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We present two new empirical models of radiation belt electron flux at geostationary orbit. GOES-15 measurements of 0.8 MeV electrons were used to train a Nonlinear Autoregressive with Exogenous input (NARX) neural network for both modeling GOES-15 flux values and an upper boundary condition scaling factor (BF). The GOES-15 flux model utilizes an input and feedback delay of 2 and 2 time steps (i.e., 5 min time steps) with the most efficient number of hidden layers set to 10. Magnetic local time, Dst, Kp, solar wind dynamic pressure, AE, and solar wind velocity were found to perform as predicative indicators of GOES-15 flux and therefore were used as the exogenous inputs. The NARX-derived upper boundary condition scaling factor was used in conjunction with the Versatile Electron Radiation Belt (VERB) code to produce reconstructions of the radiation belts during the period of July-November 1990, independent of in-situ observations. Here, Kp was chosen as the sole exogenous input to be more compatible with the VERB code. This Combined Release and Radiation Effects Satellite-era reconstruction showcases the potential to use these neural network-derived boundary conditions as a method of hindcasting the historical radiation belts. This study serves as a companion paper to another recently published study on reconstructing the radiation belts during Solar Cycles 17-24 (Saikin et al., 2021, ), for which the results featured in this paper were used.
In this study we analyze the storm-time evolution of equatorial electron pitch angle distributions (PADs) in the outer radiation belt region using observations from the Magnetic Electron Ion Spectrometer (MagEIS) instrument aboard the Van Allen Probes in 2012-2019. The PADs are approximated using a sum of the first, third and fifth sine harmonics. Different combinations of the respective coefficients refer to the main PAD shapes within the outer radiation belt, namely the pancake, flat-top, butterfly and cap PADs. We conduct a superposed epoch analysis of 129 geomagnetic storms and analyze the PAD evolution for day and night MLT sectors. PAD shapes exhibit a strong energy-dependent response. At energies of tens of keV, the PADs exhibit little variation throughout geomagnetic storms. Cap PADs are mainly observed at energies < 300 keV, and their extent in L shrinks with increasing energy. The cap distributions transform into the pancake PADs around the main phase of the storm on the nightside, and then come back to their original shapes during the recovery phase. At higher energies on the dayside, the PADs are mainly pancake during pre-storm conditions and become more anisotropic during the main phase. The quiet-time butterfly PADs can be observed on the nightside at L> 5.6. During the main phase, butterfly PADs have stronger 90 degrees-minima and can be observed at lower L-shells (down to L = 5), then transitioning into flat-top PADs at L similar to 4.5 - 5 and pancake PADs at L < 4.5. The resulting PAD coefficients for different energies, locations and storm epochs can be used to test the wave models and physics-based radiation belt codes in terms of pitch angle distributions.
In this study, we present an empirical model of the equatorial electron pitch angle distributions (PADs) in the outer radiation belt based on the full data set collected by the Magnetic Electron Ion Spectrometer (MagEIS) instrument onboard the Van Allen Probes in 2012-2019. The PADs are fitted with a combination of the first, third and fifth sine harmonics. The resulting equation resolves all PAD types found in the outer radiation belt (pancake, flat-top, butterfly and cap PADs) and can be analytically integrated to derive omnidirectional flux. We introduce a two-step modeling procedure that for the first time ensures a continuous dependence on L, magnetic local time and activity, parametrized by the solar wind dynamic pressure. We propose two methods to reconstruct equatorial electron flux using the model. The first approach requires two uni-directional flux observations and is applicable to low-PA data. The second method can be used to reconstruct the full equatorial PADs from a single uni- or omnidirectional measurement at off-equatorial latitudes. The model can be used for converting the long-term data sets of electron fluxes to phase space density in terms of adiabatic invariants, for physics-based modeling in the form of boundary conditions, and for data assimilation purposes.