisotropically positioned cellulose fibers, and tip growth, with inhomogeneous addition of new cell wall material at the tip of the structure. Cells are known to regulate these processes via molecular signals and the cytoskeleton. Mechanical stress has been proposed to provide an input to the positioning of the cellulose fibers via cortical microtubules in diffuse growth. In particular, a stress feedback model predicts a circumferential pattern of fibers surrounding apical tissues and growing primordia, guided by the anisotropic curvature in such tissues. In contrast, during the initiation of tip growing root hairs, a star-like radial pattern has recently been observed. Here, we use detailed finite element models to analyze how a change in mechanical properties at the root hair initiation site can lead to star-like stress patterns in order to understand whether a stress-based feedback model can also explain the microtubule patterns seen during root hair initiation. We show that two independent mechanisms, individually or combined, can be sufficient to generate radial patterns. In the first, new material is added locally at the position of the root hair. In the second, increased tension in the initiation area provides a mechanism. Finally, we describe how a molecular model of Rho-of-plant (ROP) GTPases activation driven by auxin can position a patch of activated ROP protein basally along a 2D root epidermal cell plasma membrane, paving the way for models where mechanical and molecular mechanisms cooperate in the initial placement and outgrowth of root hairs.
Bacteria respond to changing environmental conditions by switching the global pattern of expressed genes. In response to specific environmental stresses the cell activates several stress-specific molecules such as sigma factors. They reversibly bind the RNA polymerase to form the so-called holoenzyme and direct it towards the appropriate stress response genes. In exponentially growing E. coli cells, the majority of the transcriptional activity is carried out by the housekeeping sigma factor, while stress responses are often under the control of alternative sigma factors. Different sigma factors compete for binding to a limited pool of RNA polymerase (RNAP) core enzymes, providing a mechanism for cross talk between genes or gene classes via the sharing of expression machinery. To quantitatively analyze the contribution of sigma factor competition to global changes in gene expression, we develop a thermodynamic model that describes binding between sigma factors and core RNAP at equilibrium, transcription, non-specific binding to DNA and the modulation of the availability of the molecular components.
Association of housekeeping sigma factor to RNAP is generally favored by its abundance and higher binding affinity to the core. In order to promote transcription by alternative sigma subunits, the bacterial cell modulates the transcriptional efficiency in a reversible manner through several strategies such as anti-sigma factors, 6S RNA and generally any kind of transcriptional regulators (e.g. activators or inhibitors). By shifting the outcome of sigma factor competition for the core, these modulators bias the transcriptional program of the cell. The model is validated by comparison with in vitro competition experiments, with which excellent agreement is found. We observe that transcription is affected via the modulation of the concentrations of the different types of holoenzymes, so saturated promoters are only weakly affected by sigma factor competition. However, in case of overlapping promoters or promoters recognized by two types of sigma factors, we find that even saturated promoters are strongly affected.
Active transcription effectively lowers the affinity between the sigma factor driving it and the core RNAP, resulting in complex cross talk effects and raising the question of how their in vitro measure is relevant in the cell. We also estimate that sigma factor competition is not strongly affected by non-specific binding of core RNAPs, sigma factors, and holoenzymes to DNA. Finally, we analyze the role of increased core RNAP availability upon the shut-down of ribosomal RNA transcription during stringent response. We find that passive up-regulation of alternative sigma-dependent transcription is not only possible, but also displays hypersensitivity based on the sigma factor competition. Our theoretical analysis thus provides support for a significant role of passive control during that global switch of the gene expression program and gives new insights into RNAP partitioning in the cell.
The knowledge of the contemporary in situ stress state is a key issue for safe and sustainable subsurface engineering. However, information on the orientation and magnitudes of the stress state is limited and often not available for the areas of interest. Therefore 3-D geomechanical-numerical modelling is used to estimate the in situ stress state and the distance of faults from failure for application in subsurface engineering. The main challenge in this approach is to bridge the gap in scale between the widely scattered data used for calibration of the model and the high resolution in the target area required for the application. We present a multi-stage 3-D geomechanical-numerical approach which provides a state-of-the-art model of the stress field for a reservoir-scale area from widely scattered data records. Therefore, we first use a large-scale regional model which is calibrated by available stress data and provides the full 3-D stress tensor at discrete points in the entire model volume. The modelled stress state is used subsequently for the calibration of a smaller-scale model located within the large-scale model in an area without any observed stress data records. We exemplify this approach with two-stages for the area around Munich in the German Molasse Basin. As an example of application, we estimate the scalar values for slip tendency and fracture potential from the model results as measures for the criticality of fault reactivation in the reservoir-scale model. The modelling results show that variations due to uncertainties in the input data are mainly introduced by the uncertain material properties and missing S-Hmax magnitude estimates needed for a more reliable model calibration. This leads to the conclusion that at this stage the model's reliability depends only on the amount and quality of available stress information rather than on the modelling technique itself or on local details of the model geometry. Any improvements in modelling and increases in model reliability can only be achieved using more high-quality data for calibration.