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Conservation actions need to account for and be adapted to address changes that will occur under global climate change. The identification of stresses on biological diversity (as defined in the Convention on Biological Diversity) is key in the process of adaptive conservation management. We considered any impact of climate change on biological diversity a stress because such an effect represents a change (negative or positive) in key ecological attributes of an ecosystem or parts of it. We applied a systemic approach and a hierarchical framework in a comprehensive classification of stresses to biological diversity that are caused directly by global climate change. Through analyses of 20 conservation sites in 7 countries and a review of the literature, we identified climate-change-induced stresses. We grouped the identified stresses according to 3 levels of biological diversity: stresses that affect individuals and populations, stresses that affect biological communities, and stresses that affect ecosystem structure and function. For each stress category, we differentiated 3 hierarchical levels of stress: stress class (thematic grouping with the coarsest resolution, 8); general stresses (thematic groups of specific stresses, 21); and specific stresses (most detailed definition of stresses, 90). We also compiled an overview of effects of climate change on ecosystem services using the categories of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment and 2 additional categories. Our classification may be used to identify key climate-change-related stresses to biological diversity and may assist in the development of appropriate conservation strategies. The classification is in list format, but it accounts for relations among climate-change-induced stresses.
The overall objective of the study is an elaboration of quantitative methods for national conservation planning, coincident with the international approach ('hotspots' approach). This objective requires a solution of following problems: 1) How to estimate large scale vegetation diversity from abiotic factors only? 2) How to adopt 'global hotspots' approach for bordering of national biodiversity hotspots? 3) How to set conservation targets, accounting for difference in environmental conditions and human threats between national biodiversity hotspots? 4) How to design large scale national conservation plan reflecting hierarchical nature of biodiversity? The case study for national conservation planning is Russia. Conclusions: · Large scale vegetation diversity can be predicted to a major extent by climatically determined latent heat for evaporation and geometrical structure of landscape, described as an altitudinal difference. The climate based model reproduces observed species number of vascular plant for different areas of the world with an average error 15% · National biodiversity hotspots can be mapped from biotic or abiotic data using corrected for a country the quantitative criteria for plant endemism and land use from the 'global hotspots' approach · Quantitative conservation targets, accounting for difference in environmental conditions and human threats between national biodiversity hotspots can be set using national data for Red Data book species · Large scale national conservation plan reflecting hierarchical nature of biodiversity can be designed by combination of abiotic method at national scale (identification of large scale hotspots) and biotic method at regional scale (analysis of species data from Red Data book)