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Global heat adaptation among urban populations and its evolution under different climate futures
(2022)
Heat and increasing ambient temperatures under climate change represent a serious threat to human health in cities. Heat exposure has been studied extensively at a global scale. Studies comparing a defined temperature threshold with the future daytime temperature during a certain period of time, had concluded an increase in threat to human health. Such findings however do not explicitly account for possible changes in future human heat adaptation and might even overestimate heat exposure. Thus, heat adaptation and its development is still unclear. Human heat adaptation refers to the local temperature to which populations are adjusted to. It can be inferred from the lowest point of the U- or V-shaped heat-mortality relationship (HMR), the Minimum Mortality Temperature (MMT). While epidemiological studies inform on the MMT at the city scale for case studies, a general model applicable at the global scale to infer on temporal change in MMTs had not yet been realised. The conventional approach depends on data availability, their robustness, and on the access to daily mortality records at the city scale. Thorough analysis however must account for future changes in the MMT as heat adaptation happens partially passively. Human heat adaptation consists of two aspects: (1) the intensity of the heat hazard that is still tolerated by human populations, meaning the heat burden they can bear and (2) the wealth-induced technological, social and behavioural measures that can be employed to avoid heat exposure. The objective of this thesis is to investigate and quantify human heat adaptation among urban populations at a global scale under the current climate and to project future adaptation under climate change until the end of the century. To date, this has not yet been accomplished. The evaluation of global heat adaptation among urban populations and its evolution under climate change comprises three levels of analysis. First, using the example of Germany, the MMT is calculated at the city level by applying the conventional method. Second, this thesis compiles a data pool of 400 urban MMTs to develop and train a new model capable of estimating MMTs on the basis of physical and socio-economic city characteristics using multivariate non-linear multivariate regression. The MMT is successfully described as a function of the current climate, the topography and the socio-economic standard, independently of daily mortality data for cities around the world. The city-specific MMT estimates represents a measure of human heat adaptation among the urban population. In a final third analysis, the model to derive human heat adaptation was adjusted to be driven by projected climate and socio-economic variables for the future. This allowed for estimation of the MMT and its change for 3 820 cities worldwide for different combinations of climate trajectories and socio-economic pathways until 2100. The knowledge on the evolution of heat adaptation in the future is a novelty as mostly heat exposure and its future development had been researched. In this work, changes in heat adaptation and exposure were analysed jointly. A wide range of possible health-related outcomes up to 2100 was the result, of which two scenarios with the highest socio-economic developments but opposing strong warming levels were highlighted for comparison. Strong economic growth based upon fossil fuel exploitation is associated with a high gain in heat adaptation, but may not be able to compensate for the associated negative health effects due to increased heat exposure in 30% to 40% of the cities investigated caused by severe climate change. A slightly less strong, but sustainable growth brings moderate gains in heat adaptation but a lower heat exposure and exposure reductions in 80% to 84% of the cities in terms of frequency (number of days exceeding the MMT) and intensity (magnitude of the MMT exceedance) due to a milder global warming. Choosing a 2 ° C compatible development by 2100 would therefore lower the risk of heat-related mortality at the end of the century. In summary, this thesis makes diverse and multidisciplinary contributions to a deeper understanding of human adaptation to heat under the current and the future climate. It is one of the first studies to carry out a systematic and statistical analysis of urban characteristics which are useful as MMT drivers to establish a generalised model of human heat adaptation, applicable at the global level. A broad range of possible heat-related health options for various future scenarios was shown for the first time. This work is of relevance for the assessment of heat-health impacts in regions where mortality data are not accessible or missing. The results are useful for health care planning at the meso- and macro-level and to urban- and climate change adaptation planning. Lastly, beyond having met the posed objective, this thesis advances research towards a global future impact assessment of heat on human health by providing an alternative method of MMT estimation, that is spatially and temporally flexible in its application.
On a planetary scale human populations need to adapt to both socio-economic and environmental problems amidst rapid global change. This holds true for coupled human-environment (socio-ecological) systems in rural and urban settings alike. Two examples are drylands and urban coasts. Such socio-ecological systems have a global distribution. Therefore, advancing the knowledge base for identifying socio-ecological adaptation needs with local vulnerability assessments alone is infeasible: The systems cover vast areas, while funding, time, and human resources for local assessments are limited. They are lacking in low an middle-income countries (LICs and MICs) in particular.
But places in a specific socio-ecological system are not only unique and complex – they also exhibit similarities. A global patchwork of local rural drylands vulnerability assessments of human populations to socio-ecological and environmental problems has already been reduced to a limited number of problem structures, which typically cause vulnerability. However, the question arises whether this is also possible in urban socio-ecological systems. The question also arises whether these typologies provide added value in research beyond global change. Finally, the methodology employed for drylands needs refining and standardizing to increase its uptake in the scientific community. In this dissertation, I set out to fill these three gaps in research.
The geographical focus in my dissertation is on LICs and MICs, which generally have lower capacities to adapt, and greater adaptation needs, regarding rapid global change. Using a spatially explicit indicator-based methodology, I combine geospatial and clustering methods to identify typical configurations of key factors in case studies causing vulnerability to human populations in two specific socio-ecological systems. Then I use statistical and analytical methods to interpret and appraise both the typical configurations and the global typologies they constitute.
First, I improve the indicator-based methodology and then reanalyze typical global problem structures of socio-ecological drylands vulnerability with seven indicator datasets. The reanalysis confirms the key tenets and produces a more realistic and nuanced typology of eight spatially explicit problem structures, or vulnerability profiles: Two new profiles with typically high natural resource endowment emerge, in which overpopulation has led to medium or high soil erosion. Second, I determine whether the new drylands typology and its socio-ecological vulnerability concept advance a thematically linked scientific debate in human security studies: what drives violent conflict in drylands? The typology is a much better predictor for conflict distribution and incidence in drylands than regression models typically used in peace research. Third, I analyze global problem structures typically causing vulnerability in an urban socio-ecological system - the rapidly urbanizing coastal fringe (RUCF) – with eleven indicator datasets. The RUCF also shows a robust typology, and its seven profiles show huge asymmetries in vulnerability and adaptive capacity. The fastest population increase, lowest income, most ineffective governments, most prevalent poverty, and lowest adaptive capacity are all typically stacked in two profiles in LICs. This shows that beyond local case studies tropical cyclones and/or coastal flooding are neither stalling rapid population growth, nor urban expansion, in the RUCF. I propose entry points for scaling up successful vulnerability reduction strategies in coastal cities within the same vulnerability profile.
This dissertation shows that patchworks of local vulnerability assessments can be generalized to structure global socio-ecological vulnerabilities in both rural and urban socio-ecological systems according to typical problems. In terms of climate-related extreme events in the RUCF, conflicting problem structures and means to deal with them are threatening to widen the development gap between LICs and high-income countries unless successful vulnerability reduction measures are comprehensively scaled up. The explanatory power for human security in drylands warrants further applications of the methodology beyond global environmental change research in the future. Thus, analyzing spatially explicit global typologies of socio-ecological vulnerability is a useful complement to local assessments: The typologies provide entry points for where to consider which generic measures to reduce typical problem structures – including the countless places without local assessments. This can save limited time and financial resources for adaptation under rapid global change.