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Different lake systems might reflect different climate elements of climate changes, while the responses of lake systems are also divers, and are not completely understood so far. Therefore, a comparison of lakes in different climate zones, during the high-amplitude and abrupt climate fluctuations of the Last Glacial to Holocene transition provides an exceptional opportunity to investigate distinct natural lake system responses to different abrupt climate changes. The aim of this doctoral thesis was to reconstruct climatic and environmental fluctuations down to (sub-) annual resolution from two different lake systems during the Last Glacial-Interglacial transition (~17 and 11 ka). Lake Gościąż, situated in the temperate central Poland, developed in the Allerød after recession of the Last Glacial ice sheets. The Dead Sea is located in the Levant (eastern Mediterranean) within a steep gradient from sub-humid to hyper-arid climate, and formed in the mid-Miocene. Despite their differences in sedimentation processes, both lakes form annual laminations (varves), which are crucial for studies of abrupt climate fluctuations. This doctoral thesis was carried out within the DFG project PALEX-II (Paleohydrology and Extreme Floods from the Dead Sea ICDP Core) that investigates extreme hydro-meteorological events in the ICDP core in relation to climate changes, and ICLEA (Virtual Institute of Integrated Climate and Landscape Evolution Analyses) that intends to better the understanding of climate dynamics and landscape evolutions in north-central Europe since the Last Glacial. Further, it contributes to the Helmholtz Climate Initiative REKLIM (Regional Climate Change and Humans) Research Theme 3 “Extreme events across temporal and spatial scales” that investigates extreme events using climate data, paleo-records and model-based simulations. The three main aims were to (1) establish robust chronologies of the lakes, (2) investigate how major and abrupt climate changes affect the lake systems, and (3) to compare the responses of the two varved lakes to these hemispheric-scale climate changes.
Robust chronologies are a prerequisite for high-resolved climate and environmental reconstructions, as well as for archive comparisons. Thus, addressing the first aim, the novel chronology of Lake Gościąż was established by microscopic varve counting and Bayesian age-depth modelling in Bacon for a non-varved section, and was corroborated by independent age constrains from 137Cs activity concentration measurements, AMS radiocarbon dating and pollen analysis. The varve chronology reaches from the late Allerød until AD 2015, revealing more Holocene varves than a previous study of Lake Gościąż suggested. Varve formation throughout the complete Younger Dryas (YD) even allowed the identification of annually- to decadal-resolved leads and lags in proxy responses at the YD transitions.
The lateglacial chronology of the Dead Sea (DS) was thus far mainly based on radiocarbon and U/Th-dating. In the unique ICDP core from the deep lake centre, continuous search for cryptotephra has been carried out in lateglacial sediments between two prominent gypsum deposits – the Upper and Additional Gypsum Units (UGU and AGU, respectively). Two cryptotephras were identified with glass analyses that correlate with tephra deposits from the Süphan and Nemrut volcanoes indicating that the AGU is ~1000 years younger than previously assumed, shifting it into the YD, and the underlying varved interval into the Bølling/Allerød, contradicting previous assumptions.
Using microfacies analyses, stable isotopes and temperature reconstructions, the second aim was achieved at Lake Gościąż. The YD lake system was dynamic, characterized by higher aquatic bioproductivity, more re-suspended material and less anoxia than during the Allerød and Early Holocene, mainly influenced by stronger water circulation and catchment erosion due to stronger westerly winds and less lake sheltering. Cooling at the YD onset was ~100 years longer than the final warming, while environmental proxies lagged the onset of cooling by ~90 years, but occurred contemporaneously during the termination of the YD. Chironomid-based temperature reconstructions support recent studies indicating mild YD summer temperatures. Such a comparison of annually-resolved proxy responses to both abrupt YD transitions is rare, because most European lake archives do not preserve varves during the YD.
To accomplish the second aim at the DS, microfacies analyses were performed between the UGU (~17 ka) and Holocene onset (~11 ka) in shallow- (Masada) and deep-water (ICDP core) environments. This time interval is marked by a huge but fluctuating lake level drop and therefore the complete transition into the Holocene is only recorded in the deep-basin ICDP core. In this thesis, this transition was investigated for the first time continuously and in detail. The final two pronounced lake level drops recorded by deposition of the UGU and AGU, were interrupted by one millennium of relative depositional stability and a positive water budget as recorded by aragonite varve deposition interrupted by only a few event layers. Further, intercalation of aragonite varves between the gypsum beds of the UGU and AGU shows that these generally dry intervals were also marked by decadal- to centennial-long rises in lake level. While continuous aragonite varves indicate decadal-long stable phases, the occurrence of thicker and more frequent event layers suggests general more instability during the gypsum units. These results suggest a pattern of complex and variable hydroclimate at different time scales during the Lateglacial at the DS.
The third aim was accomplished based on the individual studies above that jointly provide an integrated picture of different lake responses to different climate elements of hemispheric-scale abrupt climate changes during the Last Glacial-Interglacial transition. In general, climatically-driven facies changes are more dramatic in the DS than at Lake Gościąż. Further, Lake Gościąż is characterized by continuous varve formation nearly throughout the complete profile, whereas the DS record is widely characterized by extreme event layers, hampering the establishment of a continuous varve chronology. The lateglacial sedimentation in Lake Gościąż is mainly influenced by westerly winds and minor by changes in catchment vegetation, whereas the DS is primarily influenced by changes in winter precipitation, which are caused by temperature variations in the Mediterranean. Interestingly, sedimentation in both archives is more stable during the Bølling/Allerød and more dynamic during the YD, even when sedimentation processes are different.
In summary, this doctoral thesis presents seasonally-resolved records from two lake archives during the Lateglacial (ca 17-11 ka) to investigate the impact of abrupt climate changes in different lake systems. New age constrains from the identification of volcanic glass shards in the lateglacial sediments of the DS allowed the first lithology-based interpretation of the YD in the DS record and its comparison to Lake Gościąż. This highlights the importance of the construction of a robust chronology, and provides a first step for synchronization of the DS with other eastern Mediterranean archives. Further, climate reconstructions from the lake sediments showed variability on different time scales in the different archives, i.e. decadal- to millennial fluctuations in the lateglacial DS, and even annual variations and sub-decadal leads and lags in proxy responses during the rapid YD transitions in Lake Gościąż. This showed the importance of a comparison of different lake archives to better understand the regional and local impacts of hemispheric-scale climate variability. An unprecedented example is demonstrated here of how different lake systems show different lake responses and also react to different climate elements of abrupt climate changes. This further highlights the importance of the understanding of the respective lake system for climate reconstructions.
Technological progress allows for producing ever more complex predictive models on the basis of increasingly big datasets. For risk management of natural hazards, a multitude of models is needed as basis for decision-making, e.g. in the evaluation of observational data, for the prediction of hazard scenarios, or for statistical estimates of expected damage. The question arises, how modern modelling approaches like machine learning or data-mining can be meaningfully deployed in this thematic field. In addition, with respect to data availability and accessibility, the trend is towards open data. Topic of this thesis is therefore to investigate the possibilities and limitations of machine learning and open geospatial data in the field of flood risk modelling in the broad sense. As this overarching topic is broad in scope, individual relevant aspects are identified and inspected in detail.
A prominent data source in the flood context is satellite-based mapping of inundated areas, for example made openly available by the Copernicus service of the European Union. Great expectations are directed towards these products in scientific literature, both for acute support of relief forces during emergency response action, and for modelling via hydrodynamic models or for damage estimation. Therefore, a focus of this work was set on evaluating these flood masks. From the observation that the quality of these products is insufficient in forested and built-up areas, a procedure for subsequent improvement via machine learning was developed. This procedure is based on a classification algorithm that only requires training data from a particular class to be predicted, in this specific case data of flooded areas, but not of the negative class (dry areas). The application for hurricane Harvey in Houston shows the high potential of this method, which depends on the quality of the initial flood mask.
Next, it is investigated how much the predicted statistical risk from a process-based model chain is dependent on implemented physical process details. Thereby it is demonstrated what a risk study based on established models can deliver. Even for fluvial flooding, such model chains are already quite complex, though, and are hardly available for compound or cascading events comprising torrential rainfall, flash floods, and other processes. In the fourth chapter of this thesis it is therefore tested whether machine learning based on comprehensive damage data can offer a more direct path towards damage modelling, that avoids explicit conception of such a model chain. For that purpose, a state-collected dataset of damaged buildings from the severe El Niño event 2017 in Peru is used. In this context, the possibilities of data-mining for extracting process knowledge are explored as well. It can be shown that various openly available geodata sources contain useful information for flood hazard and damage modelling for complex events, e.g. satellite-based rainfall measurements, topographic and hydrographic information, mapped settlement areas, as well as indicators from spectral data. Further, insights on damaging processes are discovered, which mainly are in line with prior expectations. The maximum intensity of rainfall, for example, acts stronger in cities and steep canyons, while the sum of rain was found more informative in low-lying river catchments and forested areas. Rural areas of Peru exhibited higher vulnerability in the presented study compared to urban areas. However, the general limitations of the methods and the dependence on specific datasets and algorithms also become obvious.
In the overarching discussion, the different methods – process-based modelling, predictive machine learning, and data-mining – are evaluated with respect to the overall research questions. In the case of hazard observation it seems that a focus on novel algorithms makes sense for future research. In the subtopic of hazard modelling, especially for river floods, the improvement of physical models and the integration of process-based and statistical procedures is suggested. For damage modelling the large and representative datasets necessary for the broad application of machine learning are still lacking. Therefore, the improvement of the data basis in the field of damage is currently regarded as more important than the selection of algorithms.
Localisation of deformation is a ubiquitous feature in continental rift dynamics and observed across drastically different time and length scales. This thesis comprises one experimental and two numerical modelling studies investigating strain localisation in (1) a ductile shear zone induced by a material heterogeneity and (2) in an active continental rift setting. The studies are related by the fact that the weakening mechanisms on the crystallographic and grain size scale enable bulk rock weakening, which fundamentally enables the formation of shear zones, continental rifts and hence plate tectonics. Aiming to investigate the controlling mechanisms on initiation and evolution of a shear zone, the torsion experiments of the experimental study were conducted in a Patterson type apparatus with strong Carrara marble cylinders with a weak, planar Solnhofen limestone inclusion. Using state-of-the-art numerical modelling software, the torsion experiments were simulated to answer questions regarding localisation procedure like stress distribution or the impact of rheological weakening. 2D numerical models were also employed to integrate geophysical and geological data to explain characteristic tectonic evolution of the Southern and Central Kenya Rift. Key elements of the numerical tools are a randomized initial strain distribution and the usage of strain softening. During the torsion experiments, deformation begins to localise at the limestone inclusion tips in a process zone, which propagates into the marble matrix with increasing deformation until a ductile shear zone is established. Minor indicators for coexisting brittle deformation are found close to the inclusion tip and presumed to slightly facilitate strain localisation besides the dominant ductile deformation processes. The 2D numerical model of the torsion experiment successfully predicts local stress concentration and strain rate amplification ahead of the inclusion in first order agreement with the experimental results. A simple linear parametrization of strain weaking enables high accuracy reproduction of phenomenological aspects of the observed weakening. The torsion experiments suggest that loading conditions do not affect strain localisation during high temperature deformation of multiphase material with high viscosity contrasts. A numerical simulation can provide a way of analysing the process zone evolution virtually and extend the examinable frame. Furthermore, the nested structure and anastomosing shape of an ultramylonite band was mimicked with an additional second softening step. Rheological weakening is necessary to establish a shear zone in a strong matrix around a weak inclusion and for ultramylonite formation.
Such strain weakening laws are also incorporated into the numerical models of the
Southern and Central Kenya Rift that capture the characteristic tectonic evolution. A three-stage early rift evolution is suggested that starts with (1) the accommodation of strain by a single border fault and flexure of the hanging-wall crust, after which (2) faulting in the hanging-wall and the basin centre increases before (3) the early-stage asymmetry is lost and basinward localisation of deformation occurs. Along-strike variability of rifts can be produced by modifying the initial random noise distribution. In summary, the three studies address selected aspects of the broad range of mechanisms and processes that fundamentally enable the deformation of rock and govern the localisation patterns across the scales. In addition to the aforementioned results, the first and second manuscripts combined, demonstrate a procedure to find new or improve on existing numerical formulations for specific rheologies and their dynamic weakening. These formulations are essential in addressing rock deformation from the grain to the global scale. As within the third study of this thesis, where geodynamic controls on the evolution of a rift were examined and acquired by the integration of geological and geophysical data into a numerical model.
Diet analysis of bats killed at wind turbines suggests large-scale losses of trophic interactions
(2022)
Agricultural practice has led to landscape simplification and biodiversity decline, yet recently, energy-producing infrastructures, such as wind turbines, have been added to these simplified agroecosystems, turning them into multi-functional energy-agroecosystems. Here, we studied the trophic interactions of bats killed at wind turbines using a DNA metabarcoding approach to shed light on how turbine-related bat fatalities may possibly affect local habitats. Specifically, we identified insect DNA in the stomachs of common noctule bats (Nyctalus noctula) killed by wind turbines in Germany to infer in which habitats these bats hunted. Common noctule bats consumed a wide variety of insects from different habitats, ranging from aquatic to terrestrial ecosystems (e.g., wetlands, farmland, forests, and grasslands). Agricultural and silvicultural pest insects made up about 20% of insect species consumed by the studied bats. Our study suggests that the potential damage of wind energy production goes beyond the loss of bats and the decline of bat populations. Bat fatalities at wind turbines may lead to the loss of trophic interactions and ecosystem services provided by bats, which may add to the functional simplification and impaired crop production, respectively, in multi-functional ecosystems.
The Arctic is greatly affected by climate change. Increasing air temperatures drive permafrost thaw and an increase in coastal erosion and river discharge. This results in a greater input of sediment and organic matter into nearshore waters, impacting ecosystems by reducing light transmission through the water column and altering biogeochemistry. This potentially results in impacts on the subsistence economy of local people as well as the climate due to the transformation of suspended organic matter into greenhouse gases. Even though the impacts of increased suspended sediment concentrations and turbidity in the Arctic nearshore zone are well-studied, the mechanisms underpinning this increase are largely unknown. Wave energy and tides drive the level of turbidity in the temperate and tropical parts of the world, and this is generally assumed to also be the case in the Arctic. However, the tidal range is considerably lower in the Arctic, and processes related to the occurrence of permafrost have the potential to greatly contribute to nearshore turbidity. In this study, we use high-resolution satellite imagery alongside in situ and ERA5 reanalysis data of ocean and climate variables in order to identify the drivers of nearshore turbidity, along with its seasonality in the nearshore waters of Herschel Island Qikiqtaruk, in the western Canadian Arctic. Nearshore turbidity correlates well to wind direction, wind speed, significant wave height, and wave period. Nearshore turbidity is superiorly correlated to wind speed at the Beaufort Shelf compared to in situ measurements at Herschel Island Qikiqtaruk, showing that nearshore turbidity, albeit being of limited spatial extent, is influenced by large-scale weather and ocean phenomenons. We show that, in contrast to the temperate and tropical ocean, freshly eroded material is the predominant driver of nearshore turbidity in the Arctic, rather than resuspension, which is caused by the vulnerability of permafrost coasts to thermo-erosion.
Plate tectonics describes the movement of rigid plates at the surface of the Earth as well as their complex deformation at three types of plate boundaries: 1) divergent boundaries such as rift zones and mid-ocean ridges, 2) strike-slip boundaries where plates grind past each other, such as the San Andreas Fault, and 3) convergent boundaries that form large mountain ranges like the Andes. The generally narrow deformation zones that bound the plates exhibit complex strain patterns that evolve through time. During this evolution, plate boundary deformation is driven by tectonic forces arising from Earth’s deep interior and from within the lithosphere, but also by surface processes, which erode topographic highs and deposit the resulting sediment into regions of low elevation. Through the combination of these factors, the surface of the Earth evolves in a highly dynamic way with several feedback mechanisms. At divergent boundaries, for example, tensional stresses thin the lithosphere, forcing uplift and subsequent erosion of rift flanks, which creates a sediment source. Meanwhile, the rift center subsides and becomes a topographic low where sediments accumulate. This mass transfer from foot- to hanging wall plays an important role during rifting, as it prolongs the activity of individual normal faults. When rifting continues, continents are eventually split apart, exhuming Earth’s mantle and creating new oceanic crust. Because of the complex interplay between deep tectonic forces that shape plate boundaries and mass redistribution at the Earth’s surface, it is vital to understand feedbacks between the two domains and how they shape our planet.
In this study I aim to provide insight on two primary questions: 1) How do divergent and strike-slip plate boundaries evolve? 2) How is this evolution, on a large temporal scale and a smaller structural scale, affected by the alteration of the surface through erosion and deposition? This is done in three chapters that examine the evolution of divergent and strike-slip plate boundaries using numerical models. Chapter 2 takes a detailed look at the evolution of rift systems using two-dimensional models. Specifically, I extract faults from a range of rift models and correlate them through time to examine how fault networks evolve in space and time. By implementing a two-way coupling between the geodynamic code ASPECT and landscape evolution code FastScape, I investigate how the fault network and rift evolution are influenced by the system’s erosional efficiency, which represents many factors like lithology or climate. In Chapter 3, I examine rift evolution from a three-dimensional perspective. In this chapter I study linkage modes for offset rifts to determine when fast-rotating plate-boundary structures known as continental microplates form. Chapter 4 uses the two-way numerical coupling between tectonics and landscape evolution to investigate how a strike-slip boundary responds to large sediment loads, and whether this is sufficient to form an entirely new type of flexural strike-slip basin.
Sea level rise and coastal erosion have inundated large areas of Arctic permafrost. Submergence by warm and saline waters increases the rate of inundated permafrost thaw compared to sub-aerial thawing on land. Studying the contact between the unfrozen and frozen sediments below the seabed, also known as the ice-bearing permafrost table (IBPT), provides valuable information to understand the evolution of sub-aquatic permafrost, which is key to improving and understanding coastal erosion prediction models and potential greenhouse gas emissions. In this study, we use data from 2D electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) collected in the nearshore coastal zone of two Arctic regions that differ in their environmental conditions (e.g., seawater depth and resistivity) to image and study the subsea permafrost. The inversion of 2D ERT data sets is commonly performed using deterministic approaches that favor smoothed solutions, which are typically interpreted using a user-specified resistivity threshold to identify the IBPT position. In contrast, to target the IBPT position directly during inversion, we use a layer-based model parameterization and a global optimization approach to invert our ERT data. This approach results in ensembles of layered 2D model solutions, which we use to identify the IBPT and estimate the resistivity of the unfrozen and frozen sediments, including estimates of uncertainties. Additionally, we globally invert 1D synthetic resistivity data and perform sensitivity analyses to study, in a simpler way, the correlations and influences of our model parameters. The set of methods provided in this study may help to further exploit ERT data collected in such permafrost environments as well as for the design of future field experiments.
Salt deposits offer a variety of usage types. These include the mining of rock salt and potash salt as important raw materials, the storage of energy in man-made underground caverns, and the disposal of hazardous substances in former mines. The most serious risk with any of these usage types comes from the contact with groundwater or surface water. It causes an uncontrolled dissolution of salt rock, which in the worst case can result in the flooding or collapse of underground facilities. Especially along potash seams, cavernous structures can spread quickly, because potash salts show a much higher solubility than rock salt. However, as their chemical behavior is quite complex, previous models do not account for these highly soluble interlayers. Therefore, the objective of the present thesis is to describe the evolution of cavernous structures along potash seams in space and time in order to improve hazard mitigation during the utilization of salt deposits.
The formation of cavernous structures represents an interplay of chemical and hydraulic processes. Hence, the first step is to systematically investigate the dissolution and precipitation reactions that occur when water and potash salt come into contact. For this purpose, a geochemical reaction model is used. The results show that the minerals are only partially dissolved, resulting in a porous sponge like structure. With the saturation of the solution increasing, various secondary minerals are formed, whose number and type depend on the original rock composition. Field data confirm a correlation between the degree of saturation and the distance from the center of the cavern, where solution is entering. Subsequently, the reaction model is coupled with a flow and transport code and supplemented by a novel approach called ‘interchange’. The latter enables the exchange of solution and rock between areas of different porosity and mineralogy, and thus ultimately the growth of the cavernous structure. By means of several scenario analyses, cavern shape, growth rate and mineralogy are systematically investigated, taking also heterogeneous potash seams into account. The results show that basically four different cases can be distinguished, with mixed forms being a frequent occurrence in nature. The classification scheme is based on the dimensionless numbers Péclet and Damköhler, and allows for a first assessment of the hazard potential. In future, the model can be applied to any field case, using measurement data for calibration.
The presented research work provides a reactive transport model that is able to spatially and temporally characterize the propagation of cavernous structures along potash seams for the first time. Furthermore, it allows to determine thickness and composition of transition zones between cavern center and unaffected salt rock. The latter is particularly important in potash mining, so that natural cavernous structures can be located at an early stage and the risk of mine flooding can thus be reduced. The models may also contribute to an improved hazard prevention in the construction of storage caverns and the disposal of hazardous waste in salt deposits. Predictions regarding the characteristics and evolution of cavernous structures enable a better assessment of potential hazards, such as integrity or stability loss, as well as of suitable mitigation measures.
The Permo-Triassic period marks the time interval between Hercynian (Variscan) orogenic events in the Tien Shan and the North Pamir, and the Cimmerian accretion of the Gondwana-derived Central and South Pamir to the southern margin of the Paleo-Asian continent. A well-preserved Permo-Triassic volcano-sedimentary sequence from the Chinese North Pamir yields important information on the geodynamic evolution of Asia’s pre-Cimmerian southern margin. The oldest volcanic rocks from that section are dated to the late Guadalupian epoch by a rhyolite and a dacitic dike that gave zircon U-Pb ages of ~260 Ma. Permian volcanism was largely pyroclastic and mafic to intermediate. Upsection, a massive ignimbritic crystal tuff in the Chinese Qimgan valley was dated to 244.1 +/- 1.1 Ma, a similar unit in the nearby Gez valley to 245 +/- 11 Ma, and an associated rhyolite to 233.4 +/- 1.1 Ma. Deposition of the locally ~200 m thick crystal tuff unit follows an unconformity and marks the onset of intense, mainly mafic to intermediate, calc-alkaline magmatic activity. Triassic volcanic activity in the North Pamir was coeval with the major phase of Cimmerian intrusive activity in the Karakul-Mazar arc-accretionary complex to the south, caused by northward subduction of the Paleo-Tethys. It also coincided with the emplacement of basanitic and carbonatitic dikes and a thermal event in the South Tien Shan, to the north of our study area. Evidence for arc-related magmatic activity in a back-arc position provides strong arguments for back-arc extension or transtension and basin formation. This puts the Qimgan succession in line with a more than 1000 km long realm of extensional Triassic back-arc basins known from the North Pamir in the Kyrgyz Altyn Darya valley (Myntekin formation), the North Pamir of Tajikistan and Afghanistan, and the Afghan Hindukush (Doab formation) and further west from the Paropamisus and Kopet Dag (Aghdarband, NE Iran).
River-valley morphology preserves information on tectonic and climatic conditions that shape landscapes. Observations suggest that river discharge and valley-wall lithology are the main controls on valley width. Yet, current models based on these observations fail to explain the full range of cross-sectional valley shapes in nature, suggesting hitherto unquantified controls on valley width. In particular, current models cannot explain the existence of paired terrace sequences that form under cyclic climate forcing. Paired river terraces are staircases of abandoned floodplains on both valley sides, and hence preserve past valley widths. Their formation requires alternating phases of predominantly river incision and predominantly lateral planation, plus progressive valley narrowing. While cyclic Quaternary climate changes can explain shifts between incision and lateral erosion, the driving mechanism of valley narrowing is unknown. Here, we extract valley geometries from climatically formed, alluvial river-terrace sequences and show that across our dataset, the total cumulative terrace height (here: total valley height) explains 90%–99% of the variance in valley width at the terrace sites. This finding suggests that valley height, or a parameter that scales linearly with valley height, controls valley width in addition to river discharge and lithology. To explain this valley-width-height relationship, we reformulate existing valley-width models and suggest that, when adjusting to new boundary conditions, alluvial valleys evolve to a width at which sediment removal from valley walls matches lateral sediment supply from hillslope erosion. Such a hillslope-channel coupling is not captured in current valley-evolution models. Our model can explain the existence of paired terrace sequences under cyclic climate forcing and relates valley width to measurable field parameters. Therefore, it facilitates the reconstruction of past climatic and tectonic conditions from valley topography.