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We establish elements of a new approach to ellipticity and parametrices within operator algebras on manifolds with higher singularities, only based on some general axiomatic requirements on parameter-dependent operators in suitable scales of spaes. The idea is to model an iterative process with new generations of parameter-dependent operator theories, together with new scales of spaces that satisfy analogous requirements as the original ones, now on a corresponding higher level. The "full" calculus involves two separate theories, one near the tip of the corner and another one at the conical exit to infinity. However, concerning the conical exit to infinity, we establish here a new concrete calculus of edge-degenerate operators which can be iterated to higher singularities.
Data assimilation has been an active area of research in recent years, owing to its wide utility. At the core of data assimilation are filtering, prediction, and smoothing procedures. Filtering entails incorporation of measurements' information into the model to gain more insight into a given state governed by a noisy state space model. Most natural laws are governed by time-continuous nonlinear models. For the most part, the knowledge available about a model is incomplete; and hence uncertainties are approximated by means of probabilities. Time-continuous filtering, therefore, holds promise for wider usefulness, for it offers a means of combining noisy measurements with imperfect model to provide more insight on a given state.
The solution to time-continuous nonlinear Gaussian filtering problem is provided for by the Kushner-Stratonovich equation. Unfortunately, the Kushner-Stratonovich equation lacks a closed-form solution. Moreover, the numerical approximations based on Taylor expansion above third order are fraught with computational complications. For this reason, numerical methods based on Monte Carlo methods have been resorted to. Chief among these methods are sequential Monte-Carlo methods (or particle filters), for they allow for online assimilation of data. Particle filters are not without challenges: they suffer from particle degeneracy, sample impoverishment, and computational costs arising from resampling.
The goal of this thesis is to:— i) Review the derivation of Kushner-Stratonovich equation from first principles and its extant numerical approximation methods, ii) Study the feedback particle filters as a way of avoiding resampling in particle filters, iii) Study joint state and parameter estimation in time-continuous settings, iv) Apply the notions studied to linear hyperbolic stochastic differential equations.
The interconnection between Itô integrals and stochastic partial differential equations and those of Stratonovich is introduced in anticipation of feedback particle filters. With these ideas and motivated by the variants of ensemble Kalman-Bucy filters founded on the structure of the innovation process, a feedback particle filter with randomly perturbed innovation is proposed. Moreover, feedback particle filters based on coupling of prediction and analysis measures are proposed. They register a better performance than the bootstrap particle filter at lower ensemble sizes.
We study joint state and parameter estimation, both by means of extended state spaces and by use of dual filters. Feedback particle filters seem to perform well in both cases. Finally, we apply joint state and parameter estimation in the advection and wave equation, whose velocity is spatially varying. Two methods are employed: Metropolis Hastings with filter likelihood and a dual filter comprising of Kalman-Bucy filter and ensemble Kalman-Bucy filter. The former performs better than the latter.
Als Grundlage vieler statistischer Verfahren wird der Prozess der Entstehung von Daten modelliert, um dann weitere Schätz- und Testverfahren anzuwenden. Diese Arbeit befasst sich mit der Frage, wie diese Spezifikation für parametrische Modelle selbst getestet werden kann. In Erweiterung bestehender Verfahren werden Tests mit festem Kern eingeführt und ihre asymptotischen Eigenschaften werden analysiert. Es wird gezeigt, dass die Bestimmung der kritischen Werte mit mehreren Stichprobenwiederholungsverfahren möglich ist. Von diesen ist eine neue Monte-Carlo-Approximation besonders wichtig, da sie die Komplexität der Berechnung deutlich verringern kann. Ein bedingter Kleinste-Quadrate-Schätzer für nichtlineare parametrische Modelle wird definiert und seine wesentlichen asymptotischen Eigenschaften werden hergeleitet. Sämtliche Versionen der Tests und alle neuen Konzepte wurden in Simulationsstudien untersucht, deren wichtigste Resultate präsentiert werden. Die praktische Anwendbarkeit der Testverfahren wird an einem Datensatz zur Produktwahl dargelegt, der mit multinomialen Logit-Modellen analysiert werden soll.
In this thesis, we give two constructions for Riemannian metrics on Seiberg-Witten moduli spaces. Both these constructions are naturally induced from the L2-metric on the configuration space. The construction of the so called quotient L2-metric is very similar to the one construction of an L2-metric on Yang-Mills moduli spaces as given by Groisser and Parker. To construct a Riemannian metric on the total space of the Seiberg-Witten bundle in a similar way, we define the reduced gauge group as a subgroup of the gauge group. We show, that the quotient of the premoduli space by the reduced gauge group is isomorphic as a U(1)-bundle to the quotient of the premoduli space by the based gauge group. The total space of this new representation of the Seiberg-Witten bundle carries a natural quotient L2-metric, and the bundle projection is a Riemannian submersion with respect to these metrics. We compute explicit formulae for the sectional curvature of the moduli space in terms of Green operators of the elliptic complex associated with a monopole. Further, we construct a Riemannian metric on the cobordism between moduli spaces for different perturbations. The second construction of a Riemannian metric on the moduli space uses a canonical global gauge fixing, which represents the total space of the Seiberg-Witten bundle as a finite dimensional submanifold of the configuration space. We consider the Seiberg-Witten moduli space on a simply connected Käuhler surface. We show that the moduli space (when nonempty) is a complex projective space, if the perturbation does not admit reducible monpoles, and that the moduli space consists of a single point otherwise. The Seiberg-Witten bundle can then be identified with the Hopf fibration. On the complex projective plane with a special Spin-C structure, our Riemannian metrics on the moduli space are Fubini-Study metrics. Correspondingly, the metrics on the total space of the Seiberg-Witten bundle are Berger metrics. We show that the diameter of the moduli space shrinks to 0 when the perturbation approaches the wall of reducible perturbations. Finally we show, that the quotient L2-metric on the Seiberg-Witten moduli space on a Kähler surface is a Kähler metric.
Change points in time series are perceived as heterogeneities in the statistical or dynamical characteristics of the observations. Unraveling such transitions yields essential information for the understanding of the observed system’s intrinsic evolution and potential external influences. A precise detection of multiple changes is therefore of great importance for various research disciplines, such as environmental sciences, bioinformatics and economics. The primary purpose of the detection approach introduced in this thesis is the investigation of transitions underlying direct or indirect climate observations. In order to develop a diagnostic approach capable to capture such a variety of natural processes, the generic statistical features in terms of central tendency and dispersion are employed in the light of Bayesian inversion. In contrast to established Bayesian approaches to multiple changes, the generic approach proposed in this thesis is not formulated in the framework of specialized partition models of high dimensionality requiring prior specification, but as a robust kernel-based approach of low dimensionality employing least informative prior distributions.
First of all, a local Bayesian inversion approach is developed to robustly infer on the location and the generic patterns of a single transition. The analysis of synthetic time series comprising changes of different observational evidence, data loss and outliers validates the performance, consistency and sensitivity of the inference algorithm. To systematically investigate time series for multiple changes, the Bayesian inversion is extended to a kernel-based inference approach. By introducing basic kernel measures, the weighted kernel inference results are composed into a proxy probability to a posterior distribution of multiple transitions. The detection approach is applied to environmental time series from the Nile river in Aswan and the weather station Tuscaloosa, Alabama comprising documented changes. The method’s performance confirms the approach as a powerful diagnostic tool to decipher multiple changes underlying direct climate observations.
Finally, the kernel-based Bayesian inference approach is used to investigate a set of complex terrigenous dust records interpreted as climate indicators of the African region of the Plio-Pleistocene period. A detailed inference unravels multiple transitions underlying the indirect climate observations, that are interpreted as conjoint changes. The identified conjoint changes coincide with established global climate events. In particular, the two-step transition associated to the establishment of the modern Walker-Circulation contributes to the current discussion about the influence of paleoclimate changes on the environmental conditions in tropical and subtropical Africa at around two million years ago.
Microsaccades
(2015)
The first thing we do upon waking is open our eyes. Rotating them in our eye sockets, we scan our surroundings and collect the information into a picture in our head. Eye movements can be split into saccades and fixational eye movements, which occur when we attempt to fixate our gaze. The latter consists of microsaccades, drift and tremor. Before we even lift our eye lids, eye movements – such as saccades and microsaccades that let the eyes jump from one to another position – have partially been prepared in the brain stem. Saccades and microsaccades are often assumed to be generated by the same mechanisms. But how saccades and microsaccades can be classified according to shape has not yet been reported in a statistical manner. Research has put more effort into the investigations of microsaccades’ properties and generation only since the last decade. Consequently, we are only beginning to understand the dynamic processes governing microsaccadic eye movements. Within this thesis, the dynamics governing the generation of microsaccades is assessed and the development of a model for the underlying processes. Eye movement trajectories from different experiments are used, recorded with a video-based eye tracking technique, and a novel method is proposed for the scale-invariant detection of saccades (events of large amplitude) and microsaccades (events of small amplitude). Using a time-frequency approach, the method is examined with different experiments and validated against simulated data. A shape model is suggested that allows for a simple estimation of saccade- and microsaccade related properties. For sequences of microsaccades, in this thesis a time-dynamic Markov model is proposed, with a memory horizon that changes over time and which can best describe sequences of microsaccades.
This thesis investigates the gradient flow of Dirac-harmonic maps. Dirac-harmonic maps are critical points of an energy functional that is motivated from supersymmetric field theories. The critical points of this energy functional couple the equation for harmonic maps with spinor fields. At present, many analytical properties of Dirac-harmonic maps are known, but a general existence result is still missing. In this thesis the existence question is studied using the evolution equations for a regularized version of Dirac-harmonic maps. Since the energy functional for Dirac-harmonic maps is unbounded from below the method of the gradient flow cannot be applied directly. Thus, we first of all consider a regularization prescription for Dirac-harmonic maps and then study the gradient flow. Chapter 1 gives some background material on harmonic maps/harmonic spinors and summarizes the current known results about Dirac-harmonic maps. Chapter 2 introduces the notion of Dirac-harmonic maps in detail and presents a regularization prescription for Dirac-harmonic maps. In Chapter 3 the evolution equations for regularized Dirac-harmonic maps are introduced. In addition, the evolution of certain energies is discussed. Moreover, the existence of a short-time solution to the evolution equations is established. Chapter 4 analyzes the evolution equations in the case that the domain manifold is a closed curve. Here, the existence of a smooth long-time solution is proven. Moreover, for the regularization being large enough, it is shown that the evolution equations converge to a regularized Dirac-harmonic map. Finally, it is discussed in which sense the regularization can be removed. In Chapter 5 the evolution equations are studied when the domain manifold is a closed Riemmannian spin surface. For the regularization being large enough, the existence of a global weak solution, which is smooth away from finitely many singularities is proven. It is shown that the evolution equations converge weakly to a regularized Dirac-harmonic map. In addition, it is discussed if the regularization can be removed in this case.
Our work goes in two directions. At first we want to transfer definitions, concepts and results of the theory of hyperidentities and solid varieties from the total to the partial case. (1) We prove that the operators chi^A_RNF and chi^E_RNF are only monotone and additive and we show that the sets of all fixed points of these operators are characterized only by three instead of four equivalent conditions for the case of closure operators. (2) We prove that V is n − SF-solid iff clone^SF V is free with respect to itself, freely generated by the independent set {[fi(x_1, . . . , x_n)]Id^SF_n V | i \in I}. (3) We prove that if V is n-fluid and ~V |P(V ) =~V −iso |P(V ) then V is kunsolid for k >= n (where P(V ) is the set of all V -proper hypersubstitutions of type \tau ). (4) We prove that a strong M-hyperquasi-equational theory is characterized by four equivalent conditions. The second direction of our work is to follow ideas which are typical for the partial case. (1) We characterize all minimal partial clones which are strongly solidifyable. (2)We define the operator Chi^A_Ph where Ph is a monoid of regular partial hypersubstitutions.Using this concept, we define the concept of a Phyp_R(\tau )-solid strong regular variety of partial algebras and we prove that a PHyp_R(\tau )-solid strong regular variety satisfies four equivalent conditions.
In this thesis we study reciprocal classes of Markov chains. Given a continuous time Markov chain on a countable state space, acting as reference dynamics, the associated reciprocal class is the set of all probability measures on path space that can be written as a mixture of its bridges. These processes possess a conditional independence property that generalizes the Markov property, and evolved from an idea of Schrödinger, who wanted to obtain a probabilistic interpretation of quantum mechanics.
Associated to a reciprocal class is a set of reciprocal characteristics, which are space-time functions that determine the reciprocal class. We compute explicitly these characteristics, and divide them into two main families: arc characteristics and cycle characteristics. As a byproduct, we obtain an explicit criterion to check when two different Markov chains share their bridges.
Starting from the characteristics we offer two different descriptions of the reciprocal class, including its non-Markov probabilities.
The first one is based on a pathwise approach and the second one on short time asymptotic. With the first approach one produces a family of functional equations whose only solutions are precisely the elements of the reciprocal class. These equations are integration by parts on path space associated with derivative operators which perturb the paths by mean of the addition of random loops. Several geometrical tools are employed to construct such formulas. The problem of obtaining sharp characterizations is also considered, showing some interesting connections with discrete geometry. Examples of such formulas are given in the framework of counting processes and random walks on Abelian groups, where the set of loops has a group structure.
In addition to this global description, we propose a second approach by looking at the short time behavior of a reciprocal process. In the same way as the Markov property and short time expansions of transition probabilities characterize Markov chains, we show that a reciprocal class is characterized by imposing the reciprocal property and two families of short time expansions for the bridges. Such local approach is suitable to study reciprocal processes on general countable graphs. As application of our characterization, we considered several interesting graphs, such as lattices, planar
graphs, the complete graph, and the hypercube.
Finally, we obtain some first results about concentration of measure implied by lower bounds on the reciprocal characteristics.
In this thesis we mainly generalize two theorems from Mackaay-Picken and Picken (2002, 2004). In the first paper, Mackaay and Picken show that there is a bijective correspondence between Deligne 2-classes $\xi \in \check{H}^2(M,\mathcal{D}^2)$ and holonomy maps from the second thin-homotopy group $\pi_2^2(M)$ to $U(1)$. In the second one, a generalization of this theorem to manifolds with boundaries is given: Picken shows that there is a bijection between Deligne 2-cocycles and a certain variant of 2-dimensional topological quantum field theories. In this thesis we show that these two theorems hold in every dimension. We consider first the holonomy case, and by using simplicial methods we can prove that the group of smooth Deligne $d$-classes is isomorphic to the group of smooth holonomy maps from the $d^{th}$ thin-homotopy group $\pi_d^d(M)$ to $U(1)$, if $M$ is $(d-1)$-connected. We contrast this with a result of Gajer (1999). Gajer showed that Deligne $d$-classes can be reconstructed by a different class of holonomy maps, which not only include holonomies along spheres, but also along general $d$-manifolds in $M$. This approach does not require the manifold $M$ to be $(d-1)$-connected. We show that in the case of flat Deligne $d$-classes, our result differs from Gajers, if $M$ is not $(d-1)$-connected, but only $(d-2)$-connected. Stiefel manifolds do have this property, and if one applies our theorem to these and compare the result with that of Gajers theorem, it is revealed that our theorem reconstructs too many Deligne classes. This means, that our reconstruction theorem cannot live without the extra assumption on the manifold $M$, that is our reconstruction needs less informations about the holonomy of $d$-manifolds in $M$ at the price of assuming $M$ to be $(d-1)$-connected. We continue to show, that also the second theorem can be generalized: By introducing the concept of Picken-type topological quantum field theory in arbitrary dimensions, we can show that every Deligne $d$-cocycle induces such a $d$-dimensional field theory with two special properties, namely thin-invariance and smoothness. We show that any $d$-dimensional topological quantum field theory with these two properties gives rise to a Deligne $d$-cocycle and verify that this construction is surjective and injective, that is both groups are isomorphic.