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Data limitations can lead to unrealistic fits of predictive species distribution models (SDMs) and spurious extrapolation to novel environments. Here, we want to draw attention to novel combinations of environmental predictors that are within the sampled range of individual predictors but are nevertheless outside the sample space. These tend to be overlooked when visualizing model behaviour. They may be a cause of differing model transferability and environmental change predictions between methods, a problem described in some studies but generally not well understood. We here use a simple simulated data example to illustrate the problem and provide new and complementary visualization techniques to explore model behaviour and predictions to novel environments. We then apply these in a more complex real-world example. Our results underscore the necessity of scrutinizing model fits, ecological theory and environmental novelty.
Reply to Peng et al.: Archaeological contexts should not be ignored for early chicken domestication
(2015)
Xenikoudakis et al. report a partial mitochondrial genome of the extinct giant beaver Castoroides and estimate the origin of aquatic behavior in beavers to approximately 20 million years. This time estimate coincides with the extinction of terrestrial beavers and raises the question whether the two events had a common cause.
The origin of ambling horses
(2016)
Horseback riding is the most fundamental use of domestic horses and has had a huge influence on the development of human societies for millennia. Over time, riding techniques and the style of riding improved. Therefore, horses with the ability to perform comfortable gaits (e.g. ambling or pacing), so-called ‘gaited’ horses, have been highly valued by humans, especially for long distance travel. Recently, the causative mutation for gaitedness in horses has been linked to a substitution causing a premature stop codon in the DMRT3 gene (DMRT3_Ser301STOP) [1]. In mice, Dmrt3 is expressed in spinal cord interneurons and plays an important role in the development of limb movement coordination [1]. Genotyping the position in 4396 modern horses from 141 breeds revealed that nowadays the mutated allele is distributed worldwide with an especially high frequency in gaited horses and breeds used for harness racing [2]. Here, we examine historic horse remains for the DMRT3 SNP, tracking the origin of gaitedness to Medieval England between 850 and 900 AD. The presence of the corresponding allele in Icelandic horses (9th–11th century) strongly suggests that ambling horses were brought from the British Isles to Iceland by Norse people. Considering the high frequency of the ambling allele in early Icelandic horses, we believe that Norse settlers selected for this comfortable mode of horse riding soon after arrival. The absence of the allele in samples from continental Europe (including Scandinavia) at this time implies that ambling horses may have spread from Iceland and maybe also the British Isles across the continent at a later date.
As a potentially toxic agent on nervous system and bone, the safety of aluminium exposure from adjuvants in vaccines and subcutaneous immune therapy (SCIT) products has to be continuously reevaluated, especially regarding concomitant administrations. For this purpose, knowledge on absorption and disposition of aluminium in plasma and tissues is essential. Pharmacokinetic data after vaccination in humans, however, are not available, and for methodological and ethical reasons difficult to obtain. To overcome these limitations, we discuss the possibility of an in vitro-in silico approach combining a toxicokinetic model for aluminium disposition with biorelevant kinetic absorption parameters from adjuvants. We critically review available kinetic aluminium-26 data for model building and, on the basis of a reparameterized toxicokinetic model (Nolte et al., 2001), we identify main modelling gaps. The potential of in vitro dissolution experiments for the prediction of intramuscular absorption kinetics of aluminium after vaccination is explored. It becomes apparent that there is need for detailed in vitro dissolution and in vivo absorption data to establish an in vitro-in vivo correlation (IVIVC) for aluminium adjuvants. We conclude that a combination of new experimental data and further refinement of the Nolte model has the potential to fill a gap in aluminium risk assessment. (C) 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.