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Semi-distributed hydrological and water quality models are increasingly used as innovative and scientific-based management tools.
However, their application is usually restricted to the gauging stations where they are originally calibrated, limiting their spatial capability.
In this study, the semi-distributed hydrological water quality model HYPE (HYdrological Predictions for the Environment) was tested spatially to represent nitrate-N (NO3- N) and total phosphorus (TP) concentrations and loads of the nested and heterogeneous Selke catchment (463 km(2)) in central Germany.
First, an automatic calibration procedure and uncertainty analysis were conducted using the DiffeRential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) tool to simulate discharge, NO3--N and TP concentrations. A multi-site and multi-objective calibration approach was applied using three main gauging stations, covering the most important hydro-meteorological and physiographical characteristics of the whole catchment. Second, the model's capability was tested to represent further internal stations, which were not initially considered for calibration. Results showed that discharge was well represented by the model at all three main stations during both calibration (1994-1998) and validation (1999-2014) periods with lowest Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) of 0.71 and maximum Percentage BIAS (PBIAS) of 18.0%.
The model was able to reproduce the seasonal dynamics of NO3--N and TP concentrations with low predictive uncertainty at the three main stations, reflected by PBIAS values in the ranges from 16.1% to 6.4% and from 20.0% to 11.5% for NO3--N and TP load simulations, respectively.
At internal stations, the model could represent reasonably well the seasonal variation of nutrient concentrations with PBIAS values in the ranges from 9.0% to 14.2% for NO3--N and from 25.3% to 34.3% for TP concentration simulations.
Overall, results suggested that the spatial validation of a nutrient transport model can be better ensured when a multi-site and multi-objective calibration approach using archetypical gauging stations is implemented.
Further, results revealed that the delineation of sub-catchments should put more focus on hydro-meteorological conditions than on land-use features.
In this study, we contribute to the scholarly conversation on firm-level business model changes following a neoconfigurational approach. By exploring configurations of business model changes over time, we add the direction of business model changes-namely business model convergence or divergence-as a vital avenue to the business model innovation literature. We identify necessary business model convergence and divergence recipes in a sample of N = 217 strategic dyadic alliances. Firstly, technological proximity emerges as a single precondition to both converging and diverging business models. Secondly, business models between competitors either converge through complementarities or tend not to change relative to each other. Thirdly, equity participation enables business model divergence through co-specialization. We conclude with a discussion of business model trajectories and future research directions.
The Wisconsin Card Sorting Test (WCST) is used to test higher-level executive functions or switching, depending on the measures chosen in a study and its goal. Many measures can be extracted from the WCST, but how to assign them to specific cognitive skills remains unclear. Thus, the current study first aimed at identifying which measures test the same cognitive abilities. Second, we compared the performance of mono- and multilingual children in the identified abilities because there is some evidence that bilingualism can improve executive functions. We tested 66 monolingual and 56 multilingual (i.e., bi- and trilingual) primary school children (M-age = 109 months) in an online version of the classic WCST. A principal component analysis revealed four factors: problem-solving, monitoring, efficient errors, and perseverations. Because the assignment of measures to factors is only partially coherent across the literature, we identified this as one of the sources of task impurity. In the second part, we calculated regression analyses to test for group differences while controlling for intelligence as a predictor for executive functions and for confounding variables such as age, German lexicon size, and socioeconomic status. Intelligence predicted problem solving and perseverations. In the monitoring component (measured by the reaction times preceding a rule switch), multilinguals outperformed monolinguals, thereby supporting the view that bi- or multilingualism can improve processing speed related to monitoring.
The literature contains a sizable number of publications where weather types are used to decompose climate shifts or trends into contributions of frequency and mean of those types. They are all based on the product rule, that is, a transformation of a product of sums into a sum of products, the latter providing the decomposition. While there is nothing to argue about the transformation itself, its interpretation as a climate shift or trend decomposition is bound to fail. While the case of a climate shift may be viewed as an incomplete description of a more complex behaviour, trend decomposition indeed produces bogus trends, as demonstrated by a synthetic counterexample with well-defined trends in type frequency and mean. Consequently, decompositions based on that transformation, be it for climate shifts or trends, must not be used.
A numerical framework is developed to study the hysteresis of elastic properties of porous ceramics as a function of temperature. The developed numerical model is capable of employing experimentally measured crystallographic orientation distribution and coefficient of thermal expansion values. For realistic modeling of the microstructure, Voronoi polygons are used to generate polycrystalline grains. Some grains are considered as voids, to simulate the material porosity. To model intercrystalline cracking, cohesive elements are inserted along grain boundaries. Crack healing (recovery of the initial properties) upon closure is taken into account with special cohesive elements implemented in the commercial code ABAQUS. The numerical model can be used to estimate fracture properties governing the cohesive behavior through inverse analysis procedure. The model is applied to a porous cordierite ceramic. The obtained fracture properties are further used to successfully simulate general non-linear macroscopic stress-strain curves of cordierite, thereby validating the model.
Throughfall, that is, the fraction of rainfall that passes through the forest canopy, is strongly influenced by rainfall and forest stand characteristics which are in turn both subject to seasonal dynamics. Disentangling the complex interplay of these controls is challenging, and only possible with long-term monitoring and a large number of throughfall events measured in parallel at different forest stands. We therefore based our analysis on 346 rainfall events across six different forest stands at the long-term terrestrial environmental observatory TERENO Northeast Germany. These forest stands included pure stands of beech, pine and young pine, and mixed stands of oak-beech, pine-beech and pine-oak-beech. Throughfall was overall relatively low, with 54-68% of incident rainfall in summer. Based on the large number of events it was possible to not only investigate mean or cumulative throughfall but also its statistical distribution. The distributions of throughfall fractions show distinct differences between the three types of forest stands (deciduous, mixed and pine). The distributions of the deciduous stands have a pronounced peak at low throughfall fractions and a secondary peak at high fractions in summer, as well as a pronounced peak at higher throughfall fractions in winter. Interestingly, the mixed stands behave like deciduous stands in summer and like pine stands in winter: their summer distributions are similar to the deciduous stands but the winter peak at high throughfall fractions is much less pronounced. The seasonal comparison further revealed that the wooden components and the leaves behaved differently in their throughfall response to incident rainfall, especially at higher rainfall intensities. These results are of interest for estimating forest water budgets and in the context of hydrological and land surface modelling where poor simulation of throughfall would adversely impact estimates of evaporative recycling and water availability for vegetation and runoff.
Droughts in São Paulo
(2023)
Literature has suggested that droughts and societies are mutually shaped and, therefore, both require a better understanding of their coevolution on risk reduction and water adaptation. Although the Sao Paulo Metropolitan Region drew attention because of the 2013-2015 drought, this was not the first event. This paper revisits this event and the 1985-1986 drought to compare the evolution of drought risk management aspects. Documents and hydrological records are analyzed to evaluate the hazard intensity, preparedness, exposure, vulnerability, responses, and mitigation aspects of both events. Although the hazard intensity and exposure of the latter event were larger than the former one, the policy implementation delay and the dependency of service areas in a single reservoir exposed the region to higher vulnerability. In addition to the structural and non-structural tools implemented just after the events, this work raises the possibility of rainwater reuse for reducing the stress in reservoirs.
A comprehensive workflow to analyze ensembles of globally inverted 2D electrical resistivity models
(2022)
Electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) aims at imaging the subsurface resistivity distribution and provides valuable information for different geological, engineering, and hydrological applications. To obtain a subsurface resistivity model from measured apparent resistivities, stochastic or deterministic inversion procedures may be employed. Typically, the inversion of ERT data results in non-unique solutions; i.e., an ensemble of different models explains the measured data equally well. In this study, we perform inference analysis of model ensembles generated using a well-established global inversion approach to assess uncertainties related to the nonuniqueness of the inverse problem. Our interpretation strategy starts by establishing model selection criteria based on different statistical descriptors calculated from the data residuals. Then, we perform cluster analysis considering the inverted resistivity models and the corresponding data residuals. Finally, we evaluate model uncertainties and residual distributions for each cluster. To illustrate the potential of our approach, we use a particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm to obtain an ensemble of 2D layer-based resistivity models from a synthetic data example and a field data set collected in Loon-Plage, France. Our strategy performs well for both synthetic and field data and allows us to extract different plausible model scenarios with their associated uncertainties and data residual distributions. Although we demonstrate our workflow using 2D ERT data and a PSObased inversion approach, the proposed strategy is general and can be adapted to analyze model ensembles generated from other kinds of geophysical data and using different global inversion approaches.
Sonority is a fundamental notion in phonetics and phonology, central to many descriptions of the syllable and various useful predictions in phonotactics. Although widely accepted, sonority lacks a clear basis in speech articulation or perception, given that traditional formal principles in linguistic theory are often exclusively based on discrete units in symbolic representation and are typically not designed to be compatible with auditory perception, sensorimotor control, or general cognitive capacities. In addition, traditional sonority principles also exhibit systematic gaps in empirical coverage. Against this backdrop, we propose the incorporation of symbol-based and signal-based models to adequately account for sonority in a complementary manner. We claim that sonority is primarily a perceptual phenomenon related to pitch, driving the optimization of syllables as pitch-bearing units in all language systems. We suggest a measurable acoustic correlate for sonority in terms of periodic energy, and we provide a novel principle that can account for syllabic well-formedness, the nucleus attraction principle (NAP). We present perception experiments that test our two NAP-based models against four traditional sonority models, and we use a Bayesian data analysis approach to test and compare them. Our symbolic NAP model outperforms all the other models we test, while our continuous bottom-up NAP model is at second place, along with the best performing traditional models. We interpret the results as providing strong support for our proposals: (i) the designation of periodic energy as the acoustic correlate of sonority; (ii) the incorporation of continuous entities in phonological models of perception; and (iii) the dual-model strategy that separately analyzes symbol-based top-down processes and signal-based bottom-up processes in speech perception.