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This paper presents a methodological and conceptual replication of Stieglitz and Dang-Xuan’s (2013) investigation of the role of sentiment in information-sharing behavior on social media. Whereas Stieglitz and Dang-Xuan (2013) focused on Twitter communication prior to the state parliament elections in the German states Baden-Wurttemberg, Rheinland-Pfalz, and Berlin in 2011, we test their theoretical propositions in the context of the state parliament elections in Saxony-Anhalt (Germany) 2021. We confirm the positive link between sentiment in a political Twitter message and its number of retweets in a methodological replication. In a conceptual replication, where sentiment was assessed with the alternative dictionary-based tool LIWC, the sentiment was negatively associated with the retweet volume. In line with the original study, the strength of association between sentiment and retweet time lag insignificantly differs between tweets with negative sentiment and tweets with positive sentiment. We also found that the number of an author’s followers was an essential determinant of sharing behavior. However, two hypotheses supported in the original study did not hold for our sample. Precisely, the total amount of sentiments was insignificantly linked to the time lag to the first retweet. Finally, in our data, we do not observe that the association between the overall sentiment and retweet quantity is stronger for tweets with negative sentiment than for those with positive sentiment.
Public opinion polls have become vital and increasingly visible parts of election campaigns. Previous research has frequently demonstrated that polls can influence both citizens' voting intentions and political parties' campaign strategies. However, they are also fraught with uncertainty. Margins of error can reflect (parts of) this uncertainty. This paper investigates how citizens' voting intentions change due to whether polling estimates are presented with or without margins of error.
Using a vignette experiment (N=3224), we examine this question based on a real-world example in which different election polls were shown to nationally representative respondents ahead of the 2021 federal election in Germany. We manipulated the display of the margins of error, the interpretation of polls and the closeness of the electoral race.
The results indicate that margins of error can influence citizens' voting intentions. This effect is dependent on the actual closeness of the race and additional interpretative guidance provided to voters. More concretely, the results consistently show that margins of error increase citizens' inclination to vote for one of the two largest contesting parties if the polling gap between these parties is small, and an interpretation underlines this closeness.
The findings of this study are important for three reasons. First, they help to determine whether margins of error can assist citizens in making more informed (strategic) vote decisions. They shed light on whether depicting opinion-poll uncertainty affects the key features of representative democracy, such as democratic accountability. Second, the results stress the responsibility of the media. The way polls are interpreted and contextualized influences the effect of margins of error on voting behaviour. Third, the findings of this paper underscore the significance of including methodological details when communicating scientific research findings to the broader public.