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The most profound shift in the African hydroclimate of the last 1 million years occurred around 300 thousand years (ka) ago.
This change in African hydroclimate is manifest as an east-west change in moisture balance that cannot be fully explained through linkages to high latitude climate systems.
The east-west shift is, instead, probably driven by a shift in the tropical Walker Circulation related to sea surface temperature change driven by orbital forcing. Comparing records of past vegetation change, and hominin evolution and development, with this breakpoint in the climate system is challenging owing to the paucity of study sites available and uncertainties regarding the dating of records. Notwithstanding these uncertainties we find that, broadly speaking, both vegetation and hominins change around 300 ka.
The vegetative backdrop suggests that relative abundance of vegetative resources shifted from western to eastern Africa, although resources would have persisted across the continent.
The climatic and vegetation changes probably provided challenges for hominins and are broadly coincident with the appearance of Homo sapiens (ca 315 ka) and the emergence of Middle Stone Age technology.
The concomitant changes in climate, vegetation and hominin evolution suggest that these factors are closely intertwined.
This article is part of the theme issue 'Tropical forests in the deep human past'.
The origins and development of the arid and highly seasonal steppe-desert biome in Central Asia, the largest of its kind in the world, remain largely unconstrained by existing records. It is unclear how Cenozoic climatic, geological, and biological forces, acting at diverse spatial and temporal scales, shaped Central Asian ecosystems through time. Our synthesis shows that the Central Asian steppe-desert has existed since at least Eocene times but experienced no less than two regime shifts, one at the Eocene-Oligocene Transition and one in the mid-Miocene. These shifts separated three successive "stable states," each characterized by unique floral and faunal structures. Past responses to disturbance in the Asian steppe-desert imply that modern ecosystems are unlikely to recover their present structures and diversity if forced into a new regime. This is of concern for Asian steppes today, which are being modified for human use and lost to desertification at unprecedented rates.
Fragmentation of landscapes creates a transition zone in between natural habitats or different kinds of land use. In forested and agricultural landscapes with transition zones, microclimate and matter cycling are markedly altered. This probably accelerates and is intensified by global warming. However, there is no consensus on defining transition zones and quantifying relevant variables for microclimate and matter cycling across disciplines. This article is an attempt to a) revise definitions and offer a framework for quantitative ecologists, b) review the literature on microclimate and matter cycling in transition zones and c) summarise this information using meta-analysis to better understand bio-geochemical and bio-geophysical processes and their spatial extent in transition zones. We expect altered conditions in soils of transition zones to be 10-20 m with a maximum of 50 m, and 25-50 m for above-ground space with a maximum of 125 m.
This article presents a review of the current data on the level of paleolimnological knowledge about lakes in the Russian part of the northern Eurasia. The results of investigation of the northwestern European part of Russia as the best paleolimnologically studied sector of the Russian north is presented in detail. The conditions of lacustrine sedimentation at the boundary between the Late Pleistocene and Holocene and the role of different external factors in formation of their chemical composition, including active volcanic activity and possible large meteorite impacts, are also discussed. The results of major paleoclimatic and paleoecological reconstructions in northern Siberia are presented. Particular attention is given to the databases of abiotic and biotic parameters of lake ecosystems as an important basis for quantitative reconstructions of climatic and ecological changes in the Late Pleistocene and Holocene. Keywords: paleolimnology, lakes, bottom sediments, northern.
Like almost all fields of science, hydrology has benefited to a large extent from the tremendous improvements in scientific instruments that are able to collect long-time data series and an increase in available computational power and storage capabilities over the last decades. Many model applications and statistical analyses (e.g., extreme value analysis) are based on these time series. Consequently, the quality and the completeness of these time series are essential. Preprocessing of raw data sets by filling data gaps is thus a necessary procedure. Several interpolation techniques with different complexity are available ranging from rather simple to extremely challenging approaches. In this paper, various imputation methods available to the hydrological researchers are reviewed with regard to their suitability for filling gaps in the context of solving hydrological questions. The methodological approaches include arithmetic mean imputation, principal component analysis, regression-based methods and multiple imputation methods. In particular, autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH) models which originate from finance and econometrics will be discussed regarding their applicability to data series characterized by non-constant volatility and heteroscedasticity in hydrological contexts. The review shows that methodological advances driven by other fields of research bear relevance for a more intensive use of these methods in hydrology. Up to now, the hydrological community has paid little attention to the imputation ability of time series models in general and ARCH models in particular.
Silicon (Si) is considered as a quasiessential element for higher plants as its uptake increases plant growth and resistance against abiotic as well as biotic stresses. Foliar application of fertilizers generally is assumed to be a comparably environment-friendly form of fertilization because only small quantities are needed. The interest in foliar fertilization and the use of Si as a fertilizer in general increased significantly within the last decades, but there are only few publications dealing with the foliar application of Si at all. In the present review, the effects of Si foliar fertilization, including nano-Si fertilizers, on the three most important crops on a global scale, that is, maize, rice, and wheat, are summarized. Additionally, different pathways (i.e., cuticular pathways, stomata, and trichomes) of foliar uptake and functioning of Si foliar fertilizers against biotic (i.e., fungal diseases and harmful insects), as well as abiotic (i.e., water stress, macronutrient imbalance, and heavy metal toxicity) stressors are discussed. Future research should especially focus on (1) the gathering of empirical data from field and greenhouse experiments, (2) the intensification of co-operations between practitioners and scientists, (3) interdisciplinary research, and (4) the analysis of results from multiple studies (meta-analysis, big data) to fully understand effects, uptake, and functioning of Si foliar fertilizers and to evaluate their potential in modern sustainable agriculture concepts.
Unravelling the spatiotemporal evolution of the Cenozoic Andean (Altiplano-Puna) plateau has been one of the most intriguing problems of South American geology. Despite a number of investigations, the early deformation and uplift history of this area remained largely enigmatic. This paper analyses the Paleogene tectono-sedimentary history of the Casa Grande Basin, in the present-day transition zone between the northern sector of the Puna Plateau and the northern part of the Argentine Eastern Cordillera. Our detailed mapping of synsedimentary structures records the onset of regional contractional deformation during the middle Eocene, revealing reactivation of Cretaceous extensional structures and the development of doubly vergent thrusts. This is in agreement with records from other southern parts of the Puna Plateau and the Eastern Cordillera. These observations indicate the existence of an Eocene broken foreland setting within the region, characterized by low-lying compressional basins and ranges with spatially disparate sectors of deformation, which was subsequently subjected to regional uplift resulting in the attainment of present-day elevations during the Neogene.
Terrestrial environmental systems are characterised by numerous feedback links between their different compartments. However, scientific research is organized into disciplines that focus on processes within the respective compartments rather than on interdisciplinary links. Major feedback mechanisms between compartments might therefore have been systematically overlooked so far. Without identifying these gaps, initiatives on future comprehensive environmental monitoring schemes and experimental platforms might fail. We performed a comprehensive overview of feedbacks between compartments currently represented in environmental sciences and explores to what degree missing links have already been acknowledged in the literature. We focused on process models as they can be regarded as repositories of scientific knowledge that compile findings of numerous single studies. In total, 118 simulation models from 23 model types were analysed. Missing processes linking different environmental compartments were identified based on a meta-review of 346 published reviews, model inter-comparison studies, and model descriptions. Eight disciplines of environmental sciences were considered and 396 linking processes were identified and ascribed to the physical, chemical or biological domain. There were significant differences between model types and scientific disciplines regarding implemented interdisciplinary links. The most wide-spread interdisciplinary links were between physical processes in meteorology, hydrology and soil science that drive or set the boundary conditions for other processes (e.g., ecological processes). In contrast, most chemical and biological processes were restricted to links within the same compartment. Integration of multiple environmental compartments and interdisciplinary knowledge was scarce in most model types. There was a strong bias of suggested future research foci and model extensions towards reinforcing existing interdisciplinary knowledge rather than to open up new interdisciplinary pathways. No clear pattern across disciplines exists with respect to suggested future research efforts. There is no evidence that environmental research would clearly converge towards more integrated approaches or towards an overarching environmental systems theory. (c) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
In public perception, abnormal animal behavior is widely assumed to be a potential earthquake precursor, in strong contrast to the viewpoint in natural sciences. Proponents of earthquake prediction via animals claim that animals feel and react abnormally to small changes in environmental and physico-chemical parameters related to the earthquake preparation process. In seismology, however, observational evidence for changes of physical parameters before earthquakes is very weak. In this study, we reviewed 180 publications regarding abnormal animal behavior before earthquakes and analyze and discuss them with respect to (1) magnitude-distance relations, (2) foreshock activity, and (3) the quality and length of the published observations. More than 700 records of claimed animal precursors related to 160 earthquakes are reviewed with unusual behavior of more than 130 species. The precursor time ranges from months to seconds prior to the earthquakes, and the distances from a few to hundreds of kilometers. However, only 14 time series were published, whereas all other records are single observations. The time series are often short (the longest is 1 yr), or only small excerpts of the full data set are shown. The probability density of foreshocks and the occurrence of animal precursors are strikingly similar, suggesting that at least parts of the reported animal precursors are in fact related to foreshocks. Another major difficulty for a systematic and statistical analysis is the high diversity of data, which are often only anecdotal and retrospective. The study clearly demonstrates strong weaknesses or even deficits in many of the published reports on possible abnormal animal behavior. To improve the research on precursors, we suggest a scheme of yes and no questions to be assessed to ensure the quality of such claims.
To safeguard the sustainable use of ecosystems and their services, early detection of potentially damaging changes in functional capabilities is needed. To support a proper ecosystem management, the analysis of an ecosystem’s vulnerability provide information on its weaknesses as well as on its capacity to recover after suffering an impact. However, the application of the vulnerability concept to ecosystems is still an emerging topic. After providing background on the vulnerability concept, we summarize existing ecosystem vulnerability research on the basis of a systematic literature review with a special focus on ecosystem type, disciplinary background, and more detailed definition of the ecosystem vulnerability components. Using the Web of ScienceTM Core Collection, we overviewed the literature from 1991 onwards but used the 5 years from 2011 to 2015 for an in-depth analysis, including 129 articles. We found that ecosystem vulnerability analysis has been applied most notably in conservation biology, climate change research, and ecological risk assessments, pinpointing a limited spreading across the environmental sciences. It occurred primarily within marine and freshwater ecosystems. To avoid confusion, we recommend using the unambiguous term ecosystem vulnerability rather than ecological, environmental, population, or community vulnerability. Further, common ground has been identified, on which to define the ecosystem vulnerability components exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. We propose a framework for ecosystem assessments that coherently connects the concepts of vulnerability, resilience, and adaptability as different ecosystem responses. A short outlook on the possible operationalization of the concept by ecosystem vulnerabilty indices, and a conclusion section complete the review.
The AlpArray seismic network
(2018)
The AlpArray programme is a multinational, European consortium to advance our understanding of orogenesis and its relationship to mantle dynamics, plate reorganizations, surface processes and seismic hazard in the Alps-Apennines-Carpathians-Dinarides orogenic system. The AlpArray Seismic Network has been deployed with contributions from 36 institutions from 11 countries to map physical properties of the lithosphere and asthenosphere in 3D and thus to obtain new, high-resolution geophysical images of structures from the surface down to the base of the mantle transition zone. With over 600 broadband stations operated for 2 years, this seismic experiment is one of the largest simultaneously operated seismological networks in the academic domain, employing hexagonal coverage with station spacing at less than 52 km. This dense and regularly spaced experiment is made possible by the coordinated coeval deployment of temporary stations from numerous national pools, including ocean-bottom seismometers, which were funded by different national agencies. They combine with permanent networks, which also required the cooperation of many different operators. Together these stations ultimately fill coverage gaps. Following a short overview of previous large-scale seismological experiments in the Alpine region, we here present the goals, construction, deployment, characteristics and data management of the AlpArray Seismic Network, which will provide data that is expected to be unprecedented in quality to image the complex Alpine mountains at depth.
Evaluating climate geoengineering proposals in the context of the Paris Agreement temperature goals
(2018)
Current mitigation efforts and existing future commitments are inadequate to accomplish the Paris Agreement temperature goals. In light of this, research and debate are intensifying on the possibilities of additionally employing proposed climate geoengineering technologies, either through atmospheric carbon dioxide removal or farther-reaching interventions altering the Earth’s radiative energy budget. Although research indicates that several techniques may eventually have the physical potential to contribute to limiting climate change, all are in early stages of development, involve substantial uncertainties and risks, and raise ethical and governance dilemmas. Based on present knowledge, climate geoengineering techniques cannot be relied on to significantly contribute to meeting the Paris Agreement temperature goals.
Knowledge of the present-day crustal in-situ stress field is a key for the understanding of geodynamic processes such as global plate tectonics and earthquakes. It is also essential for the management of geo-reservoirs and underground storage sites for energy and waste. Since 1986, the World Stress Map (WSM) project has systematically compiled the orientation of maximum horizontal stress (S-Hmax). For the 30th anniversary of the project, the WSM database has been updated significantly with 42,870 data records which is double the amount of data in comparison to the database release in 2008. The update focuses on areas with previously sparse data coverage to resolve the stress pattern on different spatial scales. In this paper, we present details of the new WSM database release 2016 and an analysis of global and regional stress pattern. With the higher data density, we can now resolve stress pattern heterogeneities from plate-wide to local scales. In particular, we show two examples of 40 degrees-60 degrees S-Hmax rotations within 70 km. These rotations can be used as proxies to better understand the relative importance of plate boundary forces that control the long wave-length pattern in comparison to regional and local controls of the crustal stress state. In the new WSM project phase IV that started in 2017, we will continue to further refine the information on the S-Hmax orientation and the stress regime. However, we will also focus on the compilation of stress magnitude data as this information is essential for the calibration of geomechanical-numerical models. This enables us to derive a 3-D continuous description of the stress tensor from point-wise and incomplete stress tensor information provided with the WSM database. Such forward models are required for safety aspects of anthropogenic activities in the underground and for a better understanding of tectonic processes such as the earthquake cycle.
The Renewable energy power generation capacity has been rapidly increasing in China recently. Meanwhile, the contradiction between power supply and demand is becoming increasingly more prominent due to the intermittence of renewable energies. On the other hand, on the mitigation of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in China needs immediate attention. Power-to-Gas (PtG), a chemical energy storage technology, can convert surplus electricity into combustible gases. Subsurface energy storage can meet the requirements of long term storage with its large capacity. This paper provides a discussion of the entire PtG energy storage technology process and the current research progress. Based on the comparative study of different geological storage schemes for synthetic methane, their respective research progress and limitations are noted. In addition, a full investigation of the distribution and implementation of global PtG and CO2 capture and storage (CCS) demonstration projects is performed. Subsequently, the opportunities and challenges of the development of this technology in China are discussed based on techno-economic and ecological effects analysis. While PtG is expected to be a revolutionary technology that will replace traditional power systems, the main issues of site selection, energy efficiency and the economy still need to be adequately addressed. Additionally, based on the comprehensive discussion of the results of the analysis, power-to-gas and subsurface energy storage implementation strategies, as well as outlook in China are presented.
Flood disasters severely impact human subjective well-being (SWB). Nevertheless, few studies have examined the influence of flood events on individual well-being and how such impacts may be limited by flood protection measures. This study estimates the long term impacts on individual subjective well-being of flood experiences, individual subjective flood risk perceptions, and household flood preparedness decisions. These effects are monetised and placed in context through a comparison with impacts of other adverse events on well-being. We collected data from households in flood-prone areas in France. The results indicate that experiencing a flood has a large negative impact on subjective well-being that is incompletely attenuated over time. Moreover, individuals do not need to be directly affected by floods to suffer SWB losses since subjective well-being is lower for those who expect their flood risk to increase or who have seen a neighbour being flooded. Floodplain inhabitants who prepared for flooding by elevating their home have a higher subjective well-being. A monetisation of the aforementioned well-being impacts shows that a flood requires Euro150,000 in immediate compensation to attenuate SWB losses. The decomposition of the monetised impacts of flood experience into tangible losses and intangible effects on SWB shows that intangible effects are about twice as large as the tangible direct monetary flood losses. Investments in flood protection infrastructure may be under funded if the intangible SWB benefits of flood protection are not taken into account.
Growing attention to phytoplankton mixotrophy as a trophic strategy has led to significant revisions of traditional pelagic food web models and ecosystem functioning. Although some empirical estimates of mixotrophy do exist, a much broader set of in situ measurements are required to (i) identify which organisms are acting as mixotrophs in real time and to (ii) assess the contribution of their heterotrophy to biogeochemical cycling. Estimates are needed through time and across space to evaluate which environmental conditions or habitats favour mixotrophy: conditions still largely unknown. We review methodologies currently available to plankton ecologists to undertake estimates of plankton mixotrophy, in particular nanophytoplankton phago-mixotrophy. Methods are based largely on fluorescent or isotopic tracers, but also take advantage of genomics to identify phylotypes and function. We also suggest novel methods on the cusp of use for phago-mixotrophy assessment, including single-cell measurements improving our capacity to estimate mixotrophic activity and rates in wild plankton communities down to the single-cell level. Future methods will benefit from advances in nanotechnology, micromanipulation and microscopy combined with stable isotope and genomic methodologies. Improved estimates of mixotrophy will enable more reliable models to predict changes in food web structure and biogeochemical flows in a rapidly changing world.
Arboreal epiphytes (plants residing in forest canopies) are present across all major climate zones and play important roles in forest biogeochemistry. The substantial water storage capacity per unit area of the epiphyte "bucket" is a key attribute underlying their capability to influence forest hydrological processes and their related mass and energy flows. It is commonly assumed that the epiphyte bucket remains saturated, or near-saturated, most of the time; thus, epiphytes (particularly vascular epiphytes) can store little precipitation, limiting their impact on the forest canopy water budget. We present evidence that contradicts this common assumption from (i) an examination of past research; (ii) new datasets on vascular epiphyte and epi-soil water relations at a tropical montane cloud forest (Monteverde, Costa Rica); and (iii) a global evaluation of non-vascular epiphyte saturation state using a process-based vegetation model, LiBry. All analyses found that the external and internal water storage capacity of epiphyte communities is highly dynamic and frequently available to intercept precipitation. Globally, non-vascular epiphytes spend <20% of their time near saturation and regionally, including the humid tropics, model results found that non-vascular epiphytes spend similar to 1/3 of their time in the dry state (0-10% of water storage capacity). Even data from Costa Rican cloud forest sites found the epiphyte community was saturated only 1/3 of the time and that internal leaf water storage was temporally dynamic enough to aid in precipitation interception. Analysis of the epi-soils associated with epiphytes further revealed the extent to which the epiphyte bucket emptied-as even the canopy soils were often <50% saturated (29-53% of all days observed). Results clearly show that the epiphyte bucket is more dynamic than currently assumed, meriting further research on epiphyte roles in precipitation interception, redistribution to the surface and chemical composition of "net" precipitation waters reaching the surface.
A wide variety of processes controls the time of occurrence, duration, extent, and severity of river floods. Classifying flood events by their causative processes may assist in enhancing the accuracy of local and regional flood frequency estimates and support the detection and interpretation of any changes in flood occurrence and magnitudes. This paper provides a critical review of existing causative classifications of instrumental and preinstrumental series of flood events, discusses their validity and applications, and identifies opportunities for moving toward more comprehensive approaches. So far no unified definition of causative mechanisms of flood events exists. Existing frameworks for classification of instrumental and preinstrumental series of flood events adopt different perspectives: hydroclimatic (large-scale circulation patterns and atmospheric state at the time of the event), hydrological (catchment scale precipitation patterns and antecedent catchment state), and hydrograph-based (indirectly considering generating mechanisms through their effects on hydrograph characteristics). All of these approaches intend to capture the flood generating mechanisms and are useful for characterizing the flood processes at various spatial and temporal scales. However, uncertainty analyses with respect to indicators, classification methods, and data to assess the robustness of the classification are rarely performed which limits the transferability across different geographic regions. It is argued that more rigorous testing is needed. There are opportunities for extending classification methods to include indicators of space-time dynamics of rainfall, antecedent wetness, and routing effects, which will make the classification schemes even more useful for understanding and estimating floods. This article is categorized under: Science of Water > Water Extremes Science of Water > Hydrological Processes Science of Water > Methods
The 2015 Paris Agreement (PA) has been widely hailed as a diplomatic triumph and a breakthrough in global climate cooperation. However, it is commonly accepted that the PA's collective goal—keeping global warming “well below” 2°C above preindustrial levels—remains ambitious. Making matters even more challenging, in 2017, global CO2 emissions resumed growth after 3 years of near standstill. In 2018, this growth accelerated. It is therefore extremely important that the PA's institutional architecture meet expectations concerning its ability to induce member countries to promise and deliver emissions reductions. This study offers a review of the rapidly growing literature on the PA, to assess its strengths and weaknesses, its significance, and its prospects. We focus on evaluations of its institutional structure and its ability to induce member countries to implement policies. We frame the issues as a trilemma: the challenge of simultaneously satisfying all three main conditions for effectiveness—broad participation, deep commitments, and satisfactory compliance rates. Based on our review, we conclude that the key challenge for the PA will likely be to facilitate sufficiently fast ratcheting‐up of nationally determined contributions, while keeping compliance rates high.
One commonly proposed method to limit flood risk is land-use or zoning policies which regulates construction in high-risk areas, in order to reduce economic exposure and its vulnerability to flood events. Although such zoning regulations can be effective in limiting trends in flood risk, they also have adverse impacts on society, for instance by limiting local development of areas near the water. In order to judge whether proposed land-use or zoning policies are a net benefit to society, they should be accepted or rejected based on a societal cost-benefit analysis (CBA). However, conducting a CBA of zoning regulation is complex and comprehensive guidelines of how to do such an analysis are lacking. We offer guidelines for good practice. In order to assess the costs and benefits of zoning as a climate change adaption strategy, they should be assessed at a societal level in order to account for public good features of flood risk reduction strategies, and because costs in one area can be benefits in another region. We propose a multistep process: first, determine the spatial extent of the zoning policy and how interconnected the zoned area is to other locations; second, conduct a CBA using monetary costs and benefits estimated from an integrated hydro-economic model to investigate if total benefits exceed total costs; third, conduct a sensitivity analysis regarding the main assumptions; fourth, conduct a multicriteria analysis (MCA) of the normative outcomes of a zoning policy. A desirable policy is preferred in both the CBA and MCA. This article is categorized under: Engineering Water > Planning Water Human Water > Value of Water Science of Water > Water Extremes Human Water > Methods
Glacial periods are recognized to be dustier than interglacials, but the conditions leading to greater dust mobilization are poorly defined. Here we present a new high-resolution dust record based on Th-230-normalized He-4 flux from Ocean Drilling Program site 882 in the Subarctic North Pacific covering the last 170,000years. By analogy with modern relationships, we infer the mechanisms controlling orbital-scale dust storm variability in East Asia. We propose that orbital-scale dust flux variability is the result of an expansion of the dust season into summer, in addition to more intense dust storms during spring and fall. The primary drivers influencing dust flux include summer insolation at subarctic latitudes and variable Siberian alpine glaciation, which together control the cold air reservoir in Siberia. Changes in the extent of the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets may be a secondary control.
The SEIS (Seismic Experiment for Interior Structure) instrument onboard the InSight mission will be the first seismometer directly deployed on the surface of Mars. From studies on the Earth and the Moon, it is well known that site amplification in low-velocity sediments on top of more competent rocks has a strong influence on seismic signals, but can also be used to constrain the subsurface structure. Here we simulate ambient vibration wavefields in a model of the shallow sub-surface at the InSight landing site in Elysium Planitia and demonstrate how the high-frequency Rayleigh wave ellipticity can be extracted from these data and inverted for shallow structure. We find that, depending on model parameters, higher mode ellipticity information can be extracted from single-station data, which significantly reduces uncertainties in inversion. Though the data are most sensitive to properties of the upper-most layer and show a strong trade-off between layer depth and velocity, it is possible to estimate the velocity and thickness of the sub-regolith layer by using reasonable constraints on regolith properties. Model parameters are best constrained if either higher mode data can be used or additional constraints on regolith properties from seismic analysis of the hammer strokes of InSight’s heat flow probe HP3 are available. In addition, the Rayleigh wave ellipticity can distinguish between models with a constant regolith velocity and models with a velocity increase in the regolith, information which is difficult to obtain otherwise.
This paper addresses the lithosphere-scale subduction-collision history of the eastern termination of the Aegean retreating subduction system, i.e. western Anatolia. Although there is some general consensus on the protracted subduction evolution of the Aegean since the early Cenozoic at least, correlation with western Anatolia has been widely debated for more than several decades. In western Anatolia, three main tectonic configurations have been envisaged in the past years to reconstruct slab dynamics during the closure of the Neotethyan oceanic realm since the Late Cretaceous. Some authors have suggested an Aegean-type scenario, with the continuous subduction of a single lithospheric slab, punctuated by episodic slab roll-back and trench retreat, whereas others assumed a discontinuous subduction history marked by intermittent slab break-off during either the Campanian (ca. 75 Ma) or the Early Eocene (ca. 55-50 Ma). The third view implies three partly contemporaneous subduction zones. Our review of these models points to key debated aspects that can be re-evaluated in the light of multidisciplinary constraints from the literature. Our discussion leads us to address the timing of subduction initiation, the existence of hypothetical ocean basins, the number of intervening subduction zones between the Taurides and the Pontides, the palaeogeographic origin of tectonic units and the possibility for slab break-off during either the Campanian or the Early Eocene. Thence, we put forward a favoured tectonic scenario featuring two successive phases of subduction of a single lithospheric slab and episodic accretion of two continental domains separated by a continental trough, representing the eastern end of the Cycladic Ocean of the Aegean. The lack of univocal evidence for slab break-off in western Anatolia and southward-younging HP/LT metamorphism in continental tectonic units (from similar to 85, 70 to 50 Ma) in the Late Cretaceous-Palaeogene period suggests continuous subduction since similar to 110 Ma, marked by roll-back episodes in the Palaeocene and the Oligo-Miocene, and slab tearing below western Anatolia during the Miocene.
Widespread flooding in June 2013 caused damage costs of (sic)6 to 8 billion in Germany, and awoke many memories of the floods in August 2002, which resulted in total damage of (sic)11.6 billion and hence was the most expensive natural hazard event in Germany up to now. The event of 2002 does, however, also mark a reorientation toward an integrated flood risk management system in Germany. Therefore, the flood of 2013 offered the opportunity to review how the measures that politics, administration, and civil society have implemented since 2002 helped to cope with the flood and what still needs to be done to achieve effective and more integrated flood risk management. The review highlights considerable improvements on many levels, in particular (1) an increased consideration of flood hazards in spatial planning and urban development, (2) comprehensive property-level mitigation and preparedness measures, (3) more effective flood warnings and improved coordination of disaster response, and (4) a more targeted maintenance of flood defense systems. In 2013, this led to more effective flood management and to a reduction of damage. Nevertheless, important aspects remain unclear and need to be clarified. This particularly holds for balanced and coordinated strategies for reducing and overcoming the impacts of flooding in large catchments, cross-border and interdisciplinary cooperation, the role of the general public in the different phases of flood risk management, as well as a transparent risk transfer system. Recurring flood events reveal that flood risk management is a continuous task. Hence, risk drivers, such as climate change, land-use changes, economic developments, or demographic change and the resultant risks must be investigated at regular intervals, and risk reduction strategies and processes must be reassessed as well as adapted and implemented in a dialogue with all stakeholders.
The role of soil erosion in terrestrial carbon (C) sequestration and release remains one of the most important uncertainties in our attempts to determine the potential of soils to mediate climate change. Despite its widely recognized importance for terrestrial C sequestration, to date, no Earth System Model (ESM) implements soil erosion effects on carbon cycling in sufficient detail. So far, available studies have mostly investigated the magnitude of erosional C transport and in-situ measurements of vertical C fluxes on the catchment or regional scale. Recognizing the need to adequately represent C erosion processes and controls in ESMs, we provide a comprehensive cross-disciplinary review on lateral C redistribution in the landscape and discuss the implications for bio-geochemical cycling of carbon. We present current knowledge on the role of erosional C distribution in controlling the stabilization and release of C in soils, taking into consideration the important geomorphic, ecological, hydrologic, pedologic and micro-climatic processes and controls that affect soil organic carbon (SOC) stock, fluxes, and persistence in dynamic landscapes. Further, we provide an overview on latest experimental and modelling approaches that are being used to investigate the role of erosion in the carbon cycle. Finally, to advance our understanding of the role of soil redistribution in biogeochemical cycles of essential elements, we discuss the most promising topics for future research in this field. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Ecosystem services have a significant impact on human wellbeing. While ecosystem services are frequently represented by monetary values, social values and underlying social benefits remain underexplored. The purpose of this study is to assess whether and how social benefits have been explicitly addressed within socio-economic and socio-cultural ecosystem services research, ultimately allowing a better understanding between ecosystem services and human well-being. In this paper, we reviewed 115 international primary valuation studies and tested four hypotheses associated to the identification of social benefits of ecosystem services using logistic regressions. Tested hypotheses were that (1) social benefits are mostly derived in studies that assess cultural ecosystem services as opposed to other ecosystem service types, (2) there is a pattern of social benefits and certain cultural ecosystem services assessed simultaneously, (3) monetary valuation techniques go beyond expressing monetary values and convey social benefits, and (4) directly addressing stakeholdeŕs views the consideration of social benefits in ecosystem service assessments. Our analysis revealed that (1) a variety of social benefits are valued in studies that assess either of the four ecosystem service types, (2) certain social benefits are likely to co-occur in combination with certain cultural ecosystem services, (3) of the studies that employed monetary valuation techniques, simulated market approaches overlapped most frequently with the assessment of social benefits and (4) studies that directly incorporate stakeholder's views were more likely to also assess social benefits.
Carbon and nutrient cycling in kettle hole sediments depending on hydrological dynamics: a review
(2016)
Kettle holes as a specific group of isolated, small lentic freshwater systems (LFS) often are (i) hot spots of biogeochemical cycling and (ii) exposed to frequent sediment desiccation and rewetting. Their ecological functioning is greatly determined by immanent carbon and nutrient transformations. The objective of this review is to elucidate effects of a changing hydrological regime (i.e., dry-wet cycles) on carbon and nutrient cycling in kettle hole sediments. Generally, dry-wet cycles have the potential to increase C and N losses as well as P availability. However, their duration and frequency are important controlling factors regarding direction and intensity of biogeochemical and microbiological responses. To evaluate drought impacts on sediment carbon and nutrient cycling in detail requires the context of the LFS hydrological history. For example, frequent drought events induce physiological adaptation of exposed microbial communities and thus flatten metabolic responses, whereas rare events provoke unbalanced, strong microbial responses. Different potential of microbial resilience to drought stress can irretrievably change microbial communities and functional guilds, gearing cascades of functional responses. Hence, dry-wet events can shift the biogeochemical cycling of organic matter and nutrients to a new equilibrium, thus affecting the dynamic balance between carbon burial and mineralization in kettle holes.
Much progress has been made in estimating recurrence intervals of great and giant subduction earthquakes using terrestrial, lacustrine, and marine paleoseismic archives. Recent detailed records suggest these earthquakes may have variable recurrence periods and magnitudes forming supercycles. Understanding seismic supercycles requires long paleoseismic archives that record timing and magnitude of such events. Turbidite paleoseismic archives may potentially extend past earthquake records to the Pleistocene and can thus complement commonly shorter-term terrestrial archives. However, in order to unambiguously establish recurring seismicity as a trigger mechanism for turbidity currents, synchronous deposition of turbidites in widely spaced, isolated depocenters has to be ascertained. Furthermore, characteristics that predispose a seismically active continental margin to turbidite paleoseismology and the correct sample site selection have to be taken into account.
Here we analyze 8 marine sediment cores along 950 km of the Chile margin to test for the feasibility of compiling detailed and continuous paleoseismic records based on turbidites. Our results suggest that the deposition of areally widespread, synchronous turbidites triggered by seismicity is largely controlled by sediment supply and, hence, the climatic and geomorphic conditions of the adjacent subaerial setting. The feasibility of compiling a turbidite paleoseismic record depends on the delicate balance between sufficient sediment supply providing material to fail frequently during seismic shaking and sufficiently low sedimentation rates to allow for coeval accumulation of planktonic foraminifera for high-resolution radiocarbon dating.
We conclude that offshore northern central Chile (29-32.5 degrees S) Holocene turbidite paleoseismology is not feasible, because sediment supply from the semi-arid mainland is low and almost no Holocene turbidity-current deposits are found in the cores. In contrast, in the humid region between 36 and 38 degrees S frequent Holocene turbidite deposition may generally correspond to paleoseismic events. However, high terrigenous sedimentation rates prevent high-resolution radiocarbon dating. The climatic transition region between 32.5 and 36 degrees S appears to be best suited for turbidite paleoseismology. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Extreme droughts, heat waves, frosts, precipitation, wind storms and other climate extremes may impact the structure, composition and functioning of terrestrial ecosystems, and thus carbon cycling and its feedbacks to the climate system. Yet, the interconnected avenues through which climate extremes drive ecological and physiological processes and alter the carbon balance are poorly understood. Here, we review the literature on carbon cycle relevant responses of ecosystems to extreme climatic events. Given that impacts of climate extremes are considered disturbances, we assume the respective general disturbance-induced mechanisms and processes to also operate in an extreme context. The paucity of well-defined studies currently renders a quantitative meta-analysis impossible, but permits us to develop a deductive framework for identifying the main mechanisms (and coupling thereof) through which climate extremes may act on the carbon cycle. We find that ecosystem responses can exceed the duration of the climate impacts via lagged effects on the carbon cycle. The expected regional impacts of future climate extremes will depend on changes in the probability and severity of their occurrence, on the compound effects and timing of different climate extremes, and on the vulnerability of each land-cover type modulated by management. Although processes and sensitivities differ among biomes, based on expert opinion, we expect forests to exhibit the largest net effect of extremes due to their large carbon pools and fluxes, potentially large indirect and lagged impacts, and long recovery time to regain previous stocks. At the global scale, we presume that droughts have the strongest and most widespread effects on terrestrial carbon cycling. Comparing impacts of climate extremes identified via remote sensing vs. ground-based observational case studies reveals that many regions in the (sub-)tropics are understudied. Hence, regional investigations are needed to allow a global upscaling of the impacts of climate extremes on global carbon-climate feedbacks.
Applications of graph theory have proliferated across the academic spectrum in recent years. Whereas geosciences and landscape ecology have made rich use of graph theory, its use seems limited in physical geography, and particularly in geomorphology. Common applications of graph theory analyses of connectivity, path or transport efficiencies, subnetworks, network structure, system behaviour and dynamics, and network optimization or engineering all have uses or potential uses in geomorphology and closely related fields. In this paper, we give a short introduction to graph theory and review previous geomorphological applications or works in related fields that have been particularly influential. Network-like geomorphic systems can be classified into nonspatial or spatially implicit system components linked by statistical/causal relationships and spatial units linked by some spatial relationship, for example by fluxes of matter and/or energy. We argue that, if geomorphic system properties and behaviour (e.g., complexity, sensitivity, synchronisability, historical contingency, connectivity etc.) depend on system structure and if graph theory is able to quantitatively describe the configuration of system components, then graph theory should provide us with tools that help in quantifying system properties and in inferring system behaviour. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
With less than two decades of activity, research on melt inclusions (MI) in crystals from rocks that have undergone crustal anatexis - migmatites and granulites - is a recent addition to crustal petrology and geochemistry. Studies on this subject started with glassy inclusions in anatectic crustal enclaves in lavas, and then progressed to regionally metamorphosed and partially melted crustal rocks, where melt inclusions are normally crystallized into a cryptocrystalline aggregate (nanogranitoid).
Since the first paper on melt inclusions in the granulites of the Kerala Khondalite Belt in 2009, reported and studied occurrences are already a few tens. Melt inclusions in migmatites and granulites show many analogies with their more common and long studied counterparts in igneous rocks, but also display very important differences and peculiarities, which are the subject of this review. Microstructurally, melt inclusions in anatectic rocks are small, commonly 10 mu m in diameter, and their main mineral host is peritectic garnet, although several other hosts have been observed. Inclusion contents vary from glass in enclaves that were cooled very rapidly from supersolidus temperatures, to completely crystallized material in slowly cooled regional migmatites. The chemical composition of the inclusions can be analyzed combining several techniques (SEM, EMP, NanoSIMS, LA-ICP-MS), but in the case of crystallized inclusions the experimental remelting under confining pressure in a piston cylinder is a prerequisite. The melt is generally granitic and peraluminous, although granodioritic to trondhjemitic compositions have also been found.
Being mostly primary in origin, inclusions attest for the growth of their peritectic host in the presence of melt. As a consequence, the inclusions have the unique ability of preserving information on the composition of primary anatectic crustal melts, before they undergo any of the common following changes in their way to produce crustal magmas. For these peculiar features, melt inclusions in migmatites and granulites, largely overlooked so far, have the potential to become a fundamental tool for the study of crustal melting, crustal differentiation, and even the generation of the continental crust. (C) 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.
New low-temperature thermochronological data from 80 samples in eastern Kyrgyzstan are combined with previously published data from 61 samples to constrain exhumation in a number of mountain ranges in the Central Kyrgyz Tien Shan. All sampled ranges are found to have a broadly consistent Cenozoic exhumation history, characterized by initially low cooling rates (<1 degrees C/Myr) followed by a series of increases in exhumation that occurred diachronously across the region in the late Cenozoic that are interpreted to record the onset of deformation in different mountain ranges. Combined with geological estimates for the onset of proximal deformation, our data suggest that the Central Kyrgyz Tien Shan started deforming in the late Oligocene-early Miocene, leading to the development of several, widely spaced mountain ranges separated by large intermontane basins. Subsequently, more ranges have been constructed in response to significant shortening increases across the Central Kyrgyz Tien Shan, notably in the late Miocene. The order of range construction is interpreted to reflect variations in the susceptibility of inherited structures to reactivation. Reactivated structures are also shown to have significance along strike variations in fault vergence and displacement, which have influenced the development and growth of individual mountain ranges. Moreover, the timing of deformation allows the former extent of many intermontane basins that have since been partitioned to be inferred; this can be linked to the highly time-transgressive onset of late Cenozoic coarse clastic sedimentation.
Many coasts feature sequences of Quaternary and Neogene shorelines that are shaped by a combination of sea-level oscillations and tectonics. We compiled a global synthesis of sea-level changes for the following highstands: MIS 1, MIS 3, MIS 5e and MIS 11. Also, we date the apparent onset of sequences of paleoshorelines either from published data or tentatively extrapolating an age for the uppermost, purported oldest shoreline in each sequence. Including the most documented MIS 5e benchmark, we identify 926 sequences out of which 185 also feature Holocene shorelines. Six areas are identified where elevations of the MIS 3 shorelines are known, and 31 feature elevation data for MIS 11 shorelines. Genetic relationships to regional geodynamics are further explored based on the elevations of the MIS 5e benchmark. Mean apparent uplift rates range from 0.01 0.01 mm/yr (hotspots) to 1.47 0.08 mm/yr (continental collision). Passive margins appear as ubiquitously uplifting, while tectonic segmentation is more important on active margins. From the literature and our extrapolations, we infer ages for the onset of formation for -180 coastal sequences. Sea level fingerprinting on coastal sequences started at least during mid Miocene and locally as early as Eocene. Whether due to the changes in the bulk volume of seawater or to the temporal variations in the shape of ocean basins, estimates of eustasy fail to explain the magnitude of the apparent sea level drop. Thus, vertical ground motion is invoked, and we interpret the longlasting development of those paleoshore sequences as the imprint of glacial cycles on globally uplifted margins in response to continental compression. The geomorphological expression of the sequences matches the amplitude and frequency of glacial cyclicity. From middle Pleistocene to present-day, moderately fast (100,000 yrs) oscillating sea levels favor the development of well identified strandlines that are distinct from one another. Pliocene and Lower Pleistocene strandlines associated with faster cyclicity (40,000 yrs) are more compact and easily merge into rasas, whereas older Cenozoic low-frequency eustatic changes generally led to widespread flat-lying coastal plains.
Current evidence suggests that all of the major events in hominin evolution have occurred in East Africa. Over the last two decades, there has been intensive work undertaken to understand African palaeoclimate and tectonics in order to put together a coherent picture of how the environment of East Africa has varied in the past. The landscape of East Africa has altered dramatically over the last 10 million years. It has changed from a relatively flat, homogenous region covered with mixed tropical forest, to a varied and heterogeneous environment, with mountains over 4 km high and vegetation ranging from desert to cloud forest. The progressive rifting of East Africa has also generated numerous lake basins, which are highly sensitive to changes in the local precipitation-evaporation regime. There is now evidence that the presence of precession-driven, ephemeral deep-water lakes in East Africa were concurrent with major events in hominin evolution. It seems the unusual geology and climate of East Africa created periods of highly variable local climate, which, it has been suggested could have driven hominin speciation, encephalisation and dispersal out of Africa. One example is the significant hominin speciation and brain expansion event at -1.8 Ma that seems to have been coeval with the occurrence of highly variable, extensive, deep-water lakes. This complex, climatically very variable setting inspired first the variability selection hypothesis, which was then the basis for the pulsed climate variability hypothesis. The newer of the two suggests that the long-term drying trend in East Africa was punctuated by episodes of short, alternating periods of extreme humidity and aridity. Both hypotheses, together with other key theories of climate-evolution linkages, are discussed in this paper. Though useful the actual evolution mechanisms, which led to early hominins are still unclear and continue to be debated. However, it is clear that an understanding of East African lakes and their palaeoclimate history is required to understand the context within which humans evolved and eventually left East Africa. (C) 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.
Quantitative geochemical modeling is today applied in a variety of geological environments from the petrogenesis of igneous rocks to radioactive waste disposal. In addition, the development of thermodynamic databases and computer programs to calculate equilibrium phase diagrams has greatly advanced our ability to model geodynamic processes. Combined with experimental data on elemental partitioning and isotopic fractionation, thermodynamic forward modeling unfolds enormous capacities that are far from exhausted.
In metamorphic petrology the combination of thermodynamic and trace element forward modeling can be used to study and to quantify processes at spatial scales from mu m to km. The thermodynamic forward models utilize Gibbs energy minimization to quantify mineralogical changes along a reaction path of a chemically open fluid/rock system. These results are combined with mass balanced trace element calculations to determine the trace element distribution between rock and melt/fluid during the metamorphic evolution. Thus, effects of mineral reactions, fluid-rock interaction and element transport in metamorphic rocks on the trace element and isotopic composition of minerals, rocks and percolating fluids or melts can be predicted.
Here we illustrate the capacities of combined thermodynamic-geochemical modeling based on two examples relevant to mass transfer during metamorphism. The first example focuses on fluid-rock interaction in and around a blueschist-facies shear zone in felsic gneisses, where fluid-induced mineral reactions and their effects on boron (B) concentrations and isotopic compositions in white mica are modeled. In the second example, fluid release from a subducted slab, the associated transport of B as well as variations in B concentrations and isotopic compositions in liberated fluids and residual rocks are modeled. We compare the modeled results of both examples to geochemical data of natural minerals and rocks and demonstrate that the combination of thermodynamic and geochemical models enables quantification of metamorphic processes and insights into element cycling that would have been unattainable if only one model approach was chosen. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Quantification of total cell abundance is one of the most fundamental parameters in the exploration of subsurface life. Despite all recent advances in molecular techniques, this parameter is usually determined by fluorescence microscopy. In order to obtain reliable and reproducible results, it is important not just to focus on the actual cell enumeration but also to consider the entire chain of processing. Starting with the retrieval of the sample, over subsampling and sample processing to the final step of fluorescence microscopy, there are many potential sources of contamination that have to be assessed and, if possible, avoided. Because some degree of sample contamination will always occur, it is necessary to employ some form of contamination control. Different tracers are available, each one with its specific advantages and drawbacks. In many cases, the problems arise not after the sample has arrived in a well-equipped laboratory with highly trained personnel, but much earlier at the drill site or in a field camp. In this review, I discuss the different aspects of cell enumeration in subsurface sediment, evaluating every step in the long process chain.
Recurrence plots and recurrence quantification analysis have become popular in the last two decades. Recurrence based methods have on the one hand a deep foundation in the theory of dynamical systems and are on the other hand powerful tools for the investigation of a variety of problems. The increasing interest encompasses the growing risk of misuse and uncritical application of these methods. Therefore, we point out potential problems and pitfalls related to different aspects of the application of recurrence plots and recurrence quantification analysis.
Hydrogen-isotopic abundances of lipid biomarkers are emerging as important proxies in the study of ancient environments and ecosystems. A decade ago, pioneering studies made use of new analytical methods and demonstrated that the hydrogen-isotopic composition of individual lipids from aquatic and terrestrial organisms can be related to the composition of their growth (i.e., environmental) water. Subsequently, compound-specific deuterium/hydrogen (D/H) ratios of sedimentary biomarkers have been increasingly used as paleohydrological proxies over a range of geological timescales. Isotopic fractionation observed between hydrogen in environmental water and hydrogen in lipids, however, is sensitive to biochemical, physiological, and environmental influences on the composition of hydrogen available for biosynthesis in cells. Here we review the factors and processes that are known to influence the hydrogen-isotopic compositions of lipids-especially n-alkanes-from photosynthesizing organisms, and we provide a framework for interpreting their D/H ratios from ancient sediments and identify future research opportunities.
The seasonal succession of plankton is an annually repeated process of community assembly during which all major external factors and internal interactions shaping communities can be studied. A quarter of a century ago, the state of this understanding was described by the verbal plankton ecology group (PEG) model. It emphasized the role of physical factors, grazing and nutrient limitation for phytoplankton, and the role of food limitation and fish predation for zooplankton. Although originally targeted at lake ecosystems, it was also adopted by marine plankton ecologists. Since then, a suite of ecological interactions previously underestimated in importance have become research foci: overwintering of key organisms, the microbial food web, parasitism, and food quality as a limiting factor and an extended role of higher order predators. A review of the impact of these novel interactions on plankton seasonal succession reveals limited effects on gross seasonal biomass patterns, but strong effects on species replacements.
Perspectives in modelling earthworm dynamics and their feedbacks with abiotic soil properties
(2012)
Effects of earthworms on soil abiotic properties are well documented from several decades of laboratory and mesocosm experiments, and they are supposed to affect large-scale soil ecosystem functioning. The prediction of the spatiotemporal occurrence of earthworms and the related functional effects in the field or at larger scales, however, is constrained by adequate modelling approaches. Correlative, phenomenological methods, such as species distribution models, facilitate the identification of factors that drive species' distributions. However, these methods ignore the ability of earthworms to select and modify their own habitat and therefore may lead to unreliable predictions. Understanding these feedbacks between earthworms and abiotic soil properties is a key requisite to better understand their spatiotemporal distribution as well as to quantify the various functional effects of earthworms in soil ecosystems. Process-based models that investigate either effects or responses of earthworms on soil environmental conditions are mostly applied in ecotoxicological and bioturbation studies. Process-based models that describe feedbacks between earthworms and soil abiotic properties explicitly are rare. In this review, we analysed 18 process-based earthworm dynamic modelling studies pointing out the current gaps and future challenges in feedback modelling. We identify three main challenges: (i) adequate and reliable process identification in model development at and across relevant spatiotemporal scales (individual behaviour and population dynamics of earthworms), (ii) use of information from different data sources in one model (laboratory or field experiments, earthworm species or functional type) and (iii) quantification of uncertainties in data (e.g. spatiotemporal variability of earthworm abundances and soil hydraulic properties) and derived parameters (e.g. population growth rate and hydraulic conductivity) that are used in the model.
Understanding the manner and degree to which topography in active mountain ranges reflects deformation of the Earth's surface remains a first order goal of tectonic geomorphology. A substantial body of research in the past decade demonstrates that incising channel systems play a central role in setting relationships among topographic relief, differential rock uplift rate, and climatically modulated erosional efficiency. This review provides an introduction to the analysis and interpretation of channel profiles in erosional mountain ranges. We show that existing data support theoretical expectations of positive, monotonic relationships between channel steepness index, a measure of channel gradient normalized for downstream increases in drainage area, and erosion rate at equilibrium, and that the transient response to perturbations away from equilibrium engenders specific spatial patterns in channel profiles that can be used to infer aspects of the forcing. These aspects of channel behavior lay the foundation for a series of case studies that we use to illustrate how focused, quantitative analysis of channel morphology can provide insight into the spatial and temporal dynamics of active deformation. Although the complexities of river response to climate, lithology, and uplift patterns mean that multiple interpretations of topographic data alone will always possible, we show that application of stream profile analysis can be a powerful reconnaissance tool with which to interrogate the rates and patterns of deformation in active mountain belts.
How to understand species' niches and range dynamics: a demographic research agenda for biogeography
(2012)
Range dynamics causes mismatches between a species geographical distribution and the set of suitable environments in which population growth is positive (the Hutchinsonian niche). This is because sourcesink population dynamics cause species to occupy unsuitable environments, and because environmental change creates non-equilibrium situations in which species may be absent from suitable environments (due to migration limitation) or present in unsuitable environments that were previously suitable (due to time-delayed extinction). Because correlative species distribution models do not account for these processes, they are likely to produce biased niche estimates and biased forecasts of future range dynamics. Recently developed dynamic range models (DRMs) overcome this problem: they statistically estimate both range dynamics and the underlying environmental response of demographic rates from species distribution data. This process-based statistical approach qualitatively advances biogeographical analyses. Yet, the application of DRMs to a broad range of species and study systems requires substantial research efforts in statistical modelling, empirical data collection and ecological theory. Here we review current and potential contributions of these fields to a demographic understanding of niches and range dynamics. Our review serves to formulate a demographic research agenda that entails: (1) advances in incorporating process-based models of demographic responses and range dynamics into a statistical framework, (2) systematic collection of data on temporal changes in distribution and abundance and on the response of demographic rates to environmental variation, and (3) improved theoretical understanding of the scaling of demographic rates and the dynamics of spatially coupled populations. This demographic research agenda is challenging but necessary for improved comprehension and quantification of niches and range dynamics. It also forms the basis for understanding how niches and range dynamics are shaped by evolutionary dynamics and biotic interactions. Ultimately, the demographic research agenda should lead to deeper integration of biogeography with empirical and theoretical ecology.
Within the field of species distribution modelling an apparent dichotomy exists between process-based and correlative approaches, where the processes are explicit in the former and implicit in the latter. However, these intuitive distinctions can become blurred when comparing species distribution modelling approaches in more detail. In this review article, we contrast the extremes of the correlativeprocess spectrum of species distribution models with respect to core assumptions, model building and selection strategies, validation, uncertainties, common errors and the questions they are most suited to answer. The extremes of such approaches differ clearly in many aspects, such as model building approaches, parameter estimation strategies and transferability. However, they also share strengths and weaknesses. We show that claims of one approach being intrinsically superior to the other are misguided and that they ignore the processcorrelation continuum as well as the domains of questions that each approach is addressing. Nonetheless, the application of process-based approaches to species distribution modelling lags far behind more correlative (process-implicit) methods and more research is required to explore their potential benefits. Critical issues for the employment of species distribution modelling approaches are given, together with a guideline for appropriate usage. We close with challenges for future development of process-explicit species distribution models and how they may complement current approaches to study species distributions.
We review the geodynamic evolution of the Aegean-Anatolia region and discuss strain localisation there over geological times. From Late Eocene to Present, crustal deformation in the Aegean backarc has localised progressively during slab retreat. Extension started with the formation of the Rhodope Metamorphic Core Complex (Eocene) and migrated to the Cyclades and the northern Menderes Massif (Oligocene and Miocene), accommodated by crustal-scale detachments and a first series of core complexes (MCCs). Extension then localised in Western Turkey, the Corinth Rift and the external Hellenic arc after Messinian times, while the North Anatolian Fault penetrated the Aegean Sea. Through time the direction and style of extension have not changed significantly except in terms of localisation. The contributions of progressive slab retreat and tearing, basal drag, extrusion tectonics and tectonic inheritance are discussed and we favour a model (I) where slab retreat is the main driving engine, (2) successive slab tearing episodes are the main causes of this stepwise strain localisation and (3) the inherited heterogeneity of the crust is a major factor for localising detachments. The continental crust has an inherited strong heterogeneity and crustal-scale contacts such as major thrust planes act as weak zones or as zones of contrast of resistance and viscosity that can localise later deformation. The dynamics of slabs at depth and the asthenospheric flow due to slab retreat also have influence strain localisation in the upper plate. Successive slab ruptures from the Middle Miocene to the late Miocene have isolated a narrow strip of lithosphere, still attached to the African lithosphere below Crete. The formation of the North Anatolian Fault is partly a consequence of this evolution. The extrusion of Anatolia and the Aegean extension are partly driven from below (asthenospheric flow) and from above (extrusion of a lid of rigid crust).
The multiple high-pressure (HP), low-temperature (LT) metamorphic units of Western and Central Anatolia offer a great opportunity to investigate the subduction-and continental accretion-related evolution of the eastern limb of the long-lived Aegean subduction system. Recent reports of the HP-LT index mineral Fe-Mg-carpholite in three metasedimentary units of the Gondwana-derived Anatolide-Tauride continental block (namely the Afyon Zone, the Oren Unit and the southern Menderes Massif) suggest a more complicated scenario than the single-continental accretion model generally put forward in previous studies. This study presents the first isotopic dates (white mica Ar-40-Ar-39 geochronology), and where possible are combined with P-T estimates (chlorite thermometry, phengite barometry, multi-equilibrium thermobarometry), on carpholite-bearing rocks from these three HP-LT metasedimentary units. It is shown that, in the Afyon Zone, carpholite-bearing assemblages were retrogressed through greenschist-facies conditions at c. 67-62 Ma. Early retrograde stages in the Oren Unit are dated to 63-59 Ma. In the Kurudere-Nebiler Unit (HP Mesozoic cover of the southern Menderes Massif), HP retrograde stages are dated to c. 45 Ma, and post-collisional cooling to c. 26 Ma. These new results support that the Oren Unit represents the westernmost continuation of the Afyon Zone, whereas the Kurudere-Nebiler Unit correlates with the Cycladic Blueschist Unit of the Aegean Domain. In Western Anatolia, three successive HP-LT metamorphic belts thus formed: the northernmost Tavsanli Zone (c. 88-82 Ma), the Oren-Afyon Zone (between 70 and 65 Ma), and the Kurudere-Nebiler Unit (c. 52-45 Ma). The southward younging trend of the HP-LT metamorphism from the upper and internal to the deeper and more external structural units, as in the Aegean Domain, points to the persistence of subduction in Western Anatolia between 93-90 and c. 35 Ma. After the accretion of the Menderes-Tauride terrane, in Eocene times, subduction stopped, leading to continental collision and associated Barrovian-type metamorphism. Because, by contrast, the Aegean subduction did remain active due to slab roll-back and trench migration, the eastern limb (below Southwestern Anatolia) of the Hellenic slab was dramatically curved and consequently teared. It therefore is suggested that the possibility for subduction to continue after the accretion of buoyant (e.g. continental) terranes probably depends much on palaeogeography.
The Shanderman eclogites and related metamorphosed oceanic rocks mark the site of closure of the Palaeotethys ocean in northern Iran. The protolith of the eclogites was an oceanic tholeiitic basalt with MORB composition. Eclogite occurs within a serpentinite matrix, accompanied by mafic rocks resembling a dismembered ophiolite. The eclogitic mafic rocks record different stages of metamorphism during subduction and exhumation. Minerals formed during the prograde stages are preserved as inclusions in peak metamorphic garnet and omphacite. The rocks experienced blueschist facies metamorphism on their prograde path and were metamorphosed in eclogite facies at the peak of metamorphism. The peak metamorphic mineral paragenesis of the rocks is omphacite, garnet (pyrope-rich), glaucophane, paragonite, zoisite and rutile. Based on textural relations, post-peak stages can be divided into amphibolite and greenschist facies. Pressure and temperature estimates for eclogite facies minerals (peak of metamorphism) indicate 15-20kbar at similar to 600 degrees C. The pre-peak blueschist facies assemblage yields <11kbar and 400-460 degrees C. The average pressure and temperature of the post-peak amphibolite stage was 5-6kbar, similar to 470 degrees C. The Shanderman eclogites were formed by subduction of Palaeotethys oceanic crust to a depth of no more than 75km. Subduction was followed by collision between the Central Iran and Turan blocks, and then exhumation of the high pressure rocks in northern Iran.
Based on joint consideration of S receiver functions and surface-wave anisotropy we present evidence for the existence of a thick and layered lithosphere beneath the Kalahari Craton. Our results show that frozen-in anisotropy and compositional changes can generate sharp Mid-Lithospheric Discontinuities (MLD) at depths of 85 and 150-200 km, respectively. We found that a 50 km thick anisotropic layer, containing 3% S wave anisotropy and with a fast-velocity axis different from that in the layer beneath, can account for the first MLD at about 85 km depth. Significant correlation between the depths of an apparent boundary separating the depleted and metasomatised lithosphere, as inferred from chemical tomography, and those of our second MLD led us to characterize it as a compositional boundary, most likely due to the modification of the cratonic mantle lithosphere by magma infiltration. The deepening of this boundary from 150 to 200 km is spatially correlated with the surficial expression of the Thabazimbi-Murchison Lineament (TML), implying that the TML isolates the lithosphere of the Limpopo terrane from that of the ancient Kaapvaal terrane. The largest velocity contrast (3.6-4.7%) is observed at a boundary located at depths of 260-280 km beneath the Archean domains and the older Proterozoic belt. This boundary most likely represents the lithosphere-asthenosphere boundary, which shallows to about 200 km beneath the younger Proterozoic belt. Thus, the Kalahari lithosphere may have survived multiple episodes of intense magmatism and collisional rifting during the billions of years of its history, which left their imprint in its internal layering.
In this study three new maps of Moho depths beneath the Arabian plate and margins are presented. The first map is based on the combined gravity model, EIGEN 06C, which includes data from satellite missions and ground-based studies, and thus covers the whole region between 31 degrees E and 60 inverted perpendicular E and between 12 degrees N and 36 degrees N. The second map is based on seismological and ground-based gravity data while the third map is based only on seismological data. Both these maps show gaps due to lack of data coverage especially in the interior of the Arabian plate. Beneath the interior of the Arabian plate the Moho lies between 32 and 45 km depth below sea level. There is a tendency for higher Pn and Sn velocities beneath the northeastern parts of the plate interior with respect to the southwestern parts of the plate interior. Across the northern, destructive margin with the Eurasian plate, the Moho depths increase to over 50 km beneath the Zagros mountains. Across the conservative western margin, the Dead Sea Transform (DST). Moho depths decrease from almost 40 km beneath the highlands east of the DST to about 21-23 km under the southeastern Mediterranean Sea. This decrease seems to be modulated by a slight depression in the Moho beneath the southern DST. The constructive southwestern and southeastern margins of the Arabian plate also show the Moho shallowing from the plate interior towards the plate boundaries. A comparison of the abruptness of the Moho shallowing between the margins of the Arabian plate, the conjugate African margin at 26 degrees N and several Atlantic margins shows a complex picture and suggests that the abruptness of the Moho shallowing may reflect fundamental differences in the original structure of the margins. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.