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Integrated flood management strategies consider property-level precautionary measures as a vital part. Whereas this is a well-researched topic for residents, little is known about the adaptive behaviour of flood-prone companies although they often settle on the ground floor of buildings and are thus among the first affected by flooding. This pilot study analyses flood responses of 64 businesses in a district of the city of Dresden, Germany that experienced major flooding in 2002 and 2013. Using standardised survey data and accompanying qualitative interviews, the analyses revealed that the largest driver of adaptive behaviour is experiencing flood events. Intangible factors such as tradition and a sense of community play a role for the decision to stay in the area, while lacking ownership might hamper property-level adaptation. Further research is also needed to understand the role of insurance and governmental aid for recovery and adaptation of businesses.
Integrated flood management strategies consider property-level precautionary measures as a vital part. Whereas this is a well-researched topic for residents, little is known about the adaptive behaviour of flood-prone companies although they often settle on the ground floor of buildings and are thus among the first affected by flooding. This pilot study analyses flood responses of 64 businesses in a district of the city of Dresden, Germany that experienced major flooding in 2002 and 2013. Using standardised survey data and accompanying qualitative interviews, the analyses revealed that the largest driver of adaptive behaviour is experiencing flood events. Intangible factors such as tradition and a sense of community play a role for the decision to stay in the area, while lacking ownership might hamper property-level adaptation. Further research is also needed to understand the role of insurance and governmental aid for recovery and adaptation of businesses.
The occurrence of refugia beyond the arctic treeline and genetic adaptation therein play a crucial role of largely unknown effect size. While refugia have potential for rapidly colonizing the tundra under global warming, the taxa may be maladapted to the new environmental conditions. Understanding the genetic composition and age of refugia is thus crucial for predicting any migration response.
Here, we genotype 194 larch individuals from an similar to 1.8 km(2)area in northcentral Siberia on the southern Taimyr Peninsula by applying an assay of 16 nuclear microsatellite markers. For estimating the age of clonal individuals, we counted tree rings at sections along branches to establish a lateral growth rate that was then combined with geographic distance.
Findings reveal that the predominant reproduction type is clonal (58.76%) by short distance spreading of ramets. One outlier of clones 1 km apart could have been dispersed by reindeer. In clonal groups and within individuals, we find that somatic mutations accumulate with geographic distance. Clonal groups of two or more individuals are observed. Clonal age estimates regularly suggest individuals as old as 2,200 years, which coincides with a major environmental change that forced a treeline retreat in the region.
We conclude that individuals with clonal growth mode were naturally selected as it lowers the likely risk of extinction under a harsh environment. We discuss this legacy from the past that might now be a maladaptation and hinder expansion under currently strongly increasing temperatures.
The importance of cryptic diversity in rotifers is well understood regarding its ecological consequences, but there remains an in depth comprehension of the underlying molecular mechanisms and forces driving speciation. Temperature has been found several times to affect species spatio-temporal distribution and organisms’ performance, but we lack information on the mechanisms that provide thermal tolerance to rotifers. High cryptic diversity was found recently in the freshwater rotifer “Brachionus calyciflorus”, showing that the complex comprises at least four species: B. calyciflorus sensu stricto (s.s.), B. fernandoi, B. dorcas, and B. elevatus. The temporal succession among species which have been observed in sympatry led to the idea that temperature might play a crucial role in species differentiation.
The central aim of this study was to unravel differences in thermal tolerance between species of the former B. calyciflorus species complex by comparing phenotypic and gene expression responses. More specifically, I used the critical maximum temperature as a proxy for inter-species differences in heat-tolerance; this was modeled as a bi-dimensional phenotypic trait taking into consideration the intention and the duration of heat stress. Significant differences on heat-tolerance between species were detected, with B. calyciflorus s.s. being able to tolerate higher temperatures than B. fernandoi.
Based on evidence of within species neutral genetic variation, I further examined adaptive genetic variability within two different mtDNA lineages of the heat tolerant B. calyciflorus s.s. to identify SNPs and genes under selection that might reflect their adaptive history. These analyses did not reveal adaptive genetic variation related to heat, however, they show putatively adaptive genetic variation which may reflect local adaptation. Functional enrichment of putatively positively selected genes revealed signals of adaptation in genes related to “lipid metabolism”, “xenobiotics biodegradation and metabolism” and “sensory system”, comprising candidate genes which can be utilized in studies on local adaptation. An absence of genetically-based differences in thermal adaptation between the two mtDNA lineages, together with our knowledge that B. calyciflorus s.s. can withstand a broad range of temperatures, led to the idea to further investigate shared transcriptomic responses to long-term exposure to high and low temperatures regimes. With this, I identified candidate genes that are involved in the response to temperature imposed stress. Lastly, I used comparative transcriptomics to examine responses to imposed heat-stress in heat-tolerant and heat-sensitive Brachionus species. I found considerably different patterns of gene expression in the two species. Most striking are patterns of expression regarding the heat shock proteins (hsps) between the two species. In the heat-tolerant, B. calyciflorus s.s., significant up-regulation of hsps at low temperatures was indicative of a stress response at the cooler end of the temperature regimes tested here. In contrast, in the heat-sensitive B. fernandoi, hsps generally exhibited up-regulation of these genes along with rising temperatures. Overall, identification of differences in expression of genes suggests suppression of protein biosynthesis to be a mechanism to increase thermal tolerance. Observed patterns in population growth are correlated with the hsp gene expression differences, indicating that this physiological stress response is indeed related to phenotypic life history performance.
This is a publication-based dissertation comprising three original research stud-ies (one published, one submitted and one ready for submission; status March 2019). The dissertation introduces a generic computer model as a tool to investigate the behaviour and population dynamics of animals in cyclic environments. The model is further employed for analysing how migratory birds respond to various scenarios of altered food supply under global change. Here, ecological and evolutionary time-scales are considered, as well as the biological constraints and trade-offs the individual faces, which ultimately shape response dynamics at the population level. Further, the effect of fine-scale temporal patterns in re-source supply are studied, which is challenging to achieve experimentally. My findings predict population declines, altered behavioural timing and negative carry-over effects arising in migratory birds under global change. They thus stress the need for intensified research on how ecological mechanisms are affected by global change and for effective conservation measures for migratory birds. The open-source modelling software created for this dissertation can now be used for other taxa and related research questions. Overall, this thesis improves our mechanistic understanding of the impacts of global change on migratory birds as one prerequisite to comprehend ongoing global biodiversity loss. The research results are discussed in a broader ecological and scientific context in a concluding synthesis chapter.
On a planetary scale human populations need to adapt to both socio-economic and environmental problems amidst rapid global change. This holds true for coupled human-environment (socio-ecological) systems in rural and urban settings alike. Two examples are drylands and urban coasts. Such socio-ecological systems have a global distribution. Therefore, advancing the knowledge base for identifying socio-ecological adaptation needs with local vulnerability assessments alone is infeasible: The systems cover vast areas, while funding, time, and human resources for local assessments are limited. They are lacking in low an middle-income countries (LICs and MICs) in particular.
But places in a specific socio-ecological system are not only unique and complex – they also exhibit similarities. A global patchwork of local rural drylands vulnerability assessments of human populations to socio-ecological and environmental problems has already been reduced to a limited number of problem structures, which typically cause vulnerability. However, the question arises whether this is also possible in urban socio-ecological systems. The question also arises whether these typologies provide added value in research beyond global change. Finally, the methodology employed for drylands needs refining and standardizing to increase its uptake in the scientific community. In this dissertation, I set out to fill these three gaps in research.
The geographical focus in my dissertation is on LICs and MICs, which generally have lower capacities to adapt, and greater adaptation needs, regarding rapid global change. Using a spatially explicit indicator-based methodology, I combine geospatial and clustering methods to identify typical configurations of key factors in case studies causing vulnerability to human populations in two specific socio-ecological systems. Then I use statistical and analytical methods to interpret and appraise both the typical configurations and the global typologies they constitute.
First, I improve the indicator-based methodology and then reanalyze typical global problem structures of socio-ecological drylands vulnerability with seven indicator datasets. The reanalysis confirms the key tenets and produces a more realistic and nuanced typology of eight spatially explicit problem structures, or vulnerability profiles: Two new profiles with typically high natural resource endowment emerge, in which overpopulation has led to medium or high soil erosion. Second, I determine whether the new drylands typology and its socio-ecological vulnerability concept advance a thematically linked scientific debate in human security studies: what drives violent conflict in drylands? The typology is a much better predictor for conflict distribution and incidence in drylands than regression models typically used in peace research. Third, I analyze global problem structures typically causing vulnerability in an urban socio-ecological system - the rapidly urbanizing coastal fringe (RUCF) – with eleven indicator datasets. The RUCF also shows a robust typology, and its seven profiles show huge asymmetries in vulnerability and adaptive capacity. The fastest population increase, lowest income, most ineffective governments, most prevalent poverty, and lowest adaptive capacity are all typically stacked in two profiles in LICs. This shows that beyond local case studies tropical cyclones and/or coastal flooding are neither stalling rapid population growth, nor urban expansion, in the RUCF. I propose entry points for scaling up successful vulnerability reduction strategies in coastal cities within the same vulnerability profile.
This dissertation shows that patchworks of local vulnerability assessments can be generalized to structure global socio-ecological vulnerabilities in both rural and urban socio-ecological systems according to typical problems. In terms of climate-related extreme events in the RUCF, conflicting problem structures and means to deal with them are threatening to widen the development gap between LICs and high-income countries unless successful vulnerability reduction measures are comprehensively scaled up. The explanatory power for human security in drylands warrants further applications of the methodology beyond global environmental change research in the future. Thus, analyzing spatially explicit global typologies of socio-ecological vulnerability is a useful complement to local assessments: The typologies provide entry points for where to consider which generic measures to reduce typical problem structures – including the countless places without local assessments. This can save limited time and financial resources for adaptation under rapid global change.
Private precaution is an important component in contemporary flood risk management and climate adaptation. However, quantitative knowledge about vulnerability reduction via private precautionary measures is scarce and their effects are hardly considered in loss modeling and risk assessments. However, this is a prerequisite to enable temporally dynamic flood damage and risk modeling, and thus the evaluation of risk management and adaptation strategies. To quantify the average reduction in vulnerability of residential buildings via private precaution empirical vulnerability data (n = 948) is used. Households with and without precautionary measures undertaken before the flood event are classified into treatment and nontreatment groups and matched. Postmatching regression is used to quantify the treatment effect. Additionally, we test state-of-the-art flood loss models regarding their capability to capture this difference in vulnerability. The estimated average treatment effect of implementing private precaution is between 11 and 15 thousand EUR per household, confirming the significant effectiveness of private precautionary measures in reducing flood vulnerability. From all tested flood loss models, the expert Bayesian network-based model BN-FLEMOps and the rule-based loss model FLEMOps perform best in capturing the difference in vulnerability due to private precaution. Thus, the use of such loss models is suggested for flood risk assessments to effectively support evaluations and decision making for adaptable flood risk management.
Epigenetic modifications, of which DNA methylation is the most stable, are a mechanism conveying environmental information to subsequent generations via parental germ lines. The paternal contribution to adaptive processes in the offspring might be crucial, but has been widely neglected in comparison to the maternal one. To address the paternal impact on the offspring’s adaptability to changes in diet composition, we investigated if low protein diet (LPD) in F0 males caused epigenetic alterations in their subsequently sired sons. We therefore fed F0 male Wild guinea pigs with a diet lowered in protein content (LPD) and investigated DNA methylation in sons sired before and after their father’s LPD treatment in both, liver and testis tissues. Our results point to a ‘heritable epigenetic response’ of the sons to the fathers’ dietary change. Because we detected methylation changes also in the testis tissue, they are likely to be transmitted to the F2 generation. Gene-network analyses of differentially methylated genes in liver identified main metabolic pathways indicating a metabolic reprogramming (‘metabolic shift’). Epigenetic mechanisms, allowing an immediate and inherited adaptation may thus be important for the survival of species in the context of a persistently changing environment, such as climate change.
Epigenetic modifications are a mechanism conveying environmental information to subsequent generations via parental germ lines. Research on epigenetic responses to environmental changes in wild mammals has been widely neglected, as well as studies that compare responses to changes in different environmental factors. Here, we focused on the transmission of DNA methylation changes to naive male offspring after paternal exposure to either diet (~40% less protein) or temperature increase (10 °C increased temperature). Because both experiments focused on the liver as the main metabolic and thermoregulation organ, we were able to decipher if epigenetic changes differed in response to different environmental changes. Reduced representation bisulfite sequencing (RRBS) revealed differentially methylated regions (DMRs) in annotated genomic regions in sons sired before (control) and after the fathers’ treatments. We detected both a highly specific epigenetic response dependent on the environmental factor that had changed that was reflected in genes involved in specific metabolic pathways, and a more general response to changes in outer stimuli reflected by epigenetic modifications in a small subset of genes shared between both responses. Our results indicated that fathers prepared their offspring for specific environmental changes by paternally inherited epigenetic modifications, suggesting a strong paternal contribution to adaptive processes.
Epigenetic modifications, of which DNA methylation is the most stable, are a mechanism conveying environmental information to subsequent generations via parental germ lines. The paternal contribution to adaptive processes in the offspring might be crucial, but has been widely neglected in comparison to the maternal one. To address the paternal impact on the offspring's adaptability to changes in diet composition, we investigated if low protein diet (LPD) in F0 males caused epigenetic alterations in their subsequently sired sons. We therefore fed F0 male Wild guinea pigs with a diet lowered in protein content (LPD) and investigated DNA methylation in sons sired before and after their father's LPD treatment in both, liver and testis tissues. Our results point to a 'heritable epigenetic response' of the sons to the fathers' dietary change. Because we detected methylation changes also in the testis tissue, they are likely to be transmitted to the F2 generation. Gene-network analyses of differentially methylated genes in liver identified main metabolic pathways indicating a metabolic reprogramming ('metabolic shift'). Epigenetic mechanisms, allowing an immediate and inherited adaptation may thus be important for the survival of species in the context of a persistently changing environment, such as climate change.