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Migration and development in Senegal : a system dynamics analysis of the feedback relationships
(2011)
This thesis investigates the reciprocal relationship between migration and development in Senegal. Therewith, it contributes to the debate as to whether migration in developing countries enhances or rather impedes the development process. Even though extensive and controversial discussions can be found in the scientific literature regarding the impact of migration on development, research has scarcely examined the feedback relationships between migration and development. Science however agrees with both the fact that migration affects development as well as that the level of development in a country determines migration behaviour. Thus, both variables are neither dependent nor independent, but endogenous variables influencing each other and producing behavioural pattern that cannot be investigated using a static and unidirectional approach. On account of this, the thesis studies the feedback mechanisms existing between migration and development and the behavioural pattern generated by the high interdependence in order to be able to draw conclusions concerning the impact of changes in migration behaviour on the development process. To explore these research questions, the study applies the computer simulation method ‘System Dynamics’ and amplifies the simulation model for national development planning called ‘Threshold 21’ (T21), representing development processes endogenously and integrating economic, social and environmental aspects, using a structure that portrays the reasons and consequences of migration. The model has been customised to Senegal, being an appropriate representative of the theoretical interesting universe of cases. The comparison of the model generated scenarios - in which the intensity of emigration, the loss and gain of education, the remittances or the level of dependence changes - facilitates the analysis. The present study produces two important results. The first outcome is the development of an integrative framework representing migration and development in an endogenous way and incorporating several aspects of different theories. This model can be used as a starting point for further discussions and improvements and it is a fairly relevant and useful result against the background that migration is not integrated into most of the development planning tools despite its significant impact. The second outcome is the gained insights concerning the feedback relations between migration and development and the impact of changes in migration on development. To give two examples: It could be found that migration impacts development positively, indicated by HDI, but that the dominant behaviour of migration and development is a counteracting behaviour. That means that an increase in emigration leads to an improvement in development, while this in turn causes a decline in emigration, counterbalancing the initial increase. Another insight concerns the discovery that migration causes a decline in education in the short term, but leads to an increase in the long term, after approximately 25 years - a typical worse-before-better behaviour. From these and further observations, important policy implications can be derived for the sending and receiving countries. Hence, by overcoming the unidirectional perspective, this study contributes to an improved understanding of the highly complex relationship between migration and development and their feedback relations.
The heterogeneity in species assemblages of epigeal spiders was studied in a natural forest and in a managed forest. Additionally the effects of small-scale microhabitat heterogeneity of managed and unmanaged forests were determined by analysing the spider assemblages of three different microhabitat structures (i. vegetation, ii. dead wood. iii. litter cover). The spider were collected in a block design by pitfall traps (n=72) in a 4-week interval. To reveal key environmental factors affecting the spider distribution abiotic and biotic habitat parameters (e.g. vegetation parameters, climate parameters, soil moisture) were assessed around each pitfall trap. A TWINSPAN analyses separated pitfall traps from the natural forest from traps of the managed forest. A subsequent discriminant analyses revealed that the temperature, the visible sky, the plant diversity and the mean diameter at breast height as key discriminant factors between the microhabitat groupings designated by the TWINSPAN analyses. Finally a Redundant analysis (RDA) was done revealing similar environmental factors responsible for the spider species distribution, as a good separation of the different forest types as well as the separation of the microhabitat groupings from the TWINSPAN. Overall the study revealed that the spider communities differed between the forest types as well as between the microhabitat structures and thus species distribution changed within a forest stand on a fine spatial scale. It was documented that the structure of managed forests affects the composition of spider assemblages compared to natural forests significantly and even small scale-heterogeneity seems to influence the spider species composition.
This thesis covers the topic ”Thinning and Turbulence in Aqueous Films”. Experimental studies in two-dimensional systems gained an increasing amount of attention during the last decade. Thin liquid films serve as paradigms of atmospheric convection, thermal convection in the Earth’s mantle or turbulence in magnetohydrodynamics. Recent research on colloids, interfaces and nanofluids lead to advances in the developtment of micro-mixers (lab-on-a-chip devices). In this project a detailed description of a thin film experiment with focus on the particular surface forces is presented. The impact of turbulence on the thinning of liquid films which are oriented parallel to the gravitational force is studied. An experimental setup was developed which permits the capturing of thin film interference patterns under controlled surface and atmospheric conditions. The measurement setup also serves as a prototype of a mixer on the basis of thermally induced turbulence in liquid thin films with thicknesses in the nanometer range. The convection is realized by placing a cooled copper rod in the center of the film. The temperature gradient between the rod and the atmosphere results in a density gradient in the liquid film, so that different buoyancies generate turbulence. In the work at hand the thermally driven convection is characterized by a newly developed algorithm, named Cluster Imaging Velocimetry (CIV). This routine determines the flow relevant vector fields (velocity and deformation). On the basis of these insights the flow in the experiment was investigated with respect to its mixing properties. The mixing characteristics were compared to theoretical models and mixing efficiency of the flow scheme calculated. The gravitationally driven thinning of the liquid film was analyzed under the influence of turbulence. Strong shear forces lead to the generation of ultra-thin domains which consist of Newton black film. Due to the exponential expansion of the thin areas and the efficient mixing, this two-phase flow rapidly turns into the convection of only ultra-thin film. This turbulence driven transition was observed and quantified for the first time. The existence of stable convection in liquid nanofilms was proven for the first time in the context of this work.