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- Institut für Physik und Astronomie (11) (remove)
Synchrotron-based angle-resolved time-of-flight electron spectroscopy for dynamics in dichalogenides
(2018)
Spectroscopy at the limit
(2018)
Shaping via binding
(2018)
Samarium hexaboride
(2018)
Modeling and data analysis of large-scale atmosphere dynamics associated with extreme weather
(2018)
In the last decades the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events like heat waves and heavy rainfall have increased and are at least partly linked to global warming. These events can have a strong impact on agricultural and economic production and, thereby, on society. Thus, it is important to improve our understanding of the physical processes leading to those extreme events in order to provide accurate near-term and long-term forecasts. Thermodynamic drivers associated with global warming are well understood, but dynamical aspects of the atmosphere much less so. The dynamical aspects, while less important than the thermodynamic drivers in regards to large-scale and long-time averaged effects, play a critical role in the formation of extremes.
The overall aim of this thesis is to improve our understanding of patterns, variability and trends in the global atmospheric circulation under a changing climate. In particular, in this dissertation I developed two new data-driven methods to quantitatively describe the dynamics of jet streams, Hadley cells and storm tracks. In addition, I introduce and validate a new statistical-dynamical atmosphere model that can be used to efficiently model the large-scale circulation.
First, I developed a scheme based on the Dijkstra ‘shortest-path’ algorithm to identify jet stream cores. Using reanalysis data, I found a significant change in jet stream strength and position over the last decades: Specifically, a decrease in wind speeds and a spatial shift toward the poles. This work also shows that the splitting or merging of the polar front jet stream and the subtropical jet stream depends on the season and longitudinal position. In a follow-up study, I analyzed trends in the latitudinal position of the poleward edge of the Hadley cell and subtropical jet stream core for all longitudes. These trends depend strongly on longitude and thus the impacts of tropical expansion might be pronounced in some regions and absent in others.
The second approach was to develop an empirical forecast method for European and Mediterranean winter precipitation. This prediction algorithm innovatively incorporates the spatial patterns of predictors in autumn using clustering analyses. I identified the most important precursors (snow cover in Eurasia, Barents and Kara sea ice concentrations as well as sea surface temperature in the Atlantic and Mediterranean region) for the precipitation prediction. This forecast algorithm had higher forecast skills than conventionally employed methods such as Canonical Correlation Analysis or operational systems using climate models.
The last approach was to examine the atmospheric circulation using the novel statisticaldynamical atmosphere model Aeolus. First, I validated the model’s depiction of the largescale circulation in terms of Hadley circulation, jet streams, storm tracks and planetary waves. To do so, I performed a parameter optimization using simulated annealing. Next, I investigated the sensitivity of the large-scale circulation to three different temperature components: global mean temperature, meridional temperature gradient and zonal temperature gradient. The model experiment showed that the strength of the Hadley cell, storm tracks and jet streams depend almost linearly on both the global mean temperature and the meridional temperature gradient, whereas the zonal temperature gradient is shown to have little or no influence. The magnitude of planetary waves is clearly affected by all three temperature components. Finally, the width of the Hadley cell behaves nonlinearly with respect to all three temperature components.
These findings might have profound consequences for climate modeling of the Mediterranean region. The latitudinal poleward trend of the Hadley cell edge position might become stronger under climate change according to the results with Aeolus. These changes would lead to a substantial reduction of the winter precipitation in the Mediterranean region. In this case seasonal empirical forecast methods, like the clustering-based prediction scheme, will play an important role for forecasting seasonal droughts in advance such that water managers and politicians can mitigate impacts.
Climate change affects societies across the globe in various ways. In addition to gradual changes in temperature and other climatic variables, global warming is likely to increase intensity and frequency of extreme weather events.
Beyond biophysical impacts, these also directly affect societal and economic activity. Additionally, indirect effects can occur; spatially, economic losses can spread along global supply-chains; temporally, climate impacts can change the economic development trajectory of countries.
This thesis first examines how climate change alters river flood risk and its local socio-economic implications. Then, it studies the global economic response to river floods in particular, and to climate change in general.
Changes in high-end river flood risk are calculated for the next three decades on a global scale with high spatial resolution. In order to account for uncertainties, this assessment makes use of an ensemble of climate and hydrological models as well as a river routing model, that is found to perform well regarding peak river discharge. The results show an increase in high-end flood risk in many parts of the world, which require profound adaptation efforts. This pressure to adapt is measured as the enhancement in protection level necessary to stay at historical high-end risk. In developing countries as well as in industrialized regions, a high pressure to adapt is observed - the former to increase low protection levels, the latter to maintain the low risk levels perceived in the past.
Further in this thesis, the global agent-based dynamic supply-chain model acclimate is developed. It models the cascading of indirect losses in the global supply network. As an anomaly model its agents - firms and consumers - maximize their profit locally to respond optimally to local perturbations. Incorporating quantities as well as prices on a daily basis, it is suitable to dynamically resolve the impacts of unanticipated climate extremes.
The model is further complemented by a static measure, which captures the inter-dependencies between sectors across regions that are only connected indirectly. These higher-order dependencies are shown to be important for a comprehensive assessment of loss-propagation and overall costs of local disasters.
In order to study the economic response to river floods, the acclimate model is driven by flood simulations. Within the next two decades, the increase in direct losses can only partially be compensated by market adjustments, and total losses are projected to increase by 17% without further adaptation efforts. The US and the EU are both shown to receive indirect losses from China, which is strongly affected directly. However, recent trends in the trade relations leave the EU in a better position to compensate for these losses.
Finally, this thesis takes a broader perspective when determining the investment response to the climate change damages employing the integrated assessment model DICE. On an optimal economic development path, the increase in damages is anticipated as emissions and consequently temperatures increase. This leads to a significant devaluation of investment returns and the income losses from climate damages almost double.
Overall, the results highlight the need to adapt to extreme weather events - local physical adaptation measures have to be combined with regional and global policy measures to prepare the global supply-chain network to climate change.
The topic of this thesis is the experimental investigation of evaporating thin films on planar solid substrates and the enrichment, the crystal growth and Marangoni flows near the three phase line in the case of partially wetting mixtures of volatile and non volatile liquids. In short, it deals with the properties of planar liquid films and with those of thin liquid sections near the three phase contact line. In both cases the liquid looses continuously one component by evaporation. One topic is the rupture behavior of ultra-thin films of binary mixtures of a volatile solvent and a nonvolatile solute. It is studied how the thickness at which the film ruptures is related to the solute crystallization at the liquid/ substrate interface as soon as the solute reaches supersaturation. A universal relation between the rupture thickness and the saturation behaviour is presented. The second research subject are individual nanoparticles embedded in molecularly thin films at planar substrates. It is found that the nanoparticles cause an unexpectedly large film surface distortion (meniscus). This distortion can be measured quantitatively by conventional reflective microscopy although the nanoparticles are much smaller than the Rayleigh diffraction limit. Investigations with binary mixtures of volatile solvents and non-volatile solutes (polymers) aim at a better understanding/prediction of the final solute coverage, the timeresolved film thinning, the time-resolved solvent evaporation, and the evolution of the solute concentration within the thinning film. A quantiative theoretical description of the experimental findings is derived. Experiments of completely miscible binary mixtures of volatile liquids, which individually form continuous planar films show unexpectedly that films of mixtures are not necessarily continuous and planar. Rather, they may form surface
undulations or even rupture. This is explained with surface Marangoni flows. A new method for the exceptionally fast fabrication (mm/min) of ultralong aligned diphenylalanin single crystals via dip casting is presented. It is shown how the specific evaporation conditions at the three phase line can be used for a controlled peptide crystal growth process. It is further demonstrated how the confinement inside a smalll capillary affects the peptide crystallization and how this can be understood (and used).