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Der Porenraum eines Karbonatgesteins ist zumeist aus einer spezifischen Vergesellschaftung verschiedenster Porentypen aufgebaut, die eine unterschiedliche Herkunft aufweisen und zusätzlich in ihrer Form und Größe stark variieren können (e.g., Melim et al., 2001; Lee et al., 2009; He et al., 2014; Dernaika & Sinclair, 2017; Zhang et al., 2017). Diese für Karbonate typischen multimodalen Porensysteme entstehen sowohl durch primäre Ablagerungsprozesse, als auch durch mehrmalige Modifikation des Porenraumes nach Ablagerung des Sediments. Dies führt zu einer ungleichen Verteilung der Porenraumeigenschaften auf engstem Raum und das zeitgleiche Auftreten von effektiven und ineffektiven Poren. Diese immanenten Unterschiede in der Effektivität einzelner Porentypen sind der Hauptgrund für die häufig sehr niedrige Korellation zwischen Porosität und Permeabilität in Karbonaten (e.g., Mazzullo 2004; Ehrenberg & Nadeau, 2005; Hollis et al., 2010; He et al., 2014; Rashid et al., 2015; Dernaika & Sinclair, 2017). Durch die Extraktion von miteinander verbundenen und somit effektiven Porentypen jedoch kann das Verständnis und die Vorhersage der Permeabilität für einen gegeben Porositätswert stark verbessert werden (e.g., Melim et al., 2001; Zhang et al., 2017). Dazu wird in dieser Arbeit eine auf der digitalen Bildanalyse (DIA) beruhende Methode vorgestellt, mit der schrittweise die Effektivität von Poren aus den analysierten mittelmiozänen lakustrinen Karbonaten des Nördlinger Ries Kratersees (Süddeutschland) berechnet werden kann. Mithilfe des Porenformfaktors (sensu Anselmetti et al., 1998), der als Parameter zur Quantifizierung der Interkonnektivität zwischen Poren dient, wird der potentiellen Beitrag an Permeabilität jedes Porentyps zur Gesamtpermeabilität bestimmt. Somit können die effektivsten Porentypen innerhalb der analysierten Karbonate identifiziert werden. Desweiteren wird die digitale Bildanalyse dazu benutzt, zementierte Porenräume zu extrahieren, um den Einfluss der Zementation auf die Porenraumeigenschaften zu quantifizieren. Durch eine unabhängige Methode (Fluid-Flow-Simulation), deren Ergebnisse wiederum mit der digitalen Bildanalyse ausgewertet werden, können die vorherigen Erkentnisse bestätigt werden: Interpeloidale Poren und Lösungsporen sind die beiden effektivsten Porentypen im Porenraum der Riesseekarbonate. Die Extraktion des miteinander verbundenen (d.h. effektiven) Porennetzwerkes führt schließlich zu einer erheblich verbesserten Korrelation zwischen Porosität und Permeabilität in den analysierten Karbonaten. Die in dieser Arbeit beschriebene Methode bietet ein quantitatives petrographisches Werkzeug, mit dessen Hilfe die effektive Porosität eines Porenraumes extrahiert werden kann. Dies führt zu einem besseren Verständnis darüber, wie Porensysteme von Karbonaten Permeabilität erzeugen. Diese Dissertation zeigt auch, dass die Formkomplexität von Poren einer der wichtigsten Parameter ist, der die Interkonnektivität zwischen einzelnen Poren und somit die Entstehung von effektiver Porosität steuert. Außerdem erweist sich die digitale Bildanalyse als ausgezeichnetes Werkzeug um die Porosität und Permeabilität direkt an ihren gemeinsamen Ursprung zu knüpfen: die Gesteinstextur und die damit assoziierte Porenstruktur.
Earthquake swarms are characterized by large numbers of events occurring in a short period of time within a confined source volume and without significant mainshock aftershock pattern as opposed to tectonic sequences. Intraplate swarms in the absence of active volcanism usually occur in continental rifts as for example in the Eger Rift zone in North West Bohemia, Czech Republic. A common hypothesis links event triggering to pressurized fluids. However, the exact causal chain is often poorly understood since the underlying geotectonic processes are slow compared to tectonic sequences. The high event rate during active periods challenges standard seismological routines as these are often designed for single events and therefore costly in terms of human resources when working with phase picks or computationally costly when exploiting full waveforms.
This methodological thesis develops new approaches to analyze earthquake swarm seismicity as well as the underlying seismogenic volume. It focuses on the region of North West (NW) Bohemia, a well studied, well monitored earthquake swarm region.
In this work I develop and test an innovative approach to detect and locate earthquakes using deep convolutional neural networks. This technology offers great potential as it allows to efficiently process large amounts of data which becomes increasingly important given that seismological data storage grows at increasing pace. The proposed deep neural network trained on NW Bohemian earthquake swarm records is able to locate 1000 events in less than 1 second using full waveforms while approaching precision of double difference relocated catalogs. A further technological novelty is that the trained filters of the deep neural network’s first layer can be repurposed to function as a pattern matching event detector without additional training on noise datasets. For further methodological development and benchmarking, I present a new toolbox to generate realistic earthquake cluster catalogs as well as synthetic full waveforms of those clusters in an automated fashion. The input is parameterized using constraints on source volume geometry, nucleation and frequency-magnitude relations. It harnesses recorded noise to produce highly realistic synthetic data for benchmarking and development. This tool is used to study and assess detection performance in terms of magnitude of completeness Mc of a full waveform detector applied to synthetic data of a hydrofracturing experiment at the Wysin site, Poland.
Finally, I present and demonstrate a novel approach to overcome the masking effects of wave propagation between earthquake and stations and to determine source volume attenuation directly in the source volume where clustered earthquakes occur. The new event couple spectral ratio approach exploits high frequency spectral slopes of two events sharing the greater part of their rays. Synthetic tests based on the toolbox mentioned before show that this method is able to infer seismic wave attenuation within the source volume at high spatial resolution. Furthermore, it is independent from the distance towards a station as well as the complexity of the attenuation and velocity structure outside of the source volume of swarms. The application to recordings of the NW Bohemian earthquake swarm shows increased P phase attenuation within the source volume (Qp < 100) based on results at a station located close to the village Luby (LBC). The recordings of a station located in epicentral proximity, close to Nový Kostel (NKC), show a relatively high complexity indicating that waves arriving at that station experience more scattering than signals recorded at other stations. The high level of complexity destabilizes the inversion. Therefore, the Q estimate at NKC is not reliable and an independent proof of the high attenuation finding given the geometrical and frequency constraints is still to be done. However, a high attenuation in the source volume of NW Bohemian swarms has been postulated before in relation to an expected, highly damaged zone bearing CO 2 at high pressure.
The methods developed in the course of this thesis yield the potential to improve our understanding regarding the role of fluids and gases in intraplate event clustering.
Selenite pseudomorphs
(2019)
Fold and thrust belts are characteristic features of collisional orogen that grow laterally through time by deforming the upper crust in response to stresses caused by convergence. The deformation propagation in the upper crust is accommodated by shortening along major folds and thrusts. The formation of these structures is influenced by the mechanical strength of décollements, basement architecture, presence of preexisting structures and taper of the wedge. These factors control not only the sequence of deformation but also cause differences in the structural style.
The Himalayan fold and thrust belt exhibits significant differences in the structural style from east to west. The external zone of the Himalayan fold and thrust belt, also called the Subhimalaya, has been extensively studied to understand the temporal development and differences in the structural style in Bhutan, Nepal and India; however, the Subhimalaya in Pakistan remains poorly studied. The Kohat and Potwar fold and thrust belts (herein called Kohat and Potwar) represent the Subhimalaya in Pakistan. The Main Boundary Thrust (MBT) marks the northern boundary of both Kohat and Potwar, showing that these belts are genetically linked to foreland-vergent deformation within the Himalayan orogen, despite the pronounced contrast in structural style. This contrast becomes more pronounced toward south, where the active strike-slip Kalabagh Fault Zone links with the Kohat and Potwar range fronts, known as the Surghar Range and the Salt Range, respectively. The Surghar and Salt Ranges developed above the Surghar Thrust (SGT) and Main Frontal Thrust (MFT). In order to understand the structural style and spatiotemporal development of the major structures in Kohat and Potwar, I have used structural modeling and low temperature thermochronolgy methods in this study. The structural modeling is based on construction of balanced cross-sections by integrating surface geology, seismic reflection profiles and well data. In order to constrain the timing and magnitude of exhumation, I used apatite (U-Th-Sm)/He (AHe) and apatite fission track (AFT) dating. The results obtained from both methods are combined to document the Paleozoic to Recent history of Kohat and Potwar.
The results of this research suggest two major events in the deformation history. The first major deformation event is related to Late Paleozoic rifting associated with the development of the Neo-Tethys Ocean. The second major deformation event is related to the Late Miocene to Pliocene development of the Himalayan fold and thrust belt in the Kohat and Potwar. The Late Paleozoic rifting is deciphered by inverse thermal modelling of detrital AFT and AHe ages from the Salt Range. The process of rifting in this area created normal faulting that resulted in the exhumation/erosion of Early to Middle Paleozoic strata, forming a major unconformity between Cambrian and Permian strata that is exposed today in the Salt Range. The normal faults formed in Late Paleozoic time played an important role in localizing the Miocene-Pliocene deformation in this area. The combination of structural reconstructions and thermochronologic data suggest that deformation initiated at 15±2 Ma on the SGT ramp in the southern part of Kohat. The early movement on the SGT accreted the foreland into the Kohat deforming wedge, forming the range front. The development of the MBT at 12±2 Ma formed the northern boundary of Kohat and Potwar. Deformation propagated south of the MBT in the Kohat on double décollements and in the Potwar on a single basal décollement. The double décollement in the Kohat adopted an active roof-thrust deformation style that resulted in the disharmonic structural style in the upper and lower parts of the stratigraphic section. Incremental shortening resulted in the development of duplexes in the subsurface between two décollements and imbrication above the roof thrust. Tectonic thickening caused by duplexes resulted in cooling and exhumation above the roof thrust by removal of a thick sequence of molasse strata. The structural modelling shows that the ramps on which duplexes formed in Kohat continue as tip lines of fault propagation folds in the Potwar. The absence of a double décollement in the Potwar resulted in the preservation of a thick sequence of molasse strata there. The temporal data suggest that deformation propagated in-sequence from ~ 8 to 3 Ma in the northern part of Kohat and Potwar; however, internal deformation in the Kohat was more intense, probably required for maintaining a critical taper after a significant load was removed above the upper décollement. In the southern part of Potwar, a steeper basement slope (β≥3°) and the presence of salt at the base of the stratigraphic section allowed for the complete preservation of the stratigraphic wedge, showcased by very little internal deformation. Activation of the MFT at ~4 Ma allowed the Salt Range to become the range front of the Potwar. The removal of a large amount of molasse strata above the MFT ramp enhanced the role of salt in shaping the structural style of the Salt Range and Kalabagh Fault Zone. Salt accumulation and migration resulted in the formation of normal faults in both areas. Salt migration in the Kalabagh fault zone has triggered out-of-sequence movement on ramps in the Kohat.
The amount of shortening calculated between the MBT and the SGT in Kohat is 75±5 km and between the MBT and the MFT in Potwar is 65±5 km. A comparable amount of shortening is accommodated in the Kohat and Potwar despite their different widths: 70 km Kohat and 150 km Potwar. In summary, this research suggests that deformation switched between different structures during the last ~15 Ma through different modes of fault propagation, resulting in different structural styles and the out-of-sequence development of Kohat and Potwar.
The foreland of the Andes in South America is characterised by distinct along strike changes in surface deformational styles. These styles are classified into two end-members, the thin-skinned and the thick-skinned style. The superficial expression of thin-skinned deformation is a succession of narrowly spaced hills and valleys, that form laterally continuous ranges on the foreland facing side of the orogen. Each of the hills is defined by a reverse fault that roots in a basal décollement surface within the sedimentary cover, and acted as thrusting ramp to stack the sedimentary pile. Thick-skinned deformation is morphologically characterised by spatially disparate, basement-cored mountain ranges. These mountain ranges are uplifted along reactivated high-angle crustal-scale discontinuities, such as suture zones between different tectonic terranes.
Amongst proposed causes for the observed variation are variations in the dip angle of the Nazca plate, variation in sediment thickness, lithospheric thickening, volcanism or compositional differences. The proposed mechanisms are predominantly based on geological observations or numerical thermomechanical modelling, but there has been no attempt to understand the mechanisms from a point of data-integrative 3D modelling. The aim of this dissertation is therefore to understand how lithospheric structure controls the deformational behaviour. The integration of independent data into a consistent model of the lithosphere allows to obtain additional evidence that helps to understand the causes for the different deformational styles. Northern Argentina encompasses the transition from the thin-skinned fold-and-thrust belt in Bolivia, to the thick-skinned Sierras Pampeanas province, which makes this area a well suited location for such a study. The general workflow followed in this study first involves data-constrained structural- and density-modelling in order to obtain a model of the study area. This model was then used to predict the steady-state thermal field, which was then used to assess the present-day rheological state in northern Argentina.
The structural configuration of the lithosphere in northern Argentina was determined by means of data-integrative, 3D density modelling verified by Bouguer gravity. The model delineates the first-order density contrasts in the lithosphere in the uppermost 200 km, and discriminates bodies for the sediments, the crystalline crust, the lithospheric mantle and the subducting Nazca plate. To obtain the intra-crustal density structure, an automated inversion approach was developed and applied to a starting structural model that assumed a homogeneously dense crust. The resulting final structural model indicates that the crustal structure can be represented by an upper crust with a density of 2800 kg/m³, and a lower crust of 3100 kg/m³. The Transbrazilian Lineament, which separates the Pampia terrane from the Río de la Plata craton, is expressed as a zone of low average crustal densities.
In an excursion, we demonstrate in another study, that the gravity inversion method developed to obtain intra-crustal density structures, is also applicable to obtain density variations in the uppermost lithospheric mantle. Densities in such sub-crustal depths are difficult to constrain from seismic tomographic models due to smearing of crustal velocities. With the application to the uppermost lithospheric mantle in the north Atlantic, we demonstrate in Tan et al. (2018) that lateral density trends of at least 125\,km width are robustly recovered by the inversion method, thereby providing an important tool for the delineation of subcrustal density trends.
Due to the genetic link between subduction, orogenesis and retroarc foreland basins the question rises whether the steady-state assumption is valid in such a dynamic setting. To answer this question, I analysed (i) the impact of subduction on the conductive thermal field of the overlying continental plate, (ii) the differences between the transient and steady-state thermal fields of a geodynamic coupled model. Both studies indicate that the assumption of a thermal steady-state is applicable in most parts of the study area. Within the orogenic wedge, where the assumption cannot be applied, I estimated the transient thermal field based on the results of the conducted analyses.
Accordingly, the structural model that had been obtained in the first step, could be used to obtain a 3D conductive steady-state thermal field. The rheological assessment based on this thermal field indicates that the lithosphere of the thin-skinned Subandean ranges is characterised by a relatively strong crust and a weak mantle. Contrarily, the adjacent foreland basin consists of a fully coupled, very strong lithosphere. Thus, shortening in northern Argentina can only be accommodated within the weak lithosphere of the orogen and the Subandean ranges. The analysis suggests that the décollements of the fold-and-thrust belt are the shallow continuation of shear zones that reside in the ductile sections of the orogenic crust. Furthermore, the localisation of the faults that provide strain transfer between the deeper ductile crust and the shallower décollement is strongly influenced by crustal weak zones such as foliation. In contrast to the northern foreland, the lithosphere of the thick-skinned Sierras Pampeanas is fully coupled and characterised by a strong crust and mantle. The high overall strength prevents the generation of crustal-scale faults by tectonic stresses. Even inherited crustal-scale discontinuities, such as sutures, cannot sufficiently reduce the strength of the lithosphere in order to be reactivated. Therefore, magmatism that had been identified to be a precursor of basement uplift in the Sierras Pampeanas, is the key factor that leads to the broken foreland of this province. Due to thermal weakening, and potentially lubrication of the inherited discontinuities, the lithosphere is locally weakened such that tectonic stresses can uplift the basement blocks. This hypothesis explains both the spatially disparate character of the broken foreland, as well as the observed temporal delay between volcanism and basement block uplift.
This dissertation provides for the first time a data-driven 3D model that is consistent with geophysical data and geological observations, and that is able to causally link the thermo-rheological structure of the lithosphere to the observed variation of surface deformation styles in the retroarc foreland of northern Argentina.
During lower sea levels in glacial periods, deep permafrost formed on large continental shelf areas of the Arctic Ocean. Subsequent sea level rise and coastal erosion created subsea permafrost, which generally degrades after inundation under the influence of a complex suite of marine, near-shore processes. Global warming is especially pronounced in the Arctic, and will increase the transition to and the degradation of subsea permafrost, with implications for atmospheric climate forcing, offshore infrastructure, and aquatic ecosystems.
This thesis combines new geophysical, borehole observational and modelling approaches to enhance our understanding of subsea permafrost dynamics. Three specific areas for advancement were identified: (I) sparsity of observational data, (II) lacking implementation of salt infiltration mechanisms in models, and (III) poor understanding of the regional differences in key driving parameters. This study tested the combination of spectral ratios of the ambient vibration seismic wavefield, together with estimated shear wave velocity from seismic interferometry analysis, for estimating the thickness of the unfrozen sediment overlying the ice-bonded permafrost offshore. Mesoscale numerical calculations (10^1 to 10^2 m, thousands of years) were employed to develop and solve the coupled heat diffusion and salt transport equations including phase change effects. Model soil parameters were constrained by borehole data, and the impact of a variety of influences during the transgression was tested in modelling studies. In addition, two inversion schemes (particle swarm optimization and a least-square method) were used to reconstruct temperature histories for the past 200-300 years in the Laptev Sea region in Siberia from two permafrost borehole temperature records. These data were evaluated against larger scale reconstructions from the region.
It was found (I) that peaks in spectral ratios modelled for three-layer, one-dimensional systems corresponded with thaw depths. Around Muostakh Island in the central Laptev Sea seismic receivers were deployed on the seabed. Derived depths of the ice-bonded permafrost table were between 3.7-20.7 m ± 15 %, increasing with distance from the coast. (II) Temperatures modelled during the transition to subsea permafrost resembled isothermal conditions after about 2000 years of inundation at Cape Mamontov Klyk, consistent with observations from offshore boreholes. Stratigraphic scenarios showed that salt distribution and infiltration had a large impact on the ice saturation in the sediments. Three key factors were identified that, when changed, shifted the modelled permafrost thaw depth most strongly: bottom water temperatures, shoreline retreat rate and initial temperature before inundation. Salt transport based on diffusion and contribution from arbitrary density-driven mechanisms only accounted for about 50 % of observed thaw depths at offshore sites hundreds to thousands of years after inundation. This bias was found consistently at all three sites in the Laptev Sea region. (III) In the temperature reconstructions, distinct differences in the local temperature histories between the western Laptev Sea and the Lena Delta sites were recognized, such as a transition to warmer temperatures a century later in the western Laptev Sea as well as a peak in warming three decades later. The local permafrost surface temperature history at Sardakh Island in the Lena Delta was reminiscent of the circum-Arctic regional average trends. However, Mamontov Klyk in the western Laptev Sea was consistent to Arctic trends only in the most recent decade and was more similar to northern hemispheric mean trends. Both sites were consistent with a rapid synoptic recent warming.
In conclusion, the consistency between modelled response, expected permafrost distribution, and observational data suggests that the passive seismic method is promising for the determination of the thickness of unfrozen sediment on the continental Arctic shelf. The quantified gap between currently modelled and observed thaw depths means that the impact of degradation on climate forcing, ecosystems, and infrastructure is larger than current models predict. This discrepancy suggests the importance of further mechanisms of salt penetration and thaw that have not been considered – either pre-inundation or post-inundation, or both. In addition, any meaningful modelling of subsea permafrost would have to constrain the identified key factors and their regional differences well. The shallow permafrost boreholes provide missing well-resolved short-scale temperature information in the coastal permafrost tundra of the Arctic. As local differences from circum-Arctic reconstructions, such as later warming and higher warming magnitude, were shown to exist in this region, these results provide a basis for local surface temperature record parameterization of climate and, in particular, permafrost models. The results of this work bring us one step further to understanding the full picture of the transition from terrestrial to subsea permafrost.
Interactions and feedbacks between tectonics, climate, and upper plate architecture control basin geometry, relief, and depositional systems. The Andes is part of a longlived continental margin characterized by multiple tectonic cycles which have strongly modified the Andean upper plate architecture. In the Andean retroarc, spatiotemporal variations in the structure of the upper plate and tectonic regimes have resulted in marked along-strike variations in basin geometry, stratigraphy, deformational style, and mountain belt morphology. These along-strike variations include high-elevation plateaus (Altiplano and Puna) associated with a thin-skin fold-and-thrust-belt and thick-skin deformation in broken foreland basins such as the Santa Barbara system and the Sierras Pampeanas. At the confluence of the Puna Plateau, the Santa Barbara system and the Sierras Pampeanas, major along-strike changes in upper plate architecture, mountain belt morphology, basement exhumation, and deformation style can be recognized. I have used a source to sink approach to unravel the spatiotemporal tectonic evolution of the Andean retroarc between 26 and 28°S. I obtained a large low-temperature thermochronology data set from basement units which includes apatite fission track, apatite U-Th-Sm/He, and zircon U-Th/He (ZHe) cooling ages. Stratigraphic descriptions of Miocene units were temporally constrained by U-Pb LA-ICP-MS zircon ages from interbedded pyroclastic material.
Modeled ZHe ages suggest that the basement of the study area was exhumed during the Famatinian orogeny (550-450 Ma), followed by a period of relative tectonic quiescence during the Paleozoic and the Triassic. The basement experienced horst exhumation during the Cretaceous development of the Salta rift. After initial exhumation, deposition of thick Cretaceous syn-rift strata caused reheating of several basement blocks within the Santa Barbara system. During the Eocene-Oligocene, the Andean compressional setting was responsible for the exhumation of several disconnected basement blocks. These exhumed blocks were separated by areas of low relief, in which humid climate and low erosion rates facilitated the development of etchplains on the crystalline basement. The exhumed basement blocks formed an Eocene to Oligocene broken foreland basin in the back-bulge depozone of the Andean foreland. During the Early Miocene, foreland basin strata filled up the preexisting Paleogene topography. The basement blocks in lower relief positions were reheated; associated geothermal gradients were higher than 25°C/km. Miocene volcanism was responsible for lateral variations on the amount of reheating along the Campo-Arenal basin. Around 12 Ma, a new deformational phase modified the drainage network and fragmented the lacustrine system. As deformation and rock uplift continued, the easily eroded sedimentary cover was efficiently removed and reworked by an ephemeral fluvial system, preventing the development of significant relief. After ~6 Ma, the low erodibility of the basement blocks which began to be exposed caused relief increase, leading to the development of stable fluvial systems. Progressive relief development modified atmospheric circulation, creating a rainfall gradient. After 3 Ma, orographic rainfall and high relief lead to the development of proximal fluvial-gravitational depositional systems in the surrounding basins.
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is likely the most well-known system of ocean currents on Earth, redistributing heat, nutrients and carbon over a large part of the Earth’s surface and affecting global climate as a result. Due to enhanced freshwater fluxes into the subpolar North Atlantic as a response to global warming, the AMOC is expected, and may have already started, to weaken and these changes will likely have global impacts. It is therefore of considerable relevance to improve our understanding of past and future AMOC changes. My thesis tries to answer some of the open questions in this field by giving strong evidence that the AMOC has already weakened over the last century, by narrowing future projections of this slowdown and
by studying the impacts on global surface warming.
While there have been various studies trying to reconstruct the strength of the overturning circulation in the past, often based on model simulations in combination with observations (Jackson et al., 2016, Kanzow et al., 2010) or proxies (Frajka-Williams, 2015, Latif et al., 2006), the results so far, due to lack of direct measurements, have been inconclusive. In the first paper I build on previous work that links the anomalously low sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the North Atlantic with the reduced meridional heat transport due to a weaker AMOC. Using the output of a high-resolution global climate model, I derive a characteristic spatial and seasonal SST fingerprint of an AMOC slowdown and an improved SST-based AMOC index. The same fingerprint is seen in
the observational SSTs since the late 19th Century, giving strong evidence that since then the AMOC has slowed down. In addition, the reconstruction of the historical overturning strength with the new AMOC index agrees well with and extends the results of earlier studies as well as the direct measurements from the RAPID project and shows a strong decline of the AMOC by about 15% (3±1 Sv) since the mid-20th Century (Caesar et al., 2018).
The reconstruction of the historical overturning strength with the AMOC index enables us to weight future AMOC projections based on their skill in modeling the historical AMOC as described in the second paper of this thesis (Olson et al., 2018). Using Bayesian model averaging we considerably narrow the projections of the CMIP5 ensemble to a decrease of -4.0 Sv and -6.8 Sv between the years 1960-1999 and 2060-2099 for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios, respectively. These values fit to, yet are at the lower end of, previously published estimates.
In the third paper I examine how the AMOC slowdown affects the global mean surface temperature (GMST) with a focus on how it will change the ocean heat uptake (OHC). Accounting for the effect of changes in the radiative forcing on the GMST, I test how AMOC variations correlate with the residual part of surface temperature changes in the past. I find that the correlation is positive which fits the understanding that the deep-water formation that is important in driving the AMOC cools the deep ocean and therefore warms the surface (Caesar et al., 2019). The future weakening of the overturning circulation could therefore delay global surface warming.
Due to nonlinear behavior and scale specific changes it can be difficult to study the dominant processes and modes that drive climate variability. In the fourth paper we develop and test a new technique based on the wavelet multiscale correlation (WMC) similarity measure to study climate variability on different temporal and spatial scales (Agarwal et al., 2018). In a fifth contribution to my thesis this method is applied to the observed sea surface temperatures. The results reconfirm well-known relations between SST anomalies such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) on inter-annual and decadal timescales, respectively. They
furthermore give new insights into the characteristics and origins of long-range teleconnections, for example, that the teleconnection between ENSO and Indian Ocean dipole exist mainly between the northern part of the ENSO tongue and the equatorial Indian Ocean, and provides therefore valuable knowledge about the regions that are necessary to include when modeling regional climate variability at a certain scale (Agarwal et al., 2019).
In summary, my PhD thesis investigates past and future AMOC variability and its effects on global mean surface temperature by utilizing a combination of observational sea surface data and the output of historical and future climate model simulations from both the high-resolution CM2.6 model as well as the CMIP5 ensemble. It further includes the development and validation of a new method to study climate variability, that, applied to the observed sea surface temperatures, gives new insight about teleconnections in the Earth System. My findings provide evidence that the AMOC has already slowed down, will continue to do so in the future, and will impact the global mean temperature. Further impacts of an AMOC slowdown may include increased sea-level rise at the U.S. east coast (Ezer, 2015), heat extremes in Europe (Duchez et al., 2016) and increased storm activity in the North Atlantic region (Jackson et al., 2015), all of which have significant socio-economic implications.
Magmatic-hydrothermal fluids are responsible for numerous mineralization types, including porphyry copper and granite related tin-tungsten (Sn-W) deposits. Ore formation is dependent on various factors, including, the pressure and temperature regime of the intrusions, the chemical composition of the magma and hydrothermal fluids, and fluid rock interaction during the ascent. Fluid inclusions have potential to provide direct information on the temperature, salinity, pressure and chemical composition of fluids responsible for ore formation. Numerical modeling allows the parametrization of pluton features that cannot be analyzed directly via geological observations.
Microthermometry of fluid inclusions from the Zinnwald Sn-W deposit, Erzgebirge, Germany / Czech Republic, provide evidence that the greisen mineralization is associated with a low salinity (2-10 wt.% NaCl eq.) fluid with homogenization temperatures between 350°C and 400°C. Quartzes from numerous veins are host to inclusions with the same temperatures and salinities, whereas cassiterite- and wolframite-hosted assemblages with slightly lower temperatures (around 350°C) and higher salinities (ca. 15 wt. NaCl eq.). Further, rare quartz samples contained boiling assemblages consisting of coexisting brine and vapor phases. The formation of ore minerals within the greisen is driven by invasive fluid-rock interaction, resulting in the loss of complexing agents (Cl-) leading to precipitation of cassiterite. The fluid inclusion record in the veins suggests boiling as the main reason for cassiterite and wolframite mineralization. Ore and coexisting gangue minerals hosted different types of fluid inclusions where the beginning boiling processes are solely preserved by the ore minerals emphasizing the importance of microthermometry in ore minerals. Further, the study indicates that boiling as a precipitation mechanism can only occur in mineralization related to shallow intrusions whereas deeper plutons prevent the fluid from boiling and can therefore form tungsten mineralization in the distal regions.
The tin mineralization in the Hämmerlein deposit, Erzgebirge, Germany, occurs within a skarn horizon and the underlying schist. Cassiterite within the skarn contains highly saline (30-50 wt% NaCl eq.) fluid inclusions, with homogenization temperatures up to 500°C, whereas cassiterites from the schist and additional greisen samples contain inclusions of lower salinity (~5 wt% NaCl eq.) and temperature (between 350 and 400°C). Inclusions in the gangue minerals (quartz, fluorite) preserve homogenization temperatures below 350°C and sphalerite showed the lowest homogenization temperatures (ca. 200°C) whereby all minerals (cassiterite from schist and greisen, gangue minerals and sphalerite) show similar salinity ranges (2-5 wt% NaCl eq.). Similar trace element contents and linear trends in the chemistry of the inclusions suggest a common source fluid. The inclusion record in the Hämmerlein deposit documents an early exsolution of hot brines from the underlying granite which is responsible for the mineralization hosted by the skarn. Cassiterites in schist and greisen are mainly forming due to fluid-rock interaction at lower temperatures. The low temperature inclusions documented in the sphalerite mineralization as well as their generally low trace element composition in comparison to the other minerals suggests that their formation was induced by mixing with meteoric fluids.
Numerical simulations of magma chambers and overlying copper distribution document the importance of incremental growth by sills. We analyzed the cooling behavior at variable injection intervals as well as sill thicknesses. The models suggest that magma accumulation requires volumetric injection rates of at least 4 x 10-4 km³/y. These injection rates are further needed to form a stable magmatic-hydrothermal fluid plume above the magma chamber to ensure a constant copper precipitation and enrichment within a confined location in order to form high-grade ore shells within a narrow geological timeframe between 50 and 100 kyrs as suggested for porphyry copper deposits. The highest copper enrichment can be found in regions with steep temperature gradients, typical of regions where the magmatic-hydrothermal fluid meets the cooler ambient fluids.