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Dentro de la cuenca intermontana de Quito-Guay llabamba de Ecuador, se han identificado y analizado en este estudio, cinco depósitos coluviales inusualmente grandes de antiguos deslizamientos. El gran deslizamiento rotacional MM-5 Guayllabamba es el más extenso, con un volumen de 1183 millones de m3. Las mega avalanchas de escombros MM-1 Conocoto, MM-3 Oyacoto, y MM-4 San Francisco fueron desencadenadas originalmente por una ruptura inicial que estuvo asociada a un deslizamiento rotacional, los depósitos correspondientes tienen volúmenes entre 399 a 317 millones de m3. Finalmente, el depósito de menor volumen, el deslizamiento rotacional y caída de detritos MM-2 Batán, tiene un volumen de 8,7 millones de m3. En esta tesis, se realizó un estudio detallado de estos grandes movimientos en masa utilizando métodos neotectónicos y lito-tefrostratigráficos para comprender las condiciones geológicas y geomorfológicas de contorno que podrían ser relevantes para desencadenar estos movimientos en masa. La parte neotectónica del estudio se basó en el análisis geomorfológico cualitativo y cuantitativo de estos grandes depósitos de movimientos en masa, a través de la caracterización estructural de anticlinales ubicados al este de la subcuenca de Quito y sus flancos colapsados que constituyen las áreas de ruptura. Esta parte del análisis fue además apoyada por la aplicación de diferentes índices morfométricos para revelar procesos de evolución del paisaje forzados tectónicamente que pueden haber contribuido a la generación de movimientos en masa. La parte lito-tefrostratigráfica del estudio se basó en el análisis de las características petrográficas, geoquímicas y geocronológicas de los horizontes del suelo y de las cenizas volcánicas intercaladas, con el objetivo de restringir la cronología de los eventos individuales de movimientos en masa y su posible de correlación. Los resultados se integraron en esquemas cronoestratigráficos utilizando superficies de ruptura, relaciones transversales y de superposición de depósitos de deslizamiento y estratos posteriores para comprender los movimientos en masa en el contexto tectónico y temporal del entorno de la cuenca intermontana, así como para identificar los mecanismos desencadenantes de cada evento. El movimiento en masa MM-5 Guayllabamba es el resultado del colapso de la ladera suroeste del volcán Mojanda y fue desencadenado por la interacción de condiciones geológicas y morfológicas hace aproximadamente 0,81 Ma. El primer episodio de avalancha de escombros de los movimientos en masa MM-3 Oyacoto y MM-4 San Francisco podría estar relacionado con condiciones tanto geológicas como morfológicas, dadas las rocas altamente fracturadas y el levantamiento del anticlinal Bellavista-Catequilla que posteriormente fue inciso al pie de la ladera por la erosión fluvial. Este primer episodio de colapso probablemente ocurrió alrededor de los 0,8 Ma. El movimiento en masa MM-2 Batán posiblemente también fue desencadenado por una combinación de condiciones geológicas y morfológicas, asociadas a una reducción de los esfuerzos litostáticos que afectaron a las formaciones Chiche y Machángara y a un aumento de los esfuerzos de cizalla durante procesos de socavación fluvial lateral en los flancos de las áreas de origen. Esto apunta a un proceso vinculado entre la erosión fluvial y los procesos de levantamiento asociados a la evolución del anticlinal El Batán-La Bota que podría haber ocurrido entre 0,5 y 0,25 Ma. La voluminosa avalancha de escombros MM-1 Conocoto, así como el segundo episodio de avalancha de escombros que generó los movimientos en masa MM-3 Oyacoto y MM-4 San Francisco, fueron provocados por el colapso gravitacional de las formaciones Mojanda y Cangahua que se caracterizan por la intercalación de cenizas volcánicas. La falla del flanco oriental de los anticlinales probablemente estuvo asociada al incremento de la humedad disponible relacionada con las variaciones climáticas regionales del Holoceno. Los resultados de la cronología de los paleosuelos combinados con los datos cronoestratigráficos y paleoclimáticos regionales sugieren que estas avalanchas de escombros se desencadenaron entre 5 y 4 ka.
La tectónica activa ha modelado los rasgos morfológicos de la cuenca intermontana Quito-Guayllabamba. El desencadenamiento de movimientos en masa en este ambiente está asociado a rupturas en litologías del Pleistoceno (sedimentos lacustres, depósitos aluviales y volcánicos) sometidas a procesos de deformación, actividad sísmica y episodios superpuestos de variabilidad climática. El Distrito Metropolitano de Quito es parte integral de este complejo entorno y de las condiciones geológicas, climáticas y topográficas que continúan influyendo en el espacio geográfico urbano dentro de esta cuenca intermontana. La ciudad de Quito comprende el área de mayor consolidación urbana incluyendo las subcuencas de Quito y San Antonio, con una población de 2,872 millones de habitantes, lo que refleja la importancia del estudio de las amenazas geológicas y climáticas inherentes a esta región.
Estimating global mean sea-level rise and its uncertainties by 2100 and 2300 from an expert survey
(2020)
Sea-level rise projections and knowledge of their uncertainties are vital to make informed mitigation and adaptation decisions. To elicit projections from members of the scientific community regarding future global mean sea-level (GMSL) rise, we repeated a survey originally conducted five years ago. Under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6, 106 experts projected a likely (central 66% probability) GMSL rise of 0.30-0.65 m by 2100, and 0.54-2.15 m by 2300, relative to 1986-2005. Under RCP 8.5, the same experts projected a likely GMSL rise of 0.63-1.32 m by 2100, and 1.67-5.61 m by 2300. Expert projections for 2100 are similar to those from the original survey, although the projection for 2300 has extended tails and is higher than the original survey. Experts give a likelihood of 42% (original survey) and 45% (current survey) that under the high-emissions scenario GMSL rise will exceed the upper bound (0.98 m) of the likely range estimated by the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which is considered to have an exceedance likelihood of 17%. Responses to open-ended questions suggest that the increases in upper-end estimates and uncertainties arose from recent influential studies about the impact of marine ice cliff instability on the meltwater contribution to GMSL rise from the Antarctic Ice Sheet.
In this paper, we study the effect of exogenous global crop price changes on migration from agricultural and non-agricultural households in Sub-Saharan Africa. We show that, similar to the effect of positive local weather shocks, the effect of a locally-relevant global crop price increase on household out-migration depends on the initial household wealth. Higher international producer prices relax the budget constraint of poor agricultural households and facilitate migration. The order of magnitude of a standardized price effect is approx. one third of the standardized effect of a local weather shock. Unlike positive weather shocks, which mostly facilitate internal rural-urban migration, positive income shocks through rising producer prices only increase migration to neighboring African countries, likely due to the simultaneous decrease in real income in nearby urban areas. Finally, we show that while higher producer prices induce conflict, conflict does not play a role for the household decision to send a member as a labor migrant.
Nearly 13,000 years ago, the warming trend into the Holocene was sharply interrupted by a reversal to near glacial conditions. Climatic causes and ecological consequences of the Younger Dryas (YD) have been extensively studied, however proxy archives from the Mediterranean basin capturing this period are scarce and do not provide annual resolution. Here, we report a hydroclimatic reconstruction from stable isotopes (delta O-18, delta C-13) in subfossil pines from southern France. Growing before and during the transition period into the YD (12 900-12 600 cal BP), the trees provide an annually resolved, continuous sequence of atmospheric change. Isotopic signature of tree sourcewater (delta O-18(sw)) and estimates of relative air humidity were reconstructed as a proxy for variations in air mass origin and precipitation regime. We find a distinct increase in inter-annual variability of sourcewater isotopes (delta O-18(sw)), with three major downturn phases of increasing magnitude beginning at 12 740 cal BP. The observed variation most likely results from an amplified intensity of North Atlantic (low delta O-18(sw)) versus Mediterranean (high delta O-18(sw)) precipitation. This marked pattern of climate variability is not seen in records from higher latitudes and is likely a consequence of atmospheric circulation oscillations at the margin of the southward moving polar front.
The onset of modern central Asian atmospheric circulation is traditionally linked to the interplay of surface uplift of the Mongolian and Tibetan-Himalayan orogens, retreat of the Paratethys sea from central Asia and Cenozoic global cooling. Although the role of these players has not yet been unravelled, the vast dust deposits of central China support the presence of arid conditions and modern atmospheric pathways for the last 25 million years (Myr). Here, we present provenance data from older (42-33 Myr) dust deposits, at a time when the Tibetan Plateau was less developed, the Paratethys sea still present in central Asia and atmospheric pCO(2) much higher. Our results show that dust sources and near-surface atmospheric circulation have changed little since at least 42 Myr. Our findings indicate that the locus of central Asian high pressures and concurrent aridity is a resilient feature only modulated by mountain building, global cooling and sea retreat.
Over the last decades, the Arctic regions of the earth have warmed at a rate 2–3 times faster than the global average– a phenomenon called Arctic Amplification. A complex, non-linear interplay of physical processes and unique pecularities in the Arctic climate system is responsible for this, but the relative role of individual processes remains to be debated. This thesis focuses on the climate change and related processes on Svalbard, an archipelago in the North Atlantic sector of the Arctic, which is shown to be a "hotspot" for the amplified recent warming during winter. In this highly dynamical region, both oceanic and atmospheric large-scale transports of heat and moisture interfere with spatially inhomogenous surface conditions, and the corresponding energy exchange strongly shapes the atmospheric boundary layer. In the first part, Pan-Svalbard gradients in the surface air temperature (SAT) and sea ice extent (SIE) in the fjords are quantified and characterized. This analysis is based on observational data from meteorological stations, operational sea ice charts, and hydrographic observations from the adjacent ocean, which cover the 1980–2016 period. It is revealed that typical estimates of SIE during late winter range from 40–50% (80–90%) in the western (eastern) parts of Svalbard. However, strong SAT warming during winter of the order of 2–3K per decade dictates excessive ice loss, leaving fjords in the western parts essentially ice-free in recent winters. It is further demostrated that warm water currents on the west coast of Svalbard, as well as meridional winds contribute to regional differences in the SIE evolution. In particular, the proximity to warm water masses of the West Spitsbergen Current can explain 20–37% of SIE variability in fjords on west Svalbard, while meridional winds and associated ice drift may regionally explain 20–50% of SIE variability in the north and northeast. Strong SAT warming has overruled these impacts in recent years, though.
In the next part of the analysis, the contribution of large-scale atmospheric circulation changes to the Svalbard temperature development over the last 20 years is investigated. A study employing kinematic air-back trajectories for Ny-Ålesund reveals a shift in the source regions of lower-troposheric air over time for both the winter and the summer season. In winter, air in the recent decade is more often of lower-latitude Atlantic origin, and less frequent of Arctic origin. This affects heat- and moisture advection towards Svalbard, potentially manipulating clouds and longwave downward radiation in that region. A closer investigation indicates that this shift during winter is associated with a strengthened Ural blocking high and Icelandic low, and contributes about 25% to the observed winter warming on Svalbard over the last 20 years. Conversely, circulation changes during summer include a strengthened Greenland blocking high which leads to more frequent cold air advection from the central Arctic towards Svalbard, and less frequent air mass origins in the lower latitudes of the North Atlantic. Hence, circulation changes during winter are shown to have an amplifying effect on the recent warming on Svalbard, while summer circulation changes tend to mask warming.
An observational case study using upper air soundings from the AWIPEV research station in Ny-Ålesund during May–June 2017 underlines that such circulation changes during summer are associated with tropospheric anomalies in temperature, humidity and boundary layer height.
In the last part of the analysis, the regional representativeness of the above described changes around Svalbard for the broader Arctic is investigated. Therefore, the terms in the diagnostic temperature equation in the Arctic-wide lower troposphere are examined for the Era-Interim atmospheric reanalysis product. Significant positive trends in diabatic heating rates, consistent with latent heat transfer to the atmosphere over regions of increasing ice melt, are found for all seasons over the Barents/Kara Seas, and in individual months in the vicinity of Svalbard. The above introduced warm (cold) advection trends during winter (summer) on Svalbard are successfully reproduced. Regarding winter, they are regionally confined to the Barents Sea and Fram Strait, between 70°–80°N, resembling a unique feature in the whole Arctic. Summer cold advection trends are confined to the area between eastern Greenland and Franz Josef Land, enclosing Svalbard.
This dissertation investigates the impact of the economic and fiscal crisis starting in 2008 on EU climate policy-making. While the overall number of adopted greenhouse gas emission reduction policies declined in the crisis aftermath, EU lawmakers decided to introduce new or tighten existing regulations in some important policy domains. Existing knowledge about the crisis impact on EU legislative decision-making cannot explain these inconsistencies. In response, this study develops an actor-centred conceptual framework based on rational choice institutionalism that provides a micro-level link to explain how economic crises translate into altered policy-making patterns. The core theoretical argument draws on redistributive conflicts, arguing that tensions between ‘beneficiaries’ and ‘losers’ of a regulatory initiative intensify during economic crises and spill over to the policy domain. To test this hypothesis and using social network analysis, this study analyses policy processes in three case studies: The introduction of carbon dioxide emission limits for passenger cars, the expansion of the EU Emissions Trading System to aviation, and the introduction of a regulatory framework for biofuels. The key finding is that an economic shock causes EU policy domains to polarise politically, resulting in intensified conflict and more difficult decision-making. The results also show that this process of political polarisation roots in the industry that is the subject of the regulation, and that intergovernmental bargaining among member states becomes more important, but also more difficult in times of crisis.
Interactions and feedbacks between tectonics, climate, and upper plate architecture control basin geometry, relief, and depositional systems. The Andes is part of a longlived continental margin characterized by multiple tectonic cycles which have strongly modified the Andean upper plate architecture. In the Andean retroarc, spatiotemporal variations in the structure of the upper plate and tectonic regimes have resulted in marked along-strike variations in basin geometry, stratigraphy, deformational style, and mountain belt morphology. These along-strike variations include high-elevation plateaus (Altiplano and Puna) associated with a thin-skin fold-and-thrust-belt and thick-skin deformation in broken foreland basins such as the Santa Barbara system and the Sierras Pampeanas. At the confluence of the Puna Plateau, the Santa Barbara system and the Sierras Pampeanas, major along-strike changes in upper plate architecture, mountain belt morphology, basement exhumation, and deformation style can be recognized. I have used a source to sink approach to unravel the spatiotemporal tectonic evolution of the Andean retroarc between 26 and 28°S. I obtained a large low-temperature thermochronology data set from basement units which includes apatite fission track, apatite U-Th-Sm/He, and zircon U-Th/He (ZHe) cooling ages. Stratigraphic descriptions of Miocene units were temporally constrained by U-Pb LA-ICP-MS zircon ages from interbedded pyroclastic material.
Modeled ZHe ages suggest that the basement of the study area was exhumed during the Famatinian orogeny (550-450 Ma), followed by a period of relative tectonic quiescence during the Paleozoic and the Triassic. The basement experienced horst exhumation during the Cretaceous development of the Salta rift. After initial exhumation, deposition of thick Cretaceous syn-rift strata caused reheating of several basement blocks within the Santa Barbara system. During the Eocene-Oligocene, the Andean compressional setting was responsible for the exhumation of several disconnected basement blocks. These exhumed blocks were separated by areas of low relief, in which humid climate and low erosion rates facilitated the development of etchplains on the crystalline basement. The exhumed basement blocks formed an Eocene to Oligocene broken foreland basin in the back-bulge depozone of the Andean foreland. During the Early Miocene, foreland basin strata filled up the preexisting Paleogene topography. The basement blocks in lower relief positions were reheated; associated geothermal gradients were higher than 25°C/km. Miocene volcanism was responsible for lateral variations on the amount of reheating along the Campo-Arenal basin. Around 12 Ma, a new deformational phase modified the drainage network and fragmented the lacustrine system. As deformation and rock uplift continued, the easily eroded sedimentary cover was efficiently removed and reworked by an ephemeral fluvial system, preventing the development of significant relief. After ~6 Ma, the low erodibility of the basement blocks which began to be exposed caused relief increase, leading to the development of stable fluvial systems. Progressive relief development modified atmospheric circulation, creating a rainfall gradient. After 3 Ma, orographic rainfall and high relief lead to the development of proximal fluvial-gravitational depositional systems in the surrounding basins.
Organic matter deposited in ancient, ice-rich permafrost sediments is vulnerable to climate change and may contribute to the future release of greenhouse gases; it is thus important to get a better characterization of the plant organic matter within such sediments. From a Late Quaternary permafrost sediment core from the Buor Khaya Peninsula, we analysed plant-derived sedimentary ancient DNA (sedaDNA) to identify the taxonomic composition of plant organic matter, and undertook palynological analysis to assess the environmental conditions during deposition. Using sedaDNA, we identified 154 taxa and from pollen and non-pollen palynomorphs we identified 83 taxa. In the deposits dated between 54 and 51 kyr BP, sedaDNA records a diverse low-centred polygon plant community including recurring aquatic pond vegetation while from the pollen record we infer terrestrial open-land vegetation with relatively dry environmental conditions at a regional scale. A fluctuating dominance of either terrestrial or swamp and aquatic taxa in both proxies allowed the local hydrological development of the polygon to be traced. In deposits dated between 11.4 and 9.7 kyr BP (13.4-11.1 cal kyr BP), sedaDNA shows a taxonomic turnover to moist shrub tundra and a lower taxonomic richness compared to the older samples. Pollen also records a shrub tundra community, mostly seen as changes in relative proportions of the most dominant taxa, while a decrease in taxonomic richness was less pronounced compared to sedaDNA. Our results show the advantages of using sedaDNA in combination with palynological analyses when macrofossils are rarely preserved. The high resolution of the sedaDNA record provides a detailed picture of the taxonomic composition of plant-derived organic matter throughout the core, and palynological analyses prove valuable by allowing for inferences of regional environmental conditions.
The isotopic composition of water in ice sheets is extensively used to infer past climate changes. In low-accumulation regions their interpretation is, however, challenged by poorly constrained effects that may influence the initial isotope signal during and after deposition of the snow. This is reflected in snow-pit isotope data from Kohnen Station, Antarctica, which exhibit a seasonal cycle but also strong interannual variations that contradict local temperature observations. These inconsistencies persist even after averaging many profiles and are thus not explained by local stratigraphic noise. Previous studies have suggested that post-depositional processes may significantly influence the isotopic composition of East Antarctic firn. Here, we investigate the importance of post-depositional processes within the open-porous firn (greater than or similar to 10 cm depth) at Kohnen Station by separating spatial from temporal variability. To this end, we analyse 22 isotope profiles obtained from two snow trenches and examine the temporal isotope modifications by comparing the new data with published trench data extracted 2 years earlier. The initial isotope profiles undergo changes over time due to downward advection, firn diffusion and densification in magnitudes consistent with independent estimates. Beyond that, we find further modifications of the original isotope record to be unlikely or small in magnitude (<< 1 parts per thousand RMSD). These results show that the discrepancy between local temperatures and isotopes most likely originates from spatially coherent processes prior to or during deposition, such as precipitation intermittency or systematic isotope modifications acting on drifting or loose surface snow.