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The displacement histories of the San Jacinto and southernmost San Andreas fault zones are constrained by offset data with ages in the range of 5 Ma to 5 ka. Apparent discrepancies between long- and short-term average displacement rates can be reconciled with a time-variable rate model. In this model, the displacement rate on the San Andreas decelerated from similar to35 mm/yr at 1.5 Ma to as low as 9 +/- 4 mm/yr by 90 ka. Over this same time period, the rate on the San Jacinto fault zone accelerated from an initial value of zero to a rate of 26 +/- 4 mm/yr. The data also imply that the rate of the San Andreas fault accelerated since ca. 90 ka, from similar to9 mm/yr to the modern rate of 27 +/- 4 mm/yr, whereas the San Jacinto decelerated from 26 +/- 4 mm/yr to the modern rate of 8 +/- 4 mm/yr. The time scale of these changes is significantly longer than the earthquake cycle, but shorter than time scales characteristic of lithospheric-scalle dynamics. The emergence of the San Jacinto fault zone ca. 1.5 Ma coincided with the development of a major restraining bend in the San Andreas fault zone, suggesting that the formation of new subparallell faults could be driven by conditions that inhibit displacement on preexisting faults
We present two case studies that demonstrate how a common evaluation methodology can be used to assess the reliability of regional climate model simulations from different fields of research. In Case I, we focused on the agricultural yield loss risk for maize in Northeastern Brazil during a drought linked to an El-Nino event. In Case II, the present-day regional climatic conditions in Europe for a 10-year period are simulated. To comprehensively evaluate the model results for both kinds of investigations, we developed a general methodology. On its basis, we elaborated and implemented modules to assess the quality of model results using both advanced visualization techniques and statistical algorithms. Besides univariate approaches for individual near-surface parameters, we used multivariate statistics to investigate multiple near-surface parameters of interest together. For the latter case, we defined generalized quality measures to quantify the model's accuracy. Furthermore, we elaborated a diagnosis tool applicable for atmospheric variables to assess the model's accuracy in representing the physical processes above the surface under various aspects. By means of this evaluation approach, it could be demonstrated in Case Study I that the accuracy of the applied regional climate model resides at the same level as that we found for another regional model and a global model. Excessive precipitation during the rainy season in coastal regions could be identified as a major contribution leading to this result. In Case Study II, we also identified the accuracy of the investigated mean characteristics for near- surface temperature and precipitation to be comparable to another regional model. In this case, an artificial modulation of the used initial and boundary data during preprocessing could be identified as the major source of error in the simulation. Altogether, the achieved results for the presented investigations indicate the potential of our methodology to be applied as a common test bed to different fields of research in regional climate modeling
The Niederschlema-Alberoda uranium deposit, in the Erzgebirge region of Germany, contains an uncommon assemblage of metallic minerals, in particular selenides, sulfides, arsenides, tellurides, and native elements, in addition to uraninite and coffinite. The complex mineralogy resulted from the superposition of several mineralizing events over the time interval from the Permian to the Cretaceous; these events introduced and redeposited a great variety of metallic elements within the hydrothermal uranium deposit (Pb, Ag, Cu, Hg, Tl, Bi, Co, Ni, As, Sb, Se, S, Te). One of the exotic minerals is jolliffeite, an arsenoselenide with end-member composition NiAsSe, so far only known from Lake Athabasca, Saskatchewan, Canada. A single, small, anhedral grain of jolliffeite from Niederschlema-Alberoda is included and partly replaced by sulfurian eskebornite. Associated minerals comprise hematite, Ni-Co-Se-bearing lollingite, clausthalite, tiemannite, mercurian hakite-giraudite solid solutions, sulfurian berzelianite, sulfurian umangite, hessite, Ni-Co-As-bearing pyrite, and Se-rich chalcopyrite. The sulfurian jolliffeite has the empirical formula (Ni0.85Cu0.09Co0.05Fe0.02Ag0.01)Sigma(1.02)As(0.98)(Se0.77S0.23)(Sigma1. 00) and differs from type jolliffeite mainly by substantial substitution of Cu (2.6-3.3 wt.%) for Ni and S (3.2-4.1 wt.%) for Se. Substantial S-for-Se substitution in jolliffeite implies extensive and probably complete miscibility between NiAsSe and its S-dominant analogue, gersdorffite-Pa3 (NiAsS). We suggest that a localized accumulation of Ni and As in the Se-(S)-bearing hydrothermal fluid gave rise to the crystallization of jolliffeite at some rare locations at a late stage of formation of the Jurassic selenide assemblage
The aim of the study is to record the occurrence of sediment deformation structures in one of the tectonically most active areas on the globe, the Tien Shan range in Central Asia and to examine the significance of the deformations as indicators of palaeoseismicity. Soft-sediment deformation structures in form of balls and pseudo-nodules are exposed in the Issyk-Kul basin, within interfingering beds of shallow lacustrine, beach and fluviatile origin. Additional deformation structures that were encountered are: a complex and chaotic folded structure, giant balls and a "pillar" structure which has not been previously reported, where marl intrudes down into coarse pebbley sand and forms pillar morphology. Liquefaction features and bedforms related to storm and breaking waves were not encountered. Neither was there evidence of turbidites. Seven field criteria for relating soft-sediment deformation to palaeoseismic triggering provide strong evidence for a seismic origin of the deformation structures. Empirical relationships between magnitude and the maximum distance from an epicenter to liquefaction sites make the active epicentral zone north of Lake Issyk- Kul, with its frequent high magnitude events, the most favorable source for the deformation structures. Luminescence dating of the sediments gives a time window of 26 +/- 2.1 to 10.5 +/- 0.7 ka BP, indicating latest Pleistocene seismic activity.(C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved
Hessite, Ag2Te, and native tellurium (?) constitute two, previously unknown tellurium species within the complex mineral assemblage at Niederschlema-Alberoda, Erzgebirge, Germany. Hessite is always intimately associated with clausthalite and has a composition close to ideal stoichiometry. The mean empirical formula is (Ag1.98Sb0.01)(1.99)(Te0.96Se0.05)(1.01). Paragenetic relations and thermodynamic data suggest that hessite crystallized in equilibrium with clausthalite, berzelianite, and tiemannite under conditions of almost identical, high fugacitities of Se-2 and Te-2, which very locally were approached in the main selenide stage of Jurassic age. Native tellurium (?) formed as replacement product of hessite. Niederschlema-Alberoda provides the first record of hessite from an uranium deposit worldwide. Hessite and native Te are the first tellurium minerals reported from the Erzgebirge metallogenic province
The results of this study clearly identify four key parameters controlling the estimation of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) in France in the framework of the Cornell-McGuire method. Results in terms of peak ground acceleration demonstrate the equally high impact, at all return periods, of the choice of truncation of the predicted ground-motion distribution (at + 2sigma) and of the choice between two different magnitude-intensity correlations. The choice of minimum magnitude (3.5/4.5) on hazard estimates can have an important impact at small return periods (<1000 years), whereas the maximum magnitude (6.5/7.0), on the other hand, is not a key parameter even at large return periods (10,000 years). This hierarchy of impacts is maintained at lower frequencies down to 5 Hz. Below 5 Hz, the choice of the maximum magnitude has a much greater impact, whereas the impact due to the choice of the minimum magnitude disappears. Moreover, variability due to catalog uncertainties is also quantified; these uncertainties that underly all hazard results can engender as high a variability as the controlling parameters. Parameter impacts, calculated at the centers of each source zone, show a linear trend with the seismicity models of the zone, demonstrating the lack of contributions coming from neighboring zones. Indeed, the region of influence that contributes to the PSHA estimate at a given site decreases with increasing return periods. The resulting overall variability in hazard estimates due to input uncertainties is quantified through a logic tree, obtained coefficients of variation vary between 10% and 20%. Until better physical models are obtained, the uncertainty on hazard estimates may be reduced by working on an appropriate magnitude-intensity correlation
The upper Eocene-lower Oligocene sediments deposited in the eastern part of the Tertiary Piedmont Basin in northern Italy provide a complete record of the unroofing of the Alpine orogenic prism during the early stages of exhumation in the Ligurian sector. From late Priabonian till late Rupelian time, the sediments in the study area were derived from two different sources, one characterised by white micas with Si<6.5 pfu and Permian Ar-40/Ar-39 ages (270 Ma), and the other characterised by white micas with S>7 pfu and Eocene-Oligocene Ar-40/Ar-39 ages (32-50 Ma). The first source is considered to be indicative of low-pressure metamorphic rocks that covered the HP rocks of the Ligurian Alps, and were completely eroded by Chattian time. From this time on, the study area started to record the first input from western Alpine sources characterised by a larger span of ages with a more frequent Eoalpine signal. Thus, sediments deposited in the eastern part of the Tertiary Piedmont Basin contain the only available evidence of rocks belonging to high crustal levels in the Alpine orogenic prism that were not affected by the Alpine overprint. These data also provide time constraints to the poorly dated first conglomerates deposited in this area. Ar-40/Ar-39 geochronology reveals a minimum age of 33 +/- 1.4 Ma for the Pianfolco Conglomerates in the type locality, and of 31.4 +/- 3.5 Ma for the Borbera Conglomerates. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved
Earthquake swarms are often assumed to result from an intrusion of fluids into the seismogenic zone, causing seismicity patterns which significantly differ from aftershock sequences. But neither the temporal evolution nor the energy release of earthquake swarms is generally well understood. Because of the lack of descriptive empirical laws, the comparison with model simulations is typically restricted to aspects of the overall behaviour such as the frequency- magnitude distribution. However, previous investigations into a large earthquake swarm which occurred in the year 2000 in Vogtland/northwest Bohemia, Central Europe, revealed some well-defined characteristics which allow a rigorous test of model assumptions. In this study, simulations are performed of a discretized fault plane embedded in a 3-D elastic half- space. Earthquakes are triggered by fluid intrusion as well as by co-seismic and post-seismic stress changes. The model is able to reproduce the main observations, such as the fractal temporal occurrence of earthquakes, embedded aftershock sequences, and a power-law increase of the average seismic moment release. All these characteristics are found to result from stress triggering, whereas fluid diffusion is manifested in the spatiotemporal spreading of the hypocentres
Seismic hazard evaluation is proposed by a methodological approach that allows the study of the influence of different modelling assumptions relative to the spatial and temporal distribution of earthquakes on the maximum values of expected intensities. In particular, we show that the estimated hazard at a fixed point is very sensitive to the assumed spatial distribution of epicentres and their estimators. As we will see, the usual approach, based on uniformly distributing the epicentres inside each seismogenic zone is likely to be biased towards lower expected intensity values. This will be made more precise later. Recall that the term "bias" means, that the expectation of the estimated quantity ( taken as a random variable on the space of statistics) is different from the expectation of the quantity itself. Instead, our approach, based on an estimator that takes into account the observed clustering of events is essentially unbiased, as shown by a Monte-Carlo simulation, and is configured on a 11011-isotropic macroseismic attenuation model which is independently estimated for each zone
The recent discovery of HP-LT parageneses in the basal unit of the Lycian nappes and in the Mesozoic cover of the Menderes massif leads us to reconsider and discuss the correlation of this region with the nearby collapsed Hellenides in the Aegean domain. Although similarities have long been pointed Out by various authors, a clear correlation has not yet been proposed and most authors insist more on differences than similarities. The Menderes massif is the eastern extension of the Aegean region but it has been less severely affected by the Aegean extension during the Oligo-Miocene. It would thus be useful to use the structure of the Menderes massif as an image of the Aegean region before a significant extension has considerably reduced its crustal thickness. But the lack of correlation between the two regions has so far hampered Such comparisons. We describe the main tectonic units and metamorphic events in the two regions and propose a correlation. We then show possible sections of the two regions before the Aegean extension and discuss the involvement of continental basement in the Hellenic accretionary complex. In our interpretation the Hellenic- Tauric accretionary complex was composed of stacked basement and cover units which underwent variable P-T histories. Those which were not exhumed early enough later followed a high-T evolution which led to partial melting in the Cyclades during post-orogenic extension. Although the Menderes massif contains a larger volume of basement units it does not show significant evidence for the Oligo-Miocene migmatites observed in the center of the Cyclades suggesting that crustal partial melting is strictly related to post-orogenic extension in this case