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Background: The worldwide prevalence of diabetes has been increasing in recent years, with a projected prevalence of 700 million patients by 2045, leading to economic burdens on societies. Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), representing more than 95% of all diabetes cases, is a multifactorial metabolic disorder characterized by insulin resistance leading to an imbalance between insulin requirements and supply. Overweight and obesity are the main risk factors for developing type 2 diabetes mellitus. The lifestyle modification of following a healthy diet and physical activity are the primary successful treatment and prevention methods for type 2 diabetes mellitus. Problems may exist with patients not achieving recommended levels of physical activity. Electrical muscle stimulation (EMS) is an increasingly popular training method and has become in the focus of research in recent years. It involves the external application of an electric field to muscles, which can lead to muscle contraction. Positive effects of EMS training have been found in healthy individuals as well as in various patient groups. New EMS devices offer a wide range of mobile applications for whole-body electrical muscle stimulation (WB-EMS) training, e.g., the intensification of dynamic low-intensity endurance exercises through WB-EMS. This dissertation project aims to investigate whether WB-EMS is suitable for intensifying low-intensive dynamic exercises such as walking and Nordic walking.
Methods: Two independent studies were conducted. The first study aimed to investigate the reliability of exercise parameters during the 10-meter Incremental Shuttle Walk Test (10MISWT) using superimposed WB-EMS (research question 1, sub-question a) and the difference in exercise intensity compared to conventional walking (CON-W, research question 1, sub-question b). The second study aimed to compare differences in exercise parameters between superimposed WB-EMS (WB-EMS-W) and conventional walking (CON-W), as well as between superimposed WB-EMS (WB-EMS-NW) and conventional Nordic walking (CON-NW) on a treadmill (research question 2). Both studies took place in participant groups of healthy, moderately active men aged 35-70 years. During all measurements, the Easy Motion Skin® WB-EMS low frequency stimulation device with adjustable intensities for eight muscle groups was used. The current intensity was individually adjusted for each participant at each trial to ensure safety, avoiding pain and muscle cramps. In study 1, thirteen individuals were included for each sub question. A randomized cross-over design with three measurement appointments used was to avoid confounding factors such as delayed onset muscle soreness. The 10MISWT was performed until the participants no longer met the criteria of the test and recording five outcome measures: peak oxygen uptake (VO2peak), relative VO2peak (rel.VO2peak), maximum walk distance (MWD), blood lactate concentration, and the rate of perceived exertion (RPE).
Eleven participants were included in study 2. A randomized cross-over design in a study with four measurement appointments was used to avoid confounding factors. A treadmill test protocol at constant velocity (6.5 m/s) was developed to compare exercise intensities. Oxygen uptake (VO2), relative VO2 (rel.VO2) blood lactate, and the RPE were used as outcome variables. Test-retest reliability between measurements was determined using a compilation of absolute and relative measures of reliability. Outcome measures in study 2 were studied using multifactorial analyses of variances.
Results: Reliability analysis showed good reliability for VO2peak, rel.VO2peak, MWD and RPE with no statistically significant difference for WB-EMS-W during 10WISWT. However, differences compared to conventional walking in outcome variables were not found. The analysis of the treadmill tests showed significant effects for the factors CON/WB-EMS and W/NW for the outcome variables VO2, rel.VO2 and lactate, with both factors leading to higher results. However, the difference in VO2 and relative VO2 is within the range of biological variability of ± 12%. The factor combination EMS∗W/NW is statistically non-significant for all three variables. WB-EMS resulted in the higher RPE values, RPE differences for W/NW and EMS∗W/NW were not significant.
Discussion: The present project found good reliability for measuring VO2peak, rel. VO2peak, MWD and RPE during 10MISWT during WB-EMS-W, confirming prior research of the test. The test appears technically limited rather than physiologically in healthy, moderately active men. However, it is unsuitable for investigating differences in exercise intensities using WB-EMS-W compared to CON-W due to different perceptions of current intensity between exercise and rest. A treadmill test with constant walking speed was conducted to adjust individual maximum tolerable current intensity for the second part of the project. The treadmill test showed a significant increase in metabolic demands during WB-EMS-W and WB-EMS-NW by an increased VO2 and blood lactate concentration. However, the clinical relevance of these findings remains debatable. The study also found that WB-EMS superimposed exercises are perceived as more strenuous than conventional exercise. While in parts comparable studies lead to higher results for VO2, our results are in line with those of other studies using the same frequency. Due to the minor clinical relevance the use of WB-EMS as exercise intensification tool during walking and Nordic walking is limited. High device cost should be considered. Habituation to WB-EMS could increase current intensity tolerance and VO2 and make it a meaningful method in the treatment of T2DM. Recent figures show that WB-EMS is used in obese people to achieve health and weight goals. The supposed benefit should be further investigated scientifically.
Dieses Buch geht der Frage nach, aus welchen Gründen im Berlin des Jahres 1845 mit der »Genossenschaft für Reform im Judenthum« die womöglich bis heute radikalste Ausprägung jüdischer Reform entstand. Dazu werden die Hauptwerke Sigismund Sterns (1812–1867), des Gründers der Bewegung, erstmals systematisch dargestellt und zeitgeschichtlich eingeordnet. Die Studie macht deutlich, dass die Gründung der Genossenschaft nur im Kontext der vielfältigen, gesamtgesellschaftlichen und innerjüdischen, religiösen und politischen Umwälzungen im Vormärz und deren theoretisch-diskursivem Unterbau verstanden werden kann. Das Aufkommen der Bewegung und das jähe Verklingen ihrer Vitalität nach 1848 erweisen sich dabei als Spiegel der komplexen Verflechtungszusammenhänge deutsch-jüdischen philosophisch-theologischen Denkens im 19. Jahrhundert.
Krankheitsängste in verschiedenen Populationen und die Effektivität ambulanter Verhaltenstheraphie
(2023)
Dentro de la cuenca intermontana de Quito-Guay llabamba de Ecuador, se han identificado y analizado en este estudio, cinco depósitos coluviales inusualmente grandes de antiguos deslizamientos. El gran deslizamiento rotacional MM-5 Guayllabamba es el más extenso, con un volumen de 1183 millones de m3. Las mega avalanchas de escombros MM-1 Conocoto, MM-3 Oyacoto, y MM-4 San Francisco fueron desencadenadas originalmente por una ruptura inicial que estuvo asociada a un deslizamiento rotacional, los depósitos correspondientes tienen volúmenes entre 399 a 317 millones de m3. Finalmente, el depósito de menor volumen, el deslizamiento rotacional y caída de detritos MM-2 Batán, tiene un volumen de 8,7 millones de m3. En esta tesis, se realizó un estudio detallado de estos grandes movimientos en masa utilizando métodos neotectónicos y lito-tefrostratigráficos para comprender las condiciones geológicas y geomorfológicas de contorno que podrían ser relevantes para desencadenar estos movimientos en masa. La parte neotectónica del estudio se basó en el análisis geomorfológico cualitativo y cuantitativo de estos grandes depósitos de movimientos en masa, a través de la caracterización estructural de anticlinales ubicados al este de la subcuenca de Quito y sus flancos colapsados que constituyen las áreas de ruptura. Esta parte del análisis fue además apoyada por la aplicación de diferentes índices morfométricos para revelar procesos de evolución del paisaje forzados tectónicamente que pueden haber contribuido a la generación de movimientos en masa. La parte lito-tefrostratigráfica del estudio se basó en el análisis de las características petrográficas, geoquímicas y geocronológicas de los horizontes del suelo y de las cenizas volcánicas intercaladas, con el objetivo de restringir la cronología de los eventos individuales de movimientos en masa y su posible de correlación. Los resultados se integraron en esquemas cronoestratigráficos utilizando superficies de ruptura, relaciones transversales y de superposición de depósitos de deslizamiento y estratos posteriores para comprender los movimientos en masa en el contexto tectónico y temporal del entorno de la cuenca intermontana, así como para identificar los mecanismos desencadenantes de cada evento. El movimiento en masa MM-5 Guayllabamba es el resultado del colapso de la ladera suroeste del volcán Mojanda y fue desencadenado por la interacción de condiciones geológicas y morfológicas hace aproximadamente 0,81 Ma. El primer episodio de avalancha de escombros de los movimientos en masa MM-3 Oyacoto y MM-4 San Francisco podría estar relacionado con condiciones tanto geológicas como morfológicas, dadas las rocas altamente fracturadas y el levantamiento del anticlinal Bellavista-Catequilla que posteriormente fue inciso al pie de la ladera por la erosión fluvial. Este primer episodio de colapso probablemente ocurrió alrededor de los 0,8 Ma. El movimiento en masa MM-2 Batán posiblemente también fue desencadenado por una combinación de condiciones geológicas y morfológicas, asociadas a una reducción de los esfuerzos litostáticos que afectaron a las formaciones Chiche y Machángara y a un aumento de los esfuerzos de cizalla durante procesos de socavación fluvial lateral en los flancos de las áreas de origen. Esto apunta a un proceso vinculado entre la erosión fluvial y los procesos de levantamiento asociados a la evolución del anticlinal El Batán-La Bota que podría haber ocurrido entre 0,5 y 0,25 Ma. La voluminosa avalancha de escombros MM-1 Conocoto, así como el segundo episodio de avalancha de escombros que generó los movimientos en masa MM-3 Oyacoto y MM-4 San Francisco, fueron provocados por el colapso gravitacional de las formaciones Mojanda y Cangahua que se caracterizan por la intercalación de cenizas volcánicas. La falla del flanco oriental de los anticlinales probablemente estuvo asociada al incremento de la humedad disponible relacionada con las variaciones climáticas regionales del Holoceno. Los resultados de la cronología de los paleosuelos combinados con los datos cronoestratigráficos y paleoclimáticos regionales sugieren que estas avalanchas de escombros se desencadenaron entre 5 y 4 ka.
La tectónica activa ha modelado los rasgos morfológicos de la cuenca intermontana Quito-Guayllabamba. El desencadenamiento de movimientos en masa en este ambiente está asociado a rupturas en litologías del Pleistoceno (sedimentos lacustres, depósitos aluviales y volcánicos) sometidas a procesos de deformación, actividad sísmica y episodios superpuestos de variabilidad climática. El Distrito Metropolitano de Quito es parte integral de este complejo entorno y de las condiciones geológicas, climáticas y topográficas que continúan influyendo en el espacio geográfico urbano dentro de esta cuenca intermontana. La ciudad de Quito comprende el área de mayor consolidación urbana incluyendo las subcuencas de Quito y San Antonio, con una población de 2,872 millones de habitantes, lo que refleja la importancia del estudio de las amenazas geológicas y climáticas inherentes a esta región.
Food Neophilie
(2023)
Trotz der eindeutigen Vorteile einer ausgewogenen Ernährung halten sich viele Menschen weltweit nicht an entsprechende Ernährungsrichtlinien. Um angemessene Strategien zur Unterstützung einer gesundheitsfördernden Ernährung zu entwickeln, ist ein Verständnis der zugrunde liegenden Faktoren unerlässlich. Insbesondere die Gruppe der älteren Erwachsenen stellt dabei eine wichtige Zielgruppe für ernährungsbezogene Präventions- und Interventionsansätze dar. Einer der vielen Faktoren, die als Determinanten einer gesundheitsfördernden Ernährung diskutiert werden, ist die Food Neophilie, also die Bereitschaft, neue und unbekannte Lebensmittel auszuprobieren. Aktuelle Forschungsergebnisse legen nahe, dass die Food Neophilie positiv mit einer gesundheitsfördernden Ernährung in Verbindung steht, allerdings ist die bisherige Forschung in diesem Bereich äußerst begrenzt. Das Ziel der Dissertation war es, das Konstrukt der Food Neophilie sowie seine Beziehung zu gesundheitsförderndem Ernährungsverhalten im höheren Erwachsenenalter grundlegend zu erforschen, um das Potenzial der Food Neophilie für die Gesundheitsförderung älterer Erwachsener besser zu verstehen. Dabei wurde im Rahmen der ersten Publikation zunächst untersucht, wie sich das Konstrukt der Food Neophilie reliabel und valide erfassen lässt, um weiterführende Untersuchungen der Food Neophilie zu ermöglichen. Die psychometrische Validierung der deutschen Version der Variety Seeking Tendency Scale (VARSEEK) basierte auf zwei unabhängigen Stichproben mit insgesamt N = 1000 Teilnehmenden und bestätigte, dass es sich bei der Skala um ein reliables und valides Messinstrument zur Erfassung der Food Neophilie handelt. Darauf aufbauend wurde im Rahmen der zweiten Publikation die Beziehung der Food Neophilie und der Ernährungsqualität über die Zeit hinweg analysiert. Die prospektive Untersuchung von N = 960 Teilnehmenden des höheren Erwachsenenalters (M = 63.4 Jahre) anhand einer Cross-Lagged-Panel-Analyse ergab hohe zeitliche Stabilitäten der Food Neophilie und der Ernährungsqualität über einen Zeitraum von drei Jahren. Es zeigte sich zudem ein positiver querschnittlicher Zusammenhang zwischen der Food Neophilie und der Ernährungsqualität, jedoch wurde die Food Neophilie nicht als signifikante Determinante der Ernährungsqualität über die Zeit hinweg identifiziert. In der dritten Publikation wurden schließlich nicht nur die individuellen Auswirkungen der Food Neophilie auf die Ernährungsqualität betrachtet, sondern auch potenzielle dynamische Wechselwirkungen innerhalb von Partnerschaften einbezogen. Hierzu erfolgte mittels eines Actor-Partner-Interdependence-Modells eine Differenzierung potenzieller intra- und interpersoneller Einflüsse der Food Neophilie auf die Ernährungsqualität. Im Rahmen der dyadischen Analyse zeigte sich bei N = 390 heterosexuellen Paaren im höheren Erwachsenenalter (M = 64.0 Jahre) ein Dominanzmuster: Während die Food Neophilie der Frauen positiv mit ihrer eigenen Ernährungsqualität und der ihrer Partner zusammenhing, war die Food Neophilie der Männer nicht mit der Ernährungsqualität des Paares assoziiert. Insgesamt leistet die vorliegende Dissertation einen wertvollen Beitrag zum umfassenden Verständnis der Food Neophilie sowie ihrer Rolle im Kontext der Ernährungsgesundheit älterer Erwachsener. Trotz fehlender Vorhersagekraft über die Zeit hinweg deutet der positive Zusammenhang zwischen Food Neophilie und Ernährungsqualität darauf hin, dass die Fokussierung auf eine positive und neugierige Einstellung gegenüber Lebensmitteln eine innovative Perspektive für Präventions- und Interventionsansätze zur Unterstützung einer gesundheitsfördernden Ernährung älterer Erwachsener bieten könnte.
Watershed management requires an understanding of key hydrochemical processes. The Pra Basin is one of the five major river basins in Ghana with a population of over 4.2 million people. Currently, water resources management faces challenges due to surface water pollution caused by the unregulated release of untreated household and industrial waste into aquatic ecosystems and illegal mining activities. This has increased the need for groundwater as the most reliable water supply. Our understanding of groundwater recharge mechanisms and chemical evolution in the basin has been inadequate, making effective management difficult. Therefore, the main objective of this work is to gain insight into the processes that determine the hydrogeochemical evolution of groundwater quality in the Pra Basin. The combined use of stable isotope, hydrochemistry, and water level data provides the basis for conceptualizing the chemical evolution of groundwater in the Pra Basin. For this purpose, the origin and evaporation rates of water infiltrating into the unsaturated zone were evaluated. In addition, Chloride Mass Balance (CMB) and Water Table Fluctuations (WTF) were considered to quantify groundwater recharge for the basin. Indices such as water quality index (WQI), sodium adsorption ratio (SAR), Wilcox diagram, and salinity (USSL) were used in this study to determine the quality of the resource for use as drinking water and for irrigation purposes. Due to the heterogeneity of the hydrochemical data, the statistical techniques of hierarchical cluster and factor analysis were applied to subdivide the data according to their spatial correlation. A conceptual hydrogeochemical model was developed and subsequently validated by applying combinatorial inverse and reaction pathway-based geochemical models to determine plausible mineral assemblages that control the chemical composition of the groundwater. The interactions between water and rock determine the groundwater quality in the Pra Basin. The results underline that the groundwater is of good quality and can be used for drinking water and irrigation purposes. It was demonstrated that there is a large groundwater potential to meet the entire Pra Basin’s current and future water demands. The main recharge area was identified as the northern zone, while the southern zone is the discharge area. The predominant influence of weathering of silicate minerals plays a key role in the chemical evolution of the groundwater. The work presented here provides fundamental insights into the hydrochemistry of the Pra Basin and provides data important to water managers for informed decision-making in planning and allocating water resources for various purposes. A novel inverse modelling approach was used in this study to identify different mineral compositions that determine the chemical evolution of groundwater in the Pra Basin. This modelling technique has the potential to simulate the composition of groundwater at the basin scale with large hydrochemical heterogeneity, using average water composition to represent established spatial groupings of water chemistry.
Ausgehend von Überlegungen des anthropologisch orientierten Psychiaters Erwin Straus geht dieses Buch der Frage nach, welche Bedingungen vorliegen, wenn bestimmte Ereignisse von Personen als bedeutsam erlebt werden. Des Weiteren wird ausführlich erörtert, wie sich Personalität im Menschen ausbildet und inwieweit sie von der gelingenden Integration bedeutungsvoller Ersterlebnisse abhängt. Das dabei zugrundeliegende Person-Konzept stellt einen eigenständigen Syntheseversuch der vier Konzepte von Erwin Straus, Viktor Emil von Gebsattel, Helmuth Plessner und Max Scheler dar. Der Autor arbeitet in oberärztlicher Funktion am Klinikum Schloss Lütgenhof in Dassow, einer Akutklinik für Personale Medizin, integrierte Psychosomatik, Innere Medizin und Psychotherapie
Light is the essential energy source for plants to drive photosynthesis. In nature, light availability is highly variable and often fluctuates on very short time scales. As a result, plants developed mechanisms to cope with these fluctuations. Understanding how to improve light use efficiency in natural fluctuating light (FL) conditions is a major target for agronomy.
In the first project, we identified an Arabidopsis thaliana plant that showed reduced levels of rapidly inducible non-photochemical quenching (NPQ). This plant was devoid of any T-DNA insertion. Using a mapping-by-sequencing approach, we successfully located the causal genomic region near the end of chromosome 4. Through variant investigations in that region, we identified a deletion of about 20 kb encompassing 9 genes. By complementation analysis, we confirmed that one of the deleted genes, VTC2, is the causal gene responsible for the low NPQ. Loss of VTC2 decreased NPQ particularly in old leaves, with young leaves being only slightly affected. Additionally, ascorbate levels were almost abolished in old leaves, likely causing the NPQ decrease by reducing the activity of the xanthophyll cycle. Although ascorbate levels in younger leaves were reduced compared to wild-type plants, they remained at a comparably higher level. This difference may be due to the VTC2 paralog VTC5, which is expressed at a higher level in young leaves than in old ones.
Plants require the PROTON GRADIENT REGULATION 5 (PGR5) protein for survival in FL. pgr5 mutants die because they fail to increase the luminal proton concentration in response to high light (HL) phases. A rapid elevation in ∆pH is needed to slow down electron transport through the Cytochrome b6 f complex (photosynthetic control). In FL, such lack of control in the pgr5 mutants results in photosystem I (PSI) overreduction, reactive oxygen species (ROS) production, and cell death. Decreases in photosystem II (PSII) activity introduced by crossing pgr5 with PSII deficient mutants
rescued the lethality of pgr5 in FL. PGR5 was suggested to act as part of the ferredoxin-plastoquinone reductase (FQR), involved in cyclic electron transfer around PSI. However, the proposed molecular role of PGR5 remains highly debated. To learn more about PGR5 function, we performed a forward genetic screen in Arabidopsis thaliana to identify EMS-induced suppressor mutants surviving longer when grown in FL compared to pgr5 mutants (referred to as ”suppressor of pgr5 lethality in fluctuating light”, splf ). 11 different candidate genes were identified in a total of 22 splf plants.
Mutants of seven of these genes in the pgr5 background showed low Fv/Fm values when grown in non-fluctuating low light (LL). Five of these 4genes were previously reported to have a role in PSII biogenesis or function. Two others, RPH1 and a DEAD/DEAH box helicase (AT3G02060), have not been linked to PSII function before. Three of splf candidate genes link to primary metabolism, fructose-2,6-bisphosphatase (F2KP ), udp-glucose pyrophosphorylase 1 (UGP1 ) and ferredoxin-dependent glutamate synthase (Fd-GOGAT ). They are characterized by the fact that they survive longer in FL than pgr5 mutants but do not procede beyond the early vegetative
phase and then die.
Plant metabolism serves as the primary mechanism for converting assimilated carbon into essential compounds crucial for plant growth and ultimately, crop yield. This renders it a focal point of research with significant implications. Despite notable strides in comprehending the genetic principles underpinning metabolism and yield, there remains a dearth of knowledge regarding the genetic factors responsible for trait variation under varying environmental conditions. Given the burgeoning global population and the advancing challenges posed by climate change, unraveling the intricacies of metabolic and yield responses to water scarcity became increasingly important in safeguarding food security.
Our research group has recently started to work on the genetic resources of legume species. To this end, the study presented here investigates the metabolic diversity across five different legume species at a tissue level, identifying species-specific biosynthesis of alkaloids as well as iso-/flavonoids with diverse functional groups, namely prenylation, phenylacylation as well as methoxylation, to create a resource for follow up studies investigation the metabolic diversity in natural diverse populations of legume species.
Following this, the second study investigates the genetic architecture of drought-induced changes in a global common bean population. Here, a plethora of quantitative trait loci (QTL) associated with various traits are identified by performing genome-wide association studies (GWAS), including for lipid signaling. On this site, overexpression of candidates highlighted the induction of several oxylipins reported to be pivotal in coping with harsh environmental conditions such as water scarcity.
Diverging from the common bean and GWAS, the following study focuses on identifying drought-related QTL in tomato using a bi-parental breeding population. This descriptive study highlights novel multi-omic QTL, including metabolism, photosynthesis as well as fruit setting, some of which are uniquely assigned under drought. Compared to conventional approaches using the bi-parental IL population, the study presented improves the resolution by assessing further backcrossed ILs, named sub-ILs.
In the final study, a photosynthetic gene, namely a PetM subunit of the cytochrome b6f complex encoding gene, involved in electron flow is characterized in an horticultural important crop. While several advances have been made in model organisms, this study highlights the transition of this fundamental knowledge to horticultural important crops, such as tomato, and investigates its function under differing light conditions. Overall, the presented thesis combines different strategies in unveiling the genetic components in multi-omic traits under drought using conventional breeding populations as well as a diverse global population. To this end, it allows a comparison of either approach and highlights their strengths and weaknesses.
Juana Borrero
(2023)
Juana Borrero y Pierra (1877–1896) war eine der wichtigsten Vertreterinnen des inselkubanischen Modernismo. Gleichwohl ist das Schaffen der schon zu Lebzeiten zum Wunderkind stilisierten Autorin, Dichterin und Malerin wissenschaftlich kaum eingehender untersucht worden. Die Werkstudie schlägt einen umfassenden, konsequent ästhetischen Blick auf das aus Gedichten, poetischer Prosa, literarischen Liebesbriefen, Zeichnungen und Malereien bestehende Gesamtwerk Borreros vor, das im Kern ein Streben nach Ganzheit von Kunst und Leben offenlegt. Dabei werden die Text- und Bildstrategien der Künstlerin mit den ästhetischen, soziohistorischen und biografischen Kontexten verzahnt, wodurch Juana Borreros Stimme als exemplarische Stimme der kubanischen Spätmoderne sowie einer bewegten kubanischen Literatur les- und sichtbar wird.
Nowadays, innovative and entrepreneurial activities and their actors are embedded in interdependent systems to drive joint value creation. Innovation ecosystems and entrepreneurial ecosystems have become established system-level concepts in management research to explain how value transpires between different actors and institutions in distinct contexts. Despite the popularity of the concepts, researchers have critiqued their theoretical depth, conceptual distinctiveness, as well as operationalization and measurement (Autio & Thomas, 2022; Klimas & Czakon, 2022). Furthermore, in light of current-day challenges, research has yet to address how context impacts innovation and entrepreneurial ecosystems and their actors and elements (Wurth et al., 2022).
The aim of this cumulative thesis is to provide a deeper understanding of the conceptualization, operationalization, and measurement of innovation and entrepreneurial ecosystems and investigate how contextual factors can influence the overall ecosystem and its key actors. To this end, bibliometric and empirical-qualitative methods, as well as narrative and systematic literature reviews, are employed. After introducing the research scope and key concepts in Chapter 1, a systematic literature review to operationalize and measure the concept of innovation ecosystems is conducted, and an integrative framework of its composition is introduced in Chapter 2. In Chapter 3, the innovation journal network is outlined by means of science mapping to determine current and emerging research areas characterizing innovation studies. In Chapters 4 and 5, the interplay between the temporal context of the Covid-19 pandemic and the spatial context of entrepreneurial ecosystems is assessed by focusing on the role of organizational resilience and affordances. The findings shed new light on the dynamics and boundaries of entrepreneurial ecosystems as they move between the spatial and digital realm. Building on this, an integrative framework of digital entrepreneurial ecosystems is presented in Chapter 6. The concluding Chapter 7 summarizes my thesis’s conceptual, theoretical, and empirical insights, highlighting implications, limitations, and promising future research avenues.
The findings of this cumulative thesis contribute to the theoretical and conceptual advancement of ecosystems in innovation and entrepreneurship by providing insights into the measurement and operationalization of its elements. Furthermore, the results show that contextual factors, such as crisis events or institutional circumstances, influence innovation and entrepreneurial ecosystems and their actors, calling for a more nuanced consideration of ecosystem configurations and dynamics. By drawing from the theory of affordances, the elements that actually afford value to the actors and how they shift between the physical and digital realm are portrayed. Based on these findings, this thesis introduces novel frameworks and conceptual advancements of the configurations and boundaries of innovation and (digital) entrepreneurial ecosystems, laying the foundation for a renewed understanding of how to design, orchestrate, and evaluate ecosystems today and in the future.
Unterliegt illegales Vermögen dem strafrechtlichen Vermögensschutz? Die Beantwortung dieser Frage ist seit Jahren in der Strafrechtswissenschaft umstritten und führt zu einer Vielzahl an Meinungen. Stärken und Schwächen der in der Literatur vertretenen Ansichten sind bis heute Gegenstand einer andauernden wissenschaftlichen Diskussion. Dennoch fehlt es an einer umfassenden Untersuchung der höchstrichterlichen Rechtsprechungspraxis – diese Lücke soll die vorliegende Arbeit schließen.
Um die Fülle der dafür untersuchten Entscheidungen systematisch darzustellen, wurden diese in verschiedene Fallgruppen eingeordnet. Die Bildung der Fallgruppen basiert nicht wie üblich auf einem phänomenologischen Ansatz, sondern auf einem konsequenten systematisch-dogmatischen Ansatz. Dies ermöglicht die Betrachtung bekannter Sachverhaltskonstellationen im neuen Licht.
We live in an era driven by fossil fuels. The prevailing climate change suggests that we have to significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The only way forward is to use renewable energy sources. Among those, solar energy is a clean, affordable, and sustainable source of energy. It has the potential to satisfy the world’s energy demand in the future. However, there is a need to develop new materials that can make solar energy usable. Photovoltaics (PV) are devices that convert photon energy into electrical energy. The most commonly used solar cells are based on crystalline silicon. However, the fabrication process for silicon solar cells is technologically difficult and costly. Solar cells based on lead halide perovskites (PSCs) have emerged as a new candidate for PV applications since 2009. To date, PSCs have achieved 26% power-conversion-efficiency (PCE) for its single junction, and 33.7% PCE for tandem junction devices. However, there is still room for improvement in overall performance. The main challenge for the commercialization of this technology is the stability of the solar cells under operational conditions. Inorganic perovskite CsPbI3 has attracted researchers’ interest due to its stability at elevated temperatures, however, inorganic perovskites also have associated challenges, e.g. phase stability, larger voltage loss compared to their organic-inorganic hybrid counterparts, and interface energy misalignment. The most efficient inorganic perovskite solar cell is stable for up to a few hundred hours while the most stable device in the field of inorganic PSCs reported so far is at 17% PCE. This suggests the need for improvement of the interfaces for enhanced open circuit voltage (VOC), and optimization of the energy alignment at the interfaces. This dissertation presents the study on interfaces between the perovskite layer and hole transport layer (HTL) for stable CsPbI3 solar cells.
The first part of the thesis presents an investigation of the CsPbI3 film annealing environment and its subsequent effects on the perovskite/HTL interface dynamics. Thin films annealed in dry air were compared with thin films annealed in ambient air. Synchrotron-based hard X-ray spectroscopy (HAXPES) measurements reveal that annealing in ambient air does not have an adverse effect; instead, those samples undergo surface band bending. This surface band modification induces changes in interface charge dynamics and, consequently, an improvement in charge extraction at the interfaces. Further, transient surface photovoltage (tr-SPV) simulations show that air-annealed samples exhibit fewer trap states compared to samples annealed in dry air. Finally, by annealing the CsPbI3 films in ambient air, a PCE of 19.8% and Voc of 1.23 V were achieved for an n-i-p structured device.
Interface engineering has emerged as a strategy to extract the charge and optimize the energy alignment in perovskite solar cells (PSCs). An interface with fewer trap states and energy band levels closer to the selective contact helps to attain improved efficiencies in PSCs. The second part of the thesis presents a design for the CsPbI3/HTM interface. In this work, an interface between CsPbI3 perovskite and its hole selective contact N2,N2,N2′,N2′,N7,N7,N7′,N7′-octakis(4-methoxyphenyl)-9,9′-spirobi[9H-fluorene]-2,2′,7,7′-tetramine(Spiro-OMeTAD), realized by trioctylphosphine oxide (TOPO), a dipole molecule is introduced. On top of a perovskite film well-passivated by n-octyl ammonium Iodide (OAI), it created an upward surface band-bending at the interface byTOPO that optimizes energy level alignment and enhances the extraction of holes from the perovskite layer to the hole transport material. Consequently, a Voc of 1.2 V and high-power conversion efficiency (PCE) of over 19% were achieved for inorganic CsPbI3 perovskite solar cells. In addition, the work also sheds light on the interfacial charge-selectivity and the long-term stability of CsPbI3 perovskite solar cells.
The third part of the thesis extends the previous studies to polymeric poly(3-hexylthiophene-2,5-diyl) (P3HT) as HTL. The CsPbI3/P3HT interface is critical due to high non-radiative recombination. This work presents a CsPbI3/P3HT interface modified with a long-chain alkyl halide molecule, n-hexyl trimethyl ammonium bromide (HTAB). This molecule largely passivates the CsPbI3 perovskite surface and improves the charge extraction across the interface. Consequently, a Voc of over 1.00 V and 14.2% PCE were achieved for CsPbI3 with P3HT as HTM.
Overall the results presented in this dissertation introduce and discuss methods to design and study the interfaces in CsPbI3-based solar cells. This study can pave the way for novel interface designs between CsPbI3 and HTM for charge extraction, efficiency and stability.
Within the context of United Nations (UN) environmental institutions, it has become apparent that intergovernmental responses alone have been insufficient for dealing with pressing transboundary environmental problems. Diverging economic and political interests, as well as broader changes in power dynamics and norms within global (environmental) governance, have resulted in negotiation and implementation efforts by UN member states becoming stuck in institutional gridlock and inertia. These developments have sparked a renewed debate among scholars and practitioners about an imminent crisis of multilateralism, accompanied by calls for reforming UN environmental institutions. However, with the rise of transnational actors and institutions, states are not the only relevant actors in global environmental governance. In fact, the fragmented architectures of different policy domains are populated by a hybrid mix of state and non-state actors, as well as intergovernmental and transnational institutions. Therefore, coping with the complex challenges posed by severe and ecologically interdependent transboundary environmental problems requires global cooperation and careful management from actors beyond national governments.
This thesis investigates the interactions of three intergovernmental UN treaty secretariats in global environmental governance. These are the secretariats of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, the Convention on Biological Diversity, and the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification. While previous research has acknowledged the increasing autonomy and influence of treaty secretariats in global policy-making, little attention has been paid to their strategic interactions with non-state actors, such as non-governmental organizations, civil society actors, businesses, and transnational institutions and networks, or their coordination with other UN agencies. Through qualitative case-study research, this thesis explores the means and mechanisms of these interactions and investigates their consequences for enhancing the effectiveness and coherence of institutional responses to underlying and interdependent environmental issues.
Following a new institutionalist ontology, the conceptual and theoretical framework of this study draws on global governance research, regime theory, and scholarship on international bureaucracies. From an actor-centered perspective on institutional interplay, the thesis employs concepts such as orchestration and interplay management to assess the interactions of and among treaty secretariats. The research methodology involves structured, focused comparison, and process-tracing techniques to analyze empirical data from diverse sources, including official documents, various secondary materials, semi-structured interviews with secretariat staff and policymakers, and observations at intergovernmental conferences.
The main findings of this research demonstrate that secretariats employ tailored orchestration styles to manage or bypass national governments, thereby raising global ambition levels for addressing transboundary environmental problems. Additionally, they engage in joint interplay management to facilitate information sharing, strategize activities, and mobilize relevant actors, thereby improving coherence across UN environmental institutions. Treaty secretariats play a substantial role in influencing discourses and knowledge exchange with a wide range of actors. However, they face barriers, such as limited resources, mandates, varying leadership priorities, and degrees of politicization within institutional processes, which may hinder their impact. Nevertheless, the secretariats, together with non-state actors, have made progress in advancing norm-building processes, integrated policy-making, capacity building, and implementation efforts within and across framework conventions. Moreover, they utilize innovative means of coordination with actors beyond national governments, such as data-driven governance, to provide policy-relevant information for achieving overarching governance targets.
Importantly, this research highlights the growing interactions between treaty secretariats and non-state actors, which not only shape policy outcomes but also have broader implications for the polity and politics of international institutions. The findings offer opportunities for rethinking collective agency and actor dynamics within UN entities, addressing gaps in institutionalist theory concerning the interaction of actors in inter-institutional spaces. Furthermore, the study addresses emerging challenges and trends in global environmental governance that are pertinent to future policy-making. These include reflections for the debate on reforming international institutions, the role of emerging powers in a changing international world order, and the convergence of public and private authority through new alliance-building and a division of labor between international bureaucracies and non-state actors in global environmental governance.
Animal movement is a crucial aspect of life, influencing ecological and evolutionary processes. It plays an important role in shaping biodiversity patterns, connecting habitats and ecosystems. Anthropogenic landscape changes, such as in agricultural environments, can impede the movement of animals by affecting their ability to locate resources during recurring movements within home ranges and, on a larger scale, disrupt migration or dispersal. Inevitably, these changes in movement behavior have far-reaching consequences on the mobile link functions provided by species inhabiting such extensively altered matrix areas. In this thesis, I investigate the movement characteristics and activity patterns of the European hare (Lepus europaeus), aiming to understand their significance as a pivotal species in fragmented agricultural landscapes. I reveal intriguing results that shed light on the importance of hares for seed dispersal, the influence of personality traits on behavior and space use, the sensitivity of hares to extreme weather conditions, and the impacts of GPS collaring on mammals' activity patterns and movement behavior.
In Chapter I, I conducted a controlled feeding experiment to investigate the potential impact of hares on seed dispersal. By additionally utilizing GPS data of hares in two contrasting landscapes, I demonstrated that hares play a vital role, acting as effective mobile linkers for many plant species in small and isolated habitat patches. The analysis of seed intake and germination success revealed that distinct seed traits, such as density, surface area, and shape, profoundly affect hares' ability to disperse seeds through endozoochory. These findings highlight the interplay between hares and plant communities and thus provide valuable insights into seed dispersal mechanisms in fragmented landscapes.
By employing standardized behavioral tests in Chapter II, I revealed consistent behavioral responses among captive hares while simultaneously examining the intricate connection between personality traits and spatial patterns within wild hare populations. This analysis provides insights into the ecological interactions and dynamics within hare populations in agricultural habitats. Examining the concept of animal personality, I established a link between personality traits and hare behavior. I showed that boldness, measured through standardized tests, influences individual exploration styles, with shy and bold hares exhibiting distinct space use patterns. In addition to providing valuable insights into the role of animal personality in heterogeneous environments, my research introduced a novel approach demonstrating the feasibility of remotely assessing personality types using animal-borne sensors without additional disturbance of the focal individual.
While climate conditions severely impact the activity and, consequently, the fitness of wildlife species across the globe, in Chapter III, I uncovered the sensitivity of hares to temperature, humidity, and wind speed during their peak reproduction period. I found a strong response in activity to high temperatures above 25°C, with a particularly pronounced effect during temperature extremes of over 35°C. The non-linear relationship between temperature and activity was characterized by contrasting responses observed for day and night. These findings emphasize the vulnerability of hares to climate change and the potential consequences for their fitness and population dynamics with the ongoing rise of temperature.
Since such insights can only be obtained through capturing and tagging free-ranging animals, I assessed potential impacts and the recovery process post-collar attachment in Chapter IV. For this purpose, I examined the daily distances moved and the temporal-associated activity of 1451 terrestrial mammals out of 42 species during their initial tracking period. The disturbance intensity and the speed of recovery varied across species, with herbivores, females, and individuals captured and collared in relatively secluded study areas experiencing more pronounced disturbances due to limited anthropogenic influences.
Mobile linkers are essential for maintaining biodiversity as they influence the dynamics and resilience of ecosystems. Furthermore, their ability to move through fragmented landscapes makes them a key component for restoring disturbed sites. Individual movement decisions determine the scale of mobile links, and understanding variations in space use among individuals is crucial for interpreting their functions. Climate change poses further challenges, with wildlife species expected to adjust their behavior, especially in response to high-temperature extremes, and comprehending the anthropogenic influence on animal movements will remain paramount to effective land use planning and the development of successful conservation strategies.
This thesis provides a comprehensive ecological understanding of hares in agricultural landscapes. My research findings underscore the importance of hares as mobile linkers, the influence of personality traits on behavior and spatial patterns, the vulnerability of hares to extreme weather conditions, and the immediate consequences of collar attachment on mammalian movements. Thus, I contribute valuable insights to wildlife conservation and management efforts, aiding in developing strategies to mitigate the impact of environmental changes on hare populations. Moreover, these findings enable the development of methodologies aimed at minimizing the impacts of collaring while also identifying potential biases in the data, thereby benefiting both animal welfare and the scientific integrity of localization studies.
Background: Physical fitness is a key aspect of children’s ability to perform activities of daily living, engage in leisure activities, and is associated with important health characteristics. As such, it shows multi-directional associations with weight status as well as executive functions, and varies according to a variety of moderating factors, such as the child’s gender, age, geographical location, and socioeconomic conditions and context. The assessment and monitoring of children’s physical fitness has gained attention in recent decades, as has the question of how to promote physical fitness through the implementation of a variety of programs and interventions. However, these programs and interventions rarely focus on children with deficits in their physical fitness. Due to their deficits, these children are at the highest risk of suffering health impairments compared to their more average fit peers. In efforts to promote physical fitness, schools could offer promising and viable approaches to interventions, as they provide access to large youth populations while providing useful infrastructure. Evidence suggests that school-based physical fitness interventions, particularly those that include supplementary physical education, are useful for promoting and improving physical fitness in children with normal fitness. However, there is little evidence on whether these interventions have similar or even greater effects on children with deficits in their physical fitness. Furthermore, the question arises whether these measures help to sustainably improve the development/trajectories of physical fitness in these children.
The present thesis aims to elucidate the following four objectives: (1) to evaluate the effects of a 14 week intervention with 2 x 45 minutes per week additional remedial physical education on physical fitness and executive function in children with deficits in their physical fitness; (2) to assess moderating effects of body height and body mass on physical fitness components in children with physical fitness deficits; (3) to assess moderating effects of age and skeletal growth on physical fitness in children with physical fitness deficits; and (4) to analyse moderating effects of different physical fitness components on executive function in children with physical fitness deficits.
Methods: Using physical fitness data from the EMOTIKON study, 76 third graders with physical fitness deficits were identified in 11 schools in Brandenburg state that met the requirements for implementing a remedial physical education intervention (i.e., employing specially trained physical education teachers). The fitness intervention was implemented in a cross-over design and schools were randomly assigned to either an intervention-control or control-intervention group. The remedial physical education intervention consisted of a 14 week, 2 x 45 minutes per week remedial physical education curriculum supplemented by a physical exercise homework program. Assessments were conducted at the beginning and end of each intervention and control period, and further assessments were conducted at the beginning and end of each school year until the end of sixth grade. Physical fitness as the primary outcome was assessed using fitness tests implemented in the EMOTIKON study (i.e., lower body muscular strength (standing long jump), speed (20 m sprint), cardiorespiratory fitness (6 min run), agility (star run), upper body muscular strength (ball push test), and balance (one leg balance)). Executive functions as a secondary outcome were assessed using attention and psychomotor processing speed (digit symbol substitution test), mental flexibility and fine motor skills (trail making test), and inhibitory control (Simon task). Anthropometric measures such as body height, body mass, maturity offset, and body composition parameters, as well as socioeconomic information were recorded as potential moderators.
Results: (1) The evaluation of possible effects of the remedial physical education intervention on physical fitness and executive functions of children with deficits in their physical fitness did not reveal any detectable intervention-related improvements in physical fitness or executive functions. The implemented analysis strategies also showed moderating effects of body mass index (BMI) on performance in 6 min run, star run, and standing long jump, with children with a lower BMI performing better, moderating effects of proximity to Berlin on performance in the 6 min run and standing long jump, better performances being found in children living closer to Berlin, and overall gendered differences in executive function test performance, with boys performing better compared to girls. (2) Analysing moderating effects of body height and body mass on physical fitness performance, better overall physical fitness performance was found for taller children. For body mass, a negative effect was found on performance in the 6 min run (linear), standing long jump (linear), and 20 m sprint (quadratic), with better performance associated with lighter children, and a positive effect of body mass on performance in the ball push test, with heavier children performing better. In addition, the analysis revealed significant interactions between body height and body mass on performance in 6 min run and 20 m sprint, with higher body mass being associated with performance improvements in larger children, while higher body mass was associated with performance declines in smaller children. In addition, the analysis revealed overall age-related improvements in physical fitness and was able to show that children with better overall physical fitness also elicit greater age-related improvements. (3) In the analysis of moderating effects of age and maturity offset on physical fitness performances, two unrotated principal components of z-transformed age and maturity offset values were calculated (i.e., relative growth = (age + maturity offset)/2; growth delay = (age - maturity offset)) to avoid colinearity. Analysing these constructs revealed positive effects of relative growth on performances in star run, 20 m sprint, and standing long jump, with children of higher relative growth performing better. For growth delay, positive effects were found on performances in 6 min run and 20 m sprint, with children having larger growth delays showing better performances. Further, the model revealed gendered differences in 6 min run and 20 m sprint performances with girls performing better than boys. (4) Analysing the effects of physical fitness tests on executive function revealed a positive effect of star run and one leg balance performance and a negative effect of 6 min run performance on reaction speed in the Simon task. However, these effects were not detectable when individual differences were accounted for. Then these effects showed overall positive effects, with better performances being associated with faster reaction speeds. In addition, the analysis revealed a positive correlation between overall reaction speed and effects of the 6 min run, suggesting that children with greater effects of 6 min run had faster overall reaction speeds. Negative correlations were found between star run effects and age effects on Simon task reaction speed, meaning that children with larger star run effects had smaller age effects, and between 6 min run effects and star run effects on Simon task reaction speed, meaning that children with larger 6 min run effects tended to have smaller star run effects on Simon task reaction speed and vice versa.
Conclusions: (1) The lack of detectable intervention-related effects could have been caused by an insufficient intervention period, by the implementation of comprehensive and thus non- specific exercises, or by both. Accordingly, longer intervention periods and/or more specific exercises may have been more beneficial and could have led to detectable improvements in physical fitness and/or executive function. However, it remains unclear whether these interventions can benefit children with deficits in physical fitness, as it is possible that their deficits are not caused by a mere lack of exercise, but rather depend on the socioeconomic conditions of the children and their families and areas. Therefore, further research is needed to assess the moderation of physical fitness in children with physical fitness deficits and, in particular, the links between children’s environment and their physical fitness trajectories. (2) Findings from this work suggest that using BMI as a composite of body height and body mass may not be able to capture the variation associated with these parameters and their interactions. In particular, because of their multidirectional associations, further research would help elucidate how BMI and its subcomponents influence physical fitness and how they vary between children with and without physical fitness deficits. (3) The assessment of growth- related changes indicated negative effects associated with the growth spurt approaching age of peak height velocity, and furthermore showed significant differences in these effects between children. Thus, these effects and possible interindividual differences should be considered in the assessment of the development of physical fitness in children. (4) Furthermore, this work has shown that the associations between physical fitness and executive functions vary between children and may be moderated by children’s socioeconomic conditions and the structure of their daily activities. Further research is needed to explore these associations using approaches that account for individual variance.
In this work, the role of the TusA protein was investigated for the cell functionality and FtsZ ring assembly in Escherichia coli. TusA is the tRNA-2-thiouridine synthase that acts as a sulfur transferase in tRNA thiolation for the formation of 2-thiouridine at the position 34 (wobble base) of tRNALys, tRNAGlu and tRNAGln. It binds the persulfide form of sulfur and transfers it to further proteins during mnm5s2U tRNA modification at wobble position and for Moco biosynthesis. With this thiomodification of tRNA, the ribosome binding is more efficient and frameshifting is averted during the protein translation. Previous studies have revealed an essential role of TusA in bacterial cell physiology since deletion of the tusA gene resulted in retarded growth and filamentous cells during the exponential growth phase in a rich medium which suddenly disappeared during the stationary phase. This indicates a problem in the cell division process. Therefore the focus of this work was to investigate the role of TusA for cell functionality and FtsZ ring formation and thus the cell separation.
The reason behind the filamentous growth of the tusA mutant strain was investigated by growth and morphological analyses. ΔtusA cells showed a retarded growth during the exponential phase compared to the WT strain. Also, morphological analysis of ΔtusA cells confirmed the filamentous cell shape. The growth and cell division defects in ΔtusA indicated a defect in FtsZ protein as a key player of cell division. The microscopic investigation revealed that filamentous ΔtusA cells possessed multiple DNA parts arranged next to each other. This suggested that although the DNA replication occurred correctly, there was a defect in the step where FtsZ should act; probably FtsZ is unable to assemble to the ring structure or the assembled ring is not able to constrict. All tested mutant strains (ΔtusD, ΔtusE and ΔmnmA) involved in the mnm5s2U34 tRNA modification pathway shared the similar retarded growth and filamentous cell shape like ΔtusA strain. Thus, the cell division defect arises from a defect in mnm5s2U34 tRNA thiolation.
Since the FtsZ ring formation was supposed to be defective in filaments, a possible intracellular interaction of TusA and FtsZ was examined by fluorescent (EGFP and mCherry) fusion proteins expression and FRET. FtsZ expressing tusA mutant (DE3) cells showed a red mCherry signal at the cell poles, indicating that FtsZ is still in the assembling phase. Interestingly, the cellular region of EGFP-TusA fusion protein expressed in ΔtusA (DE3) was conspicuous; the EGFP signal was spread throughout the whole cell and, in addition, a slight accumulation of the EGFP-TusA fluorescence was detectable at the cell poles, the same part of the cell as for mCherry-FtsZ. Thus, this strongly suggested an interaction of TusA and FtsZ.
Furthermore, the cellular FtsZ and Fis concentrations, and their change during different growth phases were determined via immunoblotting. All tested deletion strains of mnm5s2U34 tRNA modification show high cellular FtsZ and Fis levels in the exponential phase, shifting to the later growth phases. This shift reflects the retarded growth, whereby the deletion strains reach later the exponential phase. Conclusively, the growth and cell division defect, and thus the formation of filaments, is most likely caused by changes in the cellular FtsZ and Fis concentrations.
Finally, the translation efficiencies of certain proteins (RpoS, Fur, Fis and mFis) in tusA mutant and in additional gene deletion strains were studied whether they were affected by using unmodified U34 tRNAs of Lys, Glu and Gln. The translation efficiency is decreased in mnm5s2U34 tRNA modification-impaired strains in addition to their existing growth and cell division defect due to the elimination of these three amino acids. Finally, these results confirm and reinforce the importance of Lys, Glu and Gln and the mnm5s2U34 tRNA thiolation for efficient protein translation. Thus, these findings verify that the translation of fur, fis and rpoS is regulated by mnm5s2U34 tRNA modifications, which is growth phase-dependent.
In total, this work showed the importance of the role of TusA for bacterial cell functionality and physiology. The deletion of the tusA gene disrupted a complex regulatory network within the cell, that most influenced by the decreased translation of Fis and RpoS, caused by the absence of mnm5s2U34 tRNA modifications. The disruption of RpoS and Fis cellular network influences in turn the cellular FtsZ level in the early exponential phase. Finally, the reduced FtsZ concentration leads to elongated, filamentous E. coli cells, which are unable to divide.
Seasonal forecasts are of great interest in many areas. Knowing the amount of precipitation for the upcoming season in regions of water scarcity would facilitate a better water management. If farmers knew the weather conditions of the upcoming summer at sowing time, they could select those cereal species that are best adapted to these conditions. This would allow farmers to improve the harvest and potentially even reduce the amount of pesticides used. However, the undoubted advantages of seasonal forecasts are often opposed by their high degree of uncertainty. The great challenge of generating seasonal forecasts with lead times of several months mainly originates from the chaotic nature of the earth system. In a chaotic system, even tiny differences in the initial conditions can lead to strong deviations in the system’s state in the long run.
In this dissertation we propose an emergent machine learning approach for seasonal forecasting, called the AnlgModel. The AnlgModel combines the analogue method with myopic feature selection and bootstrapping. To benchmark the abilities of the AnlgModel we apply it to seasonal cyclone activity forecasts in the North Atlantic and Northwest Pacific. The AnlgModel demonstrates competitive hindcast skills with two operational forecasts and even outperforms these for long lead times.
In the second chapter we comprehend the forecasting strategy of the Anlg-Model. We thereby analyse the analogue selection process for the 2017 North Atlantic and the 2018 Northwest Pacific seasonal cyclone activity. The analysis shows that those climate indices which are known to influence the seasonal cyclone activity, such as the Niño 3.4 SST, are correctly represented among the selected analogues. Furthermore the selected analogues reflect large-scale climate patterns that were identified by expert reports as being determinative for these particular seasons.
In the third chapter we analyse the features that are used by the AnlgModel for its predictions. We therefore inspect the feature relevance (FR). The FR patterns learned by the AnlgModel show a high congruence with the predictor regions used by the operational forecasts. However, the AnlgModel also discovered new features, such as the SST anomaly in the Gulf of Guinea during November. This SST pattern exhibits a remarkably high predictive potential for the upcoming Atlantic hurricane activity.
In the final chapter we investigate potential mechanisms, that link two of these regions with high feature relevance to the Atlantic hurricane activity. We mainly focus on ocean surface transport. The ocean surface flow paths are calculated using Lagrangian particle analysis. We demonstrate that the FR patterns in the region of the Canary islands do not correspond with ocean surface transport. It is instead likely that these FR patterns fingerprint a wind transport of latent heat. The second region to be studied is situated in the Gulf of Guinea. Our analysis shows that the FR patterns seen there do fingerprint ocean surface transport. However, our simulations also show that at least one other mechanism is involved in linking the Gulf of Guinea SST anomaly in November to the hurricane activity of the upcoming season.
In this work the AnlgModel does not only demonstrate its outstanding forecast skills but also shows its capabilities as research tool for detecting oceanic and atmospheric mechanisms.