Refine
Year of publication
Document Type
- Article (71)
- Postprint (21)
- Report (7)
- Monograph/Edited Volume (3)
- Other (2)
- Preprint (2)
- Habilitation Thesis (1)
- Review (1)
Is part of the Bibliography
- yes (108) (remove)
Keywords
- Germany (15)
- damage (9)
- preparedness (9)
- vulnerability (8)
- floods (6)
- Klimaanpassung (5)
- Turkey (5)
- Starkregen (4)
- disaster risk reduction (4)
- governance (4)
- insurance (4)
- mitigation (4)
- people (4)
- private households (4)
- recovery (4)
- Adaptation (3)
- August 2002 flood (3)
- Central Europe (3)
- ERA5 (3)
- Europe (3)
- Flood (3)
- Floods (3)
- Floods Directive (3)
- June 2013 flood (3)
- Natural hazards (3)
- Risk reduction (3)
- adaptation (3)
- climate change adaptation (3)
- emergency management (3)
- flood hazards (3)
- flood risk (3)
- frequency analysis (3)
- hierarchical clustering (3)
- motivation (3)
- pathway (3)
- precaution (3)
- resilience (3)
- risk communication (3)
- risk governance (3)
- risk management (3)
- risk management cycle (3)
- risk perceptions (3)
- City ranking (2)
- Climate adaptation (2)
- Deutschland (2)
- Direct economic loss (2)
- Flood risk (2)
- Hangrutschungen (2)
- Hess-Brezowsky Großwetterlagen classification (2)
- Hitze (2)
- Klimaschutz (2)
- Land use change (2)
- Mountain basins (2)
- Recovery (2)
- Risikokommunikation (2)
- Stadtplanung (2)
- Sturzflut (2)
- august 2002 (2)
- capacities (2)
- climate change (2)
- critical meteorological condition (2)
- early warning (2)
- effectiveness (2)
- emergency response (2)
- extreme rainfall (2)
- flash flood (2)
- flood recovery (2)
- flooding (2)
- health (2)
- heat (2)
- integrated flood risk management (2)
- landslides (2)
- natural hazard management (2)
- natural hazards (2)
- pluvial floods (2)
- railway transportation (2)
- residents (2)
- resources (2)
- risk perception (2)
- social science (2)
- societal equity (2)
- surface water flooding (2)
- transferability (2)
- 2016-origin (1)
- Adaptation plans (1)
- Adaptation to climate change (1)
- Adaptation tracking (1)
- Ahr (1)
- Ahr River (1)
- Alpine hazards (1)
- Anpassungsmaßnahmen (1)
- Anpassungsverhalten (1)
- Asset estimation (1)
- Austria (1)
- Auswirkungen des Klimawandels (1)
- Bavaria (1)
- Bayesian Network (1)
- Begrünung (1)
- Berlin (1)
- Besucherbefragung (1)
- Betroffenenbefragung (1)
- Bodenkühlpotenzial (1)
- Braunsbach (1)
- Capital Approach Framework (CAF) (1)
- Climate Adaptation (1)
- Climate Mitigation (1)
- Climate change (1)
- Climate change adaptation Saxony (1)
- Climate mitigation (1)
- Climate policy integration (1)
- Cluster analysis (1)
- Coastal hazards (1)
- Communications/decision making (1)
- Company (1)
- Compound flood event (1)
- Coping appraisal (1)
- Costs (1)
- Disaster loss databases (1)
- Droughts (1)
- EU Floods Directive (1)
- Eigenvorsorge (1)
- Emergency (1)
- Emergency response (1)
- Engineering , Environmental (1)
- Engineering, Civil (1)
- Environmental Sciences (1)
- Erosion (1)
- Event documentation (1)
- Extreme events (1)
- Extreme value statistics (1)
- Extremniederschlag (1)
- Extremwertstatistik (1)
- Federal Water Act (1)
- Field experiments (1)
- Flood damage potential (1)
- Flood defence measures (1)
- Flood impacts (1)
- Flood losses (1)
- Flooding (1)
- Gefahrenkarten (1)
- Geosciences, Multidisciplinary (1)
- Groundwater (1)
- Hail (1)
- Hazard (1)
- Hess-Brezowsky Grosswetterlagen classification (1)
- Historic natural hazards (1)
- Hitzebelastung (1)
- Hochwasser (1)
- Hochwassergefährdung (1)
- Hochwasserregime (1)
- Hochwasserrisikomanagementrichtlinie (1)
- Hochwasserversicherung (1)
- Insurance (1)
- Klimapolitische Integration (1)
- LCGA (1)
- Lech catchment (1)
- Levee (1)
- Loss (1)
- Loss modeling (1)
- Loss modelling (1)
- Markov Blanket (1)
- Meteorological Event Analysis (1)
- Meteorologische Ereignisanalyse (1)
- Mitigation (1)
- Modellstadt (1)
- Moral hazard (1)
- Naturgefahren (1)
- Open-Air-Veranstaltungen (1)
- OpenStreetMap (1)
- Pfadanalysen (1)
- Pilotmaßnahmen (1)
- Potsdam (1)
- Private businesses (1)
- Regional & Urban Planning (1)
- Resilience (1)
- Resilienz (1)
- Risikomanagement (1)
- Risk governance (1)
- Risk reduction partnerships (1)
- Riverine floods (1)
- Scenarios (1)
- Schadensabschätzung (1)
- Schadensmodellierung (1)
- Schadensprozesse (1)
- Societal impacts (1)
- Socioeconomic scenarios (1)
- Spatial policy (1)
- Stadtentwicklung (1)
- Stadtranking (1)
- Storm (1)
- Surface floods (1)
- Survey of affected residents (1)
- Temporal variability (1)
- Transferablity (1)
- Transport sector (1)
- UNISDR (1)
- Urban Flooding (1)
- Urban climate policy (1)
- Urban planning (1)
- Verhaltensbeobachtung (1)
- Vulnerability (1)
- Wasserhaushaltsgesetz (1)
- Water Resources (1)
- Wissenstransfer (1)
- Würzburg (1)
- adapatation measures (1)
- adaptation behavior (1)
- adaptation to climate change (1)
- affected residents (1)
- analysis of pathways (1)
- attrition bias (1)
- attrition rate (1)
- breaches (1)
- building damage (1)
- buildings (1)
- circulation patterns (1)
- city of Potsdam (1)
- city of Wuerzburg (1)
- climate (1)
- climate adaptation (1)
- climate change impacts (1)
- damage assessment (1)
- damage estimation (1)
- damaging processes (1)
- debris flow (1)
- disaster risk (1)
- discharge pattern (1)
- erosion (1)
- events (1)
- exposure (1)
- extreme flood (1)
- extreme precipitation (1)
- flood hazard mapping; (1)
- flood insurance (1)
- flood loss (1)
- flood regime (1)
- flood risk analysis (1)
- flood risk management (1)
- flood-affected residents (1)
- flow (1)
- global environmental change (1)
- greening (1)
- hazard (1)
- heavy rain (1)
- heavy rainfall (1)
- historical floods (1)
- historische Hochwasser (1)
- impacts (1)
- individual recovery (1)
- inundation simulation (1)
- june 2013 Flood (1)
- knowledge transfer (1)
- land-use (1)
- lech catchment (1)
- longitudinal (1)
- loss modelling (1)
- mai 29th (1)
- mitigation behavior (1)
- mitigation measures (1)
- model (1)
- model city (1)
- modelling (1)
- nutzbare Feldkapazität (1)
- panel (1)
- panel data (1)
- pathways (1)
- pilot measures (1)
- pluvial flooding (1)
- population density (1)
- private precaution (1)
- projections (1)
- protection motivation theory (PMT) (1)
- public communication (1)
- public engagement (1)
- rapid impact assessment (1)
- reduction (1)
- risk (1)
- risk reduction (1)
- scenarios (1)
- social vulnerability (1)
- urban development (1)
- urban planning (1)
- urbane Böden (1)
- Überflutungssimulation (1)
- Übertragbarkeit (1)
This thesis deals with different aspects of flood risk in Germany. In twelve papers new scientific findings about flood hazards, factors that influence flood losses as well as effective private precautionary measures are presented. The seasonal distribution of flooding is shown for the whole of Germany. Furthermore, possible impacts of climate change on discharge and flood frequencies are estimated for the catchment of the river Rhine. Moreover, it is simulated at reaches of the Lower Rhine, which effects may result from levee breaches. Flood losses are the focus of the second part of the thesis: After the flood in August 2002 approximately 1700 households were interviewed by telephone. By this, it was possible to quantify the influence of different factors such as flood duration or the contamination of the flood water with oil on the extent of financial flood damage. On this basis, a new model was derived, by which flood losses can be calculated on a large scale. On the other hand, it was possible to derive recommendations for the improvement of private precaution. For example, the analysis revealed that insured households were compensated more quickly and to a better degree than uninsured. It became also clear that different groups like tenants and homeowners have different capabilities of performing precaution. This is to be considered in future risk communication. In 2005 and 2006, the rivers Elbe and Danube were again affected by flooding. A renewed pool among households and public authorities enabled us to investigate the improvement of flood risk management and the precaution in the City of Dresden. Several methods and finding of this thesis are applicable for water resources management issues and contribute to an improvement of flood risk analysis and management in Germany.
In the recent past, the Alpine Lech valley (Austria) experienced three damaging flood events within 6 years despite the various structural flood protection measures in place. For an improved flood risk management, the analysis of flood damage potentials is a crucial component. Since the expansion of built-up areas and their associated values is seen as one of the main drivers of rising flood losses, the goal of this study is to analyze the spatial development of the assets at risk, particularly of residential areas, due to land use changes over a historic period (since 1971) and up to possible shifts in future (until 2030). The analysis revealed that the alpine study area was faced to remarkable land use changes like urbanization and the decline of agriculturally used grassland areas. Although the major agglomeration of residential areas inside the flood plains took place before 1971, a steady growth of values at risk can still be observed until now. Even for the future, the trend is ongoing, but depends very much on the assumed land use scenario and the underlying land use policy. Between 1971 and 2006, the annual growth rate of the damage potential of residential areas amounted to 1.1 % ('constant values,' i.e., asset values at constant prices of reference year 2006) or 3.0 % ('adjusted values,' i.e., asset values adjusted by GDP increase at constant prices of reference year 2006) for three flood scenarios. For the projected time span between 2006 and 2030, a further annual increase by 1.0 % ('constant values') or even 4.2 % ('adjusted values') may be possible when the most extreme urbanization scenario 'Overall Growth' is considered. Although socio-economic development is regarded as the main driver for increasing flood losses, our analysis shows that settlement development does not preferably take place within flood prone areas.
Flood loss modeling is an important component within flood risk assessments. Traditionally, stage-damage functions are used for the estimation of direct monetary damage to buildings. Although it is known that such functions are governed by large uncertainties, they are commonly applied - even in different geographical regions - without further validation, mainly due to the lack of real damage data. Until now, little research has been done to investigate the applicability and transferability of such damage models to other regions. In this study, the last severe flood event in the Austrian Lech Valley in 2005 was simulated to test the performance of various damage functions from different geographical regions in Central Europe for the residential sector. In addition to common stage-damage curves, new functions were derived from empirical flood loss data collected in the aftermath of recent flood events in neighboring Germany. Furthermore, a multi-parameter flood loss model for the residential sector was adapted to the study area and also evaluated with official damage data. The analysis reveals that flood loss functions derived from related and more similar regions perform considerably better than those from more heterogeneous data sets of different regions and flood events. While former loss functions estimate the observed damage well, the latter overestimate the reported loss clearly. To illustrate the effect of model choice on the resulting uncertainty of damage estimates, the current flood risk for residential areas was calculated. In the case of extreme events like the 300 yr flood, for example, the range of losses to residential buildings between the highest and the lowest estimates amounts to a factor of 18, in contrast to properly validated models with a factor of 2.3. Even if the risk analysis is only performed for residential areas, our results reveal evidently that a carefree model transfer in other geographical regions might be critical. Therefore, we conclude that loss models should at least be selected or derived from related regions with similar flood and building characteristics, as far as no model validation is possible. To further increase the general reliability of flood loss assessment in the future, more loss data and more comprehensive loss data for model development and validation are needed.
Flood risk is expected to increase in many regions of the world in the next decades with rising flood losses as a consequence. First and foremost, it can be attributed to the expansion of settlement and industrial areas into flood plains and the resulting accumulation of assets. For a future-oriented and a more robust flood risk management, it is therefore of importance not only to estimate potential impacts of climate change on the flood hazard, but also to analyze the spatio-temporal dynamics of flood exposure due to land use changes. In this study, carried out in the Alpine Lech Valley in Tyrol (Austria), various land use scenarios until 2030 were developed by means of a spatially explicit land use model, national spatial planning scenarios and current spatial policies. The combination of the simulated land use patterns with different inundation scenarios enabled us to derive statements about possible future changes in flood-exposed built-up areas. The results indicate that the potential assets at risk depend very much on the selected socioeconomic scenario. The important conditions affecting the potential assets at risk that differ between the scenarios are the demand for new built-up areas as well as on the types of conversions allowed to provide the necessary areas at certain locations. The range of potential changes in flood-exposed residential areas varies from no further change in the most moderate scenario 'Overall Risk' to 119 % increase in the most extreme scenario 'Overall Growth' (under current spatial policy) and 159 % increase when disregarding current building restrictions.
Due to limited public budgets and the need to economize, the analysis of costs of hazard mitigation and emergency management of natural hazards becomes increasingly important for public natural hazard and risk management. In recent years there has been a growing body of literature on the estimation of losses which supported to help to determine benefits of measures in terms of prevented losses. On the contrary, the costs of mitigation are hardly addressed. This paper thus aims to shed some light on expenses for mitigation and emergency services. For this, we analysed the annual costs of mitigation efforts in four regions/countries of the Alpine Arc: Bavaria (Germany), Tyrol (Austria), South Tyrol (Italy) and Switzerland. On the basis of PPP values (purchasing power parities), annual expenses on public safety ranged from EUR 44 per capita in the Free State of Bavaria to EUR 216 in the Autonomous Province of South Tyrol. To analyse the (variable) costs for emergency services in case of an event, we used detailed data from the 2005 floods in the Federal State of Tyrol (Austria) as well as aggregated data from the 2002 floods in Germany. The analysis revealed that multi-hazards, the occurrence and intermixture of different natural hazard processes, contribute to increasing emergency costs. Based on these findings, research gaps and recommendations for costing Alpine natural hazards are discussed.
Flood damage has increased significantly and is expected to rise further in many parts of the world. For assessing potential changes in flood risk, this paper presents an integrated model chain quantifying flood hazards and losses while considering climate and land use changes. In the case study region, risk estimates for the present and the near future illustrate that changes in flood risk by 2030 are relatively low compared to historic periods. While the impact of climate change on the flood hazard and risk by 2030 is slight or negligible, strong urbanisation associated with economic growth contributes to a remarkable increase in flood risk. Therefore, it is recommended to frequently consider land use scenarios and economic developments when assessing future flood risks. Further, an adapted and sustainable risk management is necessary to encounter rising flood losses, in which non-structural measures are becoming more and more important. The case study demonstrates that adaptation by non-structural measures such as stricter land use regulations or enhancement of private precaution is capable of reducing flood risk by around 30 %. Ignoring flood risks, in contrast, always leads to further increasing losses-with our assumptions by 17 %. These findings underline that private precaution and land use regulation could be taken into account as low cost adaptation strategies to global climate change in many flood prone areas. Since such measures reduce flood risk regardless of climate or land use changes, they can also be recommended as no-regret measures.
In the aftermath of the severe flooding in Central Europe in August 2002, a number of changes in flood policies were launched in Germany and other European countries, aiming at improved risk management. The question arises as to whether these changes have already had an impact on the residents' ability to cope with floods, and whether flood-affected private households are now better prepared than they were in 2002. Therefore, computer-aided telephone interviews with private households in Germany that suffered from property damage due to flooding in 2005, 2006, 2010 or 2011 were performed and analysed with respect to flood awareness, precaution, preparedness and recovery. The data were compared to a similar investigation conducted after the flood in 2002.
After the flood in 2002, the level of private precautions taken increased considerably. One contributing factor is the fact that, in general, a larger proportion of people knew that they were at risk of flooding. The best level of precaution was found before the flood events in 2006 and 2011. The main reason for this might be that residents had more experience with flooding than residents affected in 2005 or 2010. Yet, overall, flood experience and knowledge did not necessarily result in building retrofitting or flood-proofing measures, which are considered as mitigating damages most effectively. Hence, investments still need to be stimulated in order to reduce future damage more efficiently.
Early warning and emergency responses were substantially influenced by flood characteristics. In contrast to flood-affected people in 2006 or 2011, people affected by flooding in 2005 or 2010 had to deal with shorter lead times and therefore had less time to take emergency measures. Yet, the lower level of emergency measures taken also resulted from the people's lack of flood experience and insufficient knowledge of how to protect themselves. Overall, it was noticeable that these residents suffered from higher losses. Therefore, it is important to further improve early warning systems and communication channels, particularly in hilly areas with rapid-onset flooding.
The literature on the costing of mitigation measures for reducing impacts of natural hazards is rather fragmented. This paper provides a concise overview of the current state of knowledge in Europe on the costing of mitigation measures for the reduction of natural hazard risks (droughts, floods, storms and induced coastal hazards as well as alpine hazards) and identifies knowledge gaps and related research recommendations. Furthermore, it provides a taxonomy of related mitigation options, classifying them into nine categories: (1) management plans, land-use planning, and climate adaptation; (2) hazard modification; (3) infrastructure; (4) mitigation measures (stricto sensu); (5) communication in advance of events; (6) monitoring and early warning systems; (7) emergency response and evacuation; (8) financial incentives; and (9) risk transfer (including insurance). It is found that the costing of mitigation measures in European and in other countries has almost exclusively focused on estimating direct costs. A cost assessment framework that addresses a range of costs, possibly informed by multiple stakeholders, would provide more accurate estimates and could provide better guidance to decision makers. (C) 2014 American Society of Civil Engineers.