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Land cover change is a dynamic phenomenon driven by synergetic biophysical and socioeconomic effects. It involves massive transitions from natural to less natural habitats and thereby threatens ecosystems and the services they provide. To retain intact ecosystems and reduce land cover change to a minimum of natural transition processes, a dense network of protected areas has been established across Europe. However, even protected areas and in particular the zones around protected areas have been shown to undergo land cover changes. The aim of our study was to compare land cover changes in protected areas, non-protected areas, and 1 km buffer zones around protected areas and analyse their relationship to climatic and socioeconomic factors across Europe between 2000 and 2012 based on earth observation data. We investigated land cover flows describing major change processes: urbanisation, afforestation, deforestation, intensification of agriculture, extensification of agriculture, and formation of water bodies. Based on boosted regression trees, we modelled correlations between land cover flows and climatic and socioeconomic factors. The results show that land cover changes were most frequent in 1 km buffer zones around protected areas (3.0% of all buffer areas affected). Overall, land cover changes within protected areas were less frequent than outside, although they still amounted to 18,800 km2 (1.5% of all protected areas) from 2000 to 2012. In some parts of Europe, urbanisation and intensification of agriculture still accounted for up to 25% of land cover changes within protected areas. Modelling revealed meaningful relationships between land cover changes and a combination of influencing factors. Demographic factors (accessibility to cities and population density) were most important for coarse-scale patterns of land cover changes, whereas fine-scale patterns were most related to longitude (representing the general east/west economic gradient) and latitude (representing the north/south climatic gradient).
Glacial lakes in the Hindu Kush–Karakoram–Himalayas–Nyainqentanglha (HKKHN) region have grown rapidly in number and area in past decades, and some dozens have drained in catastrophic glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs). Estimating regional susceptibility of glacial lakes has largely relied on qualitative assessments by experts, thus motivating a more systematic and quantitative appraisal. Before the backdrop of current climate-change projections and the potential of elevation-dependent warming, an objective and regionally consistent assessment is urgently needed. We use an inventory of 3390 moraine-dammed lakes and their documented outburst history in the past four decades to test whether elevation, lake area and its rate of change, glacier-mass balance, and monsoonality are useful inputs to a probabilistic classification model. We implement these candidate predictors in four Bayesian multi-level logistic regression models to estimate the posterior susceptibility to GLOFs. We find that mostly larger lakes have been more prone to GLOFs in the past four decades regardless of the elevation band in which they occurred. We also find that including the regional average glacier-mass balance improves the model classification. In contrast, changes in lake area and monsoonality play ambiguous roles. Our study provides first quantitative evidence that GLOF susceptibility in the HKKHN scales with lake area, though less so with its dynamics. Our probabilistic prognoses offer improvement compared to a random classification based on average GLOF frequency. Yet they also reveal some major uncertainties that have remained largely unquantified previously and that challenge the applicability of single models. Ensembles of multiple models could be a viable alternative for more accurately classifying the susceptibility of moraine-dammed lakes to GLOFs.
Glacial lakes in the Hindu Kush–Karakoram–Himalayas–Nyainqentanglha (HKKHN) region have grown rapidly in number and area in past decades, and some dozens have drained in catastrophic glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs). Estimating regional susceptibility of glacial lakes has largely relied on qualitative assessments by experts, thus motivating a more systematic and quantitative appraisal. Before the backdrop of current climate-change projections and the potential of elevation-dependent warming, an objective and regionally consistent assessment is urgently needed. We use an inventory of 3390 moraine-dammed lakes and their documented outburst history in the past four decades to test whether elevation, lake area and its rate of change, glacier-mass balance, and monsoonality are useful inputs to a probabilistic classification model. We implement these candidate predictors in four Bayesian multi-level logistic regression models to estimate the posterior susceptibility to GLOFs. We find that mostly larger lakes have been more prone to GLOFs in the past four decades regardless of the elevation band in which they occurred. We also find that including the regional average glacier-mass balance improves the model classification. In contrast, changes in lake area and monsoonality play ambiguous roles. Our study provides first quantitative evidence that GLOF susceptibility in the HKKHN scales with lake area, though less so with its dynamics. Our probabilistic prognoses offer improvement compared to a random classification based on average GLOF frequency. Yet they also reveal some major uncertainties that have remained largely unquantified previously and that challenge the applicability of single models. Ensembles of multiple models could be a viable alternative for more accurately classifying the susceptibility of moraine-dammed lakes to GLOFs.
Ecosystem services inherently involve people, whose values help define the benefits of nature's services. It is thus important for researchers to involve stakeholders in ecosystem services research. However, a simple and practicable framework to guide such engagement, and in particular to help researchers anticipate and consider key issues and challenges, has not been well explored. Here, we use experience from the 12 case studies in the European Operational Potential of Ecosystem Research Applications (OPERAs) project to propose a stakeholder engagement framework comprising three key elements: creating space, aligning motivations, and building trust. We argue that involving stakeholders in research demands thoughtful reflection from the researchers about what kind of space they want to create, including if and how they want to bring different interests together, how much space they want to allow for critical discussion, and whether there is a role for particular stakeholders to serve as conduits between others. In addition, understanding their own motivations—including values, knowledge, goals, and desired benefits—will help researchers decide when and how to involve stakeholders, identify areas of common ground and potential disagreement, frame the project appropriately, set expectations, and ensure each party is able to see benefits of engaging with each other. Finally, building relationships with stakeholders can be difficult but considering the roles of existing relationships, time, approach, reputation, and belonging can help build mutual trust. Although the three key elements and the paths between them can play out differently depending on the particular research project, we suggest that a research design that considers how to create the space in which researchers and stakeholders will meet, align motivations between researchers and stakeholders, and build mutual trust will help foster productive researcher–stakeholder relationships.
Climate change heavily impacts smallholder farming worldwide. Cross-scale vulnerability assessment has a high potential to identify nested measures for reducing vulnerability of smallholder farmers. Despite their high practical value, there are currently only limited examples of cross-scale assessments. The presented study aims at assessing the vulnerability of smallholder farmers in the Northeast of Brazil across three scales: regional, farm and field scale. In doing so, it builds on existing vulnerability indices and compares results between indices at the same scale and across scales. In total, six independent indices are tested, two at each scale. The calculated indices include social, economic and ecological indicators, based on municipal statistics, meteorological data, farm interviews and soil analyses. Subsequently, indices and overlapping indicators are normalized for intra- and cross-scale comparison. The results show considerable differences between indices across and within scales. They indicate different activities to reduce vulnerability of smallholder farmers. Major shortcomings arise from the conceptual differences between the indices. We therefore recommend the development of hierarchical indices, which are adapted to local conditions and contain more overlapping indicators for a better understanding of the nested vulnerabilities of smallholder farmers.
Climate change heavily impacts smallholder farming worldwide. Cross-scale vulnerability assessment has a high potential to identify nested measures for reducing vulnerability of smallholder farmers. Despite their high practical value, there are currently only limited examples of cross-scale assessments. The presented study aims at assessing the vulnerability of smallholder farmers in the Northeast of Brazil across three scales: regional, farm and field scale. In doing so, it builds on existing vulnerability indices and compares results between indices at the same scale and across scales. In total, six independent indices are tested, two at each scale. The calculated indices include social, economic and ecological indicators, based on municipal statistics, meteorological data, farm interviews and soil analyses. Subsequently, indices and overlapping indicators are normalized for intra- and cross-scale comparison. The results show considerable differences between indices across and within scales. They indicate different activities to reduce vulnerability of smallholder farmers. Major shortcomings arise from the conceptual differences between the indices. We therefore recommend the development of hierarchical indices, which are adapted to local conditions and contain more overlapping indicators for a better understanding of the nested vulnerabilities of smallholder farmers.
Volunteered geographical information (VGI) and citizen science have become important sources data for much scientific research. In the domain of land cover, crowdsourcing can provide a high temporal resolution data to support different analyses of landscape processes. However, the scientists may have little control over what gets recorded by the crowd, providing a potential source of error and uncertainty. This study compared analyses of crowdsourced land cover data that were contributed by different groups, based on nationality (labelled Gondor and Non-Gondor) and on domain experience (labelled Expert and Non-Expert). The analyses used a geographically weighted model to generate maps of land cover and compared the maps generated by the different groups. The results highlight the differences between the maps how specific land cover classes were under-and over-estimated. As crowdsourced data and citizen science are increasingly used to replace data collected under the designed experiment, this paper highlights the importance of considering between group variations and their impacts on the results of analyses. Critically, differences in the way that landscape features are conceptualised by different groups of contributors need to be considered when using crowdsourced data in formal scientific analyses. The discussion considers the potential for variation in crowdsourced data, the relativist nature of land cover and suggests a number of areas for future research. The key finding is that the veracity of citizen science data is not the critical issue per se. Rather, it is important to consider the impacts of differences in the semantics, affordances and functions associated with landscape features held by different groups of crowdsourced data contributors.
Volunteered geographical information (VGI) and citizen science have become important sources data for much scientific research. In the domain of land cover, crowdsourcing can provide a high temporal resolution data to support different analyses of landscape processes. However, the scientists may have little control over what gets recorded by the crowd, providing a potential source of error and uncertainty. This study compared analyses of crowdsourced land cover data that were contributed by different groups, based on nationality (labelled Gondor and Non-Gondor) and on domain experience (labelled Expert and Non-Expert). The analyses used a geographically weighted model to generate maps of land cover and compared the maps generated by the different groups. The results highlight the differences between the maps how specific land cover classes were under-and over-estimated. As crowdsourced data and citizen science are increasingly used to replace data collected under the designed experiment, this paper highlights the importance of considering between group variations and their impacts on the results of analyses. Critically, differences in the way that landscape features are conceptualised by different groups of contributors need to be considered when using crowdsourced data in formal scientific analyses. The discussion considers the potential for variation in crowdsourced data, the relativist nature of land cover and suggests a number of areas for future research. The key finding is that the veracity of citizen science data is not the critical issue per se. Rather, it is important to consider the impacts of differences in the semantics, affordances and functions associated with landscape features held by different groups of crowdsourced data contributors.
Ecosystem services have a significant impact on human wellbeing. While ecosystem services are frequently represented by monetary values, social values and underlying social benefits remain under explored. The purpose of this study is to assess whether and how social benefits have been explicitly addressed within socio-economic and socio-cultural ecosystem services research, ultimately allowing a better understanding between ecosystem services and human well-being. In this paper, we reviewed 115 international primary valuation studies and tested four hypotheses associated to the identification of social benefits of ecosystem services using logistic regressions. Tested hypotheses were that (1) social benefits are mostly derived in studies that assess cultural ecosystem services as opposed to other ecosystem service types, (2) there is a pattern of social benefits and certain cultural ecosystem services assessed simultaneously, (3) monetary valuation techniques go beyond expressing monetary values and convey social benefits, and (4) directly addressing stakeholder's views the consideration of social benefits in ecosystem service assessments. Our analysis revealed that (1) a variety of social benefits are valued in studies that assess either of the four ecosystem service types, (2) certain social benefits are likely to co-occur in combination with certain cultural ecosystem services, (3) of the studies that employed monetary valuation techniques, simulated market approaches overlapped most frequently with the assessment of social benefits and (4) studies that directly incorporate stakeholder's views were more likely to also assess social benefits. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Ecosystem services have a significant impact on human wellbeing. While ecosystem services are frequently represented by monetary values, social values and underlying social benefits remain underexplored. The purpose of this study is to assess whether and how social benefits have been explicitly addressed within socio-economic and socio-cultural ecosystem services research, ultimately allowing a better understanding between ecosystem services and human well-being. In this paper, we reviewed 115 international primary valuation studies and tested four hypotheses associated to the identification of social benefits of ecosystem services using logistic regressions. Tested hypotheses were that (1) social benefits are mostly derived in studies that assess cultural ecosystem services as opposed to other ecosystem service types, (2) there is a pattern of social benefits and certain cultural ecosystem services assessed simultaneously, (3) monetary valuation techniques go beyond expressing monetary values and convey social benefits, and (4) directly addressing stakeholdeŕs views the consideration of social benefits in ecosystem service assessments. Our analysis revealed that (1) a variety of social benefits are valued in studies that assess either of the four ecosystem service types, (2) certain social benefits are likely to co-occur in combination with certain cultural ecosystem services, (3) of the studies that employed monetary valuation techniques, simulated market approaches overlapped most frequently with the assessment of social benefits and (4) studies that directly incorporate stakeholder's views were more likely to also assess social benefits.