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Institute
- Institut für Umweltwissenschaften und Geographie (1439) (remove)
The knowledge of the largest expected earthquake magnitude in a region is one of the key issues in probabilistic seismic hazard calculations and the estimation of worst-case scenarios. Earthquake catalogues are the most informative source of information for the inference of earthquake magnitudes. We analysed the earthquake catalogue for Central Asia with respect to the largest expected magnitudes m(T) in a pre-defined time horizon T-f using a recently developed statistical methodology, extended by the explicit probabilistic consideration of magnitude errors. For this aim, we assumed broad error distributions for historical events, whereas the magnitudes of recently recorded instrumental earthquakes had smaller errors. The results indicate high probabilities for the occurrence of large events (M >= 8), even in short time intervals of a few decades. The expected magnitudes relative to the assumed maximum possible magnitude are generally higher for intermediate-depth earthquakes (51-300 km) than for shallow events (0-50 km). For long future time horizons, for example, a few hundred years, earthquakes with M >= 8.5 have to be taken into account, although, apart from the 1889 Chilik earthquake, it is probable that no such event occurred during the observation period of the catalogue.
Earthquake catalogs are probably the most informative data source about spatiotemporal seismicity evolution. The catalog quality in one of the most active seismogenic zones in the world, Japan, is excellent, although changes in quality arising, for example, from an evolving network are clearly present. Here, we seek the best estimate for the largest expected earthquake in a given future time interval from a combination of historic and instrumental earthquake catalogs. We extend the technique introduced by Zoller et al. (2013) to estimate the maximum magnitude in a time window of length T-f for earthquake catalogs with varying level of completeness. In particular, we consider the case in which two types of catalogs are available: a historic catalog and an instrumental catalog. This leads to competing interests with respect to the estimation of the two parameters from the Gutenberg-Richter law, the b-value and the event rate lambda above a given lower-magnitude threshold (the a-value). The b-value is estimated most precisely from the frequently occurring small earthquakes; however, the tendency of small events to cluster in aftershocks, swarms, etc. violates the assumption of a Poisson process that is used for the estimation of lambda. We suggest addressing conflict by estimating b solely from instrumental seismicity and using large magnitude events from historic catalogs for the earthquake rate estimation. Applying the method to Japan, there is a probability of about 20% that the maximum expected magnitude during any future time interval of length T-f = 30 years is m >= 9.0. Studies of different subregions in Japan indicates high probabilities for M 8 earthquakes along the Tohoku arc and relatively low probabilities in the Tokai, Tonankai, and Nankai region. Finally, for scenarios related to long-time horizons and high-confidence levels, the maximum expected magnitude will be around 10.
Species respond to environmental change by dynamically adjusting their geographical ranges. Robust predictions of these changes are prerequisites to inform dynamic and sustainable conservation strategies. Correlative species distribution models (SDMs) relate species’ occurrence records to prevailing environmental factors to describe the environmental niche. They have been widely applied in global change context as they have comparably low data requirements and allow for rapid assessments of potential future species’ distributions. However, due to their static nature, transient responses to environmental change are essentially ignored in SDMs. Furthermore, neither dispersal nor demographic processes and biotic interactions are explicitly incorporated. Therefore, it has often been suggested to link statistical and mechanistic modelling approaches in order to make more realistic predictions of species’ distributions for scenarios of environmental change. In this thesis, I present two different ways of such linkage. (i) Mechanistic modelling can act as virtual playground for testing statistical models and allows extensive exploration of specific questions. I promote this ‘virtual ecologist’ approach as a powerful evaluation framework for testing sampling protocols, analyses and modelling tools. Also, I employ such an approach to systematically assess the effects of transient dynamics and ecological properties and processes on the prediction accuracy of SDMs for climate change projections. That way, relevant mechanisms are identified that shape the species’ response to altered environmental conditions and which should hence be considered when trying to project species’ distribution through time. (ii) I supplement SDM projections of potential future habitat for black grouse in Switzerland with an individual-based population model. By explicitly considering complex interactions between habitat availability and demographic processes, this allows for a more direct assessment of expected population response to environmental change and associated extinction risks. However, predictions were highly variable across simulations emphasising the need for principal evaluation tools like sensitivity analysis to assess uncertainty and robustness in dynamic range predictions. Furthermore, I identify data coverage of the environmental niche as a likely cause for contrasted range predictions between SDM algorithms. SDMs may fail to make reliable predictions for truncated and edge niches, meaning that portions of the niche are not represented in the data or niche edges coincide with data limits. Overall, my thesis contributes to an improved understanding of uncertainty factors in predictions of range dynamics and presents ways how to deal with these. Finally I provide preliminary guidelines for predictive modelling of dynamic species’ response to environmental change, identify key challenges for future research and discuss emerging developments.
The innovative dual-purpose chicken approach aims at contributing to the transition towards sustainable poultry production by avoiding the culling of male chickens. To successfully integrate sustainability aspects into innovation, goal congruency among actors and clearly communicating the added value within the actor network and to consumers is needed. The challenge of identifying common sustainability goals calls for decision support tools. The objectives of our research were to investigate whether the tool could assist in improving communication and marketing with respect to sustainability and optimizing the value chain organization. Three actor groups participated in the tool application, in which quantitative and qualitative data were collected. The results showed that there were manifold sustainability goals within the innovation network, but only some goals overlapped, and the perception of their implementation also diverged. While easily marketable goals such as ‘animal welfare’ were perceived as being largely implemented, economic goals were prioritized less often, and the implementation was perceived as being rather low. By visualizing congruencies and differences in the goals, the tool helped identify fields of action, such as improved information flows and prompted thinking processes. We conclude that the tool is useful for managing complex decision processes with several actors involved.
The innovative dual-purpose chicken approach aims at contributing to the transition towards sustainable poultry production by avoiding the culling of male chickens. To successfully integrate sustainability aspects into innovation, goal congruency among actors and clearly communicating the added value within the actor network and to consumers is needed. The challenge of identifying common sustainability goals calls for decision support tools. The objectives of our research were to investigate whether the tool could assist in improving communication and marketing with respect to sustainability and optimizing the value chain organization. Three actor groups participated in the tool application, in which quantitative and qualitative data were collected. The results showed that there were manifold sustainability goals within the innovation network, but only some goals overlapped, and the perception of their implementation also diverged. While easily marketable goals such as ‘animal welfare’ were perceived as being largely implemented, economic goals were prioritized less often, and the implementation was perceived as being rather low. By visualizing congruencies and differences in the goals, the tool helped identify fields of action, such as improved information flows and prompted thinking processes. We conclude that the tool is useful for managing complex decision processes with several actors involved.
Nature-based solutions (NBS) are inspired and supported by nature but designed by humans. Historically, governmental stakeholders have aimed to control nature using a top-down approach; more recently, environmental governance has shifted to collaborative planning. Polycentric governance and co-creation procedures, which include a large spectrum of stakeholders, are assumed to be more effective in the management of public goods than traditional approaches. In this context, NBS projects should benefit from strong collaborative governance models, and the European Union is facilitating and encouraging such models. While some theoretical approaches exist, setting-up the NBS co-creation process (namely co-design and co-implementation) currently relies mostly on self-organized stakeholders rather than on strategic decisions. As such, systematic methods to identify relevant stakeholders seem to be crucial to enable higher planning efficiency, reduce bottlenecks and time needed for planning, designing, and implementing NBS. In this context, this contribution is based on the analysis of 16 NBS and 359 stakeholders. Real-life constellations are compared to theoretical typologies, and a systematic stakeholder mapping method to support co-creation is presented. Rather than making one-fit-all statements about the "right" stakeholders, the contribution provides insights for those "in charge" to strategically consider who might be involved at each stage of the NBS project.
We traced diatom composition and diversity through time using diatom-derived sedimentary ancient DNA (sedaDNA) from eastern continental slope sediments off Kamchatka (North Pacific) by applying a short, diatom-specific marker on 63 samples in a DNA metabarcoding approach. The sequences were assigned to diatoms that are common in the area and characteristic of cold water. SedaDNA allowed us to observe shifts of potential lineages from species of the genus Chaetoceros that can be related to different climatic phases, suggesting that pre-adapted ecotypes might have played a role in the long-term success of species in areas of changing environmental conditions. These sedaDNA results complement our understanding of the long-term history of diatom assemblages and their general relationship to environmental conditions of the past. Sea-ice diatoms (Pauliella taeniata [Grunow] Round & Basson, Attheya septentrionalis [ostrup] R. M. Crawford and Nitzschia frigida [Grunow]) detected during the late glacial and Younger Dryas are in agreement with previous sea-ice reconstructions. A positive correlation between pennate diatom richness and the sea-ice proxy IP25 suggests that sea ice fosters pennate diatom richness, whereas a negative correlation with June insolation and temperature points to unfavorable conditions during the Holocene. A sharp increase in proportions of freshwater diatoms at similar to 11.1 cal kyr BP implies the influence of terrestrial runoff and coincides with the loss of 42% of diatom sequence variants. We assume that reduced salinity at this time stabilized vertical stratification which limited the replenishment of nutrients in the euphotic zone.
The Fram Strait is an area with a relatively low and irregular distribution of diatom microfossils in surface sediments, and thus microfossil records are scarce, rarely exceed the Holocene, and contain sparse information about past richness and taxonomic composition. These attributes make the Fram Strait an ideal study site to test the utility of sedimentary ancient DNA (sedaDNA) metabarcoding. Amplifying a short, partial rbcL marker from samples of sediment core MSM05/5-712-2 resulted in 95.7 % of our sequences being assigned to diatoms across 18 different families, with 38.6 % of them being resolved to species and 25.8 % to genus level. Independent replicates show a high similarity of PCR products, especially in the oldest samples. Diatom sedaDNA richness is highest in the Late Weichselian and lowest in Mid- and Late Holocene samples. Taxonomic composition is dominated by cold-water and sea-ice-associated diatoms and suggests several reorganisations – after the Last Glacial Maximum, after the Younger Dryas, and after the Early and after the Mid-Holocene. Different sequences assigned to, amongst others, Chaetoceros socialis indicate the detectability of intra-specific diversity using sedaDNA. We detect no clear pattern between our diatom sedaDNA record and the previously published IP25 record of this core, although proportions of pennate diatoms increase with higher IP25 concentrations and proportions of Nitzschia cf. frigida exceeding 2 % of the assemblage point towards past sea-ice presence.