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The Groningen gas field serves as a natural laboratory for production-induced earthquakes, because no earthquakes were observed before the beginning of gas production. Increasing gas production rates resulted in growing earthquake activity and eventually in the occurrence of the 2012M(w) 3.6 Huizinge earthquake. At least since this event, a detailed seismic hazard and risk assessment including estimation of the maximum earthquake magnitude is considered to be necessary to decide on the future gas production. In this short note, we first apply state-of-the-art methods of mathematical statistics to derive confidence intervals for the maximum possible earthquake magnitude m(max). Second, we calculate the maximum expected magnitude M-T in the time between 2016 and 2024 for three assumed gas-production scenarios. Using broadly accepted physical assumptions and 90% confidence level, we suggest a value of m(max) 4.4, whereas M-T varies between 3.9 and 4.3, depending on the production scenario.
In the present study, we summarize and evaluate the endeavors from recent years to estimate the maximum possible earthquake magnitude m(max) from observed data. In particular, we use basic and physically motivated assumptions to identify best cases and worst cases in terms of lowest and highest degree of uncertainty of m(max). In a general framework, we demonstrate that earthquake data and earthquake proxy data recorded in a fault zone provide almost no information about m(max) unless reliable and homogeneous data of a long time interval, including several earthquakes with magnitude close to m(max), are available. Even if detailed earthquake information from some centuries including historic and paleoearthquakes are given, only very few, namely the largest events, will contribute at all to the estimation of m(max), and this results in unacceptably high uncertainties. As a consequence, estimators of m(max) in a fault zone, which are based solely on earthquake-related information from this region, have to be dismissed.
Estimability in Cox models
(2016)
Our procedure of estimating is the maximum partial likelihood estimate (MPLE) which is the appropriate estimate in the Cox model with a general censoring distribution, covariates and an unknown baseline hazard rate . We find conditions for estimability and asymptotic estimability. The asymptotic variance matrix of the MPLE is represented and properties are discussed.
In many statistical applications, the aim is to model the relationship between covariates and some outcomes. A choice of the appropriate model depends on the outcome and the research objectives, such as linear models for continuous outcomes, logistic models for binary outcomes and the Cox model for time-to-event data. In epidemiological, medical, biological, societal and economic studies, the logistic regression is widely used to describe the relationship between a response variable as binary outcome and explanatory variables as a set of covariates. However, epidemiologic cohort studies are quite expensive regarding data management since following up a large number of individuals takes long time. Therefore, the case-cohort design is applied to reduce cost and time for data collection. The case-cohort sampling collects a small random sample from the entire cohort, which is called subcohort. The advantage of this design is that the covariate and follow-up data are recorded only on the subcohort and all cases (all members of the cohort who develop the event of interest during the follow-up process).
In this thesis, we investigate the estimation in the logistic model for case-cohort design. First, a model with a binary response and a binary covariate is considered. The maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) is described and its asymptotic properties are established. An estimator for the asymptotic variance of the estimator based on the maximum likelihood approach is proposed; this estimator differs slightly from the estimator introduced by Prentice (1986). Simulation results for several proportions of the subcohort show that the proposed estimator gives lower empirical bias and empirical variance than Prentice's estimator.
Then the MLE in the logistic regression with discrete covariate under case-cohort design is studied. Here the approach of the binary covariate model is extended. Proving asymptotic normality of estimators, standard errors for the estimators can be derived. The simulation study demonstrates the estimation procedure of the logistic regression model with a one-dimensional discrete covariate. Simulation results for several proportions of the subcohort and different choices of the underlying parameters indicate that the estimator developed here performs reasonably well. Moreover, the comparison between theoretical values and simulation results of the asymptotic variance of estimator is presented.
Clearly, the logistic regression is sufficient for the binary outcome refers to be available for all subjects and for a fixed time interval. Nevertheless, in practice, the observations in clinical trials are frequently collected for different time periods and subjects may drop out or relapse from other causes during follow-up. Hence, the logistic regression is not appropriate for incomplete follow-up data; for example, an individual drops out of the study before the end of data collection or an individual has not occurred the event of interest for the duration of the study. These observations are called censored observations. The survival analysis is necessary to solve these problems. Moreover, the time to the occurence of the event of interest is taken into account. The Cox model has been widely used in survival analysis, which can effectively handle the censored data. Cox (1972) proposed the model which is focused on the hazard function. The Cox model is assumed to be
λ(t|x) = λ0(t) exp(β^Tx)
where λ0(t) is an unspecified baseline hazard at time t and X is the vector of covariates, β is a p-dimensional vector of coefficient.
In this thesis, the Cox model is considered under the view point of experimental design. The estimability of the parameter β0 in the Cox model, where β0 denotes the true value of β, and the choice of optimal covariates are investigated. We give new representations of the observed information matrix In(β) and extend results for the Cox model of Andersen and Gill (1982). In this way conditions for the estimability of β0 are formulated. Under some regularity conditions, ∑ is the inverse of the asymptotic variance matrix of the MPLE of β0 in the Cox model and then some properties of the asymptotic variance matrix of the MPLE are highlighted. Based on the results of asymptotic estimability, the calculation of local optimal covariates is considered and shown in examples. In a sensitivity analysis, the efficiency of given covariates is calculated. For neighborhoods of the exponential models, the efficiencies have then been found. It is appeared that for fixed parameters β0, the efficiencies do not change very much for different baseline hazard functions. Some proposals for applicable optimal covariates and a calculation procedure for finding optimal covariates are discussed.
Furthermore, the extension of the Cox model where time-dependent coefficient are allowed, is investigated. In this situation, the maximum local partial likelihood estimator for estimating the coefficient function β(·) is described. Based on this estimator, we formulate a new test procedure for testing, whether a one-dimensional coefficient function β(·) has a prespecified parametric form, say β(·; ϑ). The score function derived from the local constant partial likelihood function at d distinct grid points is considered. It is shown that the distribution of the properly standardized quadratic form of this d-dimensional vector under the null hypothesis tends to a Chi-squared distribution. Moreover, the limit statement remains true when replacing the unknown ϑ0 by the MPLE in the hypothetical model and an asymptotic α-test is given by the quantiles or p-values of the limiting Chi-squared distribution. Finally, we propose a bootstrap version of this test. The bootstrap test is only defined for the special case of testing whether the coefficient function is constant. A simulation study illustrates the behavior of the bootstrap test under the null hypothesis and a special alternative. It gives quite good results for the chosen underlying model.
References
P. K. Andersen and R. D. Gill. Cox's regression model for counting processes: a large samplestudy. Ann. Statist., 10(4):1100{1120, 1982.
D. R. Cox. Regression models and life-tables. J. Roy. Statist. Soc. Ser. B, 34:187{220, 1972.
R. L. Prentice. A case-cohort design for epidemiologic cohort studies and disease prevention trials. Biometrika, 73(1):1{11, 1986.
We describe a natural construction of deformation quantization on a compact symplectic manifold with boundary. On the algebra of quantum observables a trace functional is defined which as usual annihilates the commutators. This gives rise to an index as the trace of the unity element. We formulate the index theorem as a conjecture and examine it by the classical harmonic oscillator.
Low Earth orbiting geomagnetic satellite missions, such as the Swarm satellite mission, are the only means to monitor and investigate ionospheric currents on a global scale and to make in situ measurements of F region currents. High-precision geomagnetic satellite missions are also able to detect ionospheric currents during quiet-time geomagnetic conditions that only have few nanotesla amplitudes in the magnetic field. An efficient method to isolate the ionospheric signals from satellite magnetic field measurements has been the use of residuals between the observations and predictions from empirical geomagnetic models for other geomagnetic sources, such as the core and lithospheric field or signals from the quiet-time magnetospheric currents. This study aims at highlighting the importance of high-resolution magnetic field models that are able to predict the lithospheric field and that consider the quiet-time magnetosphere for reliably isolating signatures from ionospheric currents during geomagnetically quiet times. The effects on the detection of ionospheric currents arising from neglecting the lithospheric and magnetospheric sources are discussed on the example of four Swarm orbits during very quiet times. The respective orbits show a broad range of typical scenarios, such as strong and weak ionospheric signal (during day- and nighttime, respectively) superimposed over strong and weak lithospheric signals. If predictions from the lithosphere or magnetosphere are not properly considered, the amplitude of the ionospheric currents, such as the midlatitude Sq currents or the equatorial electrojet (EEJ), is modulated by 10-15 % in the examples shown. An analysis from several orbits above the African sector, where the lithospheric field is significant, showed that the peak value of the signatures of the EEJ is in error by 5 % in average when lithospheric contributions are not considered, which is in the range of uncertainties of present empirical models of the EEJ.
This survey on the theme of Geometry Education (including new technologies) focuses chiefly on the time span since 2008. Based on our review of the research literature published during this time span (in refereed journal articles, conference proceedings and edited books), we have jointly identified seven major threads of contributions that span from the early years of learning (pre-school and primary school) through to post-compulsory education and to the issue of mathematics teacher education for geometry. These threads are as follows: developments and trends in the use of theories; advances in the understanding of visuo spatial reasoning; the use and role of diagrams and gestures; advances in the understanding of the role of digital technologies; advances in the understanding of the teaching and learning of definitions; advances in the understanding of the teaching and learning of the proving process; and, moving beyond traditional Euclidean approaches. Within each theme, we identify relevant research and also offer commentary on future directions.
The paper deals with Sigma-composition and Sigma-essential composition of terms which lead to stable and s-stable varieties of algebras. A full description of all stable varieties of semigroups, commutative and idempotent groupoids is obtained. We use an abstract reduction system which simplifies the presentations of terms of type tau - (2) to study the variety of idempotent groupoids and s-stable varieties of groupoids. S-stable varieties are a variation of stable varieties, used to highlight replacement of subterms of a term in a deductive system instead of the usual replacement of variables by terms.
We consider the Navier-Stokes equations in the layer R^n x [0,T] over R^n with finite T > 0. Using the standard fundamental solutions of the Laplace operator and the heat operator, we reduce the Navier-Stokes equations to a nonlinear Fredholm equation of the form (I+K) u = f, where K is a compact continuous operator in anisotropic normed Hölder spaces weighted at the point at infinity with respect to the space variables. Actually, the weight function is included to provide a finite energy estimate for solutions to the Navier-Stokes equations for all t in [0,T]. On using the particular properties of the de Rham complex we conclude that the Fréchet derivative (I+K)' is continuously invertible at each point of the Banach space under consideration and the map I+K is open and injective in the space. In this way the Navier-Stokes equations prove to induce an open one-to-one mapping in the scale of Hölder spaces.
We use a dynamic scanning electron microscope (DySEM) to map the spatial distribution of the vibration of a cantilever beam. The DySEM measurements are based on variations of the local secondary electron signal within the imaging electron beam diameter during an oscillation period of the cantilever. For this reason, the surface of a cantilever without topography or material variation does not allow any conclusions about the spatial distribution of vibration due to a lack of dynamic contrast. In order to overcome this limitation, artificial structures were added at defined positions on the cantilever surface using focused ion beam lithography patterning. The DySEM signal of such high-contrast structures is strongly improved, hence information about the surface vibration becomes accessible. Simulations of images of the vibrating cantilever have also been performed. The results of the simulation are in good agreement with the experimental images.
The main results of this thesis are formulated in a class of surfaces (varifolds) generalizing closed and connected smooth submanifolds of Euclidean space which allows singularities. Given an indecomposable varifold with dimension at least two in some Euclidean space such that the first variation is locally bounded, the total variation is absolutely continuous with respect to the weight measure, the density of the weight measure is at least one outside a set of weight measure zero and the generalized mean curvature is locally summable to a natural power (dimension of the varifold minus one) with respect to the weight measure. The thesis presents an improved estimate of the set where the lower density is small in terms of the one dimensional Hausdorff measure. Moreover, if the support of the weight measure is compact, then the intrinsic diameter with respect to the support of the weight measure is estimated in terms of the generalized mean curvature. This estimate is in analogy to the diameter control for closed connected manifolds smoothly immersed in some Euclidean space of Peter Topping. Previously, it was not known whether the hypothesis in this thesis implies that two points in the support of the weight measure have finite geodesic distance.
Numerous reports of relatively rapid climate changes over the past century make a clear case of the impact of aerosols and clouds, identified as sources of largest uncertainty in climate projections. Earth’s radiation balance is altered by aerosols depending on their size, morphology and chemical composition. Competing effects in the atmosphere can be further studied by investigating the evolution of aerosol microphysical properties, which are the focus of the present work.
The aerosol size distribution, the refractive index, and the single scattering albedo are commonly used such properties linked to aerosol type, and radiative forcing. Highly advanced lidars (light detection and ranging) have reduced aerosol monitoring and optical profiling into a routine process. Lidar data have been widely used to retrieve the size distribution through the inversion of the so-called Lorenz-Mie model (LMM). This model offers a reasonable treatment for spherically approximated particles, it no longer provides, though, a viable description for other naturally occurring arbitrarily shaped particles, such as dust particles. On the other hand, non-spherical geometries as simple as spheroids reproduce certain optical properties with enhanced accuracy. Motivated by this, we adapt the LMM to accommodate the spheroid-particle approximation introducing the notion of a two-dimensional (2D) shape-size distribution.
Inverting only a few optical data points to retrieve the shape-size distribution is classified as a non-linear ill-posed problem. A brief mathematical analysis is presented which reveals the inherent tendency towards highly oscillatory solutions, explores the available options for a generalized solution through regularization methods and quantifies the ill-posedness. The latter will improve our understanding on the main cause fomenting instability in the produced solution spaces. The new approach facilitates the exploitation of additional lidar data points from depolarization measurements, associated with particle non-sphericity. However, the generalization of LMM vastly increases the complexity of the problem. The underlying theory for the calculation of the involved optical cross sections (T-matrix theory) is computationally so costly, that would limit a retrieval analysis to an unpractical point. Moreover the discretization of the model equation by a 2D collocation method, proposed in this work, involves double integrations which are further time consuming. We overcome these difficulties by using precalculated databases and a sophisticated retrieval software (SphInX: Spheroidal Inversion eXperiments) especially developed for our purposes, capable of performing multiple-dataset inversions and producing a wide range of microphysical retrieval outputs.
Hybrid regularization in conjunction with minimization processes is used as a basis for our algorithms. Synthetic data retrievals are performed simulating various atmospheric scenarios in order to test the efficiency of different regularization methods. The gap in contemporary literature in providing full sets of uncertainties in a wide variety of numerical instances is of major concern here. For this, the most appropriate methods are identified through a thorough analysis on an overall-behavior basis regarding accuracy and stability. The general trend of the initial size distributions is captured in our numerical experiments and the reconstruction quality depends on data error level. Moreover, the need for more or less depolarization points is explored for the first time from the point of view of the microphysical retrieval. Finally, our approach is tested in various measurement cases giving further insight for future algorithm improvements.
Convoluted Brownian motion
(2016)
In this paper we analyse semimartingale properties of a class of Gaussian periodic processes, called convoluted Brownian motions, obtained by convolution between a deterministic function and a Brownian motion. A classical
example in this class is the periodic Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. We compute their characteristics and show that in general, they are neither
Markovian nor satisfy a time-Markov field property. Nevertheless, by enlargement
of filtration and/or addition of a one-dimensional component, one can in some case recover the Markovianity. We treat exhaustively the case of the bidimensional trigonometric convoluted Brownian motion and the higher-dimensional monomial convoluted Brownian motion.
This work is devoted to the convergence analysis of a modified Runge-Kutta-type iterative regularization method for solving nonlinear ill-posed problems under a priori and a posteriori stopping rules. The convergence rate results of the proposed method can be obtained under a Holder-type sourcewise condition if the Frechet derivative is properly scaled and locally Lipschitz continuous. Numerical results are achieved by using the Levenberg-Marquardt, Lobatto, and Radau methods.
Lyapunov Exponents
(2016)
Lyapunov exponents lie at the heart of chaos theory, and are widely used in studies of complex dynamics. Utilising a pragmatic, physical approach, this self-contained book provides a comprehensive description of the concept. Beginning with the basic properties and numerical methods, it then guides readers through to the most recent advances in applications to complex systems. Practical algorithms are thoroughly reviewed and their performance is discussed, while a broad set of examples illustrate the wide range of potential applications. The description of various numerical and analytical techniques for the computation of Lyapunov exponents offers an extensive array of tools for the characterization of phenomena such as synchronization, weak and global chaos in low and high-dimensional set-ups, and localization. This text equips readers with all the investigative expertise needed to fully explore the dynamical properties of complex systems, making it ideal for both graduate students and experienced researchers.
For point processes we establish a link between integration-by-parts-and splitting-formulas which can also be considered as integration-by-parts-formulas of a new type. First we characterize finite Papangelou processes in terms of their splitting kernels. The main part then consists in extending these results to the case of infinitely extended Papangelou and, in particular, Polya and Gibbs processes. (C) 2015 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim
We present a summary on the current status of two inversion algorithms that are used in EARLINET (European Aerosol Research Lidar Network) for the inversion of data collected with EARLINET multiwavelength Raman lidars. These instruments measure backscatter coefficients at 355, 532, and 1064 nm, and extinction coefficients at 355 and 532 nm. Development of these two algorithms started in 2000 when EARLINET was founded. The algorithms are based on a manually controlled inversion of optical data which allows for detailed sensitivity studies. The algorithms allow us to derive particle effective radius as well as volume and surface area concentration with comparably high confidence. The retrieval of the real and imaginary parts of the complex refractive index still is a challenge in view of the accuracy required for these parameters in climate change studies in which light absorption needs to be known with high accuracy. It is an extreme challenge to retrieve the real part with an accuracy better than 0.05 and the imaginary part with accuracy better than 0.005-0.1 or +/- 50 %. Single-scattering albedo can be computed from the retrieved microphysical parameters and allows us to categorize aerosols into high-and low-absorbing aerosols. On the basis of a few exemplary simulations with synthetic optical data we discuss the current status of these manually operated algorithms, the potentially achievable accuracy of data products, and the goals for future work. One algorithm was used with the purpose of testing how well microphysical parameters can be derived if the real part of the complex refractive index is known to at least 0.05 or 0.1. The other algorithm was used to find out how well microphysical parameters can be derived if this constraint for the real part is not applied. The optical data used in our study cover a range of Angstrom exponents and extinction-to-backscatter (lidar) ratios that are found from lidar measurements of various aerosol types. We also tested aerosol scenarios that are considered highly unlikely, e.g. the lidar ratios fall outside the commonly accepted range of values measured with Raman lidar, even though the underlying microphysical particle properties are not uncommon. The goal of this part of the study is to test the robustness of the algorithms towards their ability to identify aerosol types that have not been measured so far, but cannot be ruled out based on our current knowledge of aerosol physics. We computed the optical data from monomodal logarithmic particle size distributions, i.e. we explicitly excluded the more complicated case of bimodal particle size distributions which is a topic of ongoing research work. Another constraint is that we only considered particles of spherical shape in our simulations. We considered particle radii as large as 7-10 mu m in our simulations where the Potsdam algorithm is limited to the lower value. We considered optical-data errors of 15% in the simulation studies. We target 50% uncertainty as a reasonable threshold for our data products, though we attempt to obtain data products with less uncertainty in future work.