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The spatial pattern of extreme precipitation from 40 years of gauge data in the central Himalaya
(2022)
The topography of the Himalaya exerts a substantial control on the spatial distribution of monsoonal rainfall, which is a vital water source for the regional economy and population. But the occurrence of short-lived and high-intensity precipitation results in socio-economic losses. This study relies on 40 years of daily data from 204 ground stations in Nepal to derive extreme precipitation thresholds, amounts, and days at the 95th percentile. We additionally determine the precipitation magnitude-frequency relation. We observe that extreme precipitation amounts follow an almost uniform band parallel to topographic contour lines in the southern Himalaya mountains in central and eastern Nepal but not in western Nepal. The relationship of extreme precipitation indices with topographic relief shows that extreme precipitation thresholds decrease with increasing elevation, but extreme precipitation days increase in higher elevation areas. Furthermore, stations above 1 km elevation exhibit a power-law relation in the rainfall magnitude-frequency framework. Stations at higher elevations generally have lower values of power-law exponents than low elevation areas. This suggests a fundamentally different behaviour of the rainfall distribution and an increased occurrence of extreme rainfall storms in the high elevation areas of Nepal.
Anthropogenic climate change alters the hydrological cycle. While certain areas experience more intense precipitation events, others will experience droughts and increased evaporation, affecting water storage in long-term reservoirs, groundwater, snow, and glaciers. High elevation environments are especially vulnerable to climate change, which will impact the water supply for people living downstream. The Himalaya has been identified as a particularly vulnerable system, with nearly one billion people depending on the runoff in this system as their main water resource. As such, a more refined understanding of spatial and temporal changes in the water cycle in high altitude systems is essential to assess variations in water budgets under different climate change scenarios.
However, not only anthropogenic influences have an impact on the hydrological cycle, but changes to the hydrological cycle can occur over geological timescales, which are connected to the interplay between orogenic uplift and climate change. However, their temporal evolution and causes are often difficult to constrain. Using proxies that reflect hydrological changes with an increase in elevation, we can unravel the history of orogenic uplift in mountain ranges and its effect on the climate.
In this thesis, stable isotope ratios (expressed as δ2H and δ18O values) of meteoric waters and organic material are combined as tracers of atmospheric and hydrologic processes with remote sensing products to better understand water sources in the Himalayas. In addition, the record of modern climatological conditions based on the compound specific stable isotopes of leaf waxes (δ2Hwax) and brGDGTs (branched Glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers) in modern soils in four Himalayan river catchments was assessed as proxies of the paleoclimate and (paleo-) elevation. Ultimately, hydrological variations over geological timescales were examined using δ13C and δ18O values of soil carbonates and bulk organic matter originating from sedimentological sections from the pre-Siwalik and Siwalik groups to track the response of vegetation and monsoon intensity and seasonality on a timescale of 20 Myr.
I find that Rayleigh distillation, with an ISM moisture source, mainly controls the isotopic composition of surface waters in the studied Himalayan catchments. An increase in d-excess in the spring, verified by remote sensing data products, shows the significant impact of runoff from snow-covered and glaciated areas on the surface water isotopic values in the timeseries.
In addition, I show that biomarker records such as brGDGTs and δ2Hwax have the potential to record (paleo-) elevation by yielding a significant correlation with the temperature and surface water δ2H values, respectively, as well as with elevation. Comparing the elevation inferred from both brGDGT and δ2Hwax, large differences were found in arid sections of the elevation transects due to an additional effect of evapotranspiration on δ2Hwax. A combined study of these proxies can improve paleoelevation estimates and provide recommendations based on the results found in this study.
Ultimately, I infer that the expansion of C4 vegetation between 20 and 1 Myr was not solely dependent on atmospheric pCO2, but also on regional changes in aridity and seasonality from to the stable isotopic signature of the two sedimentary sections in the Himalaya (east and west).
This thesis shows that the stable isotope chemistry of surface waters can be applied as a tool to monitor the changing Himalayan water budget under projected increasing temperatures. Minimizing the uncertainties associated with the paleo-elevation reconstructions were assessed by the combination of organic proxies (δ2Hwax and brGDGTs) in Himalayan soil. Stable isotope ratios in bulk soil and soil carbonates showed the evolution of vegetation influenced by the monsoon during the late Miocene, proving that these proxies can be used to record monsoon intensity, seasonality, and the response of vegetation. In conclusion, the use of organic proxies and stable isotope chemistry in the Himalayas has proven to successfully record changes in climate with increasing elevation. The combination of δ2Hwax and brGDGTs as a new proxy provides a more refined understanding of (paleo-)elevation and the influence of climate.
Variation of deuterium excess in surface waters across a 5000-m elevation gradient in eastern Nepal
(2020)
The strong elevation gradient of the Himalaya allows for investigation of altitude and orographic impacts on surface water delta O-18 and delta D stable isotope values. This study differentiates the time- and altitude-variable contributions of source waters to the Arun River in eastern Nepal. It provides isotope data along a 5000-m gradient collected from tributaries as well as groundwater, snow, and glacial-sourced surface waters and time-series data from April to October 2016. We find nonlinear trends in delta O-18 and delta D lapse rates with high-elevation lapse rates (4000-6000 masl) 5-7 times more negative than low-elevation lapse rates (1000-3000 masl). A distinct seasonal signal in delta O-18 and delta D lapse rates indicates time-variable source-water contributions from glacial and snow meltwater as well as precipitation transitions between the Indian Summer Monsoon and Winter Westerly Disturbances. Deuterium excess correlates with the extent of snowpack and tracks melt events during the Indian Summer Monsoon season. Our analysis identifies the influence of snow and glacial melt waters on river composition during low-flow conditions before the monsoon (April/May 2016) followed by a 5-week transition to the Indian Summer Monsoon-sourced rainfall around mid-June 2016. In the post-monsoon season, we find continued influence from glacial melt waters as well as ISM-sourced groundwater.
The transfer of particulate organic carbon from continents to the ocean is an important component of the global carbon cycle. Transfer to and burial of photosynthetically fixed biospheric organic carbon in marine sediments can effectively sequester atmospheric carbon dioxide over geological timescales. The exhumation and erosion of fossil organic carbon contained in sedimentary rocks, i.e. petrogenic carbon, can result in remineralization, releasing carbon to the atmosphere. In contrast, eroded petrogenic organic carbon that gets transferred back to the ocean and reburied does not affect atmospheric carbon content.
Mountain ranges play a key role in this transfer since they can source vast amounts of sediment including particulate organic carbon. Globally, the export of both, biospheric and petrogenic organic carbon has been linked to sediment export. Additionally, short transfer times from mountains to the ocean and high sediment concentrations have been shown to increase the likelihood of organic carbon burial. While the importance of mountain ranges in the organic carbon cycle is now widely recognized, the processes acting within mountain ranges to influence the storage, cycling and mobilization of organic carbon, as well as carbon fluxes from mountain ranges remain poorly constrained.
In this thesis, I employ different methods to assess the nature and fate of particulate organic carbon in mountain belts, ranging from the molecular to regional landscape scale. These studies are located along the Trans-Himalayan Kali Gandaki River in Central Nepal. This river traverses all major geological and climatic zones of the Himalaya, from the dry northern Tibetan plateau to the high-relief, monsoon dominated steep High Himalaya and the lower relief and abundant vegetation of the Lesser Himalayan region.
First, I document how biospheric organic matter has accumulated during the Holocene in the headwaters of the Kali Gandaki River valley, by combining compound specific isotope measurements with different dating methods and grain size data, and investigate the stability of this organic carbon reservoir on millennial timescales. I show, that around 1.6 ka an eco-geomorphic tipping point occurred leading to a destabilization of the landscape resulting in today’s high erosion rates and the excavation of the aged organic carbon reservoir. This study highlights the climatic and geomorphic controls on biospheric organic carbon storage and release from mountain ranges.
Second, I systematically investigate the spatial variation of particulate organic carbon fluxes across the Himalaya along the Kali Gandaki River, using bulk stable and radioactive isotopes combined with a new Bayesian modeling approach. The detailed dataset allows the distinction of aged and modern biospheric organic carbon as well as petrogenic organic carbon across the Himalayan mountain range and the investigation of the role of climatic and geomorphic factors in their riverine export. The data suggest a decoupling of the particulate organic carbon from the sediment yield along the Kali Gandaki River, partially driven by climatic and geomorphic processes. In contrast to the suspended sediment, a large part of the particulate organic carbon exported by the river originates from the Tibetan part of the catchment and is dominated by petrogenic organic carbon derived from Jurassic shales with only minor contributions of modern and aged biospheric organic carbon. These findings emphasize the importance of organic carbon source distribution and erosion mechanisms in determining the organic carbon export from mountain ranges.
In a third step, I explore the potential of ultra-high resolution mass spectrometry for particulate organic carbon transport studies. I have generated a novel and unprecedented high-resolution molecular dataset, which contains up to 103 molecular formulas of the lipid fraction of particulate organic matter for modern and aged biospheric carbon, petrogenic organic carbon and river sediments. First, I test if this dataset can be used to better resolve different organic carbon sources and to identify new geochemical tracers. Using multivariate statistics, I identify up to 10² characteristic molecular formulas for the major organic carbon sources in the upper part of the Kali Gandaki catchment, and trace their transfer from the surrounding landscape into the river sediment. Second, I test the potential of the molecular dataset to trace molecular transformations along source-to-sink pathways. I identify changes in molecular metrics derived from the dataset, which are characteristic of transformation processes during incorporation of litter into soil, the aging of soil material, and the mobilization of the organic carbon into the river. These two studies demonstrate that high-resolution molecular datasets open a promising analytical window on particulate organic carbon and can provide novel insights into the composition, sourcing and transformation of riverine particulate organic carbon.
Collectively, these studies advance our understanding of the processes contributing to the storage and mobilization of organic carbon in the Central Himalaya, the mountain belt that dominates global erosional fluxes. They do so by identifying the major sources of particulate organic carbon to the Trans-Himalayan Kali Gandaki River, by elucidating their sensitivity to climate and geomorphic processes, and by identifying some of the transformations of this material on the molecular scale. As a result, the thesis demonstrates that the amount and composition of organic carbon routed from mountain belts is a function of the dynamic interactions of geologic, biologic, geomorphic and climatic processes within the mountain belt. This understanding will ultimately help in answering whether the build-up and erosion of mountain ranges over geological time represents a net carbon source or sink to the atmosphere. Beyond this, the thesis contributes to our technical ability to characterize organic matter and attribute it to sources by scoping the potential of high-end molecular analysis.
Rivers transfer particulate organic carbon (POC) from eroding mountains into geological sinks. Organic carbon source composition and selective mobilization have been shown to affect the type and quantity of POC export, but their combined effects across complex mountain ranges remain underexplored. Here, we examine the variation in organic carbon sourcing and transport in the trans-Himalayan Kali Gandaki River catchment, along strong gradients in precipitation, rock type and vegetation. Combining bulk stable nitrogen, and stable and radioactive organic carbon isotopic composition of bedrock, litter, soil and river sediment samples with a Bayesian end-member mixing approach, we differentiate POC sources along the river and quantify their export. Our analysis shows that POC export from the Tibetan segment of the catchment, where carbon bearing shales are partially covered by aged and modern soils, is dominated by petrogenic POC. Based on our data we re-assess the presence of aged biospheric OC in this part of the catchment, and its contribution to the river load. In the High Himalayan segment, we observed low inputs of petrogenic and biospheric POC, likely due to very low organic carbon concentrations in the metamorphic bedrock, combined with erosion dominated by deep-seated landslides. Our findings show that along the Kali Gandaki River, the sourcing of sediment and organic carbon are decoupled, due to differences in rock organic carbon content, soil and above ground carbon stocks, and geomorphic process activity. While the fast eroding High Himalayas are the principal source of river sediment, the Tibetan headwaters, where erosion rates are lower, are the principal source of organic carbon. To robustly estimate organic carbon export from the Himalayas, the mountain range should be divided into tectono-physiographic zones with distinct organic carbon yields due to differences in substrate and erosion processes and rates.
Fold and thrust belts are characteristic features of collisional orogen that grow laterally through time by deforming the upper crust in response to stresses caused by convergence. The deformation propagation in the upper crust is accommodated by shortening along major folds and thrusts. The formation of these structures is influenced by the mechanical strength of décollements, basement architecture, presence of preexisting structures and taper of the wedge. These factors control not only the sequence of deformation but also cause differences in the structural style.
The Himalayan fold and thrust belt exhibits significant differences in the structural style from east to west. The external zone of the Himalayan fold and thrust belt, also called the Subhimalaya, has been extensively studied to understand the temporal development and differences in the structural style in Bhutan, Nepal and India; however, the Subhimalaya in Pakistan remains poorly studied. The Kohat and Potwar fold and thrust belts (herein called Kohat and Potwar) represent the Subhimalaya in Pakistan. The Main Boundary Thrust (MBT) marks the northern boundary of both Kohat and Potwar, showing that these belts are genetically linked to foreland-vergent deformation within the Himalayan orogen, despite the pronounced contrast in structural style. This contrast becomes more pronounced toward south, where the active strike-slip Kalabagh Fault Zone links with the Kohat and Potwar range fronts, known as the Surghar Range and the Salt Range, respectively. The Surghar and Salt Ranges developed above the Surghar Thrust (SGT) and Main Frontal Thrust (MFT). In order to understand the structural style and spatiotemporal development of the major structures in Kohat and Potwar, I have used structural modeling and low temperature thermochronolgy methods in this study. The structural modeling is based on construction of balanced cross-sections by integrating surface geology, seismic reflection profiles and well data. In order to constrain the timing and magnitude of exhumation, I used apatite (U-Th-Sm)/He (AHe) and apatite fission track (AFT) dating. The results obtained from both methods are combined to document the Paleozoic to Recent history of Kohat and Potwar.
The results of this research suggest two major events in the deformation history. The first major deformation event is related to Late Paleozoic rifting associated with the development of the Neo-Tethys Ocean. The second major deformation event is related to the Late Miocene to Pliocene development of the Himalayan fold and thrust belt in the Kohat and Potwar. The Late Paleozoic rifting is deciphered by inverse thermal modelling of detrital AFT and AHe ages from the Salt Range. The process of rifting in this area created normal faulting that resulted in the exhumation/erosion of Early to Middle Paleozoic strata, forming a major unconformity between Cambrian and Permian strata that is exposed today in the Salt Range. The normal faults formed in Late Paleozoic time played an important role in localizing the Miocene-Pliocene deformation in this area. The combination of structural reconstructions and thermochronologic data suggest that deformation initiated at 15±2 Ma on the SGT ramp in the southern part of Kohat. The early movement on the SGT accreted the foreland into the Kohat deforming wedge, forming the range front. The development of the MBT at 12±2 Ma formed the northern boundary of Kohat and Potwar. Deformation propagated south of the MBT in the Kohat on double décollements and in the Potwar on a single basal décollement. The double décollement in the Kohat adopted an active roof-thrust deformation style that resulted in the disharmonic structural style in the upper and lower parts of the stratigraphic section. Incremental shortening resulted in the development of duplexes in the subsurface between two décollements and imbrication above the roof thrust. Tectonic thickening caused by duplexes resulted in cooling and exhumation above the roof thrust by removal of a thick sequence of molasse strata. The structural modelling shows that the ramps on which duplexes formed in Kohat continue as tip lines of fault propagation folds in the Potwar. The absence of a double décollement in the Potwar resulted in the preservation of a thick sequence of molasse strata there. The temporal data suggest that deformation propagated in-sequence from ~ 8 to 3 Ma in the northern part of Kohat and Potwar; however, internal deformation in the Kohat was more intense, probably required for maintaining a critical taper after a significant load was removed above the upper décollement. In the southern part of Potwar, a steeper basement slope (β≥3°) and the presence of salt at the base of the stratigraphic section allowed for the complete preservation of the stratigraphic wedge, showcased by very little internal deformation. Activation of the MFT at ~4 Ma allowed the Salt Range to become the range front of the Potwar. The removal of a large amount of molasse strata above the MFT ramp enhanced the role of salt in shaping the structural style of the Salt Range and Kalabagh Fault Zone. Salt accumulation and migration resulted in the formation of normal faults in both areas. Salt migration in the Kalabagh fault zone has triggered out-of-sequence movement on ramps in the Kohat.
The amount of shortening calculated between the MBT and the SGT in Kohat is 75±5 km and between the MBT and the MFT in Potwar is 65±5 km. A comparable amount of shortening is accommodated in the Kohat and Potwar despite their different widths: 70 km Kohat and 150 km Potwar. In summary, this research suggests that deformation switched between different structures during the last ~15 Ma through different modes of fault propagation, resulting in different structural styles and the out-of-sequence development of Kohat and Potwar.
The Siwalik sedimentary rocks of the Himalayan foreland basin preserve a record of Himalayan orogenesis, paleo-drainage evolution, and erosion. This study focuses on the still poorly studied easternmost Himalaya Siwalik record located directly downstream of the Namche Barwa syntaxis. We use luminescence, palaeomagnetism, magnetostratigraphy, and apatite fission-track dating to constrain the depositional ages of three Siwalik sequences: the Sibo outcrop (Upper Siwalik sediments at ca. 200-800 ka), the Remi section (Middle and Upper Siwalik rocks at >0.8-<8.8 +/- 2.4 Ma), and the Siang section (Middle Siwalik rocks at <9.3 +/- 1.5 to <13.5 +/- 1.5 Ma). Cretaceous-Paleogene detrital zircon and apatite U-Pb ages, characteristic of the Transhimalayan Gangdese Batholiths that crop out northwest of the syntaxis, are present throughout the Sibo, Remi, and Siang successions, confirming the existence of a Yarlung-Brahmaputra connection since at least the Late Miocene. A ca. 500 Ma zircon population increases up section, most strikingly sometime between 3.6 to 6.6 Ma, at the expense of Transhimalayan grains. We consider the ca. 500 Ma population to be derived from the Tethyan or Greater Himalaya, and we interpret the up-section increase to reflect progressive exhumation of the Namche Barwa syntaxis. Early Cretaceous zircon and apatite U-Pb ages are rare in the Sibo, Remi, and Siang successions, but abundant in modern Siang River sediments. Zircons of this age range are characteristic of the Transhimalayan Bomi-Chayu batholiths, which crop out east of the syntaxis and are eroded by the Parlung River, a modern tributary of the Siang River. We interpret the difference in relative abundance of Early Cretaceous zircons between the modern and ancient sediments to reflect capture of the Parlung by the Siang after 800 ka.
Mountain rivers respond to strong earthquakes by rapidly aggrading to accommodate excess sediment delivered by co-seismic landslides. Detailed sediment budgets indicate that rivers need several years to decades to recover from seismic disturbances, depending on how recovery is defined. We examine three principal proxies of river recovery after earthquake-induced sediment pulses around Pokhara, Nepal's second largest city. Freshly exhumed cohorts of floodplain trees in growth position indicate rapid and pulsed sedimentation that formed a fan covering 150 km2 in a Lesser Himalayan basin with tens of metres of debris between the 11th and 15th centuries AD. Radiocarbon dates of buried trees are consistent with those of nearby valley deposits linked to major medieval earthquakes, such that we can estimate average rates of re-incision since. We combine high-resolution digital elevation data, geodetic field surveys, aerial photos, and dated tree trunks to reconstruct geomorphic marker surfaces. The volumes of sediment relative to these surfaces require average net sediment yields of up to 4200 t km–2 yr–1 for the 650 years since the last inferred earthquake-triggered sediment pulse. The lithological composition of channel bedload differs from that of local bedrock, confirming that rivers are still mostly evacuating medieval valley fills, locally incising at rates of up to 0.2 m yr–1. Pronounced knickpoints and epigenetic gorges at tributary junctions further illustrate the protracted fluvial response; only the distal portions of the earthquake-derived sediment wedges have been cut to near their base. Our results challenge the notion that mountain rivers recover speedily from earthquakes within years to decades. The valley fills around Pokhara show that even highly erosive Himalayan rivers may need more than several centuries to adjust to catastrophic perturbations. Our results motivate some rethinking of post-seismic hazard appraisals and infrastructural planning in active mountain regions.
Fluvial terraces, floodplains, and alluvial fans are the main landforms to store sediments and to decouple hillslopes from eroding mountain rivers. Such low-relief landforms are also preferred locations for humans to settle in otherwise steep and poorly accessible terrain. Abundant water and sediment as essential sources for buildings and infrastructure make these areas amenable places to live at. Yet valley floors are also prone to rare and catastrophic sedimentation that can overload river systems by abruptly increasing the volume of sediment supply, thus causing massive floodplain aggradation, lateral channel instability, and increased flooding. Some valley-fill sediments should thus record these catastrophic sediment pulses, allowing insights into their timing, magnitude, and consequences.
This thesis pursues this theme and focuses on a prominent ~150 km2 valley fill in the Pokhara Valley just south of the Annapurna Massif in central Nepal. The Pokhara Valley is conspicuously broad and gentle compared to the surrounding dissected mountain terrain,
and is filled with locally more than 70 m of clastic debris. The area’s main river, Seti Khola, descends from the Annapurna Sabche Cirque at 3500-4500 m asl down to 900 m asl where it incises into this valley fill. Humans began to settle on this extensive
fan surface in the 1750’s when the Trans-Himalayan trade route connected the Higher Himalayas, passing Pokhara city, with the subtropical lowlands of the Terai. High and unstable river terraces and steep gorges undermined by fast flowing rivers with highly seasonal (monsoon-driven) discharge, a high earthquake risk, and a growing population make the Pokhara Valley an ideal place to study the recent geological and geomorphic history of its sediments and the implication for natural hazard appraisals.
The objective of this thesis is to quantify the timing, the sedimentologic and geomorphic processes as well as the fluvial response to a series of strong sediment pulses. I report
diagnostic sedimentary archives, lithofacies of the fan terraces, their geochemical provenance, radiocarbon-age dating and the stratigraphic relationship between them. All these various and independent lines of evidence show consistently that multiple sediment pulses filled the Pokhara Valley in medieval times, most likely in connection with, if not triggered by, strong seismic ground shaking. The geomorphic and sedimentary evidence is
consistent with catastrophic fluvial aggradation tied to the timing of three medieval Himalayan earthquakes in ~1100, 1255, and 1344 AD. Sediment provenance and calibrated radiocarbon-age data are the key to distinguish three individual sediment pulses, as these are not evident from their sedimentology alone. I explore various measures of adjustment and fluvial response of the river system following these massive aggradation pulses. By using proxies such as net volumetric erosion, incision and erosion rates, clast provenance on active river banks, geomorphic markers such as re-exhumed tree trunks in growth position, and knickpoint locations in tributary valleys, I estimate the response of the river network in the Pokhara Valley to earthquake disturbance over several centuries. Estimates of the removed volumes since catastrophic valley filling began, require average net sediment
yields of up to 4200 t km−2 yr−1 since, rates that are consistent with those reported for Himalayan rivers. The lithological composition of active channel-bed load differs from that of local bedrock material, confirming that rivers have adjusted 30-50% depending on data of different tributary catchments, locally incising with rates of 160-220 mm yr−1. In many tributaries to the Seti Khola, most of the contemporary river loads come from a Higher Himalayan source, thus excluding local hillslopes as sources. This imbalance in sediment provenance emphasizes how the medieval sediment pulses must have rapidly traversed up to 70 km downstream to invade the downstream reaches of the tributaries
up to 8 km upstream, thereby blocking the local drainage and thus reinforcing, or locally creating new, floodplain lakes still visible in the landscape today.
Understanding the formation, origin, mechanism and geomorphic processes of this valley fill is crucial to understand the landscape evolution and response to catastrophic sediment pulses. Several earthquake-triggered long-runout rock-ice avalanches or catastrophic dam burst in the Higher Himalayas are the only plausible mechanisms to explain both the geomorphic and sedimentary legacy that I document here. In any case, the Pokhara Valley was most likely hit by a cascade of extremely rare processes over some two centuries starting in the early 11th century. Nowhere in the Himalayas do we find valley fills of
comparable size and equally well documented depositional history, making the Pokhara Valley one of the most extensively dated valley fill in the Himalayas to date. Judging from the growing record of historic Himalayan earthquakes in Nepal that were traced and
dated in fault trenches, this thesis shows that sedimentary archives can be used to directly aid reconstructions and predictions of both earthquake triggers and impacts from a sedimentary-response perspective. The knowledge about the timing, evolution, and response of the Pokhara Valley and its river system to earthquake triggered sediment pulses is important to address the seismic and geomorphic risk for the city of Pokhara. This
thesis demonstrates how geomorphic evidence on catastrophic valley infill can help to independently verify paleoseismological fault-trench records and may initiate re-thinking on post-seismic hazard assessments in active mountain regions.
Plain Language Summary The 2015 Gorkha earthquake in Nepal caused severe losses in the hydropower sector. The country temporarily lost similar to 20% of its hydropower capacity, and >30 hydropower projects were damaged. The projects hit hardest were those that were affected by earthquake-triggered landslides. We show that these projects are located along very steep rivers with towering sidewalls that are prone to become unstable during strong seismic ground shaking. A statistical classification based on a topographic metric that expresses river steepness and earthquake ground acceleration is able to approximately predict hydropower damage during future earthquakes, based on successful testing of past cases. Thus, our model enables us to estimate earthquake damages to hydropower projects in other parts of the Himalayas. We find that >10% of the Himalayan drainage network may be unsuitable for hydropower infrastructure given high probabilities of high earthquake damages.