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Gravitational-wave (GW) astrophysics is a field in full blossom. Since the landmark detection of GWs from a binary black hole on September 14th 2015, fifty-two compact-object binaries have been reported by the LIGO-Virgo collaboration. Such events carry astrophysical and cosmological information ranging from an understanding of how black holes and neutron stars are formed, what neutron stars are composed of, how the Universe expands, and allow testing general relativity in the highly-dynamical strong-field regime. It is the goal of GW astrophysics to extract such information as accurately as possible. Yet, this is only possible if the tools and technology used to detect and analyze GWs are advanced enough. A key aspect of GW searches are waveform models, which encapsulate our best predictions for the gravitational radiation under a certain set of parameters, and that need to be cross-correlated with data to extract GW signals. Waveforms must be very accurate to avoid missing important physics in the data, which might be the key to answer the fundamental questions of GW astrophysics. The continuous improvements of the current LIGO-Virgo detectors, the development of next-generation ground-based detectors such as the Einstein Telescope or the Cosmic Explorer, as well as the development of the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA), demand accurate waveform models. While available models are enough to capture the low spins, comparable-mass binaries routinely detected in LIGO-Virgo searches, those for sources from both current and next-generation ground-based and spaceborne detectors must be accurate enough to detect binaries with large spins and asymmetry in the masses. Moreover, the thousands of sources that we expect to detect with future detectors demand accurate waveforms to mitigate biases in the estimation of signals’ parameters due to the presence of a foreground of many sources that overlap in the frequency band. This is recognized as one of the biggest challenges for the analysis of future-detectors’ data, since biases might hinder the extraction of important astrophysical and cosmological information from future detectors’ data. In the first part of this thesis, we discuss how to improve waveform models for binaries with high spins and asymmetry in the masses. In the second, we present the first generic metrics that have been proposed to predict biases in the presence of a foreground of many overlapping signals in GW data.
For the first task, we will focus on several classes of analytical techniques. Current models for LIGO and Virgo studies are based on the post-Newtonian (PN, weak-field, small velocities) approximation that is most natural for the bound orbits that are routinely detected in GW searches. However, two other approximations have risen in prominence, the post-Minkowskian (PM, weak- field only) approximation natural for unbound (scattering) orbits and the small-mass-ratio (SMR) approximation typical of binaries in which the mass of one body is much bigger than the other. These are most appropriate to binaries with high asymmetry in the masses that challenge current waveform models. Moreover, they allow one to “cover” regions of the parameter space of coalescing binaries, thereby improving the interpolation (and faithfulness) of waveform models. The analytical approximations to the relativistic two-body problem can synergically be included within the effective-one-body (EOB) formalism, in which the two-body information from each approximation can be recast into an effective problem of a mass orbiting a deformed Schwarzschild (or Kerr) black hole. The hope is that the resultant models can cover both the low-spin comparable-mass binaries that are routinely detected, and the ones that challenge current models. The first part of this thesis is dedicated to a study about how to best incorporate information from the PN, PM, SMR and EOB approaches in a synergistic way. We also discuss how accurate the resulting waveforms are, as compared against numerical-relativity (NR) simulations. We begin by comparing PM models, whether alone or recast in the EOB framework, against PN models and NR simulations. We will show that PM information has the potential to improve currently-employed models for LIGO and Virgo, especially if recast within the EOB formalism. This is very important, as the PM approximation comes with a host of new computational techniques from particle physics to exploit. Then, we show how a combination of PM and SMR approximations can be employed to access previously-unknown PN orders, deriving the third subleading PN dynamics for spin-orbit and (aligned) spin1-spin2 couplings. Such new results can then be included in the EOB models currently used in GW searches and parameter estimation studies, thereby improving them when the binaries have high spins. Finally, we build an EOB model for quasi-circular nonspinning binaries based on the SMR approximation (rather than the PN one as usually done). We show how this is done in detail without incurring in the divergences that had affected previous attempts, and compare the resultant model against NR simulations. We find that the SMR approximation is an excellent approximation for all (quasi-circular nonspinning) binaries, including both the equal-mass binaries that are routinely detected in GW searches and the ones with highly asymmetric masses. In particular, the SMR-based models compare much better than the PN models, suggesting that SMR-informed EOB models might be the key to model binaries in the future. In the second task of this thesis, we work within the linear-signal ap- proximation and describe generic metrics to predict inference biases on the parameters of a GW source of interest in the presence of confusion noise from unfitted foregrounds and from residuals of other signals that have been incorrectly fitted out. We illustrate the formalism with simple (yet realistic) LISA sources, and demonstrate its validity against Monte-Carlo simulations. The metrics we describe pave the way for more realistic studies to quantify the biases with future ground-based and spaceborne detectors.
Water management and environmental protection is vulnerable to extreme low flows during streamflow droughts. During the last decades, in most rivers of Central Europe summer runoff and low flows have decreased. Discharge projections agree that future decrease in runoff is likely for catchments in Brandenburg, Germany. Depending on the first-order controls on low flows, different adaption measures are expected to be appropriate. Small catchments were analyzed because they are expected to be more vulnerable to a changing climate than larger rivers. They are mainly headwater catchments with smaller ground water storage. Local characteristics are more important at this scale and can increase vulnerability. This thesis mutually evaluates potential adaption measures to sustain minimum runoff in small catchments of Brandenburg, Germany, and similarities of these catchments regarding low flows. The following guiding questions are addressed: (i) Which first-order controls on low flows and related time scales exist? (ii) Which are the differences between small catchments regarding low flow vulnerability? (iii) Which adaption measures to sustain minimum runoff in small catchments of Brandenburg are appropriate considering regional low flow patterns? Potential adaption measures to sustain minimum runoff during periods of low flows can be classified into three categories: (i) increase of groundwater recharge and subsequent baseflow by land use change, land management and artificial ground water recharge, (ii) increase of water storage with regulated outflow by reservoirs, lakes and wetland water management and (iii) regional low flow patterns have to be considered during planning of measures with multiple purposes (urban water management, waste water recycling and inter-basin water transfer). The question remained whether water management of areas with shallow groundwater tables can efficiently sustain minimum runoff. Exemplary, water management scenarios of a ditch irrigated area were evaluated using the model Hydrus-2D. Increasing antecedent water levels and stopping ditch irrigation during periods of low flows increased fluxes from the pasture to the stream, but storage was depleted faster during the summer months due to higher evapotranspiration. Fluxes from this approx. 1 km long pasture with an area of approx. 13 ha ranged from 0.3 to 0.7 l\s depending on scenario. This demonstrates that numerous of such small decentralized measures are necessary to sustain minimum runoff in meso-scale catchments. Differences in the low flow risk of catchments and meteorological low flow predictors were analyzed. A principal component analysis was applied on daily discharge of 37 catchments between 1991 and 2006. Flows decreased more in Southeast Brandenburg according to meteorological forcing. Low flow risk was highest in a region east of Berlin because of intersection of a more continental climate and the specific geohydrology. In these catchments, flows decreased faster during summer and the low flow period was prolonged. A non-linear support vector machine regression was applied to iteratively select meteorological predictors for annual 30-day minimum runoff in 16 catchments between 1965 and 2006. The potential evapotranspiration sum of the previous 48 months was the most important predictor (r²=0.28). The potential evapotranspiration of the previous 3 months and the precipitation of the previous 3 months and last year increased model performance (r²=0.49, including all four predictors). Model performance was higher for catchments with low yield and more damped runoff. In catchments with high low flow risk, explanatory power of long term potential evapotranspiration was high. Catchments with a high low flow risk as well as catchments with a considerable decrease in flows in southeast Brandenburg have the highest demand for adaption. Measures increasing groundwater recharge are to be preferred. Catchments with high low flow risk showed relatively deep and decreasing groundwater heads allowing increased groundwater recharge at recharge areas with higher altitude away from the streams. Low flows are expected to stay low or decrease even further because long term potential evapotranspiration was the most important low flow predictor and is projected to increase during climate change. Differences in low flow risk and runoff dynamics between catchments have to be considered for management and planning of measures which do not only have the task to sustain minimum runoff.
One of the most exciting predictions of Einstein's theory of gravitation that have not yet been proven experimentally by a direct detection are gravitational waves. These are tiny distortions of the spacetime itself, and a world-wide effort to directly measure them for the first time with a network of large-scale laser interferometers is currently ongoing and expected to provide positive results within this decade. One potential source of measurable gravitational waves is the inspiral and merger of two compact objects, such as binary black holes. Successfully finding their signature in the noise-dominated data of the detectors crucially relies on accurate predictions of what we are looking for. In this thesis, we present a detailed study of how the most complete waveform templates can be constructed by combining the results from (A) analytical expansions within the post-Newtonian framework and (B) numerical simulations of the full relativistic dynamics. We analyze various strategies to construct complete hybrid waveforms that consist of a post-Newtonian inspiral part matched to numerical-relativity data. We elaborate on exsisting approaches for nonspinning systems by extending the accessible parameter space and introducing an alternative scheme based in the Fourier domain. Our methods can now be readily applied to multiple spherical-harmonic modes and precessing systems. In addition to that, we analyze in detail the accuracy of hybrid waveforms with the goal to quantify how numerous sources of error in the approximation techniques affect the application of such templates in real gravitational-wave searches. This is of major importance for the future construction of improved models, but also for the correct interpretation of gravitational-wave observations that are made utilizing any complete waveform family. In particular, we comprehensively discuss how long the numerical-relativity contribution to the signal has to be in order to make the resulting hybrids accurate enough, and for currently feasible simulation lengths we assess the physics one can potentially do with template-based searches.
The strong chromospheric absorption lines Ca ii H & K are tightly connected to stellar surface magnetic fields. Only for the Sun, spectral activity indices can be related to evolving magnetic features on the solar disk. The Solar Disk-Integrated (SDI) telescope feeds the Potsdam Echelle Polarimetric and Spectroscopic Instrument (PEPSI) of the Large Binocular Telescope (LBT) at Mt. Graham International Observatory, Arizona, U.S.A. We present high-resolution, high-fidelity spectra that were recorded on 184 & 82 days in 2018 & 2019 and derive the Ca ii H & K emission ratio, that is, the S-index. In addition, we compile excess brightness and area indices based on full-disk Ca ii K-line-core filtergrams of the Chromospheric Telescope (ChroTel) at Observatorio del Teide, Tenerife, Spain and full-disk ultraviolet (UV) 1600 angstrom images of the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) onboard the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO). Thus, Sun-as-a-star spectral indices are related to their counterparts derived from resolved images of the solar chromosphere. All indices display signatures of rotational modulation, even during the very low magnetic activity in the minimum of Solar Cycle 24. Bringing together different types of activity indices has the potential to join disparate chromospheric datasets yielding a comprehensive description of chromospheric activity across many solar cycles.
Complex network theory provides an elegant and powerful framework to statistically investigate the topology of local and long range dynamical interrelationships, i.e., teleconnections, in the climate system. Employing a refined methodology relying on linear and nonlinear measures of time series analysis, the intricate correlation structure within a multivariate climatological data set is cast into network form. Within this graph theoretical framework, vertices are identified with grid points taken from the data set representing a region on the the Earth's surface, and edges correspond to strong statistical interrelationships between the dynamics on pairs of grid points. The resulting climate networks are neither perfectly regular nor completely random, but display the intriguing and nontrivial characteristics of complexity commonly found in real world networks such as the internet, citation and acquaintance networks, food webs and cortical networks in the mammalian brain. Among other interesting properties, climate networks exhibit the "small-world" effect and possess a broad degree distribution with dominating super-nodes as well as a pronounced community structure. We have performed an extensive and detailed graph theoretical analysis of climate networks on the global topological scale focussing on the flow and centrality measure betweenness which is locally defined at each vertex, but includes global topological information by relying on the distribution of shortest paths between all pairs of vertices in the network. The betweenness centrality field reveals a rich internal structure in complex climate networks constructed from reanalysis and atmosphere-ocean coupled general circulation model (AOGCM) surface air temperature data. Our novel approach uncovers an elaborately woven meta-network of highly localized channels of strong dynamical information flow, that we relate to global surface ocean currents and dub the backbone of the climate network in analogy to the homonymous data highways of the internet. This finding points to a major role of the oceanic surface circulation in coupling and stabilizing the global temperature field in the long term mean (140 years for the model run and 60 years for reanalysis data). Carefully comparing the backbone structures detected in climate networks constructed using linear Pearson correlation and nonlinear mutual information, we argue that the high sensitivity of betweenness with respect to small changes in network structure may allow to detect the footprints of strongly nonlinear physical interactions in the climate system. The results presented in this thesis are thoroughly founded and substantiated using a hierarchy of statistical significance tests on the level of time series and networks, i.e., by tests based on time series surrogates as well as network surrogates. This is particularly relevant when working with real world data. Specifically, we developed new types of network surrogates to include the additional constraints imposed by the spatial embedding of vertices in a climate network. Our methodology is of potential interest for a broad audience within the physics community and various applied fields, because it is universal in the sense of being valid for any spatially extended dynamical system. It can help to understand the localized flow of dynamical information in any such system by combining multivariate time series analysis, a complex network approach and the information flow measure betweenness centrality. Possible fields of application include fluid dynamics (turbulence), plasma physics and biological physics (population models, neural networks, cell models). Furthermore, the climate network approach is equally relevant for experimental data as well as model simulations and hence introduces a novel perspective on model evaluation and data driven model building. Our work is timely in the context of the current debate on climate change within the scientific community, since it allows to assess from a new perspective the regional vulnerability and stability of the climate system while relying on global and not only on regional knowledge. The methodology developed in this thesis hence has the potential to substantially contribute to the understanding of the local effect of extreme events and tipping points in the earth system within a holistic global framework.
The H.E.S.S. array is a third generation Imaging Atmospheric Cherenkov Telescope (IACT) array. It is located in the Khomas Highland in Namibia, and measures very high energy (VHE) gamma-rays. In Phase I, the array started data taking in 2004 with its four identical 13 m telescopes. Since then, H.E.S.S. has emerged as the most successful IACT experiment to date. Among the almost 150 sources of VHE gamma-ray radiation found so far, even the oldest detection, the Crab Nebula, keeps surprising the scientific community with unexplained phenomena such as the recently discovered very energetic flares of high energy gamma-ray radiation. During its most recent flare, which was detected by the Fermi satellite in March 2013, the Crab Nebula was simultaneously observed with the H.E.S.S. array for six nights. The results of the observations will be discussed in detail during the course of this work. During the nights of the flare, the new 24 m × 32 m H.E.S.S. II telescope was still being commissioned, but participated in the data taking for one night. To be able to reconstruct and analyze the data of the H.E.S.S. Phase II array, the algorithms and software used by the H.E.S.S. Phase I array had to be adapted. The most prominent advanced shower reconstruction technique developed by de Naurois and Rolland, the template-based model analysis, compares real shower images taken by the Cherenkov telescope cameras with shower templates obtained using a semi-analytical model. To find the best fitting image, and, therefore, the relevant parameters that describe the air shower best, a pixel-wise log-likelihood fit is done. The adaptation of this advanced shower reconstruction technique to the heterogeneous H.E.S.S. Phase II array for stereo events (i.e. air showers seen by at least two telescopes of any kind), its performance using MonteCarlo simulations as well as its application to real data will be described.
The occurrence of earthquakes is characterized by a high degree of spatiotemporal complexity. Although numerous patterns, e.g. fore- and aftershock sequences, are well-known, the underlying mechanisms are not observable and thus not understood. Because the recurrence times of large earthquakes are usually decades or centuries, the number of such events in corresponding data sets is too small to draw conclusions with reasonable statistical significance. Therefore, the present study combines both, numerical modeling and analysis of real data in order to unveil the relationships between physical mechanisms and observational quantities. The key hypothesis is the validity of the so-called "critical point concept" for earthquakes, which assumes large earthquakes to occur as phase transitions in a spatially extended many-particle system, similar to percolation models. New concepts are developed to detect critical states in simulated and in natural data sets. The results indicate that important features of seismicity like the frequency-size distribution and the temporal clustering of earthquakes depend on frictional and structural fault parameters. In particular, the degree of quenched spatial disorder (the "roughness") of a fault zone determines whether large earthquakes occur quasiperiodically or more clustered. This illustrates the power of numerical models in order to identify regions in parameter space, which are relevant for natural seismicity. The critical point concept is verified for both, synthetic and natural seismicity, in terms of a critical state which precedes a large earthquake: a gradual roughening of the (unobservable) stress field leads to a scale-free (observable) frequency-size distribution. Furthermore, the growth of the spatial correlation length and the acceleration of the seismic energy release prior to large events is found. The predictive power of these precursors is, however, limited. Instead of forecasting time, location, and magnitude of individual events, a contribution to a broad multiparameter approach is encouraging.
This thesis describes two main projects; the first one is the optimization of a hierarchical search strategy to search for unknown pulsars. This project is divided into two parts; the first part (and the main part) is the semi-coherent hierarchical optimization strategy. The second part is a coherent hierarchical optimization strategy which can be used in a project like Einstein@Home. In both strategies we have found that the 3-stages search is the optimum strategy to search for unknown pulsars. For the second project we have developed a computer software for a coherent Multi-IFO (Interferometer Observatory) search. To validate our software, we have worked on simulated data as well as hardware injected signals of pulsars in the fourth LIGO science run (S4). While with the current sensitivity of our detectors we do not expect to detect any true Gravitational Wave signals in our data, we can still set upper limits on the strength of the gravitational waves signals. These upper limits, in fact, tell us how weak a signal strength we would detect. We have also used our software to set upper limits on the signal strength of known isolated pulsars using LIGO fifth science run (S5) data.
Objective: Several different measures of heart rate variability, and particularly of respiratory sinus arrhythmia, are widely used in research and clinical applications. For many purposes it is important to know which features of heart rate variability are directly related to respiration and which are caused by other aspects of cardiac dynamics. Approach: Inspired by ideas from the theory of coupled oscillators, we use simultaneous measurements of respiratory and cardiac activity to perform a nonlinear disentanglement of the heart rate variability into the respiratory-related component and the rest. Main results: The theoretical consideration is illustrated by the analysis of 25 data sets from healthy subjects. In all cases we show how the disentanglement is manifested in the different measures of heart rate variability. Significance: The suggested technique can be exploited as a universal preprocessing tool, both for the analysis of respiratory influence on the heart rate and in cases when effects of other factors on the heart rate variability are in focus.
Objective: Several different measures of heart rate variability, and particularly of respiratory sinus arrhythmia, are widely used in research and clinical applications. For many purposes it is important to know which features of heart rate variability are directly related to respiration and which are caused by other aspects of cardiac dynamics. Approach: Inspired by ideas from the theory of coupled oscillators, we use simultaneous measurements of respiratory and cardiac activity to perform a nonlinear disentanglement of the heart rate variability into the respiratory-related component and the rest. Main results: The theoretical consideration is illustrated by the analysis of 25 data sets from healthy subjects. In all cases we show how the disentanglement is manifested in the different measures of heart rate variability. Significance: The suggested technique can be exploited as a universal preprocessing tool, both for the analysis of respiratory influence on the heart rate and in cases when effects of other factors on the heart rate variability are in focus.