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A vector error correction model for the relationship between public debt and inflation in Germany
(2014)
In the paper, the interaction between public debt and inflation including mutual impulse response will be analysed. The European sovereign debt crisis brought once again the focus on the consequences of public debt in combination with an expansive monetary policy for the development of consumer prices. Public deficits can lead to inflation if the money supply is expansive. The high level of national debt, not only in the Euro-crisis countries, and the strong increase in total assets of the European Central Bank, as a result of the unconventional monetary policy, caused fears on inflating national debt. The transmission from public debt to inflation through money supply and long-term interest rate will be shown in the paper. Based on these theoretical thoughts, the variables public debt, consumer price index, money supply m3 and long-term interest rate will be analysed within a vector error correction model estimated by Johansen approach. In the empirical part of the article, quarterly data for Germany from 1991 by 2010 are to be examined.
Ökonomen wie Wirtschaftspolitiker berufen sich auf die Neutralitätstheorie des Geldes, wenn sie eine Entpolitisierung der Geldpolitik fordern. Sowohl die Theorie der Geldneutralität als auch das Paradigma der Entpolitisierung der Geldpolitik sind jedoch problematisch. Die politökonomischen Entwicklungen nach der globalen Finanz- und Wirtschaftskrise 2007/2008 und die jüngsten Kontroversen über die Rolle und Bedeutung von Geld haben dies deutlich vor Augen geführt. Die vorliegende Arbeit diskutiert zunächst die konzeptionellen Grundlagen und theoretischen Modelle der Geldneutralität. Anschließend werden die zentralen theoretischen Annahmen und Aussagen der Neutralitätstheorie aus einer kritischen heterodoxen Perspektive hinterfragt. Es wird argumentiert, dass Geld eine nicht-neutrale Produktionskraft ist, die weder ökonomisch noch sozial neutral ist. Die Bedingungen, unter denen Geld verfügbar ist und zirkuliert, sind richtungsweisend für die ökonomische Entwicklung. Daher kann es auch kein neutrales Geld oder gar eine apolitische Geldpolitik geben.
Critics argue that there has been a trend among Microfinance Institutions (MFI) to focus on profitability in order to stay financially sustainable. This made some institutions neglect the social mission of microfinancing. In this paper I intend to examine if empirical evidence supports this so called mission drift hypothesis as well as other claims in this context. Using the global panel data set of the MIX (Microfinance Information Exchange), which gathers from 1995 to 2010 and contains up to 1400 institutions with a high variety of organizational forms, I was able to identify a world-wide mission drift effect in their social goal of reaching out the poorest part of the population. Furthermore, I find that, on average, the outreach of an MFI has a significant negative influence on its short and long term financial performance. Despite that, I eventually proved that the probability that an MFI worsens its social performance substantially increases if its profitability has decreased in the previous years.